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Wednesday, October 20th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
The bulls got their first scare for October after China dropped a bomb on Wall Street yesterday with an interest-rate hike, their first such tightening in 3 years. There were a number of “better-than-expected” earnings reports but there were a few clunkers which also weighed on stocks as the major indexes experienced their worst setback in 2 months.
Goldman Sachs (GS, $156.72, up $3.02) tried to rally the Financial sector but other bank stocks dragged down the group, especially those with exposure to the foreclosure crisis that continues to make daily headlines. Bank of America (BAC, $11.80, down $0.54) was all over the map yesterday before dropping 4% after reporting earnings.
Although the company said its mortgage loan losses were “improving”, they still set aside $5.4 billion to cover bad loans and took a $10.4 billion “special charge” related to the financial reform legislation passed over the summer. Otherwise, BofA would have posted a profit for the quarter that actually beat analysts’ expectations.
We were betting on a rebound on this stock which was recently stuck right in the middle of its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A break above $14 and it looked liked smooth sailing. A break below $13, well, we knew the sharks would be out.
The drop below $13 chased us off on an option trade and we thought shares were cheap in the low teens. We figured by February we would see a recovery to the mid-teens, at least, but the selloff has been way overdone in our book.
JP Morgan (JPM, $37.60, down $0.51), PNC (PNC, $53.04, up $0.03), US Bancorp (USB, $22.81, down $0.35) and Wells Fargo (WFC, $24.55, down $0.32) also have a high percentage of large mortgage loans in foreclosures.
Another key to yesterday’s reversal was the strength in the U.S. dollar which rebounded strongly on Tuesday after the China news. If you haven’t noticed, the market’s recent run has come on the strength of a weak U.S. dollar. If the dollar continues higher the market could see more selling pressure.
Commodities fell as Aluminum, Copper, and Steel all took one for the team. A cooler Chinese economy means weaker demand for many of the commodities consumed around the world. Alcoa (AA, $12.67, down $0.47), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX, $92.72, down $3.58) and U.S. Steel (X, $42.51, down $1.80), fell 3%-4%, apiece.
As a result, the Dow sank 165 points, or 1.5%, to close at 10,978 and below 11K for the first time in 2 weeks. The technical resistance looming overhead in the 11,150-11,200 area is proving to be rough and we mentioned there is support at 10,800-10,850. Yesterday’s low was 10,917.
The S&P 500 dropped 19 points, or 1.6%, to finish at 1,165 but traded down to 1,159. A break below 1,150 spells trouble for the bulls. Our target of 1,200 is proving to be strong overhead resistance so the next few weeks could be crucial as far as longer-term direction.
The Nasdaq fell a whopping 43 points, or 1.8%, and settled at 2,436. The bulls were trying to hold the 2,450 mark but that was breeched following the session long selloff yesterday. A break below 2,400 could lead to a test of 2,350. Resistance at 2,500 will be challenging without a major catalyst to push the bulls through.
We said last week we expected the volatility to pick up and we are seeing that in full force as the 3Q earnings season heats up. The bulls are still banking on another round of quantitative easing (QE2) and the mid-term elections to continue to fuel a rally higher but the bears obviously have other thoughts.
Futures are pointing towards a slightly higher open this morning as the bulls try to get back on track. Dow futures are up by 17 points to 10,960 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 3 points to 1,167. The Nasdaq futures are showing an 8 point gain and are at 2,075.
Tags: Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) earnings, option trading picks Posted in Financial Stocks, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Tuesday, October 19th, 2010
8:50am (EST)
You can’t always get what you want…
The bulls finally got some good news from the Financial sector as Bank stocks helped push the market higher on Monday. We talked about Citigroup’s (C, $4.17, up $0.22) numbers yesterday as the company reported a better-than-expected quarter and also said it is seeing less credit provisions. Strength among this group, which has been battered and bruised over foreclosure issues, helped push the Financial sector to a 2.3% gain for the day.
As far as the major indexes, the Dow added 81 points, or 0.7%, to finish at 11,143. The index trade to a high of 11,159 and right into our 11,150-11,200 zone but could not close inside this area. Although the Dow was able to settle atop the 11,100 level for the first time since early May, we knew these hurdles would be hard to clear as the bulls push towards the April highs.
The S&P 500 banged out a 9 point gain, or 0.7%, and ended at 1,184. We have been watching for the 1,170-1,175 area to hold and the index trade to a low of 1,174 before rebounding on a possible push towards 1,200.
The Nasdaq added 12 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 2,480 after trading in the red for much of yesterday’s session. The index traded to a low of 2,462 which is in our 2,450-2,500 zone and went out on its high for the day. However, all of our resistant targets will have to wait as futures are pointing towards a nasty open this morning.
Apple (AAPL, $318.00, up $3.26) posted better-than-expected results for their latest quarter after the bell on Monday, but got spanked despite strong sales of its iPhone. The problem was with the company’s iPad, which sold extremely well, but fell short of Wall Street’s projections.

