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Wednesday, January 11th, 2012
12:40pm (EST)
The market has spent much of today’s session in negative territory but Tech is showing strength as we head into the second half of trading. The S&P and Dow are off their lows and are trying to join the Nasdaq as the bears are looking to slow down the bulls momentum into the close.
Tech is showing strength despite Microsoft (MSFT, $27.87, up $0.03) saying PC sales were off about 1%. Our subscribers recently closed a Microsoft January call option trade for a 124% return and we recommended rolling some of the profits into some longer-term options.
Shares appear headed to $30+ as the slight pre-warning ahead of next week’s earnings announcement doesn’t faze us. Microsoft should easily beat analysts’ estimates which is what we are hoping for at least.
While Wall Street is on lunch break, we see an opportunity to add another option trade. We have been watching a put position on a stock that has been on our Watch List and we feel a breakdown is coming.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 46 points to 12,416 while the S&P 500 is off 3 points to 1,288. The Nasdaq is higher by 3 points to 2,705. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the NEW TRADE and for the updates on our current trades.
Tags: Dow, MSFT, Nasdaq
Posted in Market Analysis, Trade Update | Comments Off
Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
1:30pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so we have to keep today’s afternoon commentary short.
Futures were pointing towards a nice pop at the open which was enough to push the major indexes right up to our near-term targets. We are still waiting for confirmation of a “breakout” to our upper-end targets but today’s move has generated some nice profits for us either way.
The Dow is up 65 points to 12,457 while the S&P is higher by 10 points to 1,291. The Nasdaq is advancing 23 points and is at 2,699. Tech has kissed 2,700 after trading to a high of 2,712 so let’s see if it holds as we enter the second half of trading.
We have been super busy this morning after releasing a New Trade and closing half of another to take profits of 90%. Some of our other positions are showing strong 30%, 40% and 50% gains so we are also getting close to locking in profits for those trades as well. As we head into the back half of the week, these trades could approach triple-digit returns if the bulls can keep the rally going.
Although our foot is on the gas pedal, we still want to close a few positions into strength in case there is a curveball or pullback after the run up to resistance.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay locked-and-loaded. We may have some action to take later this afternoon.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, option tips
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bears tried their best to keep the bulls underwater but the market continued to bounce off its lows into the second half of trading to finish in positive territory on Monday. Sentiment improved once the European markets closed and we face a few obstacles this week with some of their debt offerings but the market got off to a good start with Wall Street clearly focused on 4Q earnings.
The Dow added 33 points to close at 12,392 but reached a high of 12,409 which was all we were looking for after the open. The S&P 500 gained 3 points to end at 1,280 and kissed 1,282 on the cheek while the Nasdaq chipped-in with a 2 point pop to finish at 2,676.
We had some sweet pin action yesterday with a few of our trades and we have been giving you some nice option tips to start 2012 to get you on board. There are a lot of traders waiting for a pullback because we told you many of them took the last 2 weeks off in December and now they are trying to play catch up.
The Nasdaq jumped 43 points on the first day back to close at 2,648 and we said if Tech got over 2,650 things could get exciting. The close above 2,675 means the suit-and-ties and professional money managers have already missed 3% to the upside and could be chasing if the index breaks 2,700.
Alcoa (AA, $9.43, up $0.27) said some good things last night after the bell despite posting a loss for the quarter – its first in nearly a year – on lower aluminum prices. The company reported red ink of $191 million, or 18 cents a share, versus last year’s profit of $258 million, or 24 cents a share. Aluminum prices were down 12% in the fourth-quarter and nearly 30% from its April 2011 peak which hurt Alcoa to some degree.
The devil-in-the-details is that Alcoa took a one-time charge of nearly $160 million to shut-down some of its smelting operations which will help the bottom line over the long-haul. Otherwise, Alcoa would have checked in with a loss of 3 cents a share. Analysts had forecast a loss of 2 pennies a share.
The company did beat on revenue estimates, $6 billion versus a forecast for $5.7 billion, which was the best part. Alcoa also said global demand should grow by 7% this year which was ahead of the 6.5% that had been projected. In early action, shares are up 32 cents to $9.75.
Futures are showing a BIG open and look like this: Dow (+119), S&P (+14), Nasdaq (+24).
