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Wednesday, June 30th, 2010
10:50am (EST)
For those of you who use our cell phone alerts to get updates, please check your email inbox as we have just released a NEW TRADE! Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest update!
Tags: stock option picks, stock option signals
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010
9:00am (EST)
The bulls made a stand on Wednesday following better-than-expected pending home sales and continued strength in auto sales. The Energy sector also rebounded which helped the market post strong gains as the major indexes rallied 2%-3% yesterday.
The National Association of Realtors gave the bulls their first breath of fresh air after reporting soon to be home sales for April came in at a 6% monthly increase versus expectations for a 5% pop.
The Auto sector gave the bulls more air to breathe after they reported a 19% increase in domestic sales for May with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 11.6 million vehicles sold.
The bulls also showed strength into the closing bell which usually happens when there is one last rally cry. As a result, the Dow posted a double triple-digit gain of 226 points, or 2.3%, to settle at 10,249. We mentioned in our Weekly Wrap we could see the Dow make one last run up to 10,400-500 so we have been expecting this.
The S&P 500 added 28 points, or 2.6%, to finish at 1,098 but fell shy of the 1,100 mark which is its first wave of resistance. This is the main number we have been watching over the last few weeks and clearly the bulls are having trouble with it. Still, there is a chance of 1,150 if the bulls keep pushing.
As far as the Nasdaq, the index gained 59 points, or 2.6%, and closed at 2,281. We said the first top was the 2,300 level and maybe a chance for 2,400 so keep an eye on these levels.
So far, the market has followed our game plan as we have added 4 new trades over the past couple of days. Our goal was to get into these trades on one last rally and our hand is almost full as we get ready to rumble with the bulls. Although they made a brief comeback, we still believe the market gets another curveball.
We want to make it clear that trading options in this type of environment can be scary, nerve-racking, and pins-and-needles type drama. It is also high risk/ high reward. Like we said yesterday, it is important to plan your trades on where you think the market is heading over the next six weeks. Remember, all you want is price action and a lot of people are reading this tape wrong and getting crushed.
This morning is full of economic news as the market is currently digesting weekly jobless claims and the latest monthly ADP Employment Report. Friday is when we get the Labor Department’s figures on employment. Water cooler talk is that the number has already leaked and judging by our President’s remarks on Wednesday (and some other high ranking officials) maybe yesterday’s rally was just that.
Tags: momentum stock options, stock option signals
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Monday, April 19th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
Futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open as the bulls try to get up off their feet following Friday’s knockdown punch from the real Slim Shady, Goldman Sachs (GS, $160.70, down $23.57).
There will be 135 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week, which, if you do the math, is nearly a quarter of the index. Wall Street has penciled in an earnings pop of nearly 40% from year ago levels with revenues getting a 10% pop versus last year’s results.
Here is a look at the companies reporting (quotes are from Friday’s close):
Monday: Alleghany (Y, $300.06, down $1.95), Arch Coal (ACI, $26.00, down $0.67), Bank of Hawaii (BOH, $48.60, down $0.44), BJ Services (BJS, $21.65, down $0.70), CF Industries (CF, $90.00, flat), Citigroup (C, $4.56, down $0.25), Eli Lilly (LLY, $36.54, down $0.18), Halliburton (HAL, $31.64, down $0.88), Hasbro (HAS, $39.85, down $0.29), Park National (PRK, $64.85, down $0.45), Raymond James (RJF, $29.41, down $0.85) and SunPower (SPWRA, $18.29, down $0.38).
Tuesday: Apple (AAPL, $247.40, down $1.52), AK Steel Holding (AKS, $21.60, down $0.61), Bank of New York Mellon (BK, $31.57, down $0.45), Biogen Idec (BIIB, $53.64, down $0.77), Brinker International (EAT, $20.38, down $0.33), Coach (COH, $42.31, down $0.68), Coca-Cola (KO, $54.97, up $0.71), Cree (CREE, $82.12, down $0.73), Eaton (ETN, $79.39, down $0.93), Forest Laboratories (FRX, $27.80, down $0.41), Goldman Sachs (GS, $160.70, down $23.57), Harley-Davidson (HOG, $33.08, down $0.19), Illinois Tool Works (ITW, $49.01, down $0.54), Jefferies (JEF, $27.40, down $0.58), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, $65.02, down $0.49), Juniper Networks (JNPR, $31.21, down $0.77), Nabors Industries (NBR, $19.52, down $0.54), Parker Hannifin (PH, $69.07, down $1.14), Supervalu (SVU, $16.98, down $0.18), U.S. Bancorp (USB, $27.45, down $0.81), VMware (VMW, $56.39, down $0.04) and Yahoo (YHOO, $18.17, down $0.80).
Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT, $52.26, down $0.10), Altria Group (MO, $20.87, down $0.23), Amgen (AMGN, $60.72, up $0.08), AT&T (T, $25.93, down $0.31), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, $124.05, down $1.03), eBay (EBAY, $26.33, down $0.65), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX, $81.18, down $3.04), Intersil (ISIL, $16.59, down $0.22), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP, $66.43, down $0.36), Lockheed Martin (LMT, $82.99, down $0.23), McDonald’s (MCD, $69.03, down $0.13), Morgan Stanley (MS, $29.16, down $1.72), Netflix (NFLX, $85.31, down $1.52), Piper Jaffray (PJC, $43.04, down $0.79), SanDisk (SNDK, $37.74, down $0.89), St. Jude Medical (STJ, $40.88, down $1.06), Starbucks (SBUX, $24.96, down $0.17) and Wells Fargo (WFC, $32.56, down $0.95).
Thursday: Amazon.com (AMZN, $142.17, down $3.65), BB&T (BBT, $33.76, down $0.42), Capital One Financial (COF, $43.49, down $1.66), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE, $28.74, flat), DeVry (DV, $70.86, up $0.21), Ford (F, $13.42, down $0.34), Greenhill (GHL, $87.50, up $0.62), L3 Communications (LLL, $94.80, down $0.22), Marriott International (MAR, $33.88, down $0.15), Microsoft (MSFT, $30.67, down $0.20), Nokia (NOK, $14.94, down $0.32), Philip Morris International (PM, $50.74, down $0.85) and RadioShack (RSH, $23.32, down $0.40).
Friday: Ingersoll-Rand (IR, $37.16, down $0.66), Johnson Controls (JCI, $32.69, down $0.79), Patriot Coal (PCX, $21.90, down $1.57) and Travelers Companies (TRV, $52.14, down $0.74).
As we head to press, Dow futures are down 54 points to 10,930 while the S&P 500 futures are off by 7 to 1,183. The Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by 8 points to 2,002.
As far as economic news, we get the March index of leading economic indicators (LEI) shortly after the open this morning. Analysts are expecting the index to have risen 1% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will also chime in today with his latest thoughts and comments. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates.
Tags: stock option picks, stock option signals, weekly earnings reports
Posted in Company Commentary | Comments Off
Thursday, April 1st, 2010
9:00am (EST)
We knew going into yesterday’s open the market was going to have a rough session after the bulls after some disappointing economic news. The market started off in the red but the losses were contained as the bulls came in and started buying at the lows shortly after the bell. The rest of the day was a struggle and the bears eventually won out with the market finishing near the bottom end of Wednesday’s range.
The Dow dropped 50 points, or 0.5%, and settled at 10,856. The index managed a quick trip into positive territory at one point and touched a high of 10,907 after dropping to 10,832 shortly after the open.
The S&P 500 slipped 4 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 1,169 after touching a low of 1,165. As long as the index holds 1,150, that’s how long we stay bullish. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq gave up a 12-pack, or 0.5%, and closed just below our 2,400 level at 2,397.
Yesterday was the end of the quarter and we will go over the March and quarterly gains in the Weekly Wrap. We will also give you a scorecard on how well we did as we will be updating the portfolio to reflect our recently closed trades.
The big news after the bell last night was Research In Motion’s (RIMM, $73.97, down $0.95) quarterly report. On Monday, we thought there was a chance the company might wow Wall Street but as the week wore on, and with the Apple (AAPL, $235.00, down $0.85) news yesterday, we kind of felt RIMM was a sitting duck.
RIMM missed estimates and in after-hours last night shares quickly fell to $68 but later recovered to close above $70. The company earned $710 million, or $1.27 a share versus a profit of $518 million, or $0.90 a share, in the year ago period. Wall Street was expecting $1.28.
Revenue came in at $4.08 billion, but fell short of the company’s forecast of $4.2-$4.4 billion and Wall Street’s forecast of $4.3 billion in revenue.
The 5% drop in after-hours has carried over into this morning as shares are trading at $70.25 in early action.
