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Wednesday, September 26th, 2012
1:35pm (EST)
The bulls are trying to rebound today but haven’t had much luck as the bears have controlled the majority of the action. Yesterday’s pullback was slightly bearish and the bears are targeting the second wave of support. If tested, it will be interesting to see if buyers step in or if they are waiting for a much larger pullback which may or may not come.
Today’s economic news was slightly bullish as Housing continues to show a comeback but worries over Spain have Wall Street’s panties in a knot. There is also an ongoing sea battle between China and Japan, and the upcoming earnings could be uninspiring. Given the headwinds, a retest to support levels was a given and we have to be careful of a choppy market going into October.
There are still a number of traders who feel there is a larger correction in store but we will wait for the signs before counting the bulls out.
We have a lot to cover today as we have added 2 New Trades and there are some important updates to go along with our current trades.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 8 points to 13,449 while the S&P 500 is off by 4 points to 1,437. The Nasdaq is lower by 22 points to 3,095 and is below the 3,100 level.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.
Tags: Dow, S&P 500
Posted in Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, August 13th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“Here at home the Federal Reserve did nothing and disappointed the suit-and-ties who were looking for a QE3 sugar fix. We repeatedly said the Fed wouldn’t act but the zombies will be meeting again at the end of the month in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
There is a strong feeling that some type of stimulus package could come in September and if there is, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, could use the conference as his stage. He did in 2010 when he announced a QE (quantitative easing) program which lead to a 10% September rally for the S&P. The index closed at 1,049 on the last day of August 2010 and reached a peak of 1,157 before closing at 1,141 on September 30, 2010.
Of course, the belief was the Fed would have acted this week if Nonfarm payrolls would have been a disaster but the bottom line is they won’t act until the fuse is about to blow. This means the ball will be in Europe’s court until they drop it and the market will still be subject to headline risk.
The key to everything going smoothly for the bulls is Germany which has opposed much of the shenanigans from the weaker countries in the eurozone and seems to be getting tired of the bailouts. Spain could ask for one this week. If Germany goes along with the ECB’s “new plan” then we would expect the market to rally but again, this could take a few weeks.
Economic news will be light this week and 2Q earnings season is winding down. Volume has been super low and August is typically a slow and weak month for Wall Street traders as they get the last of their summer fun in.
The charts are showing mixed signals with the small-caps lacking while Tech and the big-caps are pushing possible new highs. If we get a tenth-straight lower Monday, it would be good news for the bears.
If Monday turns out to be bullish, along with the upcoming Friday, the market could test its highs for the year with a possible breakout on deck. A lower Monday and a negative Friday could mean the indexes have topped and we stay in the trading range with pressure to the downside. However, August election years are tricky as they can sometimes be VERY bullish so both scenarios are possible.” (from 8/5/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bulls were finally able to snap the bears 9-straight Monday win streak and were able to push resistance throughout the week. On Friday, the major indexes closed above another bullish level and could challenge their 52-week highs on continued momentum. The bears were happy to hold the top of the current 3-month trading range but they are losing their bite as the S&P 500 closed higher for the fifth consecutive week.
Tags: 2Q earnings, covered call options, options trading, S&P 500, small cap stocks
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, July 30th, 2012
12:40pm (EST)
We’ve had a busy Monday as we have opened two more new trades for our Daily and we were active with one of our Weekly Wrap trades as well.
The market got an opening pop which held for much of the morning but there has been a steady drift lower as the Wall Street and the world brace for the bevy of headlines due out this week.
We covered much of the “what if’s” and who’s meeting who last night and this morning and there isn’t much to update. Economic news has not been a factor today but will be for the rest of the week.
There are a few earnings reports we will be watching this week, including one for tomorrow, but the bulk of the action will come on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. While we said this morning the bulls could still push upper resistance, it’s good to see the bears have a little fight in them to start the week.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 19 points to 13,057 while the S&P 500 is off 4 points to 1,382. The Nasdaq is lower by 17 points to 2,941.
