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Posts Tagged ‘support levels’

VIX Trips 15 as Bears Get Aggressive/ Profit Alert (233%!)!!!

Friday, January 24th, 2014

12:30pm (EST)

The bulls faced trouble at the open and the talking heads have been all jacked up on a pending correction following yesterday’s pullback and today’s test to the second wave of support levels.

The Dow is on track for its worst week since June of 2012 despite the Dow Transports breaking out to new highs.  We talked about the relationship between the two in our Dow Theory series in November and the blue-chips will either follow the Transports or continue their breakdown.

The Dow will need to rebound into today’s close and into next week or there could be some real trouble coming.  The indexes are still hovering in the bottom of their trading ranges but the volatility this week could also be a prelude to what’s coming.

While we do have a few trades that could be affected by a pullback, other trades are doing well as we have got off to a fast start for 2014.  The Daily newsletter is 7-0 and the Weekly Wrap is 5-1.

We have remained patient during the recent 5-week trading range and we mentioned last week we could see a 3,000 point swing in the Dow this year.  This should not worry you as this type of action will make us an incredible amount of money if we get the moves right.

It is too early to say if the move comes to the downside or upside but remember it is just as easy to make money when there is a market selloff by using put options.

The chances the indexes remain in a trading range are good but like we have said, we will be well prepared if there is a continued selloff.

The Dow is down 175 points to 16,022 while the S&P 500 is lower by 24 points to 1,804.  The Nasdaq is declining 65 points to 4,153 and the Russell 2000 is off 21 points to 1,151.  The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 16.06, up 2.02) is surging nearly 17% and has cleared 15.  If this level holds into the close, start flinching as we could have itchy trigger fingers next week.

We have a lot to cover today with our current trades, including a Profit Alert on a trade that is up 233%!  We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the Daily.  Until then, have a great weekend everyone!

Special Notice:  Our 2014 option trading manual, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, is in production phase and will start to ship next week!  For everyone that upgraded to a 1-year deal through our special offer, you will be getting tracking numbers to let you know when the course will arrive.  Thank you for your patience and we really feel you will enjoy the tips the course has to offer to make you a better trader.

Market Turns Red, Green Mountain Gets Green Light

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

1:20pm (EST)

The bears have used a bevy of negative news to push the market down to support levels once again.  Oil, China, Spain, and unemployment claims are the major negative headlines that led to a big gap down at the open which is where we have spent much of today’s session. 

Oil is down $2 to $102 but the geopolitical concerns in Libya have gotten more serious.  Moody’s (MCO, $31.93, down $0.46) downgraded Spain’s debt and issued a negative outlook.  China’s posted its largest trade deficit in 7 years at $7 billion.  And finally, here in the U.S., initial weekly jobless claims were greater-than-expected at 397,000 while the trade deficit for January increased to $46.3 billion from $40.3 billion in the prior month.  

As result, all three indexes are right at support and at crucial levels of a trend change.

The Dow is off 154 points to 12,058 and has touched a low of 11,988.  We have been mentioning support at 12,000 and that got stretched but the bulls have to hold this level going into the close.

The S&P is down 17 points and is at 1,303 after kissing a low of 1,295.  The bulls are trying to hold 1,300 but a close below here could lead to 1,275 and then 1,250.

The Nasdaq is getting whacked for 36 points and is at 2,715.  The index has traded to a low of 2,695.  The bulls will be trying to hold 2,700 into the close.

Although today’s sell-off looks nasty, there is a good chance the bulls hold these levels. 

Sometimes it’s easy to imagine the future, profiting from it is a different story.

We do have some good news for you though and some of our subscribers are having a good day on the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $58.00, up $60.81, up $17.17) news.  The company has teamed up with Starbucks (SBUX, $37.77, up $3.23) and will offer a K-cup to coffee lovers.  

From February 15, 2011 (Quotes from that day):

“We want to talk about Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $46.35, up $2.89) this morning because the stock has been a favorite of ours and a regular candidate on our Watch List.  We have recommended options on them in the past.  The weird thing is that Sunday night we saw the Starbucks (SBUX, $33.58, up $0.23) commercial promoting their instant (single-serve) coffee and “instantly” thought that a deal could be brewing between the two companies, quickly.  In fact, we even wrote up a call option trade on Green Mountain at 10:30am yesterday that failed to make it to press because we wanted to close out a few trades before recommending new ones.   

The call options we were following were at 28 cents and volume was at 60 contracts.  Before the closing bell, volume had swelled to nearly 3,000 contracts.  We aren’t sure if there is still a trade here but we investigate “the situation”.  All signs are pointing towards Green Mountain making a run to double nickels ($55).”  (END)

Inside our Members Area on that same day, we profiled the March 50 calls (GMCR110319C00050000, $11.00, up $10.60) which were at $1.40 after jumping $1 the day before.  As you can see, these same options fell back down to 40 cents but are up over 3,500%. 

We will be watching the close today for clues on where this market is headed but we are expecting support to hold with a slight bounce higher into the close.

Market Recap

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

The market started off on a good note Wednesday but was singing the blues by day’s end. It was much of the same old story as the market struggled to hold Tuesday’s gains. After starting the week off at 11,232, the Dow tried to get back over 11,500 and did, briefly, before falling 236 points to end the session at 11,147.

I have been mentioning key support levels that have been broken and it now appears the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have officially joined the Dow. For the Dow it was 11,750 which fell June 26. For the S&P 500 it was 1,275. After flirting with that level for the past week, yesterday’s drop of 29 points put the S&P at 1,244. The Nasdaq needed to hold 2,375 and then 2,275. Today’s drop of 60 points was like a canon ball going through paper and put the Nasdaq at 2,234.

It could get ugly if you are a bull. A quick look at the charts tells me if the Dow falls below 11,000 then we could be headed to 10,000. The S&P will need to hold 1,200 or else we’re looking at 1,100. For the Nasdaq, if 2,200 is broken there is support at 2,000. This would put the indexes at two-year lows. If the two-year support levels are broken the bulls will throw in the towel.

I don’t think, and that’s a big think, that the market will fall below these levels but all we need is one more major blow or an unexpected curveball to send the market into a tailspin. I think the best case we can hope for is that we get a rally come August/ September that will take us through the Presidential election and maybe into a “Christmas Rally”. That’s still a lot to ask for either way you slice it, especially with the volatility we’ve been seeing.

What seems to be working is riding hot sectors higher and jumping aboard stocks that continue to get hit with bad news. Any option positions taken should be carefully guarded and stops of even 10%-20% should be set regardless if you are long or short the market. The average investor doesn’t understand bear markets and I don’t mean that in a bad way. But just like bull markets where people make money when the market goes higher, people that know how to make money in bear markets are enjoying the current action.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

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    The portfolios can be found in the Members Area as well as past portfolios from 2008-2011. Overall, we are 621-273 on nearly 900 real-time recommendations that equals a success rate of 70%. This means, on average, 7-out-of-10 of our option trade recommendations make you money and we hope to have an even better success rate for 2013.

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Trader Comments:
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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