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Friday, January 27th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls made a run at the April/ May 2011 highs on Thursday and now the Wall Street pros and talking heads are calling for a pullback. Funny thing is, they have been calling for a correction all month. Economic news was decent and earnings once again came in above expectations but Wall Street was right, the market “pulled back” yesterday.
A bigger-than-expected jump in durable-goods orders, which came in at 3% versus expectations for a rise to 2%, was the good news. The semi-bad, unemployment edged-up as Initial Claims jumped 21,000 to 377,000. This is still below 400K and we said to watch this rise in January. If claims can stay below 400,000 in February, and maybe improve, then the bulls might still have some gas in the tank.
After 4 steps forward, housing took one step back as sales of new single-family homes fell for the first time in four months in December. This was expected in our books as homebuyers usually focus on the holidays in December if they didn’t rush to get into the new house by Christmas or knew the paperwork wouldn’t be finished in time.
If we can get some rebound numbers in February, which starts next Wednesday, then the rally might have further to run. It’s been a warm winter here on the Left Coast this year.
As far as the official numbers -
The Dow dropped a double-deuce (22 points), or 0.2%, to close at 12,734. The blue-chips reached a peak of 12,842, which triggered our 12,800 target we gave back in November, while the low was 12,695.
The S&P 500 slipped 8 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 1,318. The index kissed 1,333 but traded outside our 1,325-1,350 zone after touching a low of 1,313 with an hour to go in yesterday’s session.
The Nasdaq fell 13 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 2,805. Tech traded up to 2,834 and held our 2,800 target after kissing 2,794. We have said to watch 2,887 which is the 52-week high for the index and have mentioned a run to 3,000 could come on fluff.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 18.57, up 0.26) traded down to 16.80 at the open and we have been saying for months the VIX was would move from the mid-30’s, down to 22.50, and then down to 15 on a continued run by the bulls. The “fluff’ should get the VIX down to 15 but we also realize the VIX could trade down to 12. For news subscribers, a declining VIX is bullish.
A few weeks ago we said to be prepared for a pullback in February which doesn’t start until next Wednesday and the first full week of February isn’t until next Monday. With ALL of the suit-and-ties, talking heads, and everyone else going on record this week and saying this week is the top, maybe the market ignores them until February officially starts.
This leaves a lot of room for a run past resistance and the “fluff” could give Wall Street fund managers fits because they are already underperforming the market. This could also get some money off the sidelines from individual investors. The market could also get some positive Greece news today or next week which could also extend a possible 4-week rally into next but the bulls have to hold their lead today which we will cover in the afternoon update.
Then again, the market could pull back but it will take a lot to change the TREND and we have support pegged.
We have closed 3 more winning call option trades this week for profits of 114%, 58% and 107%. We may close one or two more trades today and our 2012 CLOSED Track Record is now 16-1 for the Daily and 7-0 for the Weekly Wrap. Let’s keep the momentum going.
Futures are lower as we head to press and look like this: Dow (-55), S&P 500 (-6), Nasdaq (-7). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, VIX, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off
Thursday, January 26th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
Although we do a lot of homework, it’s amazing how easy it has been to bet against the Wall Street pros and Debbie Downers this year and since last August. We reminded you yesterday in early November when the Dow was at 11,800 and on the verge of breaking down like a rented mule the blue-chips would still rally 1,000 points.
We have also been saying a close above 1,300 on the S&P 500 would get the index to 1,325-1,350 on fluff. We reminded readers Sunday night in our Weekly Wrap it was only a 2% move from Friday’s closing price to our top-end short-term target.
We also said yesterday, it would be interesting if Tech could muster a close above 2,800. We have been telling you to circle 2,887 which is the 52-week high for the Nasdaq and to pencil-in a possible trip to 3K for the index.
We said in October when the VIX was above 30 it was headed to 22.50. From there we said a run to 15 could come.
The market is making us look like geniuses right now (although it can humble us in a New York minute) and as an option trader, it’s important to strike the iron while it is hot. No one knows where the market is headed today, tomorrow, or next week but chart work does help. Following the VIX does help. Listening to the talking heads get it all wrong does help.
We are saying this because we have the best job in the world and more and more of you are learning our trading style through our option trading manual and videos which is awesome to see. Like we say, what else are you going to do when you retire? If you learn to trade with us now, the education we will give you will last a lifetime. Our special offer will expire at the end of the month and we give you the details below…
The market surged higher on Wednesday but not the way Wall Street expected. Instead of Apple (AAPL, $446.66, up $26.25) leading the way, it was Big Ben who said the Fed was ready to turn on the money presses if needed. In fact, here was his money quote that put the bulls in a frizzy:
“I don’t think we’re ready to declare that we’ve entered a new, stronger phase at this point. If the situation continues with inflation below target and unemployment declining at a rate which is very, very slow, then the logic of our framework says we should be looking for ways to do more”.
