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Thursday, October 4th, 2012
12:00pm (EST)
The bulls are once again pushing resistance as we head into the second half of trading but as we have seen all week, the trouble has been holding these levels on the close. Some of the talking heads are calling it a Romney Rally and we talked about this last month on how this theme could come up. However, until we break resistance (or another wave of support). The market remains in a trading range.
Before we cover the numbers, we wanted to do another quick update on Apple (AAPL, $671.02, down $0.43) as shares have traded on both sides of the ledger today. The stock has reached a high of $674.25 but has pulled since.
The talking heads must have read our midday update on Tuesday because they confirmed our speculation yesterday that Apple could announce the iPad mini this month. Of course, we have been mentioning for a few weeks now that the new iPad announcement was coming but we were hoping the news would have come next week as we were looking to get into some Apple call options.
We said the announcement could come as soon as October 10 and our plan was to pick up some near-term options next Tuesday, October 9.
We profiled the WEEKLY October 675 calls (AAPL121005C00675000, $3.00, down $0.50) on Tuesday and at the time they were going for $1.90. They doubled in less than 48 hours after kissing a high of $3.90 this morning.
The October 675 (AAPL121020C00675000, $13.60, down $0.25) were super expensive and were going for $9.90 per contract midday on Tuesday. These options hit a high of $14.80 earlier today, representing a 50% gain.
We said to watch the $650 level on Tuesday to see if it would serve as support and if so, it could be a signal to go long. Shares were at $658 midday and did indeed test a low of $650.65 shortly after our update. These means both call options actually got cheaper, providing great entry prices at support.
Although we missed the gravy train on these two trades, we said we wanted to review how we trade because we have so many new subscribers. We have been working hard updating our options trading manual, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, and we thought we would share with you how we look at and find trades before we release the updated version in December.
If you are in this trade, we would lock up profits on the WEEKLY call options RIGHT NOW. We mentioned $675 was prior support and this will be the first level of resistance. While it would be nice to hold the regular October 675 calls for a chance at Apple running to $700, we would take the safe money and also lock-in profits if these were official recommendations.
As far as the market, the Dow is up 63 points to 13,557 while the S&P 500 is higher by 7 points to 1,458. The Nasdaq is basically flat (+0.41) at 3,135.
Nonfarm Payrolls are due out before the bell on Friday so we could have a volatile day. The suit-and-ties are looking for a number of at least 120,000 jobs and anything north of this could lead to a break past resistance. If the print is under this level, or heaven forbid under 100K, the bears will pounce.
We have action to take on a trade that is up 111% so let’s go ring the register! This marks our 19th winning trade out of our last 21 recommendations since mid-August.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Apple, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Sunday, September 30th, 2012
11:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. OraSure Technologies (OSUR) Still Looks Risky
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section. We have a ton of charts to go over so please look at them to get the clues on where this market is headed.)
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more and check our chart work for the indexes and our current trades, please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are doing tremendously well for 2012.
Since mid-August, we have closed 18-out-of-20 winning recommendations. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and is 24-0. Together, we are 132-45 (75% win rate) for both newsletters and we doubt you will find a hotter options trading service.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off
Monday, September 24th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“The market has moved 4% for the month of September and we will need another 2%-3% over the next 2 weeks to reach our fluff targets of Dow 14,000; S&P 1,500; Nasdaq 3,250; and 900 for Russell 2000.
Monday’s have been dominated by the bears over the past 3 months and a win by the bulls would be a good sign to start the week. The Dow will get a new component on Monday as Kraft Foods (KFT, $39.93, down $0.20) is out and Unitedhealth Group (UNH, $54.25, up $0.36) is in. This could help the index as traders prop up the stock.
Kraft will be splitting into two companies. Kraft Foods which will focus growing the grocery business and will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “KFRT” starting next Monday. The parent company will be called Mondelez International and will also trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “MDLZ”.
FedEx (FDX, $90.15, down $0.21) will report earnings on Tuesday and they warned Wall Street a few weeks ago they were going to miss estimates. This could be bullish for the stock as they have lowered expectations already. The Dow Transports have been in rally mode and we told you this was a key index to watch coming into September to confirm the Dow and blue-chips had legs.
Here is how the Transports look after Friday’s close:
The rest of the week is filled with a few high-profile earnings from companies with different fiscal year endings, but official 3Q earnings season won’t start until the second week of October.
