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Before the Bell

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Futures are trading lower this morning, which could lead to a potentially negative start this morning. The market rallied big-time on Thursday as the Dow managed to gain a little over 550 points, or nearly 7%, to finish at 8,835. The “snap-back” rally came on the heels of the market testing its 52-week lows. At one point, the Dow was trading at 7,947 and headed towards its October 10 low of 7,773. In fact, it was the first time the Dow had fallen below 8,000 since then.

The Dow had lost 14% in the week since Election Day and yesterday’s rally carried over to the other indexes. The Nasdaq rallied 100 points and finished at 1,596 while the S&P 500 closed higher by 60 points, to close at 911.

Intel (INTC, $14.43), General Motors (GM, $2.95) and Wal-Mart (WMT, $54.93) formed the three-headed monster that took the market lower in the morning as each had negative headlines. However, the market made a huge reversal, pushing stocks sharply higher after testing the lows reached last month.

I’m not buying.

The 1,000 point swing in the Dow is telling us something. The retest of the lows is telling us something. What that is remains to be seen. The next big battle for the bulls and bears will be the “G20″ meeting. The Group of 20 international leaders could bring decisions on how to help the troubled global financial system and there will be juicy details that bulls and bears will argue over which will move the market.

The cautious tone on Wall Street this morning could lead to another choppy session.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Tags: G20 meeting, General Motors, Intel, Wal-Mart
Posted in Market Analysis | No Comments »

Abercrombie, Kohl's Up Before Earnings

Thursday, August 14th, 2008

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $53.62, up $32.36) and Kohl’s (KSS, $48.85, up $1.26) have been all over the map this week as both companies prepare to announce earnings over the next 24 hours. Kohl’s will announce after the bell today, ANF before the bell Friday.

ANF has been trading between $50 and $55 all week and Kohl’s started the week at $51 and has traded as low as $46 (told you I didn’t trust Kohl’s). The volatility shows the 10% swings both stcoks can make so as I mentioned Monday, there’s no compelling reason to try and trade the retailers right now.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, $58.74, up $0.86) beat estimates by two cents today but issued the “cautious” word again. The stock is right where it started the week and Wall Street has once again kept Wal-Mart under $60.

JCPenney (JCP, $37.68, up $2.16) also reports before the bell Friday.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Tags: Abercrombie, JCPenney, Kohl's, Wal-Mart
Posted in Earnings | No Comments »

Wal-Mart Slips Despite Strong 1Q

Tuesday, May 13th, 2008

The market is always looking ahead. Even after a solid 1Q on higher sales and profits, Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, $56.65, down $1.37) spooked Wall Street after giving cautious 2Q guidance. The company reported income of $3.02 billion for the quarter, up nearly 7% from $2.82 billion, versus the same period last year. Revenue increased 10%, to $94.12 billion from $85.39 billion. Wal-Mart beat by a penny with earnings of $0.76 while analysts’ pegged estimates at $0.75 a share.

That was the good news. What Wall Street didn’t like was the company’s 2Q guidance in earnings of $0.78- $0.81 a share which was below earnings of $0.81 a share analysts had forecast. Wal-Mart said it was “unable to predict how the U.S. government stimulus checks will impact the marketplace.”

While this is true, Wal-Mart basically gave conservative guidance to cover itself in case consumer spending dips. If that were to happen, then Wal-Mart could miss next quarter’s numbers. Perhaps this was the thinking today as investors sold-off the stock. However, I believe the sell-off wasn’t warranted especially for a company that reported a quarter this good.

I had mentioned a week or so ago that Wal-Mart was trying to push through some key resistance levels at $60 but has failed each time it has gotten near this level. Today was no different although it should have been.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Tags: Earnings, guidance, Wal-Mart
Posted in Earnings | No Comments »

The Perfect Storm for Wal-Mart?

Tuesday, April 29th, 2008

With tax refunds hitting consumer pockets over the next few days and weeks, Wal-Mart (WMT, $57.96, up $0.61) could be the “Retailer of Choice” as people spend their rebates on the 800-pound discount gorilla. The company is offering to cash the checks for free and said no purchase will be necessary.

Wal-Mart offers the best of both worlds. It’s a one-stop hub for all of your household, grocery and even your gas needs. It’s no coincidence the company is cutting prices on key grocery and other items to coincide with the distribution of the rebates. Wal-Mart really wants to grab a bigger piece of the grocery segment although margins aren’t that great. However, Wal-Mart has superior cost-cutting structures in place that they are able to pass on to the customer.

Option traders are placing bets on the May 57.50 calls (WMTEY, $1.43, up $0.30) and the May 60 calls (WMTEL, $0.44, up $0.12) which are up 26% and 37%, respectively, that the stock continues higher.

Wal-Mart usually doesn’t make big, dramatic moves in its stock price but the bulls seem to want to push this one up to the $60 level. If Wal-Mart can get to $61 by May 16th then the May 57.50 and 60 calls would double from current levels with the 57.50′s returning slightly more. Either way, this is a very aggressive play on a stock that Wall Street has fallen back in love with.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Tags: perfect storm, tax refund, Wal-Mart
Posted in Hot Stocks | No Comments »

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SCOTT H.
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PETER G.
Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
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I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

C.J.
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SHAUN
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NOEL
I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

TODD F.
Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

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NOEL
“Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

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“I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

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“I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

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“I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

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“Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

ED
“I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

GREG
“Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

KEN
“Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

GARETT
“Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

TERENCE
“Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

Jan. 31 2012
Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

3/18/11
Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

2/3/12
Hi Rick,

I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

Hi Rick,

I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
my brokerage screen.

Posts Tagged ‘Wal-Mart’

Before the Bell

Abercrombie, Kohl's Up Before Earnings

Wal-Mart Slips Despite Strong 1Q

The Perfect Storm for Wal-Mart?