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Posts Tagged ‘Research in Motion’

Apple (AAPL) Moving In On RIMM’s Turf

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010

12:50pm (EST)

The market is mixed after getting off to a good start but less than stellar economic news has cooled the enthusiasm.  Earnings continue to dominate the headlines but the bulls are having trouble breaking through the upper resistance levels we outlined in the morning update.

The consumer confidence report came in at 50.4 for July which was only slightly below expectations of 51 but down from last month’s reading of 54.3.  However, to put things in perspective, the decline follows last month’s nearly 10-point drop, from 62.7 in May.  This report takes a pulse of the American consumer on how they feel about the economy, jobs and their outlook and it clearly shows they are still holding back on spending.

Elsewhere, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index posted a 1.3% increase in May from April as 19 of 20 cities showed price gains month over month.  Of course, this was helped by the federal tax incentives which attracted some buyers into the market but we expect prices to remain flat or down for housing over the next six months.

Turning to earnings, Dupont (DD, $40.52, up $1.53) is up 4% after reporting better-than-expected results.  The company said profits came in at $1.2 billion, or $1.26 a share, versus $417 million, or $0.41 a share, in the year-ago period. 

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Revenue jumped 25% to $8.6 billion while analysts were expecting $8.3 billion/ $0.94 a share.  DuPont also raised its 2010 earnings forecast to $2.90-$3.05 a share, up from $2.50-$2.70 and above Wall Street’s expectations of $2.64 a share.

U.S. Steel (X, $45.93, down $2.96) is getting pounded and is down 6% today after reporting a negative numbers for its most recent quarter.  Before the open, the company reported a loss of $25 million, or $0.17 a share, versus a loss of $392 million, or $2.92 a share, in the year-ago period.  Revenue rose to $4.7 billion from $2.1 billion.  Excluding items, U.S. Steel would have earned $0.45 a share but blamed the weakening of the euro against the dollar during the quarter for the miss.

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And this just in, Apple (AAPL, $262.69, up $3.41) plans to sell an unlocked iPhone 4 in Canada starting on Friday.  The company is moving in Research In Motion’s (RIMM, $53.82, down $1.71) own backyard and plans to allow customers to shop around for a service plan.

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As we head to press, the Dow is currently holding a slight gain of 27 points and is at 10,552 while the S&P 500 is up a point to 1,116.  The Nasdaq is lower by 4 points and is at 2,292.  Upside targets are Dow 10,600; S&P 1,125; and Nasdaq 2,300.  To the downside look for Dow 10,400, S&P 1,100; and Nasdaq 2,250.

We will be back in the morning with another full update at 9am.  We have updated our current trades as we have one company reporting earnings before the bell on Wednesday.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for our latest comments.  

RIMM Tops Estimates, Falls Short on Revenue

Friday, June 25th, 2010

9:00am (EST)

The bears continued their assault on the bulls Thursday following a pattern of late-day sell-offs that has carried the market generally lower all week. 

Yesterday’s weakness came after the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims declined 19,000 week-over-week to 457,000 which was roughly in-line with the 460,000 that had been expected. 

The market also got a worse-than-expected durable goods number, and the ongoing debate over the pending financial reform bill had an impact on the Financial stocks.  More on this in a minute…

As a result, the Dow dropped 146 points, or 1.4%, and closed at 10,152.  The index finished right near its low and took out the 20-day moving average (MA) in the process.  If we get a repeat today and slip below 10,000 then next week could be a doozy.

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The S&P 500 fell 18 points, or 1.7%, to settle at 1,073.  The level Wall Street will be watching today is the 1,040 mark and if that is taken out then we could see a triple-digit index real soon.

The Nasdaq gave back 36 points, or 1.6%, to finish at 2,217.  More importantly, the index failed support at 2,240 and looks like it could be headed to 2K.

Research In Motion (RIMM, $58.58, down $1.06) is down $3 in pre-market trading after reporting earnings after the close on Thursday.

The company posted a profit of $769 million, or $1.38 a share, versus $643 million, or $1.12, in the year earlier period.  Revenue rose 24% to $4.2 billion.  Wall Street was looking for $1.34 a share, on revenues of $4.4 billion.

RIMM said it shipped 11 million units and added 4.5 million new subscribers.  These figures were at the at the low end of the company’s forecast range, but fell short of the 11.5 million and the 5 million new subscribers that analysts had penciled in.

Overall, this was a solid report from RIMM, but we showed you the writing on the wall yesterday.  The company plans to unveil a new line of handsets, perhaps by the end of the summer, but RIMM is playing catch-up to other rivals now.  It used to be the other way around.

The “other” big news this morning is the financial regulation reform bill appears closer to being signed as Congress pulled an all-nighter to get the final details hammered out.  The bill is expected to be signed next week by the president and brings sweeping changes to Wall Street and some of their business practices.

Futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open this morning as the bears try to close the week with a sweep.  They have been making noise all week and have shaved about 4% off the major indexes since Monday.

As we head to press, Dow futures are down 14 points to 10,085 while the S&P 500 futures are off by 2 points to 1,068.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by 3 points to 1,846.

Make Or Break Quarter For RIMM?

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

1:00pm (EST)

Second quarter earnings season is right around the corner, but we get an early present with Research In Motion (RIMM, $58.82, down $0.82) reporting after the close today.  The announcement is so important and will offer a sneak peek into how much the smart-phone playing field is leveling. 

rimm062410

Here’s a hint. 

Apple’s (AAPL, $270.00, down $0.97) iPhone had a 15% share of the global smart-phone market by the end of the first quarter.  A year before that, Apple had a little over 10%. 

Google’s (GOOG, $477.76, down $4.29) Droid/ Android gadgets currently have a 10% market share.  What’s scary for RIMM, and why we think they could disappoint Wall Street, is that Goog’s only had about 2% of the market a year ago.  

Both Apple and Google have just launched new phones.  We hate to say it, but RIMM has been asleep at the wheel for years!  They use to OWN the smart-phone market, and if they don’t wow Wall Street after the bell then we could easily see a 10% or more drop in their shares.

RIMM has missed the droves of new people getting a smart-phone, and you can almost bet the top two choices are going to be the iPhone or a Droid.  This could get interesting.

As far as the market goes, the bears are looking for blood, and they have the bulls backed into a corner.  We have been calling for a correction and last week delayed our thesis but the charts aren’t lying, folks.  We could be setting up for a NASTY correction by tomorrow, and next week could be brutal if you are a bull.

The Dow is currently down 88 points to 10,210 while the S&P 500 is off by 12 to 1,079.  The Nasdaq is getting punished for 25 points and was last seen at 2,228.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

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    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
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    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

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    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

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    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

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    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

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    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

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    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

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