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Thursday, November 4th, 2010
12:45pm (EST)
Futures were pointing towards a strong open and we knew when we were typing this morning’s update the bulls would be “good to go”. We have been waiting for months to break out of a trading range from hell and we said once we did we should see a strong breakout. Bingo. We are getting it today and we said investors would be chasing this rally as the momentum is strong.
It’s hard to explain why the market is going up with so much uncertainty and risks being taken but trends are trends are the current one has been bullish. How it all ends remains to be seen but the Fed has basically thrown the kitchen sink at Wall Street begging for higher prices.
You see, a higher stock market means people are going to start seeing their investments go up, their 401k’s, and maybe start to spend more. With the Fed committing $600 billion, or $75 billion a month, to buy Treasuries, they are betting on Wall Street without you knowing it.
That is why you have us.
The Dow has powered through its 52-week high of 11,258 and is up a whopping 180 points, or 1.1%, to 11,356. Our near-term target is Dow 11,500-11,600.
Roll out the red carpet, the S&P broke through the 1,200 level and is up 14 points to 1,214. The index has run into the last remaining layer of “resistance” and needs to take out 1,220 for us to feel “safe”.
The Nasdaq is powering higher by 32 points to 2,545 and looks poised to test our next target of 2,600.
We have a lot to cover in our Members Area as a number of our trades are showing strong gains. We have reviewed our stop targets to protect profits but we will continue to ride the bulls’ back higher until the trend changes. We will be back in the morning with a full update and more specific company coverage but we have some important updates our subscribers need to check.
Tags: binary options, bulls markets, buying options, call option, Option Trades, options newsletter, options picks, put option, selling options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, March 19th, 2010
9:10am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Thursday despite a number of fantastic earnings reports and an upbeat round of economic data. The bulls took 2-out-of-3 from the bears after the latest jobless report revealed that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 last week. It was the third consecutive decline in jobless filings and sets the stage for an improving jobs report in April.
The Labor Department also said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in February, suggesting that inflation remains relatively tame. In other economic news, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% and the Philadelphia Fed Index for March came in at 18.9, which was slightly above the reading of 18 that Wall Street had been expected.
As a result, the Dow rallied 46 points, or 0.4%, and settled at 10,779. The index traded as high as 10,784 and went out near its high which was a good sign as we zone in on our target of 10,800. We know we are within spitting distance, and if we were playing horseshoes this would work but we really would like to see a close above this level today. That would pave the way for Dow 11,000 depending on what happens with healthcare this weekend.
The Nasdaq added a deuce and closed at 2,391 but traded in a tight range as we try to close above the 2,400 level we have mentioned. We touched this level on Wednesday but missed the mark yesterday as the index only made it to a high of 2,394.
The lonesome loser was the S&P 500 which slipped a half-point to finish at 1,165. Our target is 1,175 then a possible run to 1,200.
Folks, we have been flagging these targets since August and we nailed it when the indexes traded near these levels in January. The market then faded but we knew these targets would come into play once the bulls got back on track. However, now that we are here again, you can see where we are running into resistance and it will be important for the bulls to make a statement to get us through this level.
Today is “Triple Witching” so we could see some added volatility with the March options expiring. There will be battles fought at all levels and a lot of key strike prices will come into play as both the bulls and bears try to get the prices they want.
We can give you a great example this morning and all you have to do is watch the action in Palm (PALM, $5.65, up $0.28) today and into the closing bell. The company reported earnings last night and in after-hours trading shares were below $5. Palm issued a revenue forecast for the current quarter that was far below analysts’ expectations.
The company said it lost $18.5 million, or $0.13 a share versus a loss of $95 million, or $0.89 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue more than tripled to $350 million compared to $90 million but Palm is a mess.
Wall Street was expecting the company to report a loss of $0.42 a share on revenue of $316 million.
The problem with Palm is that their inventory is built up at wireless carriers and sales aren’t as brisk as they once were. Even their CEO admitted to “execution missteps” in a conference call and said they are working “aggressively” to boost sales.
Yeah, good luck buddy catching Apple (AAPL, $224.65, up $0.53)
Palm is facing a rapidly closing window to carve out a space in the competitive smartphone market and this report shows how they have dropped the ball.
As far as action, watch the March 5 puts (UPY100320P00005000, $0.17, down $0.03) and the April 5 puts (UPY100417P00005000, $0.44, down $0.05) today. We had the March puts on our Watch list Monday and Tuesday and they were at 10 cents. We should have backed the truck up because we had a feeling this dog was going below $5.
Shares of Palm are at $4.62, down $1.01 in pre-market trading.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up 11 to 10,728; S&P 500 futures are up 3 to 1,163; Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 2 to 1,945. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, options picks, Palm, stock option signals, Triple Witching
Posted in Earnings, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, October 7th, 2009
1:00pm (EST)
The bulls are taking a breather following the 2-day rally that has seen the Dow run-up 250 points. The index hit a high of 9,793 on Tuesday but is currently down 41 points to 9,689. Still, the momentum the bulls are showing points towards Dow 10,000 in the coming weeks.
I’ve mentioned most of the big earnings from this morning and the main one after the bell will be Alcoa (AA, $13.97, up $0.08). The stock has had a pretty good run this week heading into earnings and the option activity is pointing towards more upside.
