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Wednesday, November 25th, 2009
11:10am (EST)
We were betting on a good housing number this morning and we got it.
The Commerce Department reported sales rose 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 from an upwardly revised 405,000 in September. Wall Street had expected a number of 410,000.
The surge in sales was driven mostly by a 23% increase in the South. Sales fell 5% in the West and Northeast, and a whopping 20% in the Midwest but overall, the report was well received. We did our research last night and we were seeing some things that had us pretty bullish.
As a result, most of the homebuilding stocks we follow got a lift. KB Home (KB, $13.87, up $0.13), Lennar (LEN, $13.18, up $0.14), Pulte Homes (PHM, $9.43, up $0.13) and Toll Brothers (TOL, $19.53, up $0.03) are all showing slight gains.
The Dow didn’t quite get the pop we were expecting this morning at the open but the index is still up 24 points to 10,458. The S&P 500 is currently higher by 2 to 1,108 while the Nasdaq is showing a 7 point gain and is at 2,176.
We also note that gold is still hot…the yellow metal is up another $14 to $1,179/ ounce.
We wanted to get today’s update out a little early because we know many of you are headed out for the holidays. We will be back Friday morning with our next update and we hope all of you have a Great Thanksgiving! Stay long and strong…
Tags: KB Home, Lennar, momentum stock option trading, Moody’s, Netflix, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, Pulte Homes, support and resistance levels, Toll Brothers, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, November 25th, 2009
9:00am (EST)
To quote a famous football coach of the Green Bay Packers back in the day…
“What the hell is going on around here?”…
We did a big write-up on A123 Systems (AONE, $17.09, up $2.56) yesterday at 12:45pm when the stock was at $14.75 and shortly after 1pm the stock started soaring. There was no specific news so we are not sure of why the shares surged 17% after we profiled the company.
We did NOT list any call options but if you looked up the stock quote shortly after our update then please email us and say you were able to get into the December 17.50 calls (ZKQLW, $0.95, up $0.80) at lower prices.
Folks, these call options OPENED at 20 cents and traded to a low of 15 cents before ZOOMING over 500% yesterday! The option activity was brisk as nearly 5,000 contracts traded hands. Incredible.
We wish we could take credit for the trade and maybe it was our loyal readers who started to take positions but again, we didn’t list these options as a trade. The only “catalyst” out there could be the news that U.S. electric sports car maker Tesla Motors plans to go public soon.
In any event, we were thisclose to hitting a homerun this week but keep an eye on these call options. We still don’t know where they will end up but consider it a free trade if it does well from here (sly grin). If the stock falls back to $14 then maybe we ”strangle” it with an option trade to capture the volatility for some nice profits.
We have been trying to catch A123 but the price action is hard to predict given the shares have only been trading for a few months. The company’s stock climbed to nearly $20 on the first day of trading (September 24th), a 45% increase from its IPO price of $14. Two weeks later, it made a high of $28.20.
These are the types of stocks we LOVE to trade but we have to be careful with the swings.
Breaking economic news…
Weekly Jobless claims dropped 35,000 for the week ending 11/21 to 466,000, October personal income was up 0.2% and personal spending was up 0.7%. One negative was the durable goods order which came in at -0.6%.
Futures were already higher before the rash of economic news and held up strong following the reports. Dow futures are currently up 63 points to 10,468 while the S&P 500 futures are up 7 to 1,110. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 10 1,796.
We do profile a NEW TRADE this morning and we like its potential for a double. The trade is a play on the housing sector. Current subscribers, please check the Members Area NOW for the trade updates as well…
Tags: A123 Systems, American International Group, Apple, momentum stock option trading, Moody’s, Netflix, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
Tuesday, November 24th, 2009
12:45pm (EST)
The market is has come off its morning lows but is still in negative territory for the day. The China news really put a damper on yesterday’s rally. The Chinese banks were pressured by concerns of capital-raises and some regulators want higher capital ratios.
As a result, the Dow is currently down 44 points to 10,406 and the S&P 500 is off by 3 to 1,103. The Nasdaq is lower by 11 points to 2,164.
All of the Financial stocks on our Watch List are mostly lower. These stocks have been tricky to trade which is why we are waiting for the storm to pass. We made some great returns when they bottomed in March and reported back-to-back solid quarters but we are in transition with them right now.
We haven’t shorted the Financials either although there are a few that we still think are due for major corrections…American International Group (AIG, $34.37, down $0.91) is still over-inflated and should be a single-digit stock as well as Moody’s (MCO, $23.64, up $0.67). Patience will pay-off as we feel both of these stocks are headed lower at some point in the future.
