|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Friday, July 13th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market followed a similar pattern that has played out all week as the major indexes tested news lows before a late afternoon bounce made the losses more respectful.
The bears continued with their recent win streak as the Dow and S&P fell for a sixth straight day. The Nasdaq has fallen five-straight sessions.
Thursday’s pullback was fast and furious at the open despite some good jobless claims numbers but the bulls were able to close the gap by the time the final bell sounded.
The Dow declined 31 points, or 0.25%, to finish at 12,573. The blue-chips traded to a low of 12,492 before rebounding to close just under 12,600 which was all we really wanted to see. The index did make a late afternoon charge into positive territory and reached a high of 12,630 before closing below support.
The S&P 500 gave back 7 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 1,334.76. We wanted to see a close below 1,335 after the index reached a low of 1,325 and we got it. The next level of support is at 1,300 once 1,325 is taken out on the close while resistance remains 1,350.
The Nasdaq fell 22 points, or 0.75%, to end at 2,866. Tech traded down to 2,837 and we would have liked to have seen a finish below 2,850. Once we close below this level the selling pressure will pick up and any bounce should be contained up to 2,900.
Futures are showing a slightly higher open and its Friday the 13th so anything can happen: Dow (+37); S&P 500 (+3); Nasdaq 100 (+8).
Tags: Dow Futures, option trading newsletter, S&P futures
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, April 9th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The other curve ball will be Friday. The Unemployment Rate is due out and an uptick could cause panic as investors feel the recovery could be stalling. If the number is flat or moves lower, it will help the bulls case for higher prices. The problem is the market will be closed on Friday so we will have to wait until the following Monday to see how Wall Street reacts. Followed by the start of earnings on Tuesday.
We are expecting a continued rally this week with Thursday being the wildcard. (4/1/12 Weekly Wrap, Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bulls got off to a solid start on Monday as they made another run towards our near-term fluff targets for the market (Dow 13,500; S&P 1,425-1,450; and Nasdaq 3,250). Much of the momentum came from the prior week’s strong finish as the Dow traded up to 13,300 and closed at 13,264. The S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh 52-week highs of 1,422 and 3,123, respectively.
There was a little follow through by Tech on Tuesday morning as the Nasdaq reached 3,128 but the other indexes were lagging heading into the FOMC meeting minutes. Wall Street seemed a little hesitant to buy stocks ahead of the news despite Ben Bernanke’s comments on the possibility of further stimulus help during the prior week which sparked a rally to new highs. Needless to say, the bulls were shocked when the minutes came out later in the day after hearing the Fed say it was “less inclined” to do another round of quantitative easing (QE). This caused a pullback as all of the major indexes finished the session lower but still holding support.
Overseas markets took their cue from the U.S. and finished sharply lower on Wednesday which can be blamed for some of the continued weakness here at home. This and the fact that Spain is now back in the picture after an uneventful bond auction earlier that morning. Spain is a lot bigger than Greece so their debt crisis does matter and it showed. The market fell 1% for the day with the Nasdaq falling 1.5%.
Futures were pointing towards a weak open on Thursday following the release of the Jobless Claims numbers which were better than the prior week but only because of revisions. Initial claims came in at 357,000, which was down 6,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 363,000 claims. The 4-week average fell over 4,000 to just below 362,000 but analysts were expecting a print of 355,000. The figures are still at 4-year lows but Wall Street took it as a sign that initial claims could be on the up from February’s lows. This made traders a little nervous ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate numbers which lead to a mixed session.
Although the market was closed for Good Friday, we still went to the office and we still went through our usual pre-market morning rituals as we eagerly awaited the numbers. Futures were slightly up heading into the reports but turned on a dime once they came out. Make no mistake about it, they were absolutely atrocious.
Nonfarm payrolls for March dropped to 120,000 versus expectations for 205,000. It was the lowest jobs showing since October’s reading of 112,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.2%, down from 8.3%, but only because another 165,000 people threw in the towel on finding a job.
The news sent futures spiraling which were open until 9:15am (EST). The Dow futures were down nearly 150 points to 12,830 while the S&P 500 futures fell 20 points to 1370. The Nasdaq 100 got crushed for 30 points and stood at 2,720 going into the weekend.
We did some chart work Thursday night that we will get to in a moment which clearly shows the break in the uptrend lines for the major indexes even before Friday’s headlines.
We had a good feeling the market was going to be disappointed and we took the rest of the day off on Friday to celebrate because we have been preparing for a pullback. We have been opening quite a few put option trades over the last week or two to take advantage of a possible pullback, including one on Thursday, and if things hold up, our subscribers will be loving the open today despite a possible 1%+ decline.
*******************************
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a great start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit and double-digit returns for our newsletters which are 60-13 (82%) over the first 3 months of 2012.
Our list of winners include 475% on AXP, 292% on a COF call option, 131% and 114% on 2 MGM trades, 200% on SGMS, 107% on AFL, 100% on STX, 82% on TSM and 125% on MSFT just to name a few. In other words, these solid gains could have turned a $10,000 trading account into $32,000 for a 220% return using our recommendations.
Tags: Dow Futures, Nasdaq futures, nonfarm payrolls., S&P futures, stock market commentary, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, March 9th, 2012
8:45am (EST)
The bulls reclaimed support on Thursday after the bears took out key levels on Tuesday as the major averages finished right on our targets we were looking for. Yesterday’s 1% pop still wasn’t enough to get back to even for the week but it was enough to bring the bulls within striking distance.