Specifically, Apple sold 9 million iPod’s during the quarter, 14 million iPhones, 4.2 million iPads, and 3.9 million Macs. The iPad number was well short of the 4.8 million units that were baked into the cake but Apple simply couldn’t make them fast enough as there was a backlog for some components that make up the device.
Although profits came in at $4.3 billion, or $4.64 a share, it wasn’t enough to offset the high expectations that investors were looking for. Revenue jumped nearly 70% to over $20 billion.
These numbers were higher than the $4.06 a share on revenue of $19 billion analysts had penciled in but gross margins (36.9%) slipped and the company offered a weaker guidance going forward. Apple said it sees current quarter earnings at $4.80 a share, versus $5.04 a share, on sales of $23 billion, versus estimates of $22 billion.
Shares of Apple are down $14.45, or 5%, to $303.55 in early action.
Elsewhere, International Business Machines (IBM, $142.83, up $1.77) posted better-than-expected results after the bell as well. Nothing new here, as the company also raised earnings guidance for the full year.

“Big Blue” reported a profit of $2.82 a share, on revenue of $24.3 billion. The knuckleheads were looking for $2.75 a share on sales of $24.1 billion. Looking forward, IBM raised its 2010 earnings forecast to $11.40 a share from a previous estimate of $11.25 a share. Analysts are currently looking for $11.29 a share.
Shares of IBM are down $4.78 to $138.05 in pre-market trading.
Apple and IBM are heavily weighted on the major indexes so we can expect a lower open as futures are looking ugly.
Dow futures are lower by 38 points to 11,007 while the S&P 500 futures are off by 7 points to 1,171. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 23 points to 2,071. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Apple (AAPL), IBM, option trading picks Posted in Apple, Earnings | Comments Off
Monday, September 20th, 2010
12:00pm (EST)
The market is powering its way higher as the bulls push the upper limits of the current 4-month long trading range. We went over a lot of the technical levels last night in our Weekly Wrap and we will go over them again before we end this update but this week could be the day of reckoning for one side.
The bulls have done a tremendous job of rallying this market in what is historically a weak September but the fact is September is not over, yet. We aren’t sure how this market will play out and all we can do is use the charts, but one thing is for sure, we should get a huge move this week or next as we head into October.

Currently, the Dow is up triple-digits, or 102 points, to 10,710. Our near-term top is 10,800 but if this level is broken the bulls could make a quick charge to Dow 11,000. The S&P is higher by 11 points to 1,137 and we said 1,150 would come into play while the Nasdaq is pushing our 2,350 target as it is up 24 points to 2,340. Wow.

There are a lot of stocks we want to talk about, like Apple (AAPL, $280.50, up $5.13), which has busted out to a new lifetime high, but we have a lot of things we want to cover in the Members Area including TWO new trades. One trade is a strangle option trade while the other is longer-term trade on a stock that we think will be significantly higher in 3 months. Subscribers, check for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, option trading picks Posted in Apple, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009
1:10pm (EST)
Folks, there is more action in our Members Area than a poker table on payday.
Trading is choppy today as the Dow has darted in and out of positive territory. We are currently at 10,437, down 34 points. The S&P 500 is at 1,107, down 2 points, but is holding 1,100.
We thought we had heard it all with the gold price targets but today an analyst came out and said “Gold $5,000”. We were just talking about this in the morning update and needless to say we are blown away.
In any event, it has helped Barrick Gold (ABX, $47.29, up $1.22) set another 52-week high today. Those December 45 calls (ABXLI, $3.10, up $0.90) we mentioned this morning opened at $2.58.
Another stock that is showing unbelievable strength is Amazon.com (AMZN, $141.05, up $2.55). The stock closed last Friday at $131 but we were hesitant to pull the trigger on an option trade because of the massive sell-off we got on Friday but the stock always seems to rally in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
We have a lot to talk about in our Members Area and we wanted to update the trades we sent out to our subscribers at high noon. If you are not yet a subscriber, we do hope you consider a subscription before we get filled.
Tags: Barrick Gold, momentum stock option trading, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades Posted in Gold, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009
12:00pm (EST)
Current subscribers, please check the Members Area or your email for two new trades today. We will be back at 1pm with our regular update. These trades are listed in the Members Area NOW…
Tags: Barrick Gold, momentum stock option trading, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
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Bulls Feeling Good
Monday, September 20th, 2010
12:00pm (EST)
The market is powering its way higher as the bulls push the upper limits of the current 4-month long trading range. We went over a lot of the technical levels last night in our Weekly Wrap and we will go over them again before we end this update but this week could be the day of reckoning for one side.
The bulls have done a tremendous job of rallying this market in what is historically a weak September but the fact is September is not over, yet. We aren’t sure how this market will play out and all we can do is use the charts, but one thing is for sure, we should get a huge move this week or next as we head into October.
Currently, the Dow is up triple-digits, or 102 points, to 10,710. Our near-term top is 10,800 but if this level is broken the bulls could make a quick charge to Dow 11,000. The S&P is higher by 11 points to 1,137 and we said 1,150 would come into play while the Nasdaq is pushing our 2,350 target as it is up 24 points to 2,340. Wow.
There are a lot of stocks we want to talk about, like Apple (AAPL, $280.50, up $5.13), which has busted out to a new lifetime high, but we have a lot of things we want to cover in the Members Area including TWO new trades. One trade is a strangle option trade while the other is longer-term trade on a stock that we think will be significantly higher in 3 months. Subscribers, check for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, option trading picks
Posted in Apple, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off