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Friday, March 19th, 2010
9:10am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Thursday despite a number of fantastic earnings reports and an upbeat round of economic data. The bulls took 2-out-of-3 from the bears after the latest jobless report revealed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 last week. It was the third consecutive decline in jobless filings and sets the stage for an improving jobs report in April.
The Labor Department also said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in February, suggesting that inflation remains relatively tame. In other economic news, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% and the Philadelphia Fed Index for March came in at 18.9, which was slightly above the reading of 18 that Wall Street had been expected.
As a result, the Dow rallied 46 points, or 0.4%, and settled at 10,779. The index traded as high as 10,784 and went out near its high which was a good sign as we zone in on our target of 10,800. We know we are within spitting distance, and if we were playing horseshoes this would work but we really would like to see a close above this level today. That would pave the way for Dow 11,000 depending on what happens with healthcare this weekend.
The Nasdaq added a deuce and closed at 2,391 but traded in a tight range as we try to close above the 2,400 level we have mentioned. We touched this level on Wednesday but missed the mark yesterday as the index only made it to a high of 2,394.
The lonesome loser was the S&P 500 which slipped a half-point to finish at 1,165. Our target is 1,175 then a possible run to 1,200.
Folks, we have been flagging these targets since August and we nailed it when the indexes traded near these levels in January. The market then faded but we knew these targets would come into play once the bulls got back on track. However, now that we are here again, you can see where we are running into resistance and it will be important for the bulls to make a statement to get us through this level.
Today is “Triple Witching” so we could see some added volatility with the March options expiring. There will be battles fought at all levels and a lot of key strike prices will come into play as both the bulls and bears try to get the prices they want.
We can give you a great example this morning and all you have to do is watch the action in Palm (PALM, $5.65, up $0.28) today and into the closing bell. The company reported earnings last night and in after-hours trading shares were below $5. Palm issued a revenue forecast for the current quarter that was far below analysts’ expectations.
The company said it lost $18.5 million, or $0.13 a share versus a loss of $95 million, or $0.89 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue more than tripled to $350 million compared to $90 million but Palm is a mess.
Wall Street was expecting the company to report a loss of $0.42 a share on revenue of $316 million.
The problem with Palm is that their inventory is built up at wireless carriers and sales aren’t as brisk as they once were. Even their CEO admitted to “execution missteps” in a conference call and said they are working “aggressively” to boost sales.
Yeah, good luck buddy catching Apple (AAPL, $224.65, up $0.53)
Palm is facing a rapidly closing window to carve out a space in the competitive smartphone market and this report shows how they have dropped the ball.
As far as action, watch the March 5 puts (UPY100320P00005000, $0.17, down $0.03) and the April 5 puts (UPY100417P00005000, $0.44, down $0.05) today. We had the March puts on our Watch list Monday and Tuesday and they were at 10 cents. We should have backed the truck up because we had a feeling this dog was going below $5.
Shares of Palm are at $4.62, down $1.01 in pre-market trading.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up 11 to 10,728; S&P 500 futures are up 3 to 1,163; Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 2 to 1,945. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, options picks, Palm, stock option signals, Triple Witching
Posted in Earnings, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, December 18th, 2009
9:10am (EST)
Futures are pointing towards a higher open this morning following yesterday’s selloff. The Dow ended Thursday with a 132 point drop and settled at 10,308 while the S&P 500 fell 13 and finished at 1,096.
Today is a quadruple witching day which means contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire today. It is what is known as “Quadruple Witching” day on Wall Street and it can be extreme volatility depending on the current market environment.
We mentioned yesterday that we expected the market to power higher today but given the lack of volatility over the past couple of months, we don’t believe we that will be the case today.
We had a number of companies report earnings after the bell last night and Wall Street seems to like what they heard. Research In Motion (RIMM, $63.46, down $1.21) is over $70 in pre-market trading after reporting strong earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. The company reported earnings of $1.10 a share versus estimates of $1.04. Revenue came in at $3.92 billion which was ahead of the $3.78 billion the Street was calling for.
Oracle (ORCL, $22.88, down $0.24) also came in with better-than-expected results while Palm (PALM, $11.72, up $0.11) however, reported a wider loss than expected as their smart-phone sales declined. Palm is back below $11 in pre-market trading.
Elsewhere, Celgene (CELG, $50.62, down $1.16) is up 9% in early trading to $55 after a late-stage study show its drug, Revlimid, significantly slowed the progression of sickness in patients following a type of stem cell treatment.
We have much more to talk about this morning in the Members Area so let’s get to it. As we head to press, the Dow futures are up 22 points.
