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Thursday, May 10th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls were behind the 8-ball again on Wednesday as the bears pushed March lows at the open. The rebound came on word Greece would get its latest schedule debt bailout which gave the bulls energy. We won’t waste our words on geopolitical news this morning but the end result was a lower high and a lower low for the market which is bearish.
The Dow fell 97 points, or 0.8%, to close at 12,835. The blue-chips traded to a low of 12,748 (-184 points) but recovered half their losses to finish above support at 12,800.
The S&P 500 fell 9 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 1,354. The index kissed a low of 1,343 which opens the door for a test down to 1,325-1,300. The selling pressure will pick up steam on a drop under 1,340 if support at 1,350 is tested again today.
The Nasdaq gave back a 12-pack, or 0.4%, to end at 2,934. Tech once again traded down to exactly 2,900 and could see an accelerated sell-off down to 2,850-2,800 if the bears can get under this level.
The Russell 2000 slipped 4 points and closed at 788 but touched a low of 781. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX, 20.08, up 1.03) closed above 20 and was up 5% for the session after reaching a peak of 21.59. A move above 22.5 could cause chaos.
Cisco Systems (CSCO, $18.78, up $0.07) reported earnings after the bell last night and beat Wall Street’s estimates, but as we have seen with a number of other companies, Cisco guided lower for the coming quarter. Shares were down 9% in extended trading and were at $17.
We have added 4 charts this morning. Two are for the Dow and S&P, the other 2 charts are for our NEW TRADES we are trying to get into at the open.
As we head to press, futures look like this: Dow (+40), S&P 500 (+9), Nasdaq 100 (+11).
Subscribers, please use limit orders to get the best fills.
Tags: Cisco System earnings, CSCO earnings, Option Trades, VIX
Posted in Earnings, VIX | Comments Off
Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
:00am (EST)
The bulls had a chance to turn April into a winning month but failed to hold their momentum following last week’s 4-day rally.
The Dow fell 15 points, or 0.1%, to close at 13,213. The blue-chips actually added a point for the month but traded in the red all session long while hitting a low of 13,176 late in the day.
The S&P gave back 5 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 1,397. The index kissed a low of 1,394 and finished April with an 11 point loss after giving up the 1,400 level shortly after the open.
The Nasdaq declined 23 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 3,046. We were looking for a close below 3,050 as Tech traded to a low of 3,043. The index fell 45 points, or 1.5%, in April after starting at 3,090.
The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 17.15, up 0.83) jumped 5% on Monday and reached a peak of 17.41.
With the Dow just above 13,200; the S&P and Nasdaq just below 1,400 and 3,050; and with the VIX below 17.50 – we still have mixed signals. We were specific in what clues we will be looking for that establishes the next trend in our Weekly Wrap and Monday Morning Outlook so let’s stay patient and focused.
Futures are showing a slightly higher open this morning and look like this: Dow (+12); S&P (+1); Nasdaq 100 (+1).
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates. We have also added some new candidates to the Watch List.
Tags: S&P Volatility Index, VIX, Weekly Stock Market Wrap
Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, April 18th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market soared on Tuesday after better-than-expected earnings here at home while Spain’s bond auction attracted some interest. This lead to an extended rally as the bulls recovered the first wave of support while pushing resistance.
The Dow gained 194 points, or 1.5%, to close at 13,115. The blue-chips easily cleared 13,000 and made a run at 13,200 after kissing a high of 13,131. A move back above 13,200 would get 13,500 into play again.
The S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.6%, to finish at 1,390. The index surpassed 1,375 at the open and traded to a high of 1,392 intraday. The next level of resistance is strong at 1,400 but if cleared the bulls could make another run at 1,425-1,450.
The Nasdaq popped 54 points, or 1.8%, to settle at 3,042. Tech reached a peak of 3,052 but closed below the 3,050 which seems to be the new battle ground between the bulls and bears.
The S&P Volatility index (VIX, 18.46, down 1.09) fell nearly 6% after bottoming at 17.58. The bulls were hoping to get below 17.50 by the close while the bears will try to push 20 again.
Futures are showing a slightly lower open this morning and look like this: Dow (-43); S&P 500 (-5); Nasdaq (-6). We opened a number of new trades yesterday so let’s go see where we are at. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow blue-chip stocks, S&P Volatility Index, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, April 17th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Monday as the Dow held its gains while the S&P and Nasdaq finished in the red but off their lows for the day. This doesn’t sound too bad on the surface but the major averages are forming some awful bearish charts so let’s go over the numbers and what we are seeing.
The Dow gained 72 points, or 0.56%, to finish at 12,921. The blue-chip traded to a high of 12,986 but the peak was a point below last Thursday’s high and 13,000 has been a brick wall. The low for the day was 12,850 which is just above short-term support but the continued failure at 13K is a sign of weakness until cleared.
