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Bears on the Attack

Monday, April 23rd, 2012

1:05pm (EST)

The bulls were behind the 8-ball well before the start of today’s trading as futures were pointing towards a 1% drop at the open. We were pretty excited when we started to do our weekend homework because we were looking for a breakdown this week and we stayed up late to watch the overseas markets open.

Our chart work has been on point and we were able to lock-in some sweet profits this morning.

Don’t worry though.

We still see plenty of opportunities to ride the put option gravy train but we wanted our subscribers to take profits as some of our trades have hit up to 70% returns in a matter of days.

One of the best lines we heard over the weekend was Kenny Rogers who sums it up best when it comes to options trading…”you got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em”…

Kenny paid a visit to our Hometown and rocked the college kids so that was cool to see.

The Dow is down 145 points to 12,883 while the S&P 500 is off by 15 points to 1,363. The Nasdaq is pounded for a 40 point loss and is at 2,960.

Netflix (NFLX, $102.74, down $3.37) will report earnings after the bell today!

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and pay attention to our Stop Targets which are moving up as we want to ensure we lock-in even more juicy profits!

Tags: Netflix earnings, NFLX call options, NFLX put options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off

Netflix (NFLX) Beats, Shares Lower on Outlook

Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

8:40am (EST)

The market did next to nothing after our midday update yesterday as things pretty much stay where they were. The Dow and S&P 500 finished with small losses while Tech squeaked out a tiny gain. The sluggish trading was pretty much what we expected after a long holiday weekend as traders seemed content on watching Monday’s action instead of getting involved.

The bulls made little effort to push the market higher while the bears remained cautious ahead of a number of high-profile earnings this week. There were a number of Chinese internet companies that did well on Monday - Baidu (BIDU, $151.96, up $3.31), Sohu.com (SOHU, $104.14, up $8.45), and China Dangdang (DANG, $25.46, up $1.46) did well – but, all eyes were on Netflix (NFLX, $251.67, down $0.55) which announced after the closing bell.

Flashback from August 12, 2010 – here were our thoughts on Netflix after calling for a double a year earlier when shares were at double nickels (quotes from that day):

“One stock bucking the trend is Netflix (NFLX, $131.17, up $4.70) which is at all-time highs. The stock has been a rocket ship since last November when it was trading in the $50’s and is now in “blue-sky” territory. Wall Street stole this catchy phrase from the Allman Brothers and it is used to describe stocks that are at historic highs. Usually the breakout continues and a company will split its stock if it has a history of doing so.

Stock-splits are a non-event, really, except that you own more shares (unless it is a reverse stock split) but they make it easier for individual investors to afford the stock. We would like to see a split so we can play the options. We normally shy away from option trades on stocks over $100 so we would welcome the news.” (END)

Folks, we are amazed at the parabolic move shares of Netflix have made over the past 2 years and the one thing that has kept us on the sidelines is the high share price (because there hasn’t been a split) which usually means lofty options prices. Instead of paying $1 (or $100) for each option contract, you might be paying for $1,000 as the premium for a near-term strike price might be $10 instead of a buck. In other words, you are risking 10 times more money on each option contract when you can play stocks under $100 for much cheaper.

However, there is some good news. Netflix trades WEEKLY options which are way cheaper so there will be a trade down the road once we find the right opportunity.

As far as the numbers Netflix posted last night and what it means going forward, let’s take a look…

To read more on where Netflix could be headed and what options we are focusing on, click here. We also have some charts we want to cover today so be sure to check them out as well.

Tags: call options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, Netflix earnings, NFLX, option tips, options trading course, stock market options, strangle option trades, weekly options
Posted in Earnings, Market Commentary | Comments Off

Amazon.com On Deck, Toyota Tanks Again

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

12:45pm (EST)

The market is repeating a familiar pattern as the Dow is down nearly 151 points to 10,084. Geez, it looks like we are going below 10,000 as the bulls are nowhere to be found. That’s okay. We LOVE the thought of a correction and would welcome it with open arms.

After a decent open, stocks are selling off on some disappointing economic news.

Unemployment benefits fell modestly, dropping to 470,000 last week. Wall Street was hoping for much more and had been expecting a bigger drop to 450,000 new unemployment filings.

The durable goods report also is weighing on the market. Orders to U.S. factories rose less than expected in December, increasing just 0.3%. The market was expecting a 2% increase in orders.

