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Posts Tagged ‘Potash’

Creating Watch Lists

Thursday, June 18th, 2009

9:00am (EST)

In the past, I have talked about keeping Watch Lists and today I wanted to expand on this subject a little further. Most brokerage accounts or financial sites allow you to set up Watch Lists and they are used to help you keep track of stocks. They are also helpful because once you set them up you can quickly scan hundreds of stocks to see where the money is moving.

Look, sectors of the market get hot and cold and money is always rotating in and out of Tech, Gold, Financials, etc. There are different reasons for this and over time you will learn where the money is flowing and why. Watch Lists can also help you learn charting and once you follow them everyday, you will easily start to remember how certain stocks trade.

The first Watch List you want to create is five stocks that YOU like. You can call this Watch List whatever you want. If you are new to trading, pick a basket of stocks that represent different sectors. Once you do that, you can start creating other Watch Lists for sectors that you follow.

For instance, if you had Intel (INTC, $16.14, up $0.28) in you favorite Watch List, you could start another Watch List for the Chip sector. Here you can add Rambus (RMBS, $18.76, up $0.25), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, $4.08, down $0.05) and Texas Instruments (TXN, $21.41, up $0.68).

One sector that is took a huge hit on Wednesday was the Agriculture/ Fertilizer sector. On my Watch List I have Agrium (AGU, $42.79, down $3.44), Monsanto (MON, $81.08, down $0.54), Mosaic (MOS, $46.25, down $4.96) and Potash (POT, $95.59, down $11.59).

Potash got smoked, falling 11,%, and has been a frequent topic of the blog and other articles I have done over the years. Most recently, on March 15th I had this to say when the stock was at $76 a share:

“After a slow start, this trade finally came to life as Potash added $10 for the week. The (April 100) call options traded as high as $1.85 on Friday so we were slightly positive for a minute as the shares were pushing $80. Springtime is here this week which means the farmers are starting to spread fertilizer on their fields. The risk for this trade is the news that several potash producers in Russia have dropped prices 25%, putting pressure on others to do the same. Potash, the company, has responded by slashing production which should help support prices. Because of this, I’ve lowered the exit target to $2.25 and raised the stop to $1.25.”

The trade lost 25% and here were my closing thoughts:

“Potash shares hit a high of over $80 on Thursday and Friday and this position was slightly positive before the stock took a dive in the last few hours of trading. However, we were out on Tuesday when our stop of $1.25 was hit. I had said that the risk for this trade was the news that several potash producers in Russia had dropped potash prices 25% and that caught up to us. The rebound was nice to see but the trade was busted once this news had come out.”

Well, I didn’t trust a move higher in Potash but it eventually rallied from $76 to $120 by June 1st. I have profiled several triple-digit return trades on Potash (both call and put option trades) and I was thisclose from hitting another one. Back in March, you could have picked up the June 100 calls (PYPFT, $0.85, down $6.75) for $2-$3 (or less) and sold them for $20 last week. That is mad profits. Yesterday, they closed under $1.

The reason for the big drop in Potash was news that a European producer was lowering its sales guidance and said that it was cutting prices for potash. In English, it means we have an inventory glut; just what Russia had warned about 3 months ago.

As you can see, the June calls got punished yesterday. It is a great example on how fast the June options can swing in price because they expire Friday. On the other hand, the June 100 puts (PYPRT, $5.20, up $4.65) soared 845% folks. Once the stock made a 50% gain off its lows, it was only a matter of time before some sort of pullback happened.

Now, to find a trade or to see even if there is one, you would look at where support is at. The chart shows short-term support at $94-$95 so the next couple of days will be crucial for Potash. Plus the technicals have suddenly turned bearish and Potash’s 200-day moving average now comes into play.

If we get a drop below $94 then there could be more of a breakdown coming. At quick glance, a test to the low $80’s might be in the cards. But we aren’t taking any actions yet. However, you could also add the Potash July 85 puts (PYPSQ, $3.50, up $1.90, or 118%) as part of your Watch List to see how they trade over the next month.

You could also add the July 120 calls (PYPGD, $0.90, down $1.75, or 66%) if you expect a rebound but they are now $25 out-of-the-money. That is a lot to make up in a month and these call options are nearly 5 “strikes” away from the current strike price. This would already scare me away from going long with this option. Another tip. When doing direction trades, try not to go more than 2 or 3 strike prices out for short-term trades. Sometimes if it is a really speculative play, then maybe, but most of the time I try to keep strike prices within reach.

These are some of the steps I go thru when I look at a trade. We are not taking any action with the July puts but I have a lot of new readers and I’m trying to multi-task here. The point of this blog was to get you organized and for you to come up with Watch Lists. That means you should already have three to start which should be anywhere from 10-15 stocks. I gave you 4 in the Chip sector, 4 in the AG sector, and YOU are going to come up with 3-5 of your favorites.

Over time, you will learn how some of the patterns these stocks display which will lead you to some great trades down the road.