Tags: call option trading, Celgene, chicken option trades, Covered Calls, momentum stock option trading, option trade picks, option trading online, options blog, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, oracle, Palm, put option trading, Research in Motion, Rick Rouse, stock option trade pick service, straddle option trades, strangle option trades, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Friday, September 18th, 2009
9:00am (EST)
Futures are pointing to a slightly higher open today, as the bulls look to resume this week’s rally after a slight pullback yesterday. Overseas markets were mostly higher this morning and the economic data has been better than expected this week. The bulls are still eyeing Dow 10,000 and at this point is almost seems to be a given.
Ahead of the bell, Dow futures are up 30, S&P 500 futures are up 3, while Nasdaq futures are up 6.
Palm (PALM, $14.44) should be pretty active today after reporting quarterly results that topped Wall Street’s estimates. After the close yesterday, shares fell 7% as nervous investors mulled the earnings report and the 16 million share offering the company announced as well. However, the stock rebounded once investors sifted through the numbers and at one point the stock was up 7%.
Palm beat their number by 14 cents and guided higher for fiscal year 2010 but I see nothing to get excited about. Palm shipped a little over 800,000 smartphones during the quarter which exceeded what many analysts had expected but most whisper numbers were hoping for a million units.
The recent rally has left many on Wall Street confused because almost everyone has been calling for a pullback. Well, I don’t work on the Street but this is what I’ve learned.
Every market is different and the old saying the market hurts the most people when most people are in the same boat. A lot of short-sellers have had their lunches handed to them because they have been calling for a September pullback. But you have to trade the tape, folks.
As much as the talking heads were saying September was going to be a bad month…I have profiled 8 trades so far in September, all of them have been on the winning side and only one has been a put option trade. There are times when the market will be looking for direction and that is often the time we may miss a few trades. But if you can get a feel for market direction it’s pretty simple.
You buy call options in a bull market and put options in a bear market. Many of you were not with us last year but I profiled a ton of put option trades during last year’s market crash. My point is, until something changes, the trend is our friend.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current trade updates. Apple (AAPL, $184.55) and Dendreon (DNDN, $28.90) were hot yesterday and have returned some monster gains for us…
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Apple, Dendreon, momentum options, options blog, options trading picks, Palm
Posted in Apple, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
Thursday, September 17th, 2009
12:50pm (EST)
The market is struggling today as it has darted in and out of positive territory. Jobless claims dipped to 545,000 last week from an upwardly revised 557,000 the previous week which helped stocks recover from the open but it appears the bears are selling the news and trying to push the market back into negative territory. Currently, the Dow is down 9 points to 9,782.
Despite the choppiness, we have quite a few trades that are doing really well today.
Dendreon (DNDN, $28.75, up $1.94) has broken out to 52-week highs and the Dendreon call options have now doubled. Subscribers who took the OPTION trade on August 31st are now up 140%! I don’t watch much TV because they can influence your habits but somebody emailed me this morning and said Cramer said “Don’t Buy” this stock.
The last time that dude said “Don’t Buy, Don’t Buy, Don’t Buy” Dendreon was back in April when the stock was under $5. We were in an option trade that went on to return our subscribers 2,500%. I doubt the current trade returns as much but it is one of the reasons I don’t follow the talking heads.
Cramer has no clue on this company and he has been wrong since $5.
Apple (AAPL, $185.42, up $3.55) continues to roll and has hit a high of $186.79. If you got into the call options that I recommended yesterday, sell half today.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $71.53, down $0.61) is backing off that $72-$73 resistance area I have been talking about. The stock traded to a high of $72.95 and you should have closed half of the position yesterday when the call options hit our exit target. I still think Freeport is going to report a blowout quarter.
International Business Machines (IBM, $121.87, up $0.05) opened lower and we got some great entry prices for the option trade I profiled this morning. In fact, we couldn’t have played it any better. The call options traded as low as 55 cents shortly after the opening bell and are currently at 75 cents.
Palm (PALM, $14.25, down $0.41) reports after the bell. This is not a trade but I want to show you how people are speculating on the earnings report. The September options expire on Friday and here is the battle taking place.
The Palm September 14 puts (UPYUN, $0.78, up $0.23) have traded 16,000 contracts while the September 15 calls (UPYIC, $0.50, down $0.10) have also traded 16,000 contracts. This could be a good trade if Palm moves 15%-20% on Friday because one side would offset the other. However, I am staying away from this one, and besides, we are already in Apple and have made some great returns. Apple should continue to prosper either way…
I’ll be back in the morning with the trade updates.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Apple, Dendreon, Freeport-McMoRan, IBM, option picks, options trading strategies, Palm
Posted in Apple, Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Option Trades | Comments Off
Thursday, June 4th, 2009
12:30pm (EST)
It seems the bulls are back in town today as the market has held positive territory for most of the day. The Nasdaq has been the clear leader as Tech stocks are trading mostly higher. Apple (AAPL, $143.25, up $2.30) continues to surge and I wrote about the June 140 calls (APVFH, $6.80, up $1.60) late last night. The calls closed at $5.20 yesterday and opened at $4.75 this morning. They even traded to a low of $4.40.