Between now and the beginning of October, companies usually warn and with FedEx and Intel (INTC, $23.37, up $0.02) giving Wall Street a heads-up, others will follow. AK Steel Holding (AKS, $5.87, down $0.57) tried to sneak theirs in on Friday after saying they expect higher losses for the quarter. That didn’t work as shares tanked 9%.
Economic news will be dominated by Housing numbers and they should come in better-than-expected although it’s not a given. The big report should be the Philly Fed on Thursday.
This week is option expiration week for the September chains and it can be bullish, especially on Fridays. The Dow has been up on the past seven September Triple Witching Friday’s and 8-out-of-9. Triple Witching (TW) is when all option and index futures expire and it happens 4 times a year – March, June, September and December. The talking heads will throw caution at the event but again, it is usually a bullish day for September TW.
Apple (AAPL, $691.28, up $8.30) certainly helped the bulls by surging to new all-time highs. Shares reached a peak of $696.98 on Friday and here were our thoughts midweek on the stock and before the official launch of the iPhone5.
“Apple (AAPL, $660.39, down $0.20) is expected to announce the iPhone5 today and there are a ton of analysts saying shares have a history of selling off after a product announcement. While this is true, this time could be different as Apple will sell a ton of these phones. There are also rumors of an iPad mini which would also be big news.” (END)
Shares of Apple were up $30 afterwards and $10 for the week. If shares do selloff from here or pullback, you can bet there will be a knucklehead that says, we told you so. Well, if they do, we will have to remind of them of the $40 point pop AFTER the announcement.
Apple won another key legal verdict last week that will allow them to file for an injunction against Google’s Motorola devices. This follows a huge legal victory against Samsung and gives Apple leverage going forward. As far as the iPad mini, we think it could now come in October which could get shares to $750-$800 on continued momentum.
With Europe and the Fed yesterday’s news, the market should continue higher this week and into month end as some mutual and hedge fund managers will surely be chasing. Many of them have sat out the rally following their August vacations and we told you they could be forced to buy as they also discounted The Bernanke whom they thought would disappoint the market. It’s a good thing poker is our second favorite profession besides trading options.” (from 9/16/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bulls got off to a slow start for the week as the market struggled to retain its momentum following the QE3 here at home and around the globe quantitative easing efforts. A slight pause was expected following the strong September gains but the bears didn’t have much luck with trying to crack support and their lack of energy showed.
The pace picked-up by Wednesday as the Dow challenged new highs but a slowdown in China and uninspiring unemployment numbers weighed on Thursday’s action. Our prediction of a bullish option expiration Friday based on history looked good for much of the session but the bears played just enough defense in the final hour of trading to pull even and win the week.
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter. Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we are 130-43 for 2012 which is a 75% win rate for all of our trade recommendations.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, September 21st, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market had another mixed session that ended pretty much the same way as the day before as the blue-chips managed a small gain while Tech and the Financial stocks held back the other indexes.
The Dow gained 19 points, or 0.1%, to settle close at 13,596.93. The blue-chips reached a peak of 13,599.02 and we showed the decimals which emphasizes just how close the bulls were to closing above resistance at 13,600.
The S&P 500 declined less than a point, or 0.1%, to finish at 1,460. The index traded down to 1,449.98 which was a grass blade below 1,450 and another key level we have been mentioning as prior resistance and is now trying to hold as key support. The S&P also made a brief trip into positive territory late in the session but it was less than a fifth of a point. The magic close for the bulls will be 1,475 or better which is a 1% move on a typically bullish September option expiration day.
The Nasdaq slipped 6.66 points, or 0.2%, to end at 3,175. Ironic, huh? We have mentioned support at 3,150 has been solid all week and yesterday’s low came in at 3,156. Although Tech has been lagging, Wall Street is buying the dips for now.
The Russell 2000 traded below our 850 support target and hit 847 before rebounding. The small-caps settled at 851.51, down nearly 5 points, and stayed in the red all day like Tech. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 14.07, up 0.19) barely budged and stayed well below 15 after peaking at 14.67.
The bears are up nearly 1% for the week but we mentioned in our Weekly Wrap September option expiration day has been bullish over the past decade. Futures were up throughout the night and have gotten stronger as we head to press: Dow (+57), S&P 500 (+6); Nasdaq 100 (+15).