Another stock we were/ are looking at is a possible option trade in A123 Systems (AONE, $14.75, up $0.22). We did a big write-up on October 21st and we simply blew this one folks. The stock was at $24 and now stands at $14. The straddle option trade would have been a thing of beauty and we do use them every now and again. We are bullish on A123’s long-term prospects but a spat a bad news has investors bailing like rats on a ship. Here we our thoughts a month ago:
“A123 Systems (AONE, $24.63, up $0.11) is the one we want to start watching…like a hawk. Its 52-week high is $28.20.
A few things we like to see are volume and volatility and this stock has both. The average daily volume is over 5 million shares and the option pits are pretty liquid.
The company makes lithium-ion batteries and had high hopes over a year ago as they thought they were closing in on a Chevy Volt contract but eventually lost out. However, they signed a deal to supply Chrysler with batteries for its cars. And the market for these types of batteries is HUGE.
Besides cars, think smartphones and other products…every iPod, iPhone and Apple laptop has a lithium-ion battery. The “new” battery is smaller, more energy efficient, longer lasting, and are effectively replacing the previous generation of nickel metal hydride batteries.
Of course, there is competition in the space but with other car manufacturers joining the race for electric cars, and the transition over to these batteries have dramatically improved the potential market. However, many other would-be competitors have not even begun mass production yet which will play into A123’s hand once demand starts to peak.
A123 will likely play a big role for temporary energy storage for utilities and they were recently awarded a $250 million grant from the Department of Energy to build a manufacturing plant.
On the negative side, the stock could see some selling pressure once their “lock-up period” is up. Typically, when a company goes public, its insiders can’t sell their shares for a certain period of time which is usually 90 days to a year. If a company is full of smoke-and-mirrors or has some skeletons in its closet, company insiders who know about them can’t act on this “inside” knowledge until after the lock-up period has ended. They will start to sell stock before the public learns of any bad news hoping to get out at the top.
Now, I’m not saying A123 is shady or anything, I’m just explaining how the IPO market works.
A123 appears to be a boom or bust company and from the way it has been trading it has become clear there is action in the stock. The key for us will be to watch for an opportunity to get into some options. We might go long, we might go short, or we might do a straddle or strangle trade. However, we have to wait for our opportunity.
Keep this one on your Watch List and when we see a trade, we will alert our subscribers.” (END)
Well, the “hawk” left its perch and we didn’t get into a trade. Bummer.
We are excited about the possibilities of an Apple (AAPL, $204.12, down $1.76) deal in the future but the company has been hit with some bad news of late that has caused a steep drop in its shares.
Fiat recently tinkered with Chrysler’s electric car plans which included A123’s batteries and this has caused some concerns due to the uncertainty. The company also recently announced earnings and posted a $23 million loss but did see an increase in revenue.
On the bright side, electric cars are the future and there is a major push for their development. President Barack Obama’s recent China visit was a good indication that things will happen sooner rather than later. He has called for the U.S.-China Electric Vehicles Initiative to help get the snowball rolling.
We are still uncertain of the direction A123 Systems shares take from here but we would think most of the “bad” news is already priced into the stock.
Only time will tell if electric cars will turn into an avalanche for the American consumer but if you can identify the companies that have their fingers in the pie before it is main stream then there may be some opportunities down the road.
Which brings up a good point.
Most of you know we are working hard to get the “Momentum Options Trading” Playbook (or whatever we call it) ready and it is our trading manual that is aimed at teaching you how to trade options and to find your own trades. The manual will go hand-in-hand with the website and we really believe it is a must read if you really want to understand the market and to get a better “feel” for our trades.
Yes, we are an option trading service but we also want to be your mentor as well. We have repeatedly said we will limit the number of subscribers we are allowing because we don’t want our trades crowded but we also want you to LEARN how to trade options. We have a success rate of 80% on our trades and it isn’t by accident.
We hope that you seriously consider a subscription before we are full. We cover a lot of things outside of the Members Area but today we wanted to bring you a short story on A123 Systems.
Tags: A123 Systems, American International Group, Apple, momentum stock option trading, Moody's, Netflix, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Apple, Company Commentary, Earnings, Financial Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades, Sectors, Strategies, Trading Psychology, strangle option trades | Comments Off
Tuesday, November 24th, 2009
9:10am (EST)
The market bounced back in strong fashion yesterday as the bulls snapped a three-day slide and took the Dow to new highs yesterday. The Dow gained 132 points to finish at 10,450 after reaching a high of 10,524. The S&P 500 added 15 points to close at 1,106 while the Nasdaq was higher by 30 points and settled at 2,176.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, $51.02, up $0.98) reported earnings Monday after the market closed of $2.4 billion, or $0.99 a share, versus $2.1 billion, or $0.84 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, net income was $1.14 a share which matched Wall Street’s expectations.