 

Rick Rouse

Rick@TheOptionInvestor.com

Weekly Wrap for 3/22/09

Sunday, March 22nd, 2009

1. Commentary
2. Take-Two Revisited
3. Is Dendreon Headed for Double Digits?
4. Earnings
5. Current Trades
6. Monday Morning Playbook
7. Closing Thoughts

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1. Commentary

The market got off to a good start last week but struggled to hold onto gains by the end of a five-day work week. It was pretty volatile but I had mentioned that there was a good chance for us to close higher for the week. We did, but Friday was a struggle. After the financial stocks lost steam and with it being quadruple options expiration day, the sentiment was negative which led to many stocks being pushed below key option strike prices.

When it was all said and done, the Dow still managed nearly a 1% gain for the week by adding 54 points to finish as 7,278. The Dow hit a peak of 7,624 and tested a key resistance level Thursday morning before fading but still held major support at 7,000-7,200. The upper-end range that I had targeted for the Dow was 7,600-7,800 so I knew we could retreat once we pushed up against these levels.

The Nasdaq advanced by 26 points, or 1.8%, to close at 1,457. We were looking for 1,500 and sure enough the Nasdaq traded to a high of 1,509 but could not close above this level Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday despite trading above it all three days. It will be important for the Nasdaq to hold the 1,400 level.

The S&P 500 chipped in with a 12 point gain, or 1.6%, and ended the week at 768. It too, mirrored the Dow and Nasdaq and made a run to 800. That is where we ran out of gas and for the S&P 500 to hold 765 was a relief for the bulls.

Naturally, we were due for a pullback as the market had gained about 20% in two weeks. However, I’ve talked about “bear market bounces” and I’m not so sure we have seen the last of this rally. The problem was that the currrent bounce ran right into resistance and it could be a struggle to clear those hurdles. If the market can clear the 50-day moving averages then we could rally into April which is where the old Wall Street adage could come into play…”Sell in May and go away”. We still have to get through March though and first quarter earnings will come into play over the next few weeks. So you can see how this is shaping up.

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2. Take-Two Revisited

A couple of weeks ago I talked about the idea of going long on Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO, $8.57, up $0.42). At the time, the stock was at $6.85 and the company was reporting earnings in a couple of days. I get a lot of emails on how I come up with trade ideas so I thought I would walk everybody through this one in more detail.

To start, a lot of my ideas come from my Watch Lists which I have covered numerous times and if you haven’t started one (or 10) then start with one and go from there. You can start with an “Oil” stock Watch List, or a “Bank” Watch List, or a “Gaming” stock Watch List. Take-Two is one of the stocks on my Gaming Watch List so I follow it daily.

The first thing I told you about was the hostile takeover that the company had rejected with Electronic Arts (ERTS, $18.22, down $0.72). The offer was $27 a share and at the time, Take-Two told its shareholders that the company would be better off if it remained independent. That trust has been put to the test.

I felt there was a good chance the company could beat the lowered expectations with its earnings report which would be a start in the right direction. I wasn’t getting too excited though because the company had been bleeding money and they were expected to report another loss.

What I was excited about was the deal I told you Take-Two has with Microsoft (MSFT, $17.06, down $0.08). Digital delivery is picking up steam and Take-Two can cash in by doing episode installments on its most popular games. Not only that, I think Take-Two could still be a nice acquisition target and that area has been super hot lately.

Having said all of that, I’m also a realistic and the stock’s move from $7 to $9 has been pretty quick especially when the company gave a second quarter outlook that was below Wall Street’s expectations. Perhaps the company is “sand-bagging” its numbers and doesn’t know what shape digital delivery will take but the rally in the stock has been good for the June 10 calls (TUOFB, $0.85, up $0.20).

These call options were trading for 25 cents at the time of the original write-up and as you can see, they are up 200%. These were cheap “out-of-the-money” options that I said would be worth $1.00 if the stock can make it to $11. If the shares can make it to $10.50, I said it would still be a double. Well, lucky for us, the trade has already reached our expectations without the stock having to break double-digits.

If you had invested $500 to buy 20 contracts, you are now looking at $1,700 in your account. If you didn’t close the trade with Friday’s 5% pop in the stock then at least set stops at 75 cents or even 65 cents. We were looking to cash out between $1,000 and $2,000 and as you can see, we have pretty much reached the top. Yes, you could close only half of the position but once a trade has performed this well, why push it? The stop will keep you in and raise it along the way if the stock continues higher.

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3. Is Dendreon Headed for Double Digits?

I did a write-up on Dendreon (DNDN, $4.02, down $0.12) last Thursday in the blog and I wanted to run it in the Weekly Wrap in case you missed it. I have updated the quotes to reflect Friday’s closing prices. Nothing has really changed except the fact that DryShips (DRYS, $4.49, down $0.83) went up and down like a yo-yo Thursday and Friday. I have received a ton of email on Dendreon so I added an update at the end. –

“Investing in Biotech stocks can be an exciting, yet risky investment. Investing in Biotech options can takes that same risk/ reward to another level. Assessing how these stocks react to certain news concerning FDA approvals and clinical trials is an art in itself and requires specialized knowledge. However, once you learn the process, there are times where the profits you can make off one trade will be more than most people make in a year.

