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Futures Pointing Towards Slightly Lower Open

Tuesday, November 17th, 2009

9:05am (EST)

The market got off to a great start on Monday after a better-than-expected rebound in retail sales helped push stocks to yearly highs.  Retail sales rose 1.4% in October, nearly double the 0.8% increase forecast by Wall Street.  It was a huge rebound from the 2.3% decline in September.  Even Ben Bernanke couldn’t mess yesterday’s rally up.

The Dow jumped 136 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 10,406.  The S&P closed above the 1,100 level for the first time in more than a year by adding 18 points to finish at 1,109.  The Nasdaq finished just below 2,200 and tacked on a 30 point gain to settle at 2,198.

We hate to sound like a broken record but here is what we said Sunday night in the Weekly Wrap:

”Our near-term targets for the Dow remain 10,300-10,400 to the upside and 9,650 is short-term support.”  Well, the Dow reached a high of 10,357 and hit a high of 10,332 on Friday.  If the Dow can break 10,365 then we could looking at, get this…10,850.  If that were to occur then 10,300 would become solid support.  Lower support still remains at 9,650.

The S&P 500 gained 24 points, or 2.3%, for the week and closed at 1,093.  We mentioned the index was having trouble with the 1,100 level but did break the magical number twice last week.  It was a little concerning though that we could not CLOSE above 1,100 but we should this week if the bulls continue to push.  That could pave the way for a run to 1,200.  The bottom of the range is 1,000 and even down to 970.

The Nasdaq made the biggest gain as it surged double nickels (55 points, or 2.6%) to finish the week at 2,167.  We are looking for a close above 2,175 which could take us to 2,275.  Support is at 2,000-2,025.”

As you can see, we closed above all of these resistance levels on Monday and we talk a little more about what this means in the Members Area.

Although futures are pointing towards a lower open this morning, we think the bulls are ready to run this week.  The close above 1,100 on the S&P was huge and it could lead to some continued short covering by the bears.

We are trying to take advantage of this morning’s weakness.  We have profiled TWO trades this morning in the Members Area that should do well if the market continues its winning ways.  Current subscribers, check for the updates…

S&P 500 Breaks 1,100

Monday, November 16th, 2009

12:45pm (EST)

The bulls are pushing the market higher today although Bernanke just took the podium and said “significant economic challenges remain” but that the Fed’s policy will help ensure a stronger dollar.

The Dow is currently up 118 points, to 10,387, and we have broken through key resistance levels we mentioned in last night’s Weekly Wrap.  The Dow is off its high of 10,413 but more importantly we have cracked 10,365…

The S&P 500 has added 15 points and currently stands at 1,108 while the Nasdaq is up 27 ticks to 2,195.  We are cheering for the S&P 500 to hold 1,100 convincingly today.

We have updated all of our trades once again so we have to cut today’s market commentary a little short.  Netflix (NFLX, $59.57, up $0.24) has broken $60 this morning and we were able to get in our Microsoft (MSFT, $29.73, up $0.10) trade at our limit price this morning.  Current subscribers check the Members Area for the HOT updates…



Lowe’s Meets Expectations, Shares Up

Monday, November 16th, 2009

9:10am (EST)

Lots of breaking news this morning…

Retail sales grew 1.4% in October, after a 1.5% gain in September but came in short of the Street’s estimate.  Excluding autos, sales increased 0.2% which was below the 0.4% gain from last month.

The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State manufacturing survey also came in lower than expected.  After hitting a five year high in the previous month, manufacturing activity fell to 23.5 in November from 34.6 in October.

Lowe’s Companies (LOW, $21.85) reported earnings this morning and said profits for the quarter were $344 million, or $0.23 a share, down from $488 million, or $0.33 a share, in the same quarter last year.

Results included one-time costs and if you exclude those items, Lowe’s earned $0.24 a share, matching Wall Street’s expectations.

Revenue came in at $11.4 billion, down from $11.7 billion, but beat estimates of $11.3 billion.  Lowe’s said it expects sales to increase 3%-4% a year on average over the next five years, and average earnings will increase 15% annually.  This stock is slightly higher in pre-market trading.

Futures are pointing towards a strong open this morning and we are looking to take advantage of the next leg up.  Current Members can check for a NEW TRADE this morning, one we are trying to get at the open, in the Members Area.

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
    of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
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    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

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    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

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