|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Friday, February 3rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market finished flat on Thursday ahead of this morning’s unemployment numbers with Tech showing strength while the blue-chips slipped.
The Dow fell 11 points to 12,705 while the S&P added a point to end at 1,325. The Nasdaq added 11 points to finish at 2,859 after kissing a high of 2,868.
Before we get into this morning’s action, we wanted to give you an update on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $40.40, down $6.43) which dropped 14% yesterday. We have been watching this stock for over a decade so we know how it trades and we could fell this big breakdown coming which may not be done. This is one of the beauties of trading options because sometimes you can just feel a trade is going to be good and we have targeted a drop below $40 for 2 weeks.
Shares were downgraded on Monday but shares drifted higher throughout the week and we knew we were getting the perfect setup. In fact, as we have been closing trades this week, we had Abercrombie put options at the TOP of our Watch List. The company was expected to announce earnings next week and we have been telling our subscribers that they could report a terrible quarter.
It wasn’t too hard to figure out when some of our research revealed the company has been slashing prices for months and has been losing market share. Plus, with the warm weather, this pick was a no brainer.
Here were our thoughts with stock and option quotes from the Wednesday’s close:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $46.83, up $0.89)
February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $0.65, down $0.25)
May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $1.10, down $0.30)
Thoughts: We could be getting close for a nice entry point. The company will announce earnings on February 13 and we think it will be a terrible quarter. In fact, they could pre-warn Wall Street and we may open a position by Friday on ANF with one of these options.
There is a chance for a pop to $50 but a move below $42.50 will be our trigger point. However, we may enter early on a drop below $45. (END)
Needless to say, the put options had a monster day. The February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $2.25, up $1.60) were up a whopping 240% and the May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $2.30, up $1.20) easily gained over 100%.
Abercrombie pre-announced results Thursday and said profits were up 16% for the quarter but U.S. sales were up just 4% due to heavy markdowns. Looking ahead, the retailer said it expects profits of $1.10-$1.15 a share for the current 3 months versus the suit-and-ties expectations for $1.54.
Although we missed another golden opportunity yesterday from a trade on our Watch List, Abercrombie could be headed below $30 so we may get another opportunity to short this name. We will be doing some more chart work over the weekend and we will let you know on Monday how things are looking.
The good news is we do have 2 current 100% winners on the books with half-profits already taken in one of them.
As far as this morning’s action, it looks like a green open and our headline says it all.
Dow futures are up 101 points to 12,767 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 12 points to 1,334. The Nasdaq futures are showing a 24 point pop and are at 2,515.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and once again, stay on the lookout for Trade Alerts this morning.
Tags: anf, ANF earnings miss, call options, unemployment rate
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Friday, April 1st, 2011
9:00am (EST)
We knew yesterday would be boring and the tight range the market traded in followed script. The Dow traded within a 60 point range and lost 30 points into the close to finish at 12,319. The S&P 500 stayed in a 5 point handle and closed at 1,325, which held all day.
The Nasdaq gets its own paragraph as it finished up 4 points to 2,781.
The Russell 2000 added 3 points to settle at 843. We have been saying if the bulls can break resistance, Tech and the small-caps could lead the way.
Of course, everything came down to today and this morning’s nonfarm payrolls figures. Doing our best Tony the Tiger…they were G-R-E-A-T!
The unemployment rate came in at 8.8% as 216,000 jobs were added for March.
We said yesterday if the bulls get a reading of 8.8% or under, then we should see new highs.
Dow futures are up 69 points to 12,321 while S&P 500 futures are higher by 8 points to 1,329. Nasdaq futures are showing a 14 point pop to 2,350. We should see some nice price action for our current trades. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: nonfarm payrolls., unemployment rate
Posted in Economic News, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, January 7th, 2011
12:10pm (EST)
The market has traded in a tight range today as we close the week and the bulls are on track to get the first victory of the year if we hold at current levels. There was a lot of nervousness ahead of this morning’s jobs data but both the bulls and bears got a piece of the action so we aren’t too surprised to see a flat day.
We thought Bernanke would be more “upbeat” but he is a boring dude to watch, let’s admit it. He has been known to drop the ball at times, especially when the bulls are on a roll, but he appeared calm today, not nervous, and said the economic recovery is moving forward, although, at a pace that is insufficient to reduce the rate of unemployment significantly. He went on to say that he thought the economic recovery seems likely to be stronger in 2011 than it was in 2010.
The Dow started the week at 11,577 and is currently down 44 points to 11,652. We would love to see a close above our 11,700 target but it will be tight.
The S&P was at 1,257 on Monday morning and is lower by 5 points to 1,268. The index broke out of the 1,250-1,260 range from last week and we are looking for a close above 1,275.
The Nasdaq stood at 2,652 at the beginning of the week and is off by 11 points to 2,698. We would like to see a close over 2,700.
As we head into next week, these levels will be key to watch for the market as the bulls plan their next leg up. They managed to close above these levels on Wednesday so that was good sign but the bears might look to get back into the game. We can’t see them doing much damage, yet, but we are going to use this opportunity to close half positions on some of our current trades.
The BEST part of closing a trade that is up 100% or more is that by closing half you make it a risk-free trade. Sure, it sucks if you see the options continue to go higher but what if they don’t? It is also possible to close out a trade that is up 100% and have it go on to make 200%. And, sometimes they go on to only make 50% or the position might be closed for a loss. We like being safe and some of the trades we got into over “Christmas Break” are up triple-digits. While other “gurus” were taking a breather, we knew Santa still had a few presents left unclaimed.
Earnings season is upon us and as you all know by now, Alcoa (AA, $16.37, up $0.01) will be reporting on Monday and will “officially” get the party started. The stock has already made a nice run heading into earnings as shares are up about 7% this week. We won’t be playing options on Alcoa this time around but we are targeting one or two trades for next week. In fact, we are releasing a new trade RIGHT NOW!