Bingo. The rest of the trading session was bear history.
The Dow jumped 81 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 12,757. The blue-chips traded down to 12,580 which stretched short-term support at 12,600. The high for the day was 12,778, or a double-deuce (22 points) from our 12,800 target. There is room for a run to 13,000 but we are getting nervous.
The S&P gained 11 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 1,326. The low for the session was 1,307 which was slightly above support at 1,300. The high was 1,328 and the index closed within our 1,325-1,350 zone. There is a chance 1,375 comes into play put the market genie may not grant us that wish before a pullback comes.
The Nasdaq added 32 points, or 1.1%, to end at 2,818. Tech traded up to 2,822 and is 70 points away from making new 52-week highs. The bulls will need to add another 2% without Apple’s help which could be asking for a lot unless shares are headed to $500 by month’s end.
Special Note: Our one-year deal will expire in 6 days and here are the details. If you sign-up for a 1-year membership to our Daily newsletter, we will include a 1-year subscription to the Weekly Wrap which is priced the same as our Daily. We will also include our option trading manual “How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks” at no charge (an $899 value!) and shipping is on the house. The course also includes our “Momentum Stocks Watch List” which details over 1,000 stocks and dozens of sectors. Your subscription will also include our monthly/ bi-monthly videos which cover chart work, current trades, and possible new ones we don’t mention in the newsletter or Watch List.
We have set up a special tab on our subscription page where you will see both the Daily and the Weekly in a package deal that reads Annual Subscription to Daily and Weekly Wrap.
https://secure.momentumoptionstrading.com/amember/signup.php
Do the paperwork and we will send out our option trading courses to you within 24 hours and provide you access to our videos right away.
The Weekly Wrap went 16-0 in 2011 and is 7-0 to start 2012. The winning trades for January were: SGMS +6%, VVUS +17%, F +8%, AA +7%, CLNE +27%, DNDN +18%, MGM +19%.
In 2011, we traded Vivus 3 times for the Weekly Wrap for gains of 18%, 14%, and 17% as the stock stated the year at $9.73 and ended at $9.75. Now it’s at $12 and we are still riding the wave. By writing call options on 4 different options trades ( 1 for 2012), we were able to book profits of $122, $130, $125 and $161. Folks, that is $538 in profits on a stock that stayed flat or a return of 55% using call options.
The savings on this package is 67% and we will not offer this deal again in 2012. For those of you on monthly memberships, time to super-size. Tell your friends.
We have 2 NEW TRADES we are releasing this morning and we are going to try to get them at the open using limit prices. Subscribers, check the Members Area for details and keep your boots to the ground. We have 10 other current trades we are trying to lock down profits in.
Tags: APPL, Bernanke, VIX
Posted in Apple, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011
8:45am (EST)
Europe’s head honcho’s are falling faster than dominoes as Greece’s Prime Minster dropped first followed by Italy’s – once their austerity budgets pass. Unfortunately, the US will have to wait until 2012 to get some new knuckleheads in office but hopefully they are business people who can create jobs. In any event, we mentioned yesterday in our midday update the action has been hot in the afternoon and the bulls plowed ahead right on cue.
The Dow rolled higher by 102 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 12,170. The index reached a peak of 12,187 and we said to watch for a run to 12,200 first, followed by 12,350.
The S&P jumped 15 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 1,275-and change. The high was 1,277 and we penciled-in 1,300 Sunday night/ Monday morning in our Weekly Wrap.
The Nasdaq popped 32 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,727. We said a run to 2,750 was possible this week and we are halfway there – with the bears living on a prayer.
The push to the next layer of resistance was nice but futures are pointing towards a nasty open this morning which means we will test support again. We had 2 new trades we were looking to get into this morning but let’s see how the action plays out.
Also, be on the lookout for possible Trade Alerts if we close any current recommendations or need to make any adjustments. For those of you who are trading course members, we did a video late last night that is 25 minutes long so we wanted to send today’s morning issue out a little early so you have plenty of time to prepare for today’s action.
As we head to press, here’s the deal: Dow futures (-223); S&P 500 futures (-30); Nasdaq 100 futures (-45).
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, November 8th, 2011
2:10pm (EST)
The action today has been mixed as the bulls took the early lead to push the market higher while the bears are playing catch-up. Wall Street seemed a little uneasy this morning as traders waited on a key vote in Italy’s parliament which ousted its Prime Minister. Silvio Berlusconi, who has a history of shady doings and dealings and he isn’t seen in the brightest light, failed to win an absolute majority which was really no big surprise – although he did win ratification of the budget.