We will likely have another busy morning so stay on your toes for possible Profit Alerts or New Trades if our targets are hit or we see something else we like.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: AA, Alcoa Earnings, Nasdaq, option tips
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
Now we know why we learned World History in high school.
After a decent start, the market is pulling back on fears of a possible US conflict with Iran. Tensions have been rising for a few weeks over Iran’s threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz which happens to run 15 million barrels a day of oil through its waters, or one-fifth of the global production.
The country has been moved to the top of the global sanctions list due to its thirst for nuclear weapons and said shutting down the Strait would be easier than drinking a glass of H20. The US fired back (possible future pun intended) by saying no way Jose and will take action if Iran attempts to block the 4-mile width passage.
The US has been trying to, ah what’s a good word, “conform” Iran for decades and this threat of war shouldn’t be taken lightly. We aren’t worried about the outcome of who would “win” a war because it is never a good thing but the fight would be swift and Iran would suffer terribly. We are more worried about Iran’s hunger to build a nuclear weapon and the fact that oil could double to $200 if shots are fired.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to battle and cooler heads prevail but this could get ugly.
As far as the impact on the market, the bears are pushing support after the bulls ran the indexes higher at the open. However, once the US/ Iran news started making the rounds on the business channels, stocks pulled back. War doesn’t necessarily mean the market will automatically go lower and there our other countries who share our same interest in keeping the Strait open.
As we head to press, the market is near its lows. The Dow is down 133 points to 12,157 while the S&P 500 is off by 14 points to 1,250. Both indexes have slipped below their 200-day moving averages. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points to 2,595.
We have some more profits to take in case the pullback gets worse but we are looking for support to hold. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, stock market war worries, US+Iran conflict
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011
8:45am (EST)
Europe’s head honcho’s are falling faster than dominoes as Greece’s Prime Minster dropped first followed by Italy’s – once their austerity budgets pass. Unfortunately, the US will have to wait until 2012 to get some new knuckleheads in office but hopefully they are business people who can create jobs. In any event, we mentioned yesterday in our midday update the action has been hot in the afternoon and the bulls plowed ahead right on cue.
The Dow rolled higher by 102 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 12,170. The index reached a peak of 12,187 and we said to watch for a run to 12,200 first, followed by 12,350.
The S&P jumped 15 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 1,275-and change. The high was 1,277 and we penciled-in 1,300 Sunday night/ Monday morning in our Weekly Wrap.
The Nasdaq popped 32 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,727. We said a run to 2,750 was possible this week and we are halfway there – with the bears living on a prayer.
The push to the next layer of resistance was nice but futures are pointing towards a nasty open this morning which means we will test support again. We had 2 new trades we were looking to get into this morning but let’s see how the action plays out.
Also, be on the lookout for possible Trade Alerts if we close any current recommendations or need to make any adjustments. For those of you who are trading course members, we did a video late last night that is 25 minutes long so we wanted to send today’s morning issue out a little early so you have plenty of time to prepare for today’s action.
As we head to press, here’s the deal: Dow futures (-223); S&P 500 futures (-30); Nasdaq 100 futures (-45).
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Bulls Pushing July 2011 Highs
Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
1:30pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so we have to keep today’s afternoon commentary short.
Futures were pointing towards a nice pop at the open which was enough to push the major indexes right up to our near-term targets. We are still waiting for confirmation of a “breakout” to our upper-end targets but today’s move has generated some nice profits for us either way.
The Dow is up 65 points to 12,457 while the S&P is higher by 10 points to 1,291. The Nasdaq is advancing 23 points and is at 2,699. Tech has kissed 2,700 after trading to a high of 2,712 so let’s see if it holds as we enter the second half of trading.
We have been super busy this morning after releasing a New Trade and closing half of another to take profits of 90%. Some of our other positions are showing strong 30%, 40% and 50% gains so we are also getting close to locking in profits for those trades as well. As we head into the back half of the week, these trades could approach triple-digit returns if the bulls can keep the rally going.
Although our foot is on the gas pedal, we still want to close a few positions into strength in case there is a curveball or pullback after the run up to resistance.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay locked-and-loaded. We may have some action to take later this afternoon.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, option tips
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off