Folks, I had mentioned how Apple was making a push to $150 and the stock got another upgrade and a new price target of $180 this morning by some analyst. There have been SEVERAL upgrades on Apple in the past few weeks and it’s not surprising Wall Street is jumping on the bus before the debut of the new iPhone.
The momentum has been strong and if you would have bought these calls at the open, you would already be up 50% in three hours. Had you invested just $475 you would now have $680 and enough to pay for a one-month membership to the new trading service.
I’m trying to point out the value of what this service is bringing to the table. I am going to put you in a lot of good trades that can make you some great returns in a matter of hours, days and weeks.
I will only being covering option trades once we launch the new trading service for subscribers and I really think you are going to enjoy it. If you got into these calls this morning, I would take profits on 50% right now or close at least half of the position. If they continue higher, fine, but DO NOT hold these calls over the weekend.
Hitting singles like this can lead to homeruns down the road because you will have more capital to “play” with. But if you are “building” a trading account, you’ve just made 50% so don’t give back your profits. Please email me before I “close” the list for subscribers. Once we launch we may have to cap the number of subscribers. For those of you who have emailed me, I got you. I just haven’t been able to respond to all of the emails.
Note: Palm (PALM, $13.24, up $0.75) has been on fire all week. The stock was at $10 last Wednesday. The debut of its new phone, the Pre, will happen on Friday so be careful of buy the rumor, sell the news.
Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com
Tags: Apple, Palm
Posted in Apple, Option Trades | No Comments »
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Palm (PALM) Drops The Ball
Friday, March 19th, 2010
9:10am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Thursday despite a number of fantastic earnings reports and an upbeat round of economic data. The bulls took 2-out-of-3 from the bears after the latest jobless report revealed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 last week. It was the third consecutive decline in jobless filings and sets the stage for an improving jobs report in April.
The Labor Department also said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in February, suggesting that inflation remains relatively tame. In other economic news, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% and the Philadelphia Fed Index for March came in at 18.9, which was slightly above the reading of 18 that Wall Street had been expected.
As a result, the Dow rallied 46 points, or 0.4%, and settled at 10,779. The index traded as high as 10,784 and went out near its high which was a good sign as we zone in on our target of 10,800. We know we are within spitting distance, and if we were playing horseshoes this would work but we really would like to see a close above this level today. That would pave the way for Dow 11,000 depending on what happens with healthcare this weekend.
The Nasdaq added a deuce and closed at 2,391 but traded in a tight range as we try to close above the 2,400 level we have mentioned. We touched this level on Wednesday but missed the mark yesterday as the index only made it to a high of 2,394.
The lonesome loser was the S&P 500 which slipped a half-point to finish at 1,165. Our target is 1,175 then a possible run to 1,200.
Folks, we have been flagging these targets since August and we nailed it when the indexes traded near these levels in January. The market then faded but we knew these targets would come into play once the bulls got back on track. However, now that we are here again, you can see where we are running into resistance and it will be important for the bulls to make a statement to get us through this level.
Today is “Triple Witching” so we could see some added volatility with the March options expiring. There will be battles fought at all levels and a lot of key strike prices will come into play as both the bulls and bears try to get the prices they want.
We can give you a great example this morning and all you have to do is watch the action in Palm (PALM, $5.65, up $0.28) today and into the closing bell. The company reported earnings last night and in after-hours trading shares were below $5. Palm issued a revenue forecast for the current quarter that was far below analysts’ expectations.
The company said it lost $18.5 million, or $0.13 a share versus a loss of $95 million, or $0.89 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue more than tripled to $350 million compared to $90 million but Palm is a mess.
Wall Street was expecting the company to report a loss of $0.42 a share on revenue of $316 million.
The problem with Palm is that their inventory is built up at wireless carriers and sales aren’t as brisk as they once were. Even their CEO admitted to “execution missteps” in a conference call and said they are working “aggressively” to boost sales.
Yeah, good luck buddy catching Apple (AAPL, $224.65, up $0.53)
Palm is facing a rapidly closing window to carve out a space in the competitive smartphone market and this report shows how they have dropped the ball.
As far as action, watch the March 5 puts (UPY100320P00005000, $0.17, down $0.03) and the April 5 puts (UPY100417P00005000, $0.44, down $0.05) today. We had the March puts on our Watch list Monday and Tuesday and they were at 10 cents. We should have backed the truck up because we had a feeling this dog was going below $5.
Shares of Palm are at $4.62, down $1.01 in pre-market trading.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up 11 to 10,728; S&P 500 futures are up 3 to 1,163; Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 2 to 1,945. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, options picks, Palm, stock option signals, Triple Witching
Posted in Earnings, Market Commentary | Comments Off