Biotech stocks can experience extreme volatility as drugs pass through different phases and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) processes. In most cases, the rise and fall of a company’s stock price can be tied to one important drug. It’s the one drug that can take a small biotech firm and make it into a major one. All it takes is a billion dollar drug.

When you hear about a company’s drug passing through clinical trials you want to watch for how effective the drug is and if there is a good chance it can gain approval. Then you have to figure out what the potential sales for the drug are.

The homework is essential because options traders live for these types of trades because if you own the right call or put options they can make you as much as 500%-800% on the news. That was not a typo.

One stock that I have been watching for a couple of years now may be on the verge of doing just that.

Dendreon (DNDN, $4.02, down $0.12) has been making headlines lately after reporting better-than-expected earnings but Wall Street is eagerly awaiting the outcome on one of its cancer drugs, Provenge. This is Dendreon’s crown jewel and it targets Prostate cancer which is the second most common cancer affecting men in the U.S. and one of the leading causes of cancer-related death.

A couple of years ago, Dendreon was in the exact same spot it is in now and back then I talked about the risk and rewards of playing these types of events. I profiled both call and put options that made 500% moves in a matter of days. On 3/28/07, the stock was halted on a Wednesday at $5.22 and did not open until Friday. When the stock did open, it was at $17.92 but finished the day at $12.

The April 5 calls were trading at $1.25 on that Wednesday. Guess where they OPENED on Friday morning? $12.60. The calls eventually closed around $8 for a 500% gain in less than two days.

Dendreon would make it to a high of $25 by 4/10/07 but was back down to $5 a month later after Provenge did not get FDA approval. Dendreon’s shares were rising and falling that fast as the debate about whether or not Provenge would get FDA approval.

The reason for the rapid rise and sudden fall was due to the FDA panel saying Provenge is safe, and that there was “substantial evidence” that it works in treating advanced prostate cancer. In other words, traders were taking the panel’s word as a sign the drug was going to get approved but the FDA does not have to follow the panel’s recommendation. At the time, the panel had said that the drug needed further study before it can be approved, but voted “Yes” by a 13-to-4 margin. That is what pushed the stock from $5 to $25. When the FDA denied approval, Dendreon shares tanked back below $7 on the news.

Fast-forward to today.

Dendreon was expected to submit to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration last year but the application for Provenge has been delayed until now. The good news is that the final results from the study shows that the drug reduces the risk of death by 20%. The company expects the final results of the study to be released in late April.

It’s difficult to value a company’s pipeline, but assuming Provenge could become a breakthrough treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer, I would guess sales could have the potential to reach $1 billion. Based on this forecast, it is why this stock hit $25 to $30 a share.

Since we aren’t expecting the announcement until late April the first option chain we can look at is the May call options. The one thing I want to show you is how much the options are trading at a premium.

Here is a list of the four closest strike prices for the Dendreon May call options:

May 5 call (UKOEA, $1.92, down $0.03 $0.22) Bid: $1.89, Ask: $1.98
May 7.5 call (OKOEU, $1.56, up $0.01) Bid: $1.45, Ask: $1.52
May 10 call (OKOEB, $1.12, down $0.11) Bid: $1.12, Ask: $1.15
May 12.50 call (OKOEV, $0.86, down $0.10) Bid: $0.86, Ask: $0.90
May 20 call (OKOED, $0.20, down $0.10) Bid: $0.41, Ask: $0.50

Now look at the options for DryShips (DRYS, $4.49, down $0.83). These are June options because the May options have yet to list and there are no June options for Dendreon.

June 5 call (OOCFA, $1.30, down $0.45) Bid:$1.25, Ask: $1.35
June 10 call (OOCFB, $0.35, down $0.25) Bid:$0.35, Ask $0.45
June 20 call (OOCFD, $0.10, unchanged) Bid: $0.05, Ask $0.10

The June options are even further out then the May options and both stocks are under $5. Yet, notice the huge price difference in the both the 10 and 20 call options prices.
So here is the bottom line. If you believe history has a chance to repeat itself and Dendreon will trade from $5 to $25, how do you play it?

The May 5 calls are going for $2.25. Let’s say the stock hits $15 before $20. For $2,250 you could buy 10 call options. If Dendreon hits $15, the investment is worth at least $10,000 because the options would be in-the-money by $10. If the stock hits $20, you’re at $15,000.

The May 10 calls are selling for $1.30. For $2,600 you could buy 20 call options. If the shares are at $15 that gives the options a $5 in-the-money profit and you would net you $10,000. If the stock is at $20, you’re at $20,000.