The October 14 calls (AAJN, $0.63, up $0.02) have traded 14,000 contracts today while the October 14 puts (AAVN, $0.65, down $0.06) have traded only 4,000 contracts.
Wall Street is expecting the company to post a third-quarter loss of 11 cents per share on revenue of $4.5 billion. Last quarter, the company reported its third consecutive quarterly loss, but said some markets may be stabilizing.
In the year-earlier period, Alcoa earned 33 cents per share on revenue of $7.23 billion.
We will leave this trade alone but there is a NEW TRADE today in the Members Area. We were closed out of our Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $32.57, up $1.01) trade yesterday for a 27% gain so we have room to add one.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the NEW TRADE.
Tags: AA, Abercrombie & Fitch, Alcoa, anf, options picks, options trading strategies
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Wednesday, October 7th, 2009
9:00am (EST)
Third-quarter earnings season “officially” kicks off when Alcoa (AA, $13.89) reports after the bell today as it is the first Dow stock to announce. We have some other notable names reporting earnings as well but their fiscal year is just ending and they are reporting 4Q earnings.
For instance we have a number of 4Q earnings that were released before the bell today. Costco (COST, $57.93) reported earnings that topped Wall Street’s estimates. The company earned $374 million, or $0.85 a share, versus $398 million, or $0.90 a share, a year earlier. Wall Street was expecting $0.77 a share.
Family Dollar (FDO, $28.48) said it earned $60.1 million, or $0.43 a share, compared with $53.2 million, or $0.38 a share, in the year-ago period. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $0.41 a share.
Monsanto (MON, $75.63) reported a higher 4Q loss but estimates still top the Street’s.
Futures are up slightly as we head towards the bell. Dow futures are up 8 points, Nasdaq 100 futures are higher by 2 while the S&P 500 futures are flat.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current trade updates.
Tags: AA, Alcoa, COST, Costco, Family Dollar, FDO, momentum options, Momentum stocks, MON, Monsanto, options blog, options mentoring, options picks, options track record
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
Tuesday, October 6th, 2009
1:00pm (EST)
The bulls have pushed the Dow to another triple-digit gain and gold has hit an all-time high of 1,044 today. Stocks are seeing their biggest gains in over two months as Gold and Energy stocks are zooming. Halfway through the trading session, the Dow is up 140 at 9,740. The S&P 500 is higher by 15 to 1,056, while the Nasdaq has gained 37 and is at 2,105.
Gold stocks are up 6%-7% on average. Barrick Gold (ABX, $39.00, up $2.09), Gold Fields (GFI, $14.90, up $0.93), Goldcorp (GG, $41.72, up $2.40) and Newmont Mining (NEM, $46.22, up $3.02) are the major players doing well today.
Oil is up $1.37 to $71.78 and continues to rebound from last week’s sell-off. One of the stocks we were watching was Exxon Mobil (XOM, $68.81, up $1.23) and I said I liked it at $66 on Friday. The stock traded to a low of $66.11 on Monday and that would have been the perfect time to pull the trigger on the November 70 calls (XOMKN, $1.50, up $0.35) which are up nearly 40% today.
The trade may already be busted which is why I listed the options outside of the Members Area. In other words, this is not a trade recommendation, just an observation on how I let that one slip through the cracks while traveling.
We are still watching Research In Motion (RIMM, $66.12, up $0.70) but I don’t trust it…
Tags: ABX, Barrick Gold, GFI, GG, Goldcorp, momentum option, Momentum stocks, NEM, Newmont Mining, options picks, options track record, options trading, RIMM, XOM
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
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All Systems Go
Thursday, November 4th, 2010
12:45pm (EST)
Futures were pointing towards a strong open and we knew when we were typing this morning’s update the bulls would be “good to go”. We have been waiting for months to break out of a trading range from hell and we said once we did we should see a strong breakout. Bingo. We are getting it today and we said investors would be chasing this rally as the momentum is strong.
It’s hard to explain why the market is going up with so much uncertainty and risks being taken but trends are trends are the current one has been bullish. How it all ends remains to be seen but the Fed has basically thrown the kitchen sink at Wall Street begging for higher prices.
You see, a higher stock market means people are going to start seeing their investments go up, their 401k’s, and maybe start to spend more. With the Fed committing $600 billion, or $75 billion a month, to buy Treasuries, they are betting on Wall Street without you knowing it.
That is why you have us.
The Dow has powered through its 52-week high of 11,258 and is up a whopping 180 points, or 1.1%, to 11,356. Our near-term target is Dow 11,500-11,600.
Roll out the red carpet, the S&P broke through the 1,200 level and is up 14 points to 1,214. The index has run into the last remaining layer of “resistance” and needs to take out 1,220 for us to feel “safe”.
The Nasdaq is powering higher by 32 points to 2,545 and looks poised to test our next target of 2,600.
We have a lot to cover in our Members Area as a number of our trades are showing strong gains. We have reviewed our stop targets to protect profits but we will continue to ride the bulls’ back higher until the trend changes. We will be back in the morning with a full update and more specific company coverage but we have some important updates our subscribers need to check.
Tags: binary options, bulls markets, buying options, call option, Option Trades, options newsletter, options picks, put option, selling options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off