The S&P 500 fell three-quarters of a point, or 0.05%, to end at 1,369. The index traded to a high of 1,379 at the open which was just above resistance at 1,375. The low for the day was 1,365 which keeps 1,350 in play. We talked about the importance of the bears getting a win on Monday, albeit small, it was still a negative close for the index. This was the first time the S&P closed down on back-to-back Friday/ Monday’s. Although the market was closed for Good Friday, we counted the negative close on the Thursday before. This was good evidence going forward.
The Nasdaq fell double-deuces, or 0.76%, to settle at 2,988. The pop back above 3,000 was short-lived as the index traded down to 2,975 about an hour into the session. Although the talking heads were saying Google and Apple can be blamed for much of the weakness, we also have to remember these 2 Tech giants led the bulls’ charge higher for 6 months. Tech is now at its mid-March lows and if 2,973 is taken out a test to 2,950-2,900 could come quickly.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 19.55, flat) traded above 20 again, to 20.42, while the low was 18.60. The major indexes have made lower highs and lower lows for much of April while the VIX is making higher highs and higher lows. Both are bearish signals.
Earnings kick into second gear this week and although companies are beating Wall Street’s estimates for the most part, many firms are missing on their revenue results. There were few earnings warnings coming into the season and we should get a clearer picture this week which sectors are thriving and which ones could suffer on an economic slowdown.
The scales have been tipping in the bears favor but we still have to guard against snap-back rallies, dead cat bounces, and a possible trading range. The bears still have another layer or two of support they must crack but so far our put options trades have been doing extremely well.
We could have a busy morning as we are looking to take profits in a few trades that could hit triple-digit returns. We continue to feel this next few months are going to offer some exciting opportunities so stay locked-and-loaded on possible NEW TRADES as well.
Futures are showing a decent pop at the open as Dow futures are up 63 points to 12,913 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 7 points to 1,370. The Nasdaq 100 futures are advancing 12 points to 2,675. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: earnings warnings, GOOG, S&P Volatility Index, VIX
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Thursday, April 5th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bears continued with their assault on the bulls Wednesday and made a strong push towards the second wave of support after pushing the market lower by 1%. Although there was a slight bounce off the bottom, the bears clearly have the momentum going into the last trading session of the week as the market is closed on Friday.
The Dow dropped 125 points, or 0.95%, to close at 13,074. The blue-chips traded to a low of 13,020 but the bulls were able to hold 13,000 which has been strong support since late March. A close below this level would bring 12,800-12,750 into the picture. A close above 13,200 today would be bullish for next week.
The S&P 500 fell 14 points, or 1%, to settle at 1,398.96. The index finished below the 1,400 level after testing a low of 1,394 which puts 1,375 back on the radar. If the bulls can manage a 2-point bucket by the close we can at least say they held support although they will lose the week.
The Nasdaq gave back 45 points, or 1.5%, to end at 3,068. Tech touched a low of 3,052 and we have been warning our subscribers to watch for a break below 3,050. This level was tested 3 times a few weeks ago after the move past resistance and is now trying to hold as short-term support. A close above 3,100 would provide temporary relief if the bulls can manage a 1% pop today but that might be asking a bit too much.
The Russell 2000 declined 14 points, or 1.7%, to finish at 820. The index kissed 817 intraday and failed to hold 830 which is where the bulls need to finish at today. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 16.44, up 0.78) traded to a high of 17.74 which was enough for us to take notice. Although the VIX failed to close above 17.50, we said to watch this area as a possible warning sign for a trend change.
The market is still in a “range” but is on the verge of another big move. While this week’s action points to more bearishness, we are still waiting on confirmation. The bulls have been here before and still have some unfinished business but today’s action should give us a better idea on if there will be a breakdown, or, another bounce off support.
Futures are showing another lower start and look like this: Dow (-44); S&P 500 (-5), Nasdaq 100 (-2). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and be on the lookout for possible Profit Alerts today.
Tags: Dow support resistance, Russell 2000, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
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Bulls Rebound, Clear Support
Wednesday, April 18th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market soared on Tuesday after better-than-expected earnings here at home while Spain’s bond auction attracted some interest. This lead to an extended rally as the bulls recovered the first wave of support while pushing resistance.
The Dow gained 194 points, or 1.5%, to close at 13,115. The blue-chips easily cleared 13,000 and made a run at 13,200 after kissing a high of 13,131. A move back above 13,200 would get 13,500 into play again.
The S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.6%, to finish at 1,390. The index surpassed 1,375 at the open and traded to a high of 1,392 intraday. The next level of resistance is strong at 1,400 but if cleared the bulls could make another run at 1,425-1,450.
The Nasdaq popped 54 points, or 1.8%, to settle at 3,042. Tech reached a peak of 3,052 but closed below the 3,050 which seems to be the new battle ground between the bulls and bears.
The S&P Volatility index (VIX, 18.46, down 1.09) fell nearly 6% after bottoming at 17.58. The bulls were hoping to get below 17.50 by the close while the bears will try to push 20 again.
Futures are showing a slightly lower open this morning and look like this: Dow (-43); S&P 500 (-5); Nasdaq (-6). We opened a number of new trades yesterday so let’s go see where we are at. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow blue-chip stocks, S&P Volatility Index, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off