There’s more bang for the buck with the 10’s but if Dendreon doesn’t mirror the move that the stock made two years ago, there is also the chance of a bigger loss.

You could buy half of each if you really wanted to and you can play around with the figures on the other strike prices to see what you get. In fact, if any of you need help figuring out where an option will trade when a stock hits a certain price, email me.

As you can see, there are a lot of ways to play this so figure out what suits you.

Either way, expect more volatility in the coming weeks as Dendreon moves closer to its expected FDA ruling. The average daily volume is around 2 million shares and on March 13, the stock traded 8 million shares after its earnings release.

Two years ago volume approached 93 million shares that Friday which was more than the 76 million shares the company had outstanding at the time.

The 52-week high for Dendreon is $10 and I would expect that we go higher than that if the drug is approved. This is a high risk trade with the chance of either hitting it big or losing much of the capital you put up if the drug is NOT approved.

Of course, I’ve been mentioning buying 10 contracts of the May 10 call options but here is one instance where even a $130 could turn into $500. It’s like getting 5-to-1, or 10-1 on your money on something that looks pretty positive. There will be no stops for these positions.” –

Update: On Friday, I did some more research and decided to put my money where my mouth is. I bought 7 contracts of the Dendreon April 10 calls (UKODB, $0.35, down $0.10) at 40 cents. I also picked up the 5 of the May 7.50 calls (OKOEU, $1.45, unchanged) for $1.50 each. With commissions the trades cost me a total of $1,060.

I purchased some of the April contracts in case any news starts to leak out early. There was plenty of press two years ago as we got near the end of March and the panel’s recommendation was out before April 15. These were “cheap” out-of-the-money calls and only cost be $300. If Dendreon can get a push like we witnessed 24 months ago and can trade to $15 by April 17 then this position could clear as much as $7,000. If the stock is at $20, these two trades could pull in nearly $14,000. Wow….

Again, this trade isn’t for everyone and I could easily loose $1,000. If Provenge doesn’t get approval or if it does and the stock only rallies to $6 or $8 then I could be taking a bloodbath. However, I’m fully aware of what the outcome is so I don’t mind taking the risk.

From my research, the company needs that 20% extended survival rate number to get to 22% for the drug to get approval. That may not seem like a lot but without getting too technical, it is. That 2% will have many moving parts associated with the results so it isn’t 100% certain we get there.

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4. Earnings

Monday: Focus Media Holding (FMCN, $5.80, up $0.27), Sonic (SONC, $8.53, down $0.10), Tiffany & Company (TIF, $20.23, down $0.54) and Walgreen (WAG, $24.29, up $0.24).

Tuesday: Carnival Corporation & Carnival (CCL, $21.30, down $1.09), Commercial Metals (CMC, $10.62, down $0.94), Deutsche Bank (DB, $37.51, down $1.20), McCormick & Company (MKC, $32.48, up $0.23), Robbins & Myers (RBN, $15.72, down $0.70) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM, $10.55, up $0.15).

Wednesday: CKE Restaurants (CKR, $8.63, up $0.12), Gammon Gold (GRS, $7.88, up $0.14), Paychex (PAYX, $23.03, down $0.12) and Red Hat (RHT, $14.89, down $0.76).

Thursday: Accenture (ACN, $30.20, down $0.33), Best Buy (BBY, $32.30, down $1.28) and ConAgra Foods (CAG, $15.07, up $0.49).

Friday: KB Home (KBH, $11.25, down $0.53).

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5. Current Trades

Amgen (AMGN, $48.62, down $0.62)

April 55 calls (YAADK, $0.45, down $0.05)
Entry Price: 90 cents (2/27/09)
Exit Target: $1.50 (Open)
Return: -50%

March 47.50 puts (EXPIRED)
Entry Price: $1.25 (2/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.50 (3/6/09)
Return: 100%

The April calls got off to a great start for the week as the stock hit a high of $52 on Tuesday. The options were slightly profitable but Amgen fell with the rest of the market. We bought the March 47.50 puts as insurance and got a quick double while maintaining our long position. We could continue to ride the trade but it will start to eat away at the profits we made on the March puts if Amgen falls back to $45. Set stops at 30 cents.

Bank of America (BAC, $6.19, down $0.74)

The May 6 calls (BYOEF, $1.70, down $0.50)
Entry Price: 75 cents (3/11/09)
Exit Price: $2.75 (3/18/09)
Return: 267%

July 10 calls (JLWGB, $0.60, down $0.25)
Entry Price: 30 cents (3/11/09)
Exit Price: 95 cents (3/18/09)
Return: 217%

I talked about the financial stocks getting ahead of themselves and on Wednesday I was pounding the table to keep one foot out the door. These call options got another huge pop on Thursday’s open but deflated quickly afterwards. They are still higher than where they were originally profiled and some of you may still be in the trades. I will keep following them as I assume half positions were left open but set stops at your entry level prices or right above them to protect these monster profits.

