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Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
Now we know why we learned World History in high school.
After a decent start, the market is pulling back on fears of a possible US conflict with Iran. Tensions have been rising for a few weeks over Iran’s threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz which happens to run 15 million barrels a day of oil through its waters, or one-fifth of the global production.
The country has been moved to the top of the global sanctions list due to its thirst for nuclear weapons and said shutting down the Strait would be easier than drinking a glass of H20. The US fired back (possible future pun intended) by saying no way Jose and will take action if Iran attempts to block the 4-mile width passage.
The US has been trying to, ah what’s a good word, “conform” Iran for decades and this threat of war shouldn’t be taken lightly. We aren’t worried about the outcome of who would “win” a war because it is never a good thing but the fight would be swift and Iran would suffer terribly. We are more worried about Iran’s hunger to build a nuclear weapon and the fact that oil could double to $200 if shots are fired.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to battle and cooler heads prevail but this could get ugly.
As far as the impact on the market, the bears are pushing support after the bulls ran the indexes higher at the open. However, once the US/ Iran news started making the rounds on the business channels, stocks pulled back. War doesn’t necessarily mean the market will automatically go lower and there our other countries who share our same interest in keeping the Strait open.
As we head to press, the market is near its lows. The Dow is down 133 points to 12,157 while the S&P 500 is off by 14 points to 1,250. Both indexes have slipped below their 200-day moving averages. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points to 2,595.
We have some more profits to take in case the pullback gets worse but we are looking for support to hold. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, stock market war worries, US+Iran conflict
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off
Friday, November 18th, 2011
9:00am (EST)
The market continued its most recent pattern this week, opening lower with the bulls battling back to even by midday, but finishing lower with harder selloffs into the close. Europe’s woes have been a headache which could become a migraine if the knuckleheads of the Super Committee can’t have something on the table by next Wednesday.
The group of six is in charge of trimming our country’s spending as the deficit just tripped $15 trillion by Thanksgiving and the early word is that the bickering has already begun.
Yesterday’s economic news was superb as Initial Claims came in under 400,000 once again, dropping 5,000 to 388,000 from the previous week. The 4-week average is also below 400K for first time since April. The Philly Fed number of 3.6 was a slight disappointment but it was still positive while home Building Permits jumped over 10% to 653,000 units.
We will have more on the Housing sector in our afternoon update along with a little story on “insider trading” which is apparently legal in this country if you work for the government.
As far as the market, the indexes came down to support so today and next week will be the big test for the bulls.
The Dow got whacked for 135 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 11,770. After falling thru our first target of 11,800, the index tested a low of 11,676 but held our line in the sand at 11,600. A close above 11,800 would be a win today although the bears would easily win the week.
The S&P got spanked for 21 points, or 1.7%, and closed at 1,216. The selling pressure picked up once 1,225 cracked but we were counting on 1,200 to hold. The low came in at 1,209 and we would like to see 1,225 or better stick for today’s close.
The Nasdaq got taken to the woodshed after dropping 52 points, or 2%, to settle at 2,587. We were hoping 2,600 would hold but we braced for a test down to 2,575. We had white-knuckles when the index reached a low of 2,576 but we held on as we new 2,550 would hold.
We also have a few November options that are coming down to the wire so we may send out Trade Alerts this morning to take profits, hopefully. One thing good came out of yesterday’s selloff. We were able to keep our winning streak intact as it stretched to 32-straight with the closing of a call option trade that banked our subs 91%.
We also have a couple of important charts we want to cover this morning so it will be important if you are a subscriber to check them out inside our Members Area. We do a pretty good explanation of writing about support and resistance but we wanted to follow-up from Tuesday’s charts to give you a crystal clear picture of how we see things shaking out.
Futures are showing a strong start to today’s session and look like this: Dow (+60), S&P 500 (+7), Nasdaq 100 (+9).
Tags: Dow, S&P 500
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011
8:45am (EST)
Europe’s head honcho’s are falling faster than dominoes as Greece’s Prime Minster dropped first followed by Italy’s – once their austerity budgets pass. Unfortunately, the US will have to wait until 2012 to get some new knuckleheads in office but hopefully they are business people who can create jobs. In any event, we mentioned yesterday in our midday update the action has been hot in the afternoon and the bulls plowed ahead right on cue.
The Dow rolled higher by 102 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 12,170. The index reached a peak of 12,187 and we said to watch for a run to 12,200 first, followed by 12,350.