Revenue fell 8% to $30.8 billion but was $400,000 ahead of expectations. This was a good sign as we have been saying that we would have to start seeing some revenue growth. The other bit of good news was the HP raised its 2010’s earnings.
The company now expects to earn between $4.25 and $4.35 a share for the year, compared to earlier forecasts between $4.20 and $4.30 a share. Revenue is expected come in at $118-$119 billion, compared to its previous forecast of $117-$118 billion. Wall Street is expecting full-year 2010 earnings of $4.32 a share on revenue of $118.9 billion.
In economic news, third quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) increased 2.8%, which in-line with what was widely expected, but down from the 3.5% increase that was posted as part of the advance GDP estimate. Personal consumption was revised downward to reflect a 2.9% increase, which was not as strong as the 3.2% increase that was widely expected.
The futures have been pointing towards a lower open but they have improved since last night. World stock markets fell last night following big gains on Monday, with China’s stock market posting its biggest drop in three months after the country’s central bank warned commercial banks to control their lending.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up a point, S&P 500 futures are up by two while the Nasdaq futures are down a half-point. We may get a lower open this morning but sentiment is improving…
Current subscribers, please check the Members Area for the trade updates.
Tags: Hewlett-Packard, momentum stock option trading, Netflix, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Economic News, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
Monday, November 23rd, 2009
12:45pm (EST)
The market is off to a strong start this week and we called it right in the Weekly Wrap last night. Futures were pointing toward a big day and the Dow is currently up 132 points to 10,450. All 30 Dow stocks are showing a gain and the index has traded as high as 10,495 this morning.
The S&P 500 is back over 1,110 and is up 16 points to 1,107. The Nasdaq is up 30 to 2,176.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, $50.82, up $0.78) is set to report earnings after the closing bell today. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $51.43 which was set last week and there is a ton of action in the option pits.
Wall Street expects HP to report earnings of $1.13/ share on revenue of $30.4 billion for the quarter. There are 30 analysts that cover the stock and the high estimate is $1.14 while the low estimate is $1.09. This means there is a lot of room for upside price movement should the company beat expectations.
After the number Dell (DELL, $14.67, up $0.38) posted there could also be the surprise of an earnings miss. We don’t think that is the case as we actually feel HP has been taking Dell’s lunch money. The options look cheap for us to play a possible move to $55 should the stock get some legs to where we might make a double.
Current Subscribers, check the Members Area NOW for the new trade in HP.
Tags: Dell, Hewlett-Packard, momentum stock option trading, Netflix, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
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A123 Systems Jumps 17%
Wednesday, November 25th, 2009
9:00am (EST)
To quote a famous football coach of the Green Bay Packers back in the day…
“What the hell is going on around here?”…
We did a big write-up on A123 Systems (AONE, $17.09, up $2.56) yesterday at 12:45pm when the stock was at $14.75 and shortly after 1pm the stock started soaring. There was no specific news so we are not sure of why the shares surged 17% after we profiled the company.
We did NOT list any call options but if you looked up the stock quote shortly after our update then please email us and say you were able to get into the December 17.50 calls (ZKQLW, $0.95, up $0.80) at lower prices.
Folks, these call options OPENED at 20 cents and traded to a low of 15 cents before ZOOMING over 500% yesterday! The option activity was brisk as nearly 5,000 contracts traded hands. Incredible.
We wish we could take credit for the trade and maybe it was our loyal readers who started to take positions but again, we didn’t list these options as a trade. The only “catalyst” out there could be the news that U.S. electric sports car maker Tesla Motors plans to go public soon.
In any event, we were thisclose to hitting a homerun this week but keep an eye on these call options. We still don’t know where they will end up but consider it a free trade if it does well from here (sly grin). If the stock falls back to $14 then maybe we ”strangle” it with an option trade to capture the volatility for some nice profits.
We have been trying to catch A123 but the price action is hard to predict given the shares have only been trading for a few months. The company’s stock climbed to nearly $20 on the first day of trading (September 24th), a 45% increase from its IPO price of $14. Two weeks later, it made a high of $28.20.
These are the types of stocks we LOVE to trade but we have to be careful with the swings.
Breaking economic news…
Weekly Jobless claims dropped 35,000 for the week ending 11/21 to 466,000, October personal income was up 0.2% and personal spending was up 0.7%. One negative was the durable goods order which came in at -0.6%.
Futures were already higher before the rash of economic news and held up strong following the reports. Dow futures are currently up 63 points to 10,468 while the S&P 500 futures are up 7 to 1,110. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 10 1,796.
We do profile a NEW TRADE this morning and we like its potential for a double. The trade is a play on the housing sector. Current subscribers, please check the Members Area NOW for the trade updates as well…
Tags: A123 Systems, American International Group, Apple, momentum stock option trading, Moody’s, Netflix, option trading online, option trading picks, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off