The Dow added 71 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 12,908. The blue-chips hit a high of 12,937 just before the final hour of trading but gave back some of the possible triple-digit gain into the close. We called for a close above 12,900 and if the bulls can just hold this level today then it will be a huge victory that won’t go in the win column.
The S&P jumped 13 points, or 1%, to end at 1,365.91 (exact). We said a close above 1,365 would be bullish and a trip above 1,375 would be beautiful going into next week. The bulls will need to maintain current levels and at least get a close above 1,350 if there is a pullback.
The Nasdaq surged 35 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,970. Tech made a strong close above 2,950 and we got a bonus package when the index tagged an intraday high of 2,976. This opened the door for another run at 3,000.
The Russell 2000 scored a 10-point win and finished above the 800 level, at 806, or 1.3% higher.
Futures were slightly higher heading into the jobs numbers and improved once the good news hit. Dow futures are up 20 points to 12,864 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 3 points to 1,363. Nasdaq 100 futures are showing a 4 point pop and are at 2,636. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow Futures, S&P futures
Posted in Economic News, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, October 21st, 2011
9:00am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Thursday despite a day of good economic news and better-than expected earnings. We mentioned in our Weekly Wrap on Sunday that we would be entering the heart of 3Q earnings season this week and so far nearly 75% of the companies reporting have matched or beat expectations. Although the results haven’t provided the bulls with the momentum they were hoping for, there is some strength in the numbers which have helped the bulls hold support.
The major averages are showing a slight loss for the week as the bears try to snap the current 2-week winning streak the bulls’ are working on. Today is expiration day for the October options and it is usually a down session for the bulls. However, we continue to believe there will be a break higher out of the current trading range if Wall Street could just stop worrying about Europe. Then again, this is the 6th time since August the market has tried to break on through to the other side. (Yes, we wanted to remind you of a Doors song today – which is currently playing on the office jukebox as we type. How ironic, huh?).
The Dow added 37 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 11,541. The index traded to a low of 11,391 while the high was 11,581. Short-term support is at 11,350 while resistance remains 11,600.
The S&P gained 6 points, or 0.5%, and closed at 1,215. The index slipped below the 1,200 level after kissing a low of 1,197 but easily held the second wave of support which comes in at 1,175. We would like to see a close above 1,225 today – but as long as 1,200 sticks like glue, we will be happy going into the weekend.
The Nasdaq gave back 5 points, or 0.2%, to settle at 2,598. Tech touched a low of 2,557 which was just above the second wave of support at 2,550 and finished just below the 2,600 level. We aren’t too worried because it appears to us the Nasdaq is on the verge of testing 2,700 if it can clear resistance at 2,650.
After the close last night, Microsoft (MSFT, $27.04, down $0.09) matched earnings and beat sales expectations while SanDisk (SNDK, $45.50, up $0.32) absolutely smashed estimates.
Microsoft reported a profit of $5.74 billion, or $0.68 a share, versus $5.74 billion, or $0.62 a share, from the year earlier period. Revenue checked-in at $17.4 billion versus $17.2 billion a year ago while Wall Street had $0.68 as share on sales of $17.2 billion penciled-in. We knew Mister Softee would report a good quarter and we went long some call options that booked our subscribers 56% earlier this month. We have thought of making the stock a member of our Covered Call portfolio but we may be getting another great entry point to play this name again.
Elsewhere, SanDisk announced earnings of $1.20 a share versus a forecast of $1.06, on average, by most analysts. We said inside our Members Area yesterday that the company could surprise the Street and report a number north of $1.15. Shares are at $48 in pre-market action, up $2+.
Today is light as far as economic news and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a “flat” trading day as neither the bulls, or bears, will want to bet the ranch ahead of this weekend’s events concerning Europe. We were looking for another positive week but the bulls have some work to do. The Dow needs a triple-digit pop just to break even for the week so a 1% move is a must.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and the Watch List for some new ideas. There is one trade we like today but we are undecided on if we will get in this morning or wait until next week. If we do, look for a Trade Alert by 11am (sharp).
As we head towards the opening bell, futures look like this: Dow +110; S&P 500 +13; Nasdaq 100 futures are up 22 points.
Tags: Dow Futures, Microsoft (MSFT), S&P futures, Sandisk, SNDK earnings report
Posted in Covered Calls, Earnings, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Bears Extend Winning Streak
Friday, July 13th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market followed a similar pattern that has played out all week as the major indexes tested news lows before a late afternoon bounce made the losses more respectful.
The bears continued with their recent win streak as the Dow and S&P fell for a sixth straight day. The Nasdaq has fallen five-straight sessions.
Thursday’s pullback was fast and furious at the open despite some good jobless claims numbers but the bulls were able to close the gap by the time the final bell sounded.
The Dow declined 31 points, or 0.25%, to finish at 12,573. The blue-chips traded to a low of 12,492 before rebounding to close just under 12,600 which was all we really wanted to see. The index did make a late afternoon charge into positive territory and reached a high of 12,630 before closing below support.
The S&P 500 gave back 7 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 1,334.76. We wanted to see a close below 1,335 after the index reached a low of 1,325 and we got it. The next level of support is at 1,300 once 1,325 is taken out on the close while resistance remains 1,350.
The Nasdaq fell 22 points, or 0.75%, to end at 2,866. Tech traded down to 2,837 and we would have liked to have seen a finish below 2,850. Once we close below this level the selling pressure will pick up and any bounce should be contained up to 2,900.
Futures are showing a slightly higher open and its Friday the 13th so anything can happen: Dow (+37); S&P 500 (+3); Nasdaq 100 (+8).
Tags: Dow Futures, option trading newsletter, S&P futures
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off