IBM (IBM, $92.51, down $0.15)

April 95 calls (IBMDS, $2.90, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.20 (3/6/09)
Exit Price: $3.00 (3/16/09)
Return: 150%

IBM was all over the map last week and I mentioned rolling profits from the 95 call options over into the April 100 calls (IBMDT,$1.25, up $0.10). We were faked-out of the trade but IBM hit a high of $95 on Friday and these call options traded as high as $1.70. They were profiled at $1.00-$1.10 but the deal IBM announced to buy Sun Microsystems (JAVA, $8.10, down $0.53) was something I certainly didn’t expect. Either way, I was just glad to put us in position to make some good money with the trades.

Potash (POT, $76.67, down $2.55)

April 100 calls (PYPDT, $0.85, down $0.05)
Entry Price: $1.70 (3/4/09)
Exit Price: $1.25 (3/17/09)
Return: -25%

Potash shares hit a high of over $80 on Thursday and Friday and this position was slightly positive before the stock took a dive in the last few hours of trading. However, we were out on Tuesday when our stop of $1.25 was hit. I had said that the risk for this trade was the news that several potash producers in Russia had dropped potash prices 25% and that caught up to us. The rebound was nice to see but the trade was busted once this news had come out.

As you can see, we are minimizing losses and maximizing gains. The market is still struggling with direction which is why we have tight stops on some of our positions.

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6. Monday Morning Playbook

I’m guessing a few good stories this week could be the earnings report due out from Deutsche Bank on Tuesday and Best Buy on Thursday.

Deutsche will be one of the first major banks to announce earnings and I’m sure it will be used to figure out what the other banks could report. Of course, not all books are alike so there will still be some surprises as well as a few disappointments once their books are opened for the quarter. I’m not sure what to expect from Deutsche but I think we could get a 10% move and possibly 20% in the stock once Pandora’s Box is opened.

I like a strangle option trade for this one and here is what I’m looking at. The stock is right between the 35 and 40 strike prices and a 10% move gets us above or below those two strikes. The April 40 calls (DBDY, $3.00, down $1.30) and the April 35 puts (DBPW, $3.00, up $0.10) would cost about $600 for both which could net a 10% return if the stock moves 8%-10% above or below its current levels.

The April 45 calls (DBDZ, $1.50, down $0.50) and the April 30 puts (DBPV, $1.60, up $0.15) would cost roughly $310 to put on a trade and could be the better play. It’s a little riskier but if the stock moves 20% then it could do really well. I think there’s a good chance of that happening because of how much attention Wall Street will be paying to Deutsche’s earnings but you never know.

I would almost suggest just buying the calls or a 2-to1 ratio but the market appears like it could go either way right now. The last two weeks you could feel the market going higher but that euphoria has weaned as we head into first quarter earnings.

With Best Buy, the stock hit a low of $24 just a couple of weeks ago and is now at $32 and was pushing $34. I’m certain the company is benefiting from the closing of Circuit City Stores (CCTYQ, $0.0085, up $0.001) which became official last Sunday. Yes, that quote means the stock is trading on the pink sheets for under a penny. Best Buy could see as much as a 10% increase in domestic comparable-store sales and the company’s cutting fat and adjusting to the tough times. However, how much were their sales hurt while Circuit City was liquidating? That will be the wildcard.

The April 35 calls (BBYDG, $1.35, down $0.40) were pretty active on Friday as over 5,000 contracts traded hands and might be worth a gamble if they get down to $1.00-$1.25. The company announces earnings before the bell on Thursday. If you are bearish then you could play the downside with the April 30 puts (BBYPF, $1.50, up $0.30) which traded 2,700 contracts.

You could also use these two options together and use it as a strangle trade as well.

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7. Closing Thoughts

The possibility of a “flat” week could be in the cards as were gear up for the start of first quarter earnings which will begin to flow in April. There are a couple of notable companies reporting this week as I mentioned earlier but the market will take a more meaningful look into the ones coming up.

There are a slew of economic reports out this week, Existing Home Sales on Monday; Durable Goods Orders and New Homes Sales on Wednesday.

There is news that broke over the weekend that a new government entity dubbed the Public Investment Corporation is seeking to purchase up to $1 trillion in toxic assets on banks’ books. Our buddy, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner should be speaking about this on Monday. Dude will be busy this week. On Tuesday, he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the government’s rescue of AIG, and on Thursday, the financial market regulations. He has come under attack as of late and he hasn’t been a popular choice thus far so it’s hard to say what impact his words will have on the market. However, you can bet the financial stocks will be moving again this week.

As usual, keep an eye on the trades we have going and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on both gains and losses. There is always a trade and the ones that nobody is watching are the ones we want to get into next. As we see a rotation of sorts going on from one sector to another, there will be leaders if we can get a renewed rally and there will losers if we eventually test the lows again. The beauty with options is that we can play the market both ways with calls and puts.

