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Sunday, November 18th, 2012
11:00pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. Rosetta Stone (RST) – A Key to Understanding
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section. We are sorry for tonight’s delay but we wanted to cover everything before we went to press.)
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are doing well for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and is 24-0. Together, we are 146-54 (73% win rate) for both newsletters and we doubt you will find a hotter options trading service.
Our list of winners for 2012 include+475% on AXP,+462% on ARNA,+292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is now 26-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet returns include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Trade Update, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off
Monday, November 12th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“There are plenty of signals to sift through on trying to figure out where the market could be headed over the short-term but the Presidential Election will be the heaviest weight that could sink or swim either side. Like the election, there will be a loser and the trend could affect how the market trades for the rest of the year.
Economic news, earnings, and European headlines will be a risk and the headlines would seem to favor the bears going forward but it has been hard to count the bulls out all year long. We are on the fence on which way the market is headed but we wouldn’t be surprised either way which direction the market takes from here. The beauty is we could care less because our Portfolios are light and we like to play BOTH sides of the market and that gives us an edge over most investors and mutual fund managers.
When the market is going up, we favor call option trades. When the market is going down, we use put options to play the downside. We have outlined clear levels of support and resistance so we can relax a little until after the dust settles. There will be plenty of time and plenty of trades to get into so let’s look at how this week could play out.
We have said there is a chance for a “Romney Rally” and we aren’t sure if we coined this term back in August but it is picking up steam. There are different perceptions on which President is “better” for the stock market but the majority of investors and Wall Street believe an Obama win would be bullish. We don’t.
To start, an Obama second-term could cause further division between the Republicans and Democrats and we doubt the Fiscal Cliff would get resolved by year-end, especially with the holidays coming up. Romney has said he will solve these issues like he did when he was governor but stock market pundits believe if he gets rid of Ben Bernanke, the market will tank in 2013 because the Fed won’t be providing liquidity.
Our argument would be 12 million jobs like he promised and growing the economy at a much faster rate is better than doubling the national debt again which is what happened during Obama’s 4 years in the White House. In case anyone has forgotten, the U.S. owes $16 trillion. This is 16 plus 12 zeros, or $16,000,000,000,000, or a million millions.
The deficit is the single-most factor in deciding America’s future and Obama could push it to $20 trillion at his current rate. Oh, and Obama wants to INCREASE capital gains tax. Romney wants to eliminate them. Right on.
We could go on and on about who could win, who should win, what could happen or what will happen but in our minds, we would rather have a President that has run businesses and balanced budgets instead of going down the current road towards socialism.
As far as the technical picture, the indexes have held their 200-day MA’s except for Tech and all of them are having trouble clearing their 50-day MA’s. It would be hard to imagine the Dow, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 not falling below their 200-day MA’s simply because Tech has. However, if this is the bottom, overall, it will be easy to say they held if there is a rally. But that would be hindsight and that is why we feel a test below the 200-day MA’s will come over the near-term for all of the major indexes.
If there isn’t, and the market rallies maybe we can thank Mitt because we do feel he will be better for the market, but more importantly, America. If there is somehow a “tie” and lawyers get involved because the race is so tight, the market will suffer.
There has been one indicator, believe it or not, that has been incredibly accurate in picking the next President and has a 95% win rate.
We will leave you with what we call the Redskins Rule. Since we live and work near the nation’s Capital, it is hard not to follow the NFL Washington Redskins (and politics) and the Redskins Rule is something we always watch every 4 years. We weren’t around when the “indicator” started in 1940 mind you but it has an incredible accurate history of picking the next President.
Over the past 18 Washington Redskin’s HOME games before the Presidential election, the incumbent party (or the party that last won the popular vote) has won 17 of the times if the Redskins won. If the Redskins lost their home game before the election, the challenging party has won (Romney).
The Redskins played on Sunday and were at home pagainst the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins lost 13-21. This will be a historic week to say the least as we could get a Redskin Ruling, a Romney Rally, or a Barrack Breakdown”. (from 11/4/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
“Hail to Obama, hail victory, Democrats on the war path, fight for all D.C. – Theme song at the White House following Tuesday’s Presidential race…
The Redskin Rule was a fumble, there was a Romney Rally, but the devil was in the details as the market got the Barrack Breakdown. The bears pushed support on Monday as the Dow held 13,000 and the S&P 500 1,400. The bulls were able to rebound to start the week with a slight win which carried over into Tuesday.
The major indexes posted strong gains and cleared near-term resistance ahead of the Presidential Election but Tech looked weak and the closes were right at resistance. We watched the race and the futures throughout the night and we warned of a major selloff on Sunday night. Despite us being unhappy with the Head Zombie that got elected to serve America, we were extremely pleased with how the futures market was unfolding.
Wednesday was a nasty day as the market fell 2.5%, on average, with the Dow closing below 13,000 and its 200-day Moving Average (MA) while the S&P finished below 1,400. The index was able to hold it 200-day MA at 1,380 but this level fell on Thursday as the Dow and S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq in accomplishing this mission.
