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Friday, January 27th, 2012
1:15pm (EST)
We said no Greece deal would weigh on the market this week and perhaps keep the reins on the bulls. If the closing bell sounded right now, the week would end mixed with Tech showing the only positive finish.
The Dow came into the week at 12,720 and is at 12,646, down 88 points.
The S&P 500 started Monday at 1,315 and is currently down 5 points to 1,313.
The Nasdaq began the week at 2,786 and is at 2,808, up 3 points.
Over a quarter of the S&P 500 companies have announced earnings this week and next week marks the height of the season before we start tapering off. Some of the companies we will be watching like a hawk next week include Aflac (AFL, $48.70, down $0.08), Amazon.Com (AMZN, $195.20, up $1.88), Broadcom (BRCM, $35.20, down $0.09) and United Parcel Service (UPS, $75.98, up $0.14) on Tuesday.
Wednesday, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, $364.80, down $1.01), Electronic Arts (EA, $17.91, up $0.25), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $52.61, up $3.27), Hershey (HSY, $61.37, down $0.16), Las Vegas Sands (LVS, $49.22, up $0.25) and Qualcomm (QCOM, $57.62, down $0.20) will announce their quarterly results.
Thursday and Friday will also feature some companies of interest and these are some of the main stocks we actively follow just to name a dozen or so.
We continue to chuckle when we hear that stock picking is a lost art, which we have heard for the last 3 months. We must be doing something good to hit 17-out-of-18 wininng trades to start the year for our Daily and to go 23-0 over the last 13 months for our Weekly Wrap covered call trade Portfilios.
We have some last minute updates to the 2 new trades we added this morning as we have added our exit targets. Let’s go see where we are at inside the Members Area.
January has been incredibly good to us and we will cover the charts for the indexes and our current trades on Sunday night in our Weekly Wrap and Monday morning for the Daily. We have a busy weekend of homework but it isn’t “work” because we have been banking profits all month long. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Tags: AFL, AMZN, CMG, dndn, EA, GMCR, HSY, LVS, QCOM, UPS
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, December 20th, 2010
9:10am (EST)
Futures were pointing towards a lower open last night after South Korea ran a few military drills over the weekend. Although North Korea said it would not retaliate after South Korea’s artillery tests, things were touchy but seem to calm down after the North’s willingness to permit United Nations nuclear inspectors to return.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) here at home have helped futures turn green as AT&T (T, $29.21, down $0.02) said it would buy wireless spectrum from Qualcomm (QCOM, $49.46, down $0.19) in a deal worth $2 billion to help buildout its high-speed network.
Elsewhere, EarthLink (ELNK, $8.98, down $0.04) made a bid for One Communications for $370 million, and Raytheon (RTN, $45.17, down $0.22) said it would acquire Applied Signal Technology (APSG, $35.02, up $0.73) for $490 million.
There was also some good news for retailers as comScore said U.S. online sales are up 12% to $27.5 billion so far this season compared with a year ago.
We have a lot to cover this morning inside our Members Area and we will be releasing the latest training video for our manual “How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks” in a few hours. The video is a little over 20 minutes and we cover a number of possible earnings trades but only walked away with one candidate which we profile on our Watch List.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up 30 points while S&P futures are up 5 points. The Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 10 points. Subscribers, check for the important updates and watch Chesapeake Energy (CHK, $23.30, down $0.27) today.
Tags: binary options, call option, ELNK, how to trade options, option picks, options mentoring, options trading service, put option, QCOM, T
Posted in Market Analysis, Mergers and Acquisitions | Comments Off
Friday, April 23rd, 2010
9:00am (EST)
The Dow continued its winning ways on Thursday as the bulls battled back from a 1% drubbing to take the Dow higher for the 4th straight day. The bears were doing some damage as the market started with a quick trip into negative territory with disappointing forecasts from eBay (EBAY, $24.78, down $1.51) and Qualcomm (QCOM, $39.33, down $3.30) fueling the fire.
Qualcomm beat on earnings and raised their dividend but gave weak guidance going forward while eBay echoed the same latter comments. However, the bulls used other good earnings news and forecasts to lift the market higher as Sandisk (SNDK, $42.22, up $4.63) and Starbucks (SBUX, $27.25, up $1.86) reported outstanding results.
There were a couple of economic reports that also helped the bulls’ case.
The Department of Labor said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 456,000 last week from 484,000 in the previous week.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales rose 7% to a 5.35 million units from a 5.02 million. Wall Street was expecting sales to come in at 5.28 million.
As a result, the market finished with slight gains asthe Dow ended at 11,134, up 9 points. The S&P 500 added 3 points to finish at 1,208 while the Nasdaq added two touchdowns and settled at 2,519.
Selling was intense for much of yesterday after Moody’s (MCO, $26.06, up $0.37) downgraded Greece’s debt ratings (after the fact) while President Obama preached to America about how terrible Wall Street is.