If the market can test the upper ranges I talked about earlier, then we will have to see if we can get over the 50-day moving averages once we are there. We saw a slight reversal at the end of last week which means we might have to buy put options if there is a reversal. If we get a break above the 50-day moving averages, then we could run a little higher — much higher if earnings come in better-than-expected. Those are the two catalysts that I am watching right now.

Rick Rouse
Rick@Optionsmentoring.com

Weekly Wrap for 3/15/09

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

1. Commentary
2. Intel Jumps
3. Triple Witching Friday
4. Earnings
5. Current Trades
6. Monday Morning Playbook
7. Closing Thoughts

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1. Commentary

We got the bounce we were looking for. After testing its lows and being pushed to its limit, the market caught fire last week as the financial stocks led the way with a 35% gain. I mentioned last week in the Weekly Wrap that we needed some catalysts to take the market higher and even if we didn’t we could still get a “bear market bounce”. We got both.

Some of the things being talked about could be catalysts like the suspension of mark-to-market accounting and the reinstitution of the uptick rule, but it’s important not to get too excited because the market still has a long way to go before any sustained rally will stick.

The springboard that propelled the market to bounce off its lows came on Tuesday when Barney Frank said he believes the SEC will reinstate the uptick rule as early as next month. That, and the fact that a couple of the big banking names said they had earned a profit in the first two months of 2009.

Thursday was another big day for the market, which rallied on better-than-expected retail sales data, and more positive news out of the financial sector. Friday was a choppy day but all three of the major indexes finished the week on a four-day winning streak.

As a result, the Dow rallied 9.0% and added nearly 600 points to finish as 7,223. The Nasdaq jumped nearly 140 points, or 10.5%, to close at 1,431 while the S&P 500 charged 73 points higher, or 10.7%, and ended the week at 756. The closes represent a signifcant step in the market holding its support levels but we will need further proof that what the governement is doing is going to work before the bulls are ready to run.

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2. Intel

Back in January, I talked about Intel (INTC, $14.70, up $0.18) after the company reported earnings and how the shares might be stuck in the $12-$14 range over the next few months. Here is the piece from the 1/18/09 Weekly Wrap (quotes are from January):

“Intel (INTC, $13.74, up $0.45) got through the week in relatively good fashion despite a 90% drop in the company’s 4Q profits. The company reported profits of $234 million, or $0.04 a share as revenue fell 23% to $8.2 billion. Intel issued two revenue warnings for the quarter over the past three months and didn’t provide much guidance for the current quarter except to say it expects sales of $7 billion.

The results met Wall Street’s expectations and analysts believe there could be a turnaround in store by the second half of the year. The stock was at $14.15 heading into the week and traded as low as $12.71. The 52-week low is $12.06 and traders had to be pleased that the stock held this level.

The January 20 2010 calls (WNLAD, $0.68, down $0.01) were trading for 92 cents and the January 15 2010 calls (WNLAC, $1.93, down $0.04) were going for $2.30 and both got cheaper. The premiums were a little juiced as you can see and I still don’t think they are attractive enough to go long. If you are thinking of buying the stock, you could maybe write covered calls on them but I still think there are better opportunities than Intel.

We will keep an eye on the stock and see if things pick up but right now I think shares are stuck in the $12-$14 range.” –

The January 20 2010 calls are now at 60 cents but the January 15 2010 calls are going for $2.10. Intel hit a low of $12.30 on Monday and $12.07 the Friday before that so my prediction held up pretty well. However, the stock has broken through three key resistance levels and a break above $15.50 could help the stock rally even further.

The shares broke through their 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages and appear ready to challenge its 200-day average of $17-$18. Even if the stock doesn’t break this level, if the market can continue to rally, then there may be an opportunity for a quick trade. I’m not really interested in the 2010 calls although they could do well. Instead, the April 15 calls (NQDC, $0.75, up $0.05) look appealing at current levels but only if the market continues its rally.

Another interesting option is the March 15 calls (NQCC, $0.22, unchanged) which option traders are most likely to target this week. The stock is only 30 cents out-of-the-money and if Intel can get to $16 by the end of the week then these calls will be worth $1. That is a tall order but even if the stock only makes it to $15.50, these calls will be worth 50 cents or 100% higher from current levels. Again, I like the April 15′s way more than the March 15′s but keep an eye out on how they do.

**************************************************

3. Triple Witching Friday

This Friday is “Triple Witching” and I wanted to explain what this means and what impact it could have on the market. Triple Witching is when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire on the same date. Triple witching happens four times a year and occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. It is an event dubbed as “Freaky Friday” on Wall Street.

I have talked about the key support levels for the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 and despite the title, triple witching has actually proved to be a bullish time for the market. In fact, 9 of the past 12 triple-witching expiration weeks have been positive.

That means over the past three years, the market has advanced, as the bears close out their short positions in the options and futures markets which in turn helps the market. It can have a huge impact as their actions will help shape the market substantially this week.