Friday was up for grabs and we figured there would be a bounce, and there was until Obama spoke, but the market barely held onto its gains and the next levels of support.
**************************************
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Sunday, November 11th, 2012
11:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. LifeLock (LOCK) Announces Sweet Earnings
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section. We are sorry for tonight’s delay but we wanted to cover everything before we went to press.)
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are doing well for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and is 26-0. Together, we are 144-50 (75% win rate) for both newsletters and we doubt you will find a hotter options trading service.
Our list of winners for 2012 include+475% on AXP,+462% on ARNA,+292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is now 26-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet returns include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, LOCK, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, September 28th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market recovered on Thursday following the week long drubbing by the bears and came close to reclaiming prior support levels. The bears kept the action close until our midday update but surrendered more ground in the second half of trading. The major indexes are down 1%, on average, for the week so there is still work to do if the bulls want to get back to even.
The Dow gained 72 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 13,485. The blue-chips traded to a high of 13,522 but fell short of reclaiming the 13,500 level. If cleared today, the real test comes at clearing 13,600. There is still risk down to 13,350 on a pullback.
The S&P 500 added 14 points, or 1%, to settle at 1,447. The index tested a high of 1,450.20 but failed to hold this level into the close. This still leaves the door open for a test down to 1,425 but 1,475 comes back into play if 1,450 is cleared on the close.
The Nasdaq zoomed 43 points, or 1.4%, to end at 3,136. Tech reached a peak of 3,142 but failed to clear our 3,150 resistance target which was prior support. The close back above 3,100 was bullish but if it doesn’t hold today, there is risk down to 3,050 next week.
The Russell 2000 popped 10 points higher, or 1.1%, to close at 843 while the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, $14.84, down 1.97) dropped 12% and is back below 15.
There were a couple of noteworthy earnings reports last night after the bell which we will cover today in our afternoon update once the stocks open for trading. Nike (NKE, $96.00, up $0.51) was down $3.50, or 3.7%, in extended trading last night while Research In Motion (RIMM, $7.14, up $0.14) surged 20% to $8.60, up $1.46. Both companies beat Wall Street’s expectations although RIMM reported a loss.
Futures are showing a lower open as we head to press and look like this: Dow (-76); S&P 500 (-8); Nasdaq 100 (-11). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: NKE earnings, RIMM, RIMM weekly options, Russell 2000 quotes, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Tuesday, July 31st, 2012
12:50pm (EST)
As expected, the market has traded in a tight range today and has pushed red and green as Wall Street continues to wait on word from the Fed and the ECB. It has been a tension filled 48 hours as the debate rages on what they will or won’t do but it is no use in talking about it as the deadlines are almost here. Instead, we will talk stock and options which is what we do best.
RealD (RLD, $9.76, down $2.83) is down 22% today and has touched a low of $9.25. We have said this stock was going to single-digits and in late May we got aggressive with the June 10 puts when shares were near $12 which burned us.
We should have went with the August 10 puts (RLD120818P00010000, $0.60, up $0.40) which are up 200% and have traded to a high of 80 cents or the August 12.50 puts (RLD12081800012500, $2.60, up $1.75) which are also up 200% and have traded to $3.10.
The company reported earnings of $3 million, or 5 cents a share, versus $9.5 million, or $0.17 a share, in the year ago quarter. Revenue came in at just over $68 million. Wall Street was looking for profits of $0.15 a share on sales north of $70 million.
Dendreon (DNDN, $4.96, down $1.23) is getting dumped after reporting a wider-than-expected loss of 61 cents a share versus the suit-and-ties forecast for a loss of 59 cents a share. Revenue came in at $80 million versus estimates for $86 million as sales of Provenge continue to slip. The prostate cancer drug is facing increased competition and Dendreon said it would shutdown one of its Provenge manufacturing plants in an effort to cut costs. Shares of Dendreon are at their lowest levels since 2009 and are at pre-level prices before Provenge was even approved. This was one of our favorite stocks from a few years ago and it made our subscribers a lot of money after soaring from $4 to over $50. We said back in 2011 when shares fell below $40 to stay away from Dendreon because shares would get a lot cheaper.
Although they look “attractive” at these levels, the stock could fall to $3 or $2 which is maybe when you want to take a flyer. Shares would basically be a long-term call option with the chance of a takeover somewhere down the road. Dendreon needs a new CEO and a better sales team because the drug is worth something but someone is looking at this company as its market cap continues to shrink.
As we head to press, the market has trading lower with Tech turning negative along with the rest of the indexes. The Dow is down 35 points to 13,038 while the S&P 500 is off 4 points to 1,381. The Nasdaq is lower by a point to 2,944.
FaceBook (FB, $21.77, down $1.38) has made another fresh low of $21.61 and appears headed to $18. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 18.62, up 0.59) is up 3% and is creeping its way to 20…
We do have a NEW TRADE for you today and it is a carry-over trade on a current position that is showing a nice double-digit return. We are still holding out for triple-digits but we may have to go out to the September option chain to get our gains.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and please use limit prices to get the best fills.