Our 2011 portfolio is off to an incredible start but we want to protect our profits and open some new positions. We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap, which has been just as hot, and a look at next week’s earnings picture.
Subscribers, check for the new trade and updates in the Members Area. Have a great weekend everyone!
Tags: AA, Alcoa Earnings, call options, momentum options, Momentum stocks, NYSE: AA, unemployment rate
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Friday, January 7th, 2011
9:00am (EST)
Yesterday’s news doesn’t really matter as of this update but we like to keep tradition around here.
The Dow had it 4-session winning streak snapped on Thursday as the index fell 25 points, or 0.2%, and closed at 11,697 while the S&P 500 slipped 3 points, or 0.2%, and settled at 1,273. The Nasdaq was able to pull out a 7 point win and finished at 2,709.
Of course, it’s all about the jobs numbers which came in mixed and will be hotly debated today. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4% (December), from 9.8% (November), while non-farm payrolls increased by 103,000 versus expectations for an increase for 150,000.
Futures were slightly up but began to fluctuate after the report. Currently, futures are slightly lower but the action favors the bulls.
As far as specific stocks, Dendreon (DNDN, $35.42, up $0.21) is holding a conference call to update Wall Street on its U.S. commercialization progress and its plans on breaking ground in European for Provenge. Dendreon will also go over their pipeline so we could get a good surprise here too.
We have been bullish on this stock for years (when it was under $5) and shares have been in a tight trading range since mid-October. The stock could get a pop today if there are significant developments in bringing their U.S. plants closer to production and if a deal with another drug company is announced.
We have a lot to cover in our Members Area and we may be sending out a Trade Alert later this morning. Some of our positions are showing triple-digit gains and we may close half positions ahead of the weekend. You know the saying: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered…
Tags: call options, momentum options, Momentum stocks, NASDAQ: DNDN, non-farm payroll numbers, unemployment rate
Posted in Economic News, Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Friday, March 5th, 2010
9:05am (EST)
Futures are pointing towards a strong open this morning after U.S. employers cut a smaller than expected 36,000 jobs in February, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.7%. However, it was unclear how much the snow had impacted payrolls.
 Courtesy of Econoday.com The Labor Department said job losses for December and January had been revised to show 35,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.
Wall Street had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 50,000 last month and the unemployment rate to edge up to 9.8%. Some pencil pushers thought the snow would cause a huge drop in payrolls. However, the Labor Department said while the winter storms might have affected payrolls, it was difficult to quantify the net impact on employment.
The bulls took the news and ran with it. Before the report, the Dow futures were up 26 but quickly doubled.
As we head to press, Dow futures are higher by 51 to 10,482 while the S&P 500 futures are up 7 1,129. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 11 to 1,870. We have a lot to cover in our Members Area this morning including another NEW trade. Current subscribers, check for the updates.
Tags: non farm payroll, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading, unemployment rate
Posted in Economic News | Comments Off
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.3%
Friday, February 3rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market finished flat on Thursday ahead of this morning’s unemployment numbers with Tech showing strength while the blue-chips slipped.
The Dow fell 11 points to 12,705 while the S&P added a point to end at 1,325. The Nasdaq added 11 points to finish at 2,859 after kissing a high of 2,868.
Before we get into this morning’s action, we wanted to give you an update on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $40.40, down $6.43) which dropped 14% yesterday. We have been watching this stock for over a decade so we know how it trades and we could fell this big breakdown coming which may not be done. This is one of the beauties of trading options because sometimes you can just feel a trade is going to be good and we have targeted a drop below $40 for 2 weeks.
Shares were downgraded on Monday but shares drifted higher throughout the week and we knew we were getting the perfect setup. In fact, as we have been closing trades this week, we had Abercrombie put options at the TOP of our Watch List. The company was expected to announce earnings next week and we have been telling our subscribers that they could report a terrible quarter.
It wasn’t too hard to figure out when some of our research revealed the company has been slashing prices for months and has been losing market share. Plus, with the warm weather, this pick was a no brainer.
Here were our thoughts with stock and option quotes from the Wednesday’s close:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $46.83, up $0.89)
February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $0.65, down $0.25)
May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $1.10, down $0.30)
Thoughts: We could be getting close for a nice entry point. The company will announce earnings on February 13 and we think it will be a terrible quarter. In fact, they could pre-warn Wall Street and we may open a position by Friday on ANF with one of these options.
There is a chance for a pop to $50 but a move below $42.50 will be our trigger point. However, we may enter early on a drop below $45. (END)
Needless to say, the put options had a monster day. The February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $2.25, up $1.60) were up a whopping 240% and the May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $2.30, up $1.20) easily gained over 100%.
Abercrombie pre-announced results Thursday and said profits were up 16% for the quarter but U.S. sales were up just 4% due to heavy markdowns. Looking ahead, the retailer said it expects profits of $1.10-$1.15 a share for the current 3 months versus the suit-and-ties expectations for $1.54.
Although we missed another golden opportunity yesterday from a trade on our Watch List, Abercrombie could be headed below $30 so we may get another opportunity to short this name. We will be doing some more chart work over the weekend and we will let you know on Monday how things are looking.
The good news is we do have 2 current 100% winners on the books with half-profits already taken in one of them.
As far as this morning’s action, it looks like a green open and our headline says it all.
Dow futures are up 101 points to 12,767 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 12 points to 1,334. The Nasdaq futures are showing a 24 point pop and are at 2,515.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and once again, stay on the lookout for Trade Alerts this morning.
Tags: anf, ANF earnings miss, call options, unemployment rate
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off