RIMM still grew its subscriber base by 4.9 million, better than the company’s forecast of between 4.4 million and 4.7 million, but we feel they could lose a lot of customers once Apple launches a CDMA phone. Analysts will argue RIMM is still growing globally but even if it is Apple will be too.
RIMM has an overall subscriber base of nearly 41 million users but a recent survey points towards many of them might jumping ship once Apple does come out with a new iPhone. Perhaps the best way for RIMM to attack this problem would be to scoop up Palm (PALM, $3.76, flat) on the cheap.
Palm has a nice operating system and some slick features but even a move like this might not improve RIMM’s chances of holding off Apple. In fact, Palm would likely want a higher price than $7-$8 which would represent a 100% premium and maybe fair value but they would want more considering shares were recently in the teens before the plunge.
This smartphone wars are only beginning and now, with prices coming down, it will only intensify.
Despite RIMM’s miss, futures are pointing towards a strong open for Tech as the Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 10 points this morning. Dow futures are up 70 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 7.
Tags: AAPL, Palm, Research in Motion, RIMM, stock option picks, stock option signals
Posted in Apple, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Friday, March 19th, 2010
9:10am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Thursday despite a number of fantastic earnings reports and an upbeat round of economic data. The bulls took 2-out-of-3 from the bears after the latest jobless report revealed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 last week. It was the third consecutive decline in jobless filings and sets the stage for an improving jobs report in April.
The Labor Department also said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in February, suggesting that inflation remains relatively tame. In other economic news, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% and the Philadelphia Fed Index for March came in at 18.9, which was slightly above the reading of 18 that Wall Street had been expected.
As a result, the Dow rallied 46 points, or 0.4%, and settled at 10,779. The index traded as high as 10,784 and went out near its high which was a good sign as we zone in on our target of 10,800. We know we are within spitting distance, and if we were playing horseshoes this would work but we really would like to see a close above this level today. That would pave the way for Dow 11,000 depending on what happens with healthcare this weekend.
The Nasdaq added a deuce and closed at 2,391 but traded in a tight range as we try to close above the 2,400 level we have mentioned. We touched this level on Wednesday but missed the mark yesterday as the index only made it to a high of 2,394.
The lonesome loser was the S&P 500 which slipped a half-point to finish at 1,165. Our target is 1,175 then a possible run to 1,200.
Folks, we have been flagging these targets since August and we nailed it when the indexes traded near these levels in January. The market then faded but we knew these targets would come into play once the bulls got back on track. However, now that we are here again, you can see where we are running into resistance and it will be important for the bulls to make a statement to get us through this level.
Today is “Triple Witching” so we could see some added volatility with the March options expiring. There will be battles fought at all levels and a lot of key strike prices will come into play as both the bulls and bears try to get the prices they want.
We can give you a great example this morning and all you have to do is watch the action in Palm (PALM, $5.65, up $0.28) today and into the closing bell. The company reported earnings last night and in after-hours trading shares were below $5. Palm issued a revenue forecast for the current quarter that was far below analysts’ expectations.
The company said it lost $18.5 million, or $0.13 a share versus a loss of $95 million, or $0.89 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue more than tripled to $350 million compared to $90 million but Palm is a mess.
Wall Street was expecting the company to report a loss of $0.42 a share on revenue of $316 million.
The problem with Palm is that their inventory is built up at wireless carriers and sales aren’t as brisk as they once were. Even their CEO admitted to “execution missteps” in a conference call and said they are working “aggressively” to boost sales.
Yeah, good luck buddy catching Apple (AAPL, $224.65, up $0.53)
Palm is facing a rapidly closing window to carve out a space in the competitive smartphone market and this report shows how they have dropped the ball.
As far as action, watch the March 5 puts (UPY100320P00005000, $0.17, down $0.03) and the April 5 puts (UPY100417P00005000, $0.44, down $0.05) today. We had the March puts on our Watch list Monday and Tuesday and they were at 10 cents. We should have backed the truck up because we had a feeling this dog was going below $5.
Shares of Palm are at $4.62, down $1.01 in pre-market trading.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up 11 to 10,728; S&P 500 futures are up 3 to 1,163; Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 2 to 1,945. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, options picks, Palm, stock option signals, Triple Witching
Posted in Earnings, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Bulls Will Be Tested
Monday, April 19th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
Futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open as the bulls try to get up off their feet following Friday’s knockdown punch from the real Slim Shady, Goldman Sachs (GS, $160.70, down $23.57).