The big concern for Italy will be who replaces him. It is just the latest chapter in the eurozone debt crisis which we said could dominate the headlines for the remainder of 2011.
The indexes have stayed in a tight trading range today as a result which could last into the close unless there is a final hour rally by bulls which we think is likely.
The Dow is up 11 points to 12,079 while the S&P 500 is higher by 3 points to 1,264. The Nasdaq is showing a 10 point pop and is at 2,705 which is bullish.
We are close to adding a few more new trades but we want to close some current ones out, first. We are on the verge of taking profits on a couple more names so we don’t need to push the action. For those of you who have our trading course, we will be doing a video tonight on a few trades that could make our Watch List in the next day or two.
Remember, upgrade to a 1-year membership, save money (you save 25% over the monthly rate), and get our trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, at no charge, along with our ongoing videos. Shipping is also on the house.
Let’s get ready for a push higher, subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, November 7th, 2011
1:05pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so our commentary will be short today as we have an open trade with headline news due out after the bell. Not only has today been busy, we expect a super busy week so stay on your toes.
The bulls have been a little lazy today after jumping out to an early lead. Perhaps they sent some of the herd out to test the waters but the bears appear ready to fight.
The Dow has trade above 12,000 but is down 78 points to 11,904 while the S&P is off by 9 points to 1,244. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points and is at 2,656.
The Financial sector is weighing on the market as Greece seems to be on the back burner while Italy has moved to the front on Europe’s hot stove. We used the weakness to sell our only open put option recommendation for a 33% gain but they continue to move higher as shares move lower.
We will be back in the morning with a full update but the action is inside. We are taking HALF profits on another trade that is up 80% so pay attention to our comments. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX
Posted in Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off
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Bulls Challenge Highs, Bears Finish on Top
Friday, January 27th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls made a run at the April/ May 2011 highs on Thursday and now the Wall Street pros and talking heads are calling for a pullback. Funny thing is, they have been calling for a correction all month. Economic news was decent and earnings once again came in above expectations but Wall Street was right, the market “pulled back” yesterday.
A bigger-than-expected jump in durable-goods orders, which came in at 3% versus expectations for a rise to 2%, was the good news. The semi-bad, unemployment edged-up as Initial Claims jumped 21,000 to 377,000. This is still below 400K and we said to watch this rise in January. If claims can stay below 400,000 in February, and maybe improve, then the bulls might still have some gas in the tank.
After 4 steps forward, housing took one step back as sales of new single-family homes fell for the first time in four months in December. This was expected in our books as homebuyers usually focus on the holidays in December if they didn’t rush to get into the new house by Christmas or knew the paperwork wouldn’t be finished in time.
If we can get some rebound numbers in February, which starts next Wednesday, then the rally might have further to run. It’s been a warm winter here on the Left Coast this year.
As far as the official numbers -
The Dow dropped a double-deuce (22 points), or 0.2%, to close at 12,734. The blue-chips reached a peak of 12,842, which triggered our 12,800 target we gave back in November, while the low was 12,695.
The S&P 500 slipped 8 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 1,318. The index kissed 1,333 but traded outside our 1,325-1,350 zone after touching a low of 1,313 with an hour to go in yesterday’s session.
The Nasdaq fell 13 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 2,805. Tech traded up to 2,834 and held our 2,800 target after kissing 2,794. We have said to watch 2,887 which is the 52-week high for the index and have mentioned a run to 3,000 could come on fluff.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 18.57, up 0.26) traded down to 16.80 at the open and we have been saying for months the VIX was would move from the mid-30’s, down to 22.50, and then down to 15 on a continued run by the bulls. The “fluff’ should get the VIX down to 15 but we also realize the VIX could trade down to 12. For news subscribers, a declining VIX is bullish.
A few weeks ago we said to be prepared for a pullback in February which doesn’t start until next Wednesday and the first full week of February isn’t until next Monday. With ALL of the suit-and-ties, talking heads, and everyone else going on record this week and saying this week is the top, maybe the market ignores them until February officially starts.
This leaves a lot of room for a run past resistance and the “fluff” could give Wall Street fund managers fits because they are already underperforming the market. This could also get some money off the sidelines from individual investors. The market could also get some positive Greece news today or next week which could also extend a possible 4-week rally into next but the bulls have to hold their lead today which we will cover in the afternoon update.
Then again, the market could pull back but it will take a lot to change the TREND and we have support pegged.
We have closed 3 more winning call option trades this week for profits of 114%, 58% and 107%. We may close one or two more trades today and our 2012 CLOSED Track Record is now 16-1 for the Daily and 7-0 for the Weekly Wrap. Let’s keep the momentum going.
Futures are lower as we head to press and look like this: Dow (-55), S&P 500 (-6), Nasdaq (-7). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, VIX, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off