It’s Friday, so we are going to take a jab.
Wall Street shouldn’t take the brunt of the financial woes…it was everybody in America who got in when the gettin’ was good. Wall Street didn’t write all of the subprime loans and 2nd mortgages that brought the housing market to its knees. Does Washington realize how many mom and pop realtors popped up and the real estate agents and appraisers who worked the deals? Did ALL of them work for Wall Street? Didn’t think so.
Was it really realistic that someone who made $8 an hour was able to afford a $300,000 home? No. Yet, realtors we selling them a home based on “no doc” loans. Credit rating below 500? No problem. Anybody could get a loan and if you didn’t make enough you could get a loan based on what you thought you would make in the future.
Back in the day you had to work you butt off to get a house (we did) and the process took months. At the height of the housing bubble, deals were done in a day or so.
So, in the end it was all of us from around the world who caused this mess, not just Wall Street.
We said a few weeks ago that Washington is smarter than Wall Street but wanted to set the facts straight… at least from our point of view.
Moody’s is a joke but that is for another day. If you get bored over the weekend, use our “Search” feature to scan the archives for our two cents on the company.
Some of our trades are making some nice moves so we want to get our subscribers in the Members Area. As we head to press, Dow futures are up 4 points to 11,072 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 2 to 1,203. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 8 to 2,044.
Tags: eBay, MCO, option picks, option signals, options alerts, QCOM, SBUX, SNDK, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, March 26th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
The bulls were in the driver’s seat on Thursday – in cruise control – until they hit a traffic jam late in the day. The market soared at the open as the bulls exploited Wednesday’s dip as an opportune time to buy. The short-sellers were crying “uncle”.
We got a hat trick of good news before the bell, 1) Qualcomm (QCOM, $42.19, up $2.00) upped its yearly outlook, 2) Best Buy (BBY, $42.66, up $1.48) banged out an incredible earnings report and 3) jobless claims fell for the fourth consecutive week. And to top it off, Bernanke testified before Congress and reiterated the need for an extended period of record-low interest rates.
Add it all up and you can see why the bulls were cruising.
However, after tapping fresh 52-week highs, the keg ran dry with about an hour before the bell as the market rolled-over amid ongoing concerns over Greece’s debt. We may be closer to a resolution as the European Union (EU) is currently debating a solution for Greece’s bills. The hang-up is if they are going to dip into the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to do a bailout.
As a result, the euro tanked, the U.S. dollar jumped and the bulls’ momentum came to a screeching halt. Another roadblock was an auction for government debt which drew less interest than in past months.
The boys on the hill sold $32 billion in seven-year notes and bond prices tanked. If the government has to boost interest rates to entice buyers then they run the risk of hurting the economy by driving up borrowing costs.
The Dow managed to finish with a 5 point gain and finished at 10,841 but reached a high of 10,955 before falling back. The S&P 500 slipped 2 points and closed at 1,165 after touching a high of 1,180.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped a point and settled at 2,397. The index kissed 2,432 then got slapped.
Of course, that was yesterday and this morning it looks like the bulls are ready to ride again.
The Commerce Department reported that the economy grew at a 5.6% pace in the October-to-December quarter in its third and final estimate of economic activity during the period.
The government first estimated that the economy grew at a 5.7% pace in the fourth quarter then boosted that estimate to a 5.9% pace last month before lowering it slightly, again, last Friday.
Futures were already pointing towards a higher open and stayed strong after the report. We would like to see the bulls hold today’s opening gains throughout the day.
As we head to press, Dow futures are higher by 21 points to 10,812 while the S&P futures are showing a 3 point pop to 1,165. The Nasdaq futures are up 8 to 1,958.
Tags: BBY, Best Buy, option picks, option signals, options alerts, QCOM, Qualcom upgrade, stock options trading
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, March 19th, 2010
1:05pm (EST)
The looming U.S. Congressional vote to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system this weekend is putting a huge drag on the market as Wall Street prepares for the outcome. The market has fallen to session lows and it’s hard to say how this impacts Wall Street come Monday.
The concern from our camp is how the U.S. can pay for such a massive bill and the effects it will have on corporate America. Wall Street is not happy about the bill and you can see the nervousness as traders are locking in profits ahead of the weekend.
From a technical view, here is where we are.
The Dow is currently down 60 points to 10,719 after reaching a high of 10,819. As you know, we have been pounding the table on Dow 10,800 and as soon as we hit it the index today we faded. We are hoping for a close above this level and a push towards 11,000 but that looks unlikely today.
The S&P 500 is off by 7 points and is trading at 1,159 after reaching 1,169. Our targets are 1,175 and then 1,200 for the index but we also faded at that first level of resistance. The key level to watch to the downside is 1,150. A break below this level could lead to more selling pressure.