No one has really talked about this yet but expect this to be the Monday morning water cooler talk which will pick up steam as we head closer to Friday. With the rally we got last week, chances are we continue higher this week given the history.

**************************************************

4. Earnings

Monday: Connecticut Water Service (CTWS, $19.88, up $0.94) and Landry’s Restaurants (LNY, $4.56, up $0.06).

Tusday: AAR (AIR, $11.64, up $0.46), Adobe Systems (ADBE, $18.68, down $0.75), Consolidated Water ($7.88, up $0.60), ($38.95, up $1.16), FactSet Research Systems ($38.95, up $1.16) and Guess (GES, $15.12, up $0.24).

Wednesday: Cintas (CTAS, $20.95, up $0.35), Darden Restaurants (DRI, $28.60, up $0.48), General Mills (GIS, $52.60, up $0.60), Nike (NKE, $44.67, up $0.08) and Oracle (ORCL, $15.56, down $0.07).

Thursday: Barnes and Noble (BKS, $18.82, up $0.41), Blockbuster (BBI, $0.65, up $0.18), FedEx (FDX, $38.00, down $0.56), Ross Stores (ROST, $33.01, down $0.05) and Winnebago (WGO, $4.95, up $0.40).

Friday: Kirkland’s (KIRK, $2.99, down $0.01).

The earnings calendar is limited this week with just about 100 companies reporting. First-quarter earnings season will not “officially” start until April. However, there a few firms that will actually be reporting 1Q results as companies with fiscal quarters ending in February start to release results.

**************************************************

5. Current Trades

Amgen (AMGN, $51.25, up $0.98)

April 55 calls (YAADK, $1.05, up $0.20)

Entry Price: 90 cents (2/27/09)
Exit Target: $1.50 (Open)
Return: 15%

March 47.50 puts (AMQOW, $2.40, up $0.45)
Entry Price: $1.25 (2/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.50 (3/6/09)
Return: 100%

Amgen added 5% for the week after dropping 4% the week before. We bought the March 47.50 puts as insurance and got a quick double while maintaining our long position. The break above $50 was nice to see and we may have seen the bottom at $45. If the stock can build on its momentum this week, we could hit our target price.

Bank of America (BAC, $5.76, down $0.09)

The May 6 calls (BYOEF, $1.50, down $0.05)

Entry Price: 75 cents (3/11/09)
Exit Target: $1.50 (Open)
Return: 100%

July 10 calls (JLWGB, $0.51, down $0.08)

Entry Price: 30 cents (3/11/09)
Exit Target: 60 cents (Open)
Return: 67%

On Wednesday, in the “Banking on Bank of America” blog I talked about the idea of going long on these call options and they have already performed well. I left these two positions open because they have plenty of time left before expiration but you will notice that both have reached 100% returns. The July calls traded as high as 65 cents on Friday. Of course, the smart money closed half of the trade at 100% profits and let the rest ride.

IBM (IBM, $90.36, down $0.04)

April 95 calls (IBMDS, $2.25, down $0.10)

Entry Price: $1.20 (3/6/09)
Exit Target: $2.40
Return: 90%

IBM bounced back last week after hitting a low of $83 on Monday. The stock closed near its highs on Thursday and Friday which was a bullish sign. The calls did hit a high of $2.40 on Friday but I did not send out an alert. If the market can continue its winning ways then the April 95′s will continue to provide us with exceptional gains.

Potash (POT, $76.76, down $0.90)

April 100 calls (PYPDT, $1.45, down $0.35)

Entry Price: $1.70 (3/4/09)
Exit Price: $2.25
Return: -25%

After a slow start, this trade finally came to life last week as Potash added $10 for the week. The calls traded as high as $1.85 on Friday so we were slightly positive for a minute as the shares were pushing $80. Springtime is here this week which means the farmers are starting to spread fertilizer on their fields. The risk for this trade is the news that several potash producers in Russia have dropped prices 25%, putting pressure on others to do the same. Potash, the company, has responded by slashing production which should help support prices. Because of this, I’ve lowered the exit target to $2.25 and raised the stop to $1.25.

**************************************************

6. Monday Morning Playbook

Here are a few trades I’m watching this week. If I take any action I will mention it in the blog, otherwise, hang tight until you hear the whistle blowing.

General Mills is bouncing off its lows and a lot of analysts were upgrading this stock at the end of 2008. ConocoPhillips got hammered last week and could be a good rebound trade. Morgan Stanley looks strong and IBM could make a run to $95 if the market can rally.

General Mills April 55 call (GISDK, $0.90, up $0.15)

ConocoPhillips April 40 call (COPDH, $1.00, down $0.35)

Morgan Stanley April 30 call (MSDF, $1.40, up $0.50)

IBM April 100 call (IBMDT, $1.00, unchanged)

**************************************************

7. Closing Thoughts

Oil finished at $46.25/ barrel, down 78 cents on Friday. OPEC decided today not to directly cut oil output in an effort to raise prices, instead it will focus on stopping individual members from producing above their quotas.