There will be 135 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week, which, if you do the math, is nearly a quarter of the index. Wall Street has penciled in an earnings pop of nearly 40% from year ago levels with revenues getting a 10% pop versus last year’s results.
Here is a look at the companies reporting (quotes are from Friday’s close):
Monday: Alleghany (Y, $300.06, down $1.95), Arch Coal (ACI, $26.00, down $0.67), Bank of Hawaii (BOH, $48.60, down $0.44), BJ Services (BJS, $21.65, down $0.70), CF Industries (CF, $90.00, flat), Citigroup (C, $4.56, down $0.25), Eli Lilly (LLY, $36.54, down $0.18), Halliburton (HAL, $31.64, down $0.88), Hasbro (HAS, $39.85, down $0.29), Park National (PRK, $64.85, down $0.45), Raymond James (RJF, $29.41, down $0.85) and SunPower (SPWRA, $18.29, down $0.38).
Tuesday: Apple (AAPL, $247.40, down $1.52), AK Steel Holding (AKS, $21.60, down $0.61), Bank of New York Mellon (BK, $31.57, down $0.45), Biogen Idec (BIIB, $53.64, down $0.77), Brinker International (EAT, $20.38, down $0.33), Coach (COH, $42.31, down $0.68), Coca-Cola (KO, $54.97, up $0.71), Cree (CREE, $82.12, down $0.73), Eaton (ETN, $79.39, down $0.93), Forest Laboratories (FRX, $27.80, down $0.41), Goldman Sachs (GS, $160.70, down $23.57), Harley-Davidson (HOG, $33.08, down $0.19), Illinois Tool Works (ITW, $49.01, down $0.54), Jefferies (JEF, $27.40, down $0.58), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, $65.02, down $0.49), Juniper Networks (JNPR, $31.21, down $0.77), Nabors Industries (NBR, $19.52, down $0.54), Parker Hannifin (PH, $69.07, down $1.14), Supervalu (SVU, $16.98, down $0.18), U.S. Bancorp (USB, $27.45, down $0.81), VMware (VMW, $56.39, down $0.04) and Yahoo (YHOO, $18.17, down $0.80).
Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT, $52.26, down $0.10), Altria Group (MO, $20.87, down $0.23), Amgen (AMGN, $60.72, up $0.08), AT&T (T, $25.93, down $0.31), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, $124.05, down $1.03), eBay (EBAY, $26.33, down $0.65), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX, $81.18, down $3.04), Intersil (ISIL, $16.59, down $0.22), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP, $66.43, down $0.36), Lockheed Martin (LMT, $82.99, down $0.23), McDonald’s (MCD, $69.03, down $0.13), Morgan Stanley (MS, $29.16, down $1.72), Netflix (NFLX, $85.31, down $1.52), Piper Jaffray (PJC, $43.04, down $0.79), SanDisk (SNDK, $37.74, down $0.89), St. Jude Medical (STJ, $40.88, down $1.06), Starbucks (SBUX, $24.96, down $0.17) and Wells Fargo (WFC, $32.56, down $0.95).
Thursday: Amazon.com (AMZN, $142.17, down $3.65), BB&T (BBT, $33.76, down $0.42), Capital One Financial (COF, $43.49, down $1.66), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE, $28.74, flat), DeVry (DV, $70.86, up $0.21), Ford (F, $13.42, down $0.34), Greenhill (GHL, $87.50, up $0.62), L3 Communications (LLL, $94.80, down $0.22), Marriott International (MAR, $33.88, down $0.15), Microsoft (MSFT, $30.67, down $0.20), Nokia (NOK, $14.94, down $0.32), Philip Morris International (PM, $50.74, down $0.85) and RadioShack (RSH, $23.32, down $0.40).
Friday: Ingersoll-Rand (IR, $37.16, down $0.66), Johnson Controls (JCI, $32.69, down $0.79), Patriot Coal (PCX, $21.90, down $1.57) and Travelers Companies (TRV, $52.14, down $0.74).
As we head to press, Dow futures are down 54 points to 10,930 while the S&P 500 futures are off by 7 to 1,183. The Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by 8 points to 2,002.
As far as economic news, we get the March index of leading economic indicators (LEI) shortly after the open this morning. Analysts are expecting the index to have risen 1% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will also chime in today with his latest thoughts and comments. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates.
Tags: stock option picks, stock option signals, weekly earnings reports
Posted in Company Commentary | Comments Off