We wanted to do a follow-up to the Netflix (NFLX, $61.68, up $10.71) trade from this morning. The response we got to adding these trades to your arsenal in just the first 4 hours has been an overwhelming “yes” which was not surprising once you see the results.

The trade is known as a “strangle” option play and they provide protection on a fast moving stock. The beauty of the trade is that you can be wrong on direction and still double your money but there are other features that are cool.

The February 55 calls (QNQBK, $7.15, up $5.70) which closed at $1.35 yesterday are up a whopping 400%. The February 45 puts (QNQNI, $0.05, down $0.90) are down 95%.

It would have cost you $2300 to buy 10 contracts of each yesterday before the closing bell and if you sold the calls right now you would have $7,150 in your account. Folks that is a return of over 200%!

This looks good on paper but please realize if the stock would have stayed flat or only moved 2%-3% then the trade probably would have lost money today. You also have to watch the price you pay for premiums.

Since the call options have been closed all you would need to do is let the put options expire worthless. However, they are still active so what happens if Netflix retreats from these levels?

Well, we don’t think that it’s likely the stock falls below $45 by the time these options expire because the Wall Street robots are out in droves upgrading the stock. There have been 7 UPGRADES from the brokerage houses this morning when most of the same knuckleheads had a “hold’ or “sell” rating on the shares.

If by some rare event Netflix does fall to $40 then your puts would be worth $5 and you have another $5,000 in your account. This can happen and some of the BEST strangle (and straddle) option trades are on Drug stocks.

We mentioned in November that we felt Netflix had a shot at $80 by June. We recommended a trade in the June 80 calls (QNQFP, $1.30, up $1.15) at $1.65 back then. We were stopped out at $1.25 because we saw the market punishing the stock for no reason. Wall Street started downgrading the stock right after we got in.

It’s amazing to see that the June 80′s closed at 15 cents yesterday and are up over 750% today! Wow…

We wanted to show you all of this stuff because often times Wall Street is too quick to fall in-and-out love with a sector or stock. This is where we make our money by staying one step ahead of them. They may have shaken us out for a small loss but we think there are going to plenty of new trades down the road for Netflix as well.

Since our response was so overwhelming we thought we would profile another strangle option trade to show you how it plays out. However, this is not an official recommendation because we haven’t done the leg work and we are winging it.

The premiums are probably overpriced or super rich for Amazon.com (AMZN, $123.19, up $0.44) which is why we won’t play this one but the ideal place to try and do this trade would be at the $125 level.

The February 135 calls (QZNBG, $2.90, down $0.05) and the February 115 puts (QZNNC, $3.80, flat) would cost $6.70 or $670 for just one contract of each which is why we said the premiums are rich and we are NOT doing the trade.

We will leave it there and do a follow-up in the morning. Amazon reports after the bell.

Toyota Motor (TM, $76.95, down $2.82) continues to get pounded after another massive recall concerning their gas pedals. Shares dropped $7 yesterday and could be headed to $75 where there is support. If that level is broken, the stock could be headed back to the ‘60’s.

Tags: Netflix earnings, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading, Toyota Tanks
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Commentary, Option Trades | Comments Off

Our updated 2012 Track Record is now at 85-18 for an 82% win rate. We have closed 24-straight winning option trades since late March!

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If you are missing these juicy profits, come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2011 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box below. 665 Total Trades; 459 WINNERS or 7-out-of-10.

I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
PARAG P.

Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

“Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

“Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

“I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

“I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

“I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

“I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

“Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

“I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

“Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

“Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

“Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

“Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

Jan. 31 2012
Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

3/18/11
Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

2/3/12
Hi Rick,

I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

Hi Rick,

I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
my brokerage screen.

Hi Rick,

Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

Rick,

Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
Keep up the great work
Thank you, Henri

Rick –

I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
You have made a believer out of me. Alan

Rick –
I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

Rick:
That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off.
I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service.
I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits.
Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

Rick:

Great call on GMCR! I have been trading for about 15 years actively. This may be the best trade I ever made. Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it. It went up further after I got in. Here are the facts:
Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
Gain for the week: $12,050.
I understand you will not get them all right. It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table. Who can complain.
Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
Best regards, Bob

Posts Tagged ‘Netflix earnings’

Bears on the Attack

Netflix (NFLX) Beats, Shares Lower on Outlook

Amazon.com On Deck, Toyota Tanks Again