We could have another busy day as there a few trades on our Watch List that look ripe for the picking. We have room for up to 5 more New Trades so stay locked and loaded in case we take action. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current trade updates.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Financial Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Thursday, September 20th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls finally got back into the win column following Wednesday’s push but there are a few economic reports out this morning they need to get before they challenge new highs.
The Dow gained 13 points, or 0.1%, to end at 13,578. The blue-chips reached a peak of 13,626 but were unable to hold the 13,600 level into the close which was slightly disappointing. We are looking for a close above this level for confirmation of a possible push to 13,800-14,000. A close below 13,500 would be slightly bearish but the bears have several layers of support to cracj before a trend change takes place.
The S&P 500 advanced 2 points, or 0.1%, to settle at 1,461. The index tested a low of 1,457 shortly after the open but rebounded to kiss a high of 1,465. We are still waiting for a close above 1,475 to confirm a possible run at 1,500 over the near-term. Support at 1,450 has been holding like a champ.
The Nasdaq added 5 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 3,182. Tech lagged the other indexes for much of the first half after falling to a low of 3,170 but was able to rebound. The index tested 3,189 but the bulls will need a close above 3,200 to convince us a continued rally is in the cards.
The Russell 2000 slipped a point and went out at 856 after holding 850 all day. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 13.88, down 0.30) dropped 2% and touched a low of 13.61.
Futures are showing a lower start this morning: Dow (-49); S&P 500 (-6); Nasdaq 100 (-9). Philadelphia Fed figures will be out at 10am along with Leading Indicators.
We have updates our current trades and there were a few others we like on our Watch List as possible candidates. We may have a New Trade or a Trade Alert again this morning so look for possible action to take between 10am-11am.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Apple Pushes $675
Thursday, October 4th, 2012
12:00pm (EST)
The bulls are once again pushing resistance as we head into the second half of trading but as we have seen all week, the trouble has been holding these levels on the close. Some of the talking heads are calling it a Romney Rally and we talked about this last month on how this theme could come up. However, until we break resistance (or another wave of support). The market remains in a trading range.
Before we cover the numbers, we wanted to do another quick update on Apple (AAPL, $671.02, down $0.43) as shares have traded on both sides of the ledger today. The stock has reached a high of $674.25 but has pulled since.
The talking heads must have read our midday update on Tuesday because they confirmed our speculation yesterday that Apple could announce the iPad mini this month. Of course, we have been mentioning for a few weeks now that the new iPad announcement was coming but we were hoping the news would have come next week as we were looking to get into some Apple call options.
We said the announcement could come as soon as October 10 and our plan was to pick up some near-term options next Tuesday, October 9.
We profiled the WEEKLY October 675 calls (AAPL121005C00675000, $3.00, down $0.50) on Tuesday and at the time they were going for $1.90. They doubled in less than 48 hours after kissing a high of $3.90 this morning.
The October 675 (AAPL121020C00675000, $13.60, down $0.25) were super expensive and were going for $9.90 per contract midday on Tuesday. These options hit a high of $14.80 earlier today, representing a 50% gain.
We said to watch the $650 level on Tuesday to see if it would serve as support and if so, it could be a signal to go long. Shares were at $658 midday and did indeed test a low of $650.65 shortly after our update. These means both call options actually got cheaper, providing great entry prices at support.
Although we missed the gravy train on these two trades, we said we wanted to review how we trade because we have so many new subscribers. We have been working hard updating our options trading manual, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, and we thought we would share with you how we look at and find trades before we release the updated version in December.
If you are in this trade, we would lock up profits on the WEEKLY call options RIGHT NOW. We mentioned $675 was prior support and this will be the first level of resistance. While it would be nice to hold the regular October 675 calls for a chance at Apple running to $700, we would take the safe money and also lock-in profits if these were official recommendations.
As far as the market, the Dow is up 63 points to 13,557 while the S&P 500 is higher by 7 points to 1,458. The Nasdaq is basically flat (+0.41) at 3,135.
Nonfarm Payrolls are due out before the bell on Friday so we could have a volatile day. The suit-and-ties are looking for a number of at least 120,000 jobs and anything north of this could lead to a break past resistance. If the print is under this level, or heaven forbid under 100K, the bears will pounce.
We have action to take on a trade that is up 111% so let’s go ring the register! This marks our 19th winning trade out of our last 21 recommendations since mid-August.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Apple, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off