The S&P jumped 15 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 1,275-and change. The high was 1,277 and we penciled-in 1,300 Sunday night/ Monday morning in our Weekly Wrap.
The Nasdaq popped 32 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,727. We said a run to 2,750 was possible this week and we are halfway there – with the bears living on a prayer.
The push to the next layer of resistance was nice but futures are pointing towards a nasty open this morning which means we will test support again. We had 2 new trades we were looking to get into this morning but let’s see how the action plays out.
Also, be on the lookout for possible Trade Alerts if we close any current recommendations or need to make any adjustments. For those of you who are trading course members, we did a video late last night that is 25 minutes long so we wanted to send today’s morning issue out a little early so you have plenty of time to prepare for today’s action.
As we head to press, here’s the deal: Dow futures (-223); S&P 500 futures (-30); Nasdaq 100 futures (-45).
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, November 8th, 2011
2:10pm (EST)
The action today has been mixed as the bulls took the early lead to push the market higher while the bears are playing catch-up. Wall Street seemed a little uneasy this morning as traders waited on a key vote in Italy’s parliament which ousted its Prime Minister. Silvio Berlusconi, who has a history of shady doings and dealings and he isn’t seen in the brightest light, failed to win an absolute majority which was really no big surprise – although he did win ratification of the budget.
The big concern for Italy will be who replaces him. It is just the latest chapter in the eurozone debt crisis which we said could dominate the headlines for the remainder of 2011.
The indexes have stayed in a tight trading range today as a result which could last into the close unless there is a final hour rally by bulls which we think is likely.
The Dow is up 11 points to 12,079 while the S&P 500 is higher by 3 points to 1,264. The Nasdaq is showing a 10 point pop and is at 2,705 which is bullish.
We are close to adding a few more new trades but we want to close some current ones out, first. We are on the verge of taking profits on a couple more names so we don’t need to push the action. For those of you who have our trading course, we will be doing a video tonight on a few trades that could make our Watch List in the next day or two.
Remember, upgrade to a 1-year membership, save money (you save 25% over the monthly rate), and get our trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, at no charge, along with our ongoing videos. Shipping is also on the house.
Let’s get ready for a push higher, subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, November 7th, 2011
1:05pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so our commentary will be short today as we have an open trade with headline news due out after the bell. Not only has today been busy, we expect a super busy week so stay on your toes.
The bulls have been a little lazy today after jumping out to an early lead. Perhaps they sent some of the herd out to test the waters but the bears appear ready to fight.
The Dow has trade above 12,000 but is down 78 points to 11,904 while the S&P is off by 9 points to 1,244. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points and is at 2,656.
The Financial sector is weighing on the market as Greece seems to be on the back burner while Italy has moved to the front on Europe’s hot stove. We used the weakness to sell our only open put option recommendation for a 33% gain but they continue to move higher as shares move lower.
We will be back in the morning with a full update but the action is inside. We are taking HALF profits on another trade that is up 80% so pay attention to our comments. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX
Posted in Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off
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Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
Now we know why we learned World History in high school.
After a decent start, the market is pulling back on fears of a possible US conflict with Iran. Tensions have been rising for a few weeks over Iran’s threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz which happens to run 15 million barrels a day of oil through its waters, or one-fifth of the global production.
The country has been moved to the top of the global sanctions list due to its thirst for nuclear weapons and said shutting down the Strait would be easier than drinking a glass of H20. The US fired back (possible future pun intended) by saying no way Jose and will take action if Iran attempts to block the 4-mile width passage.
The US has been trying to, ah what’s a good word, “conform” Iran for decades and this threat of war shouldn’t be taken lightly. We aren’t worried about the outcome of who would “win” a war because it is never a good thing but the fight would be swift and Iran would suffer terribly. We are more worried about Iran’s hunger to build a nuclear weapon and the fact that oil could double to $200 if shots are fired.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to battle and cooler heads prevail but this could get ugly.
As far as the impact on the market, the bears are pushing support after the bulls ran the indexes higher at the open. However, once the US/ Iran news started making the rounds on the business channels, stocks pulled back. War doesn’t necessarily mean the market will automatically go lower and there our other countries who share our same interest in keeping the Strait open.
As we head to press, the market is near its lows. The Dow is down 133 points to 12,157 while the S&P 500 is off by 14 points to 1,250. Both indexes have slipped below their 200-day moving averages. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points to 2,595.
We have some more profits to take in case the pullback gets worse but we are looking for support to hold. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, stock market war worries, US+Iran conflict
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off