The Nasdaq is at 2,370, down 21 points, and has traded to a high of 2,396. We have been calling for 2,400 and this level was hit on Wednesday. The fact that we keep running up to this level and falling back is a little troublesome but we haven’t given up hope on a push towards 2,500.
Despite the concern over the health plan bill, the market can still go higher. All of the talking heads are calling for a huge pullback but they have missed the rally over the last 3 weeks. However, go by “feel” and all signs were pointing to a retest of the January highs.
Although the market faces serious headwinds and next week is a toss-up as far as direction, there are a number of positive catalysts that can carry us higher. First quarter earnings will start to roll in at the beginning of April and we think the numbers are going to be fantastic. We also have a shot at a better-than-expected jobs report in April and these two events could prove the economy is back on track and gaining strength.
As far as specific stocks today, HealthCare shares are having a good day. The group is up almost over 2% and is being led by Aetna (AET, $34.40, up $1.16), Cigna (CI, $37.56, up $1.72) and Wellpoint (WLP, $65.54, up $1.72).
The HealthCare sector has lagged the rest of the market for the past two months and a positive vote could remove some of the uncertain overhang from the stock of managed care companies. We expect to see a “buy the news” situation versus the “sell the news” we often talk about and we are seeing a little of that today.
Elsewhere, Palm (PALM, $4.42, down $1.23) is down over 20% and we wanted to follow-up on a couple of options we profiled this morning. The March 5 puts (UPY100320P00005000, $0.48, up $0.31) closed at 17 cents yesterday and are up 180% today. The April 5 puts (UPY100417P00005000, $0.90, up $0.45) have doubled.
We didn’t pull the trigger on these options but we have done well with some of our other trades this week. We were able to close two trades for winners this week so we can’t complain. Our subscribers booked nearly a 200% gain with Nike (NKE, $73.38, down $1.28) as they were stopped out of the other half of the trade this morning and over a 40% gain in Qualcomm (QCOM, $39.87, down $0.56) yesterday. We aren’t too worried about what the outcome of the health bill will be because we can trade any kind of market.
If it looks like the market heads lower or is going to tank then we will start looking at put options. And this is the way you should think. Look, we will play the market higher if that is the case but most investors are scared to play in the market when it is going down. Don’t be.
You can make just as much money in a down market as you can in an up market.
All of our 2010 CLOSED trades will be updated after the bell today so look for an update over the weekend for those of you who haven’t joined us. For our current subscribers, let’s get to the Members Area for the updates…
We will be back with our Weekly Wrap Sunday Night and it is one you won’t want to miss. Hopefully, we will have the healthcare news by the time we go to press and what you can expect come Monday morning.
Tags: health care vote, Nike call options, NKE options, Obamacare vote, option picks, option signals, options alerts, QCOM, Qualcomm call options, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Sectors | Comments Off
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Bears Hold Weekly Edge
Friday, January 27th, 2012
1:15pm (EST)
We said no Greece deal would weigh on the market this week and perhaps keep the reins on the bulls. If the closing bell sounded right now, the week would end mixed with Tech showing the only positive finish.
The Dow came into the week at 12,720 and is at 12,646, down 88 points.
The S&P 500 started Monday at 1,315 and is currently down 5 points to 1,313.
The Nasdaq began the week at 2,786 and is at 2,808, up 3 points.
Over a quarter of the S&P 500 companies have announced earnings this week and next week marks the height of the season before we start tapering off. Some of the companies we will be watching like a hawk next week include Aflac (AFL, $48.70, down $0.08), Amazon.Com (AMZN, $195.20, up $1.88), Broadcom (BRCM, $35.20, down $0.09) and United Parcel Service (UPS, $75.98, up $0.14) on Tuesday.
Wednesday, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, $364.80, down $1.01), Electronic Arts (EA, $17.91, up $0.25), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $52.61, up $3.27), Hershey (HSY, $61.37, down $0.16), Las Vegas Sands (LVS, $49.22, up $0.25) and Qualcomm (QCOM, $57.62, down $0.20) will announce their quarterly results.
Thursday and Friday will also feature some companies of interest and these are some of the main stocks we actively follow just to name a dozen or so.
We continue to chuckle when we hear that stock picking is a lost art, which we have heard for the last 3 months. We must be doing something good to hit 17-out-of-18 wininng trades to start the year for our Daily and to go 23-0 over the last 13 months for our Weekly Wrap covered call trade Portfilios.
We have some last minute updates to the 2 new trades we added this morning as we have added our exit targets. Let’s go see where we are at inside the Members Area.
January has been incredibly good to us and we will cover the charts for the indexes and our current trades on Sunday night in our Weekly Wrap and Monday morning for the Daily. We have a busy weekend of homework but it isn’t “work” because we have been banking profits all month long. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Tags: AFL, AMZN, CMG, dndn, EA, GMCR, HSY, LVS, QCOM, UPS
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off