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Santa Claus Rally Ends With Gains

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The market spent much of Wednesday’s session trying to get back to even after starting the day lower.  Following Tuesday’s pop higher, we expected a flat day or pullback as the bulls seemed reluctant to go all-in with today’s unemployment numbers due out which we will go over in a minute.

As far as the Santa Claus rally that the talking heads have forgotten about, it came and went unnoticed which is fine by us.  We mentioned over the holidays that Wall Street and some of the pros like to take the last 10 days off of the year and that the “Santa” rally officially begins the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the New Year. 

Although last week was slightly negative and yesterday was a wash, the gains on Tuesday were good enough to say this phenomenon came true again this year.  The Dow gained 1.6%, or 200 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced 1.9%, or 23 and nearly 50 points, respectively.

As far as Wednesday’s action, the Dow gained 21 points to finish the session at 12,418.  The blue-chips traded to a high of 12,430 while the low was 12,337 which was prior resistance and is now short-term support.  We are still expecting a run to 12,575-12,600 with a shot at 12,800 if the bulls can hold current levels and get some more good news. 

The S&P added a quarter-point to settle at 1,277.  The index tested a low of 1,268 and held support while the high for the day was 1,278.  We are still expecting a run up to 1,300-1,325 with short-term support holding at 1,250.

The Nasdaq fell a third of a point to end at 2,648.  Tech briefly traded in the green and above 2,650 to a peak of 2,653 but spent much of the session in the red after testing a low of 2,627 at the open.  We were looking for 2,625 to hold with backup at 2,600.  Some of the bigger Tech names could get the Nasdaq past 2,675-2,700 if earnings come in better-than-expected but this could be wishful thinking if we continue to stall at 2,650.

The jobs numbers were good/ bad and we will cover the details this afternoon.  We also have a chart we want to show you on a stock we are sure many of you are pretty familiar with.

As far as futures, they are pointing towards a slightly lower open.  Dow futures are down 33 points to 12,323.  The S&P futures are lower by 5 points to 1,268 while the Nasdaq futures are showing a decline of 4 points to 2,324.

We have a lot to cover this morning so let’s get on it.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

Bulls Break Resistance

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

1:35pm (EST)

We mentioned last night although Christmas is over, the Santa Claus rally officially had two more trading days…

The market is getting a nice pop today following good news from overseas as strong manufacturing numbers from Australia, China, and India put Wall Street in a good mood before the opening bell.  Germany also saw a lower unemployment rate this morning while here at home, the ISM Index and Construction Spending numbers came in better-than-expected.

China’s PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) numbers were released over the weekend and showed expansion in December after posting a reading of 50.3, up from 49 in November.  Non-manufacturing industries for China were also up and came in at 56 versus a print of 49.7 in November.  Both figures caught most economists off guard as a reading over 50 shows expansion.  In India, PMI rose the most in 6 months.

Of course, the next hurdle, will be the FOMC Minutes which will be released at 2pm (EST) sharp.  There is a chance for a “QE3” announcement but the Fed has been steady in its comments and will likely sit on the sideline with Europe simmering down somewhat.

The Dow is up 186 points to 12,404 while the S&P is higher by 19 to 1,276.  The Nasdaq is gaining 39 points and is at 2,643.  The surge higher has meant good news for our open positions so let’s go see where we are at.  We also have 2 NEW TRADES we are releasing today.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates. 

Bears Looking to Crack Bullish Trend

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bulls were facing an uphill battle on Friday as they tried to end the week and 2011 on a positive note.  The major indexes were slightly lower heading into the last trading day of the year and futures were flat heading into the opening bell.  Following a strong rally and rebound on Thursday, this wasn’t a good sign for a run past resistance. 

History was also against the bulls as the Nasdaq had closed lower 9 of the last 10 years.  Make it 10-for-11.  Before the slide, Tech was up 29 years in-a-row from 1971 thru 1999.  The S&P 500 had been down 7-out-of-8 on the last trading day for the year and that streak was extended to 8-for-9.

We were hoping for a “flat” day but the drift lower persisted into the close despite light volume.  As you will see, the longer-term charts are still bullish for 2012 even if there is a significant pullback near-term.  While we are still hopeful this is not the case, the market will face a number of headwinds this week and next with the start of 4Q earnings season.

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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more and check our chart work for the Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq please click here.  We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are one of the few option newsletters which posted a powerful 2011 return.  We offer powerful call and put option trades aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter.  Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis.  Sign-up now and receive access instantly!

 

MomentumOptionsTrading.com Weekly Wrap for 1/2/12

Monday, January 2nd, 2012

11:00pm (EST)

1.  Market Summary 

2.  Earnings 

3.  Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update 

4.  Week Ahead

(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section)

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 

If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more and check our chart work for the Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq please click here.  We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet.  We offer powerful call and put option trades aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter.  Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and finished 2011 with a 16-0 track record.  We have up to 6 double-digit return trades which could be closed this month if shares are “called-away”.  Sign-up now and receive access instantly!

 

Nasdaq Needs Help

Friday, December 30th, 2011

9:05am (EST)

The shortened Wall Street week has been full of surprises but the week and the year comes down to today on if the indexes will finish with a loss or gain on both fronts.  Following a flat Tuesday, the bears took a 1% bite out of the major indexes on Wednesday with the bulls getting much of the losses back on yesterday’s rally.

The Dow advanced 136 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 12,287.  The index ran green from start to finish and reached a peak of 12,293 which was once again just short of resistance.  The blue-chips are still down 7 points for the week but should easily finish the year with a solid gain as the index is up a little over 700 points.

The S&P 500 jumped a lucky 13 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 1,263.  The index went out near its high but failed to clear resistance after holding support on Wednesday and Thursday’s open.  The S&P is down 2 points for the week but is now up 6 points for the year and today’s action will likely decide who gets the win between the bulls and bears.

The Nasdaq added 24 points, or 0.9%, to close at 2,613.  The index was able to recapture the 2,600 level and went out a point off its high.  We have been talking about the 2,650 level for the last few weeks and Tuesday’s high was 2,633.  The bulls will need to clear 2,618 and 2,653 today to get Tech into positive territory for the week and year. 

We have made it no secret Tech has us worried going into 4Q earnings (which start in January) and the Nasdaq can look so ugly at times.  However, support seems to hold just as the index appears ready to fall off a cliff.  To prove our point, look at Amazon.com (AMZN, $173.86, down $0.03) which ended the day in the red after touching a low of $167 on a downgrade, yet, the Nasdaq was up nearly 1%. 

The bears may have wasted a bullet on that call because we think Wall Street is underestimating Amazon’s sales.  Sure the Kindle Fire is losing money but we doubt analysts have any clue just how much revenue this company could earn for the current quarter.  Earnings are late-January for Amazon. 

We could have a busy day with the addition of a trade or two so look for alerts by 11am if we do decide to take action.  We usually don’t open new positions ahead of a 3-day weekend but if our upside or downside targets trigger, we may take small positions. 

Futures are slightly lower as we head to press and look like this:  Dow (-4); S&P 500 (–1); Nasdaq (-2).

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
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    SCOTT H.
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    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
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    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

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    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

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    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

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    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

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    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

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    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

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    ED
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    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

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