Crude oil has risen nearly 20% in three weeks and if the demand continues it could mean increasing industrial production in the future which could push oil past $50/ barrel. I don’t see demand rising at a rapid pace and the decision by OPEC not to cut should stabilize prices in the $40-$50 range. If OPEC would have lowered output limits it would have likely resulted in higher crude prices.

Members also agreed to meet in special session on May 28 to review prices and supply so we shouldn’t have to worry about any surprises. However, if OPEC believes that crude is too cheap when it meets again, it could reduce oil’s output levels. Right now, even OPEC knows the economy is too fragile to cut production.

Futures are up as I go to press. The Dow futures are up 30, Nasdaq futures are up 5, S&P 500 futures are up 6. The futures are up before Bernanke’s “60 minutes” 15-minutes of fame so we will see how we look in the morning.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Market Rebounds, Call Options Up

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

It was a good day for for the market and it was a great day for us. The Dow surged 380 points, or 5.8%, and closed at 6,926. If there were another hour of trading today the Dow probably would have hit 7,000. The Nasdaq soared 90 points, or 7%, and finished at 1,358 while the S&P 500 traded higher by 43 points, or 6.3%, and settled at 719.

Financial stocks were blistering today after reports that the SEC will reinstate the uptick rule as early as next month. That and the fact that Citigroup (C, $1.45, up $0.40) said it was having a good quarter.

Well, I would hope so.

If you are borrowing money from the government at 0% and making loans, I would hope Citigroup would be doing well this quarter. Anyway, the financal rally was huge today and I was looking at them yesterday thinking…you know…these stocks are getting ridiciously cheap. Specifically, I was looking at the JPMorgan (JPM, $19.50, up $3.60) March 20 calls (JSACD, $1.25, up $0.85) when they were at 75 cents and the April 25 calls (JSADE, $1.00, up $0.60) when they were at 80 cents.

I wanted to pull the trigger put we have too many open positions and I didn’t want to overload you. However, the rally was on once Bernanke spoke before the bell about the banks and the trades we are following did really well.

Here is a quick rundown:

Exxon Mobil (XOM, $67.39, up $2.82)

April 70 calls (XOMDN, $2.25, up $0.58)
Entry Price: $1.25 (3/5/09)
Exit Target: $2.00
Return: 80%

Our exit target was “technically” hit but I don’t blame you if the position is still open. I mentioned the rally Exxon made after a similiar trading pattern back in October. A $2.00 stop gets us a 60% return if Exxon fails from here.

IBM (IBM, $87.25, up $3.77)

April 95 calls (IBMDS, $1.40, up $0.45)
Entry Price: $1.20 (3/6/09)
Exit Target: $2.40
Return: 17%

Big Blue came through after lagging the market at the open but ended the day in a strong uptrend.

Potash (POT, $75.01, up $5.70)

April 100 calls (PYPDT, $1.60, up $0.50)
Entry Price: $1.70 (3/4/09)
Exit Price: $3.40
Return: -6%

It looks like we were a couple of days early with this one but the calls recovered nicely today and volume was huge. Potash was the first pick of the three stocks we were targeting for this rally and although we are slightly down from our entry price, these call options should be okay if Potash can continue its huge run.

***Full Disclosure*** I still have an open position in the ConocoPhillips (COP, $38.00, up $1.47) March 40 calls (COPCH, $0.75, up $0.21). I bought 10 contracts yesterday at 58 cents and they traded as high as 87 cents today. Had I sold at the high, I was looking at a $290 profit. But I held on. My target is 75 cents to $1.00 and I didn’t sell because of the strong rally. We will see how it goes…

Other positions:

Genentech (DNA, $91.50, down $1.13)

March 95 calls (DWNCS, $0.55, up $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.50 (1/12/09)
Exit Target: $0.55 (3/10/09)
Return: -73%

I mentioned in the Weekly Wrap that I would close this one out on Monday and after a frustrating two months…it is finally gone.

Apollo Group (APOL, $68.96, up $2.58)

April 55 puts (OAQPK, $2.35, down $0.55)
Entry Price: $2.95 (3/6/09)
Exit Price: $2.50
Return: -15%

We were stopped out of the April puts with a small loss but we made 100% on the March puts. Apollo went along for the ride on the market’s dollar today and we were stopped out at $2.50.

I also profiled Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO, $6.85, up $0.84) Sunday night in the newsletter and the June 10 calls (TUOFB, $0.50, up $0.20) as a possible trade. The calls could have been bought on Monday for 25 cents. The stock traded higher throughout the day in anticipation of its earnings announcement and you could have been out before the closing bell with a 100% return. The company beat expectations but in after-hours trading the stock was down 45 cents.

We are now long on calls so let’s hope the rally continues. Otherwise, set your stops to protect these profits.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

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    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
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    SCOTT H.
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    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
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    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

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    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

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    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

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    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

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