Tags: covered call trading, dndn, RLD, VIX
Posted in Covered Calls, Earnings, Market Analysis, VIX | Comments Off
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Bulls Looking Weak as Bears Have Momentum
Monday, November 12th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“There are plenty of signals to sift through on trying to figure out where the market could be headed over the short-term but the Presidential Election will be the heaviest weight that could sink or swim either side. Like the election, there will be a loser and the trend could affect how the market trades for the rest of the year.
Economic news, earnings, and European headlines will be a risk and the headlines would seem to favor the bears going forward but it has been hard to count the bulls out all year long. We are on the fence on which way the market is headed but we wouldn’t be surprised either way which direction the market takes from here. The beauty is we could care less because our Portfolios are light and we like to play BOTH sides of the market and that gives us an edge over most investors and mutual fund managers.
When the market is going up, we favor call option trades. When the market is going down, we use put options to play the downside. We have outlined clear levels of support and resistance so we can relax a little until after the dust settles. There will be plenty of time and plenty of trades to get into so let’s look at how this week could play out.
We have said there is a chance for a “Romney Rally” and we aren’t sure if we coined this term back in August but it is picking up steam. There are different perceptions on which President is “better” for the stock market but the majority of investors and Wall Street believe an Obama win would be bullish. We don’t.
To start, an Obama second-term could cause further division between the Republicans and Democrats and we doubt the Fiscal Cliff would get resolved by year-end, especially with the holidays coming up. Romney has said he will solve these issues like he did when he was governor but stock market pundits believe if he gets rid of Ben Bernanke, the market will tank in 2013 because the Fed won’t be providing liquidity.
Our argument would be 12 million jobs like he promised and growing the economy at a much faster rate is better than doubling the national debt again which is what happened during Obama’s 4 years in the White House. In case anyone has forgotten, the U.S. owes $16 trillion. This is 16 plus 12 zeros, or $16,000,000,000,000, or a million millions.
The deficit is the single-most factor in deciding America’s future and Obama could push it to $20 trillion at his current rate. Oh, and Obama wants to INCREASE capital gains tax. Romney wants to eliminate them. Right on.
We could go on and on about who could win, who should win, what could happen or what will happen but in our minds, we would rather have a President that has run businesses and balanced budgets instead of going down the current road towards socialism.
As far as the technical picture, the indexes have held their 200-day MA’s except for Tech and all of them are having trouble clearing their 50-day MA’s. It would be hard to imagine the Dow, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 not falling below their 200-day MA’s simply because Tech has. However, if this is the bottom, overall, it will be easy to say they held if there is a rally. But that would be hindsight and that is why we feel a test below the 200-day MA’s will come over the near-term for all of the major indexes.
If there isn’t, and the market rallies maybe we can thank Mitt because we do feel he will be better for the market, but more importantly, America. If there is somehow a “tie” and lawyers get involved because the race is so tight, the market will suffer.
There has been one indicator, believe it or not, that has been incredibly accurate in picking the next President and has a 95% win rate.
We will leave you with what we call the Redskins Rule. Since we live and work near the nation’s Capital, it is hard not to follow the NFL Washington Redskins (and politics) and the Redskins Rule is something we always watch every 4 years. We weren’t around when the “indicator” started in 1940 mind you but it has an incredible accurate history of picking the next President.
Over the past 18 Washington Redskin’s HOME games before the Presidential election, the incumbent party (or the party that last won the popular vote) has won 17 of the times if the Redskins won. If the Redskins lost their home game before the election, the challenging party has won (Romney).
The Redskins played on Sunday and were at home pagainst the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins lost 13-21. This will be a historic week to say the least as we could get a Redskin Ruling, a Romney Rally, or a Barrack Breakdown”. (from 11/4/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
“Hail to Obama, hail victory, Democrats on the war path, fight for all D.C. – Theme song at the White House following Tuesday’s Presidential race…
The Redskin Rule was a fumble, there was a Romney Rally, but the devil was in the details as the market got the Barrack Breakdown. The bears pushed support on Monday as the Dow held 13,000 and the S&P 500 1,400. The bulls were able to rebound to start the week with a slight win which carried over into Tuesday.
The major indexes posted strong gains and cleared near-term resistance ahead of the Presidential Election but Tech looked weak and the closes were right at resistance. We watched the race and the futures throughout the night and we warned of a major selloff on Sunday night. Despite us being unhappy with the Head Zombie that got elected to serve America, we were extremely pleased with how the futures market was unfolding.
Wednesday was a nasty day as the market fell 2.5%, on average, with the Dow closing below 13,000 and its 200-day Moving Average (MA) while the S&P finished below 1,400. The index was able to hold it 200-day MA at 1,380 but this level fell on Thursday as the Dow and S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq in accomplishing this mission.
Friday was up for grabs and we figured there would be a bounce, and there was until Obama spoke, but the market barely held onto its gains and the next levels of support.
**************************************
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off