We have updated our 2 new trades from this morning with exit prices and what to expect this week. Both options were for September so we have plenty of time for the trades to play out.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest and greatest.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, support and resistance
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Tuesday, April 24th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bears had a lot of momentum heading into Monday’s open as headline from around the globe pushed most equity markets lower before Wall Street even opened for business. China came out Sunday night with disappointing manufacturing numbers which weighed on the Asian and European markets while political uncertainty in France also played a role.
The talking heads were encouraged the market finished off its lows but the damage is just beginning if the bears can crack just one more layer of support. It’s funny how the market pros have been calling for a pullback all year and when we finally get one, they panic. After touching new lows they find themselves rooting for a positive close and expect the market to set new highs. This is why they make charts and this is why we tell you not to listen to the suit-and-ties.
The Dow declined 102 points, or 0.8%, to close at 12,927. The index traded to a low of 12,845 but still held current support at 12,800. The ferocious drop of nearly 200 points at the open had us excited as we were able to take profits in 4 trades. We were hoping for a close below support but resistance is back at 13,000 again and we got a lower low.
The S&P 500 gave back a dozen points, or 0.8%, to finish at 1,366. 94. The index bottomed out at 1,358.79 and we are looking for a move below 1,350 this week.
The Nasdaq got hammered for 30 points, or 1%, and ended at 2,970. Tech kissed a low of 2,946 and we were rooting for a close below 2,950. Although we didn’t get it, the action could be a preview of a 100-point drop that is about to take place.
The Russell 2000 also fell a dozen points, or 1.5%, to settle at 791.85. The small-caps traded down to 785 and below 800. We said to look for a push down to 780 which opens the door for a test to 750.
The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 18.97, up 1.53) jumped above 20 to a high of 20.27 to start the session but faded as the bulls bounced off the lows. The index still finished up 9% and closed above 17.50 after breaking above its 10-day moving average.
Futures are pointing towards a mixed open and look like this: Dow (+20); S&P 500 (+1); Nasdaq (-7). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates.
Tags: Dow quotes, futures, option taring, S&P 500
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, February 21st, 2012
12:30pm (EST)
The market went into the weekend looking for some kind of resolution to a second Greece bailout and futures were strong on Sunday night heading into Monday’s meeting in Brussels between Europe’s top brass.
The get together stretched late into the evening but after more finagling, an agreement was finally reached. There are still implantation risks but we will save those worries for another day as the bulls are pushing our near-term fluff targets.
Sailing wasn’t all smooth, however, as the major indexes dipped into the red 20 minutes after the open. Despite a brief attempt by the bears to slow the momentum, the bulls were able to brush back their attack.
The Dow broke above 13,000 about 2 hours into trading as has since flip-flopped above and below this level. The blue-chips are currently up 45 points to 12,995 while the S&P is higher by 5 points to 1,367. The Nasdaq is showing a gain of 7 points to 2,959.
We covered a lot of information this morning as far as the market and what targets to look for this week. Let’s leave it there for now because we have a NEW TRADE we are releasing.
The stock was on our Watch List all last week and shares are slightly lower as we head to press which is allowing us a great opportunity to get into the options. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the details and please use limit orders to get the best fill prices. We will be back in the morning with our next update.
Tags: 000, Dow 13, option trading, S&P 500
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Bulls Trying to Rebound
Wednesday, September 26th, 2012
1:35pm (EST)
The bulls are trying to rebound today but haven’t had much luck as the bears have controlled the majority of the action. Yesterday’s pullback was slightly bearish and the bears are targeting the second wave of support. If tested, it will be interesting to see if buyers step in or if they are waiting for a much larger pullback which may or may not come.
Today’s economic news was slightly bullish as Housing continues to show a comeback but worries over Spain have Wall Street’s panties in a knot. There is also an ongoing sea battle between China and Japan, and the upcoming earnings could be uninspiring. Given the headwinds, a retest to support levels was a given and we have to be careful of a choppy market going into October.
There are still a number of traders who feel there is a larger correction in store but we will wait for the signs before counting the bulls out.
We have a lot to cover today as we have added 2 New Trades and there are some important updates to go along with our current trades.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 8 points to 13,449 while the S&P 500 is off by 4 points to 1,437. The Nasdaq is lower by 22 points to 3,095 and is below the 3,100 level.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.
Tags: Dow, S&P 500
Posted in Market Commentary | Comments Off