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Thursday, March 10th, 2011
1:20pm (EST)
The bears have used a bevy of negative news to push the market down to support levels once again. Oil, China, Spain, and unemployment claims are the major negative headlines that led to a big gap down at the open which is where we have spent much of today’s session.
Oil is down $2 to $102 but the geopolitical concerns in Libya have gotten more serious. Moody’s (MCO, $31.93, down $0.46) downgraded Spain’s debt and issued a negative outlook. China’s posted its largest trade deficit in 7 years at $7 billion. And finally, here in the U.S., initial weekly jobless claims were greater-than-expected at 397,000 while the trade deficit for January increased to $46.3 billion from $40.3 billion in the prior month.
As result, all three indexes are right at support and at crucial levels of a trend change.
The Dow is off 154 points to 12,058 and has touched a low of 11,988. We have been mentioning support at 12,000 and that got stretched but the bulls have to hold this level going into the close.
The S&P is down 17 points and is at 1,303 after kissing a low of 1,295. The bulls are trying to hold 1,300 but a close below here could lead to 1,275 and then 1,250.
The Nasdaq is getting whacked for 36 points and is at 2,715. The index has traded to a low of 2,695. The bulls will be trying to hold 2,700 into the close.
Although today’s sell-off looks nasty, there is a good chance the bulls hold these levels.
Sometimes it’s easy to imagine the future, profiting from it is a different story.
We do have some good news for you though and some of our subscribers are having a good day on the Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $58.00, up $60.81, up $17.17) news. The company has teamed up with Starbucks (SBUX, $37.77, up $3.23) and will offer a K-cup to coffee lovers.
From February 15, 2011 (Quotes from that day):
“We want to talk about Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $46.35, up $2.89) this morning because the stock has been a favorite of ours and a regular candidate on our Watch List. We have recommended options on them in the past. The weird thing is that Sunday night we saw the Starbucks (SBUX, $33.58, up $0.23) commercial promoting their instant (single-serve) coffee and “instantly” thought that a deal could be brewing between the two companies, quickly. In fact, we even wrote up a call option trade on Green Mountain at 10:30am yesterday that failed to make it to press because we wanted to close out a few trades before recommending new ones.
The call options we were following were at 28 cents and volume was at 60 contracts. Before the closing bell, volume had swelled to nearly 3,000 contracts. We aren’t sure if there is still a trade here but we investigate “the situation”. All signs are pointing towards Green Mountain making a run to double nickels ($55).” (END)
Inside our Members Area on that same day, we profiled the March 50 calls (GMCR110319C00050000, $11.00, up $10.60) which were at $1.40 after jumping $1 the day before. As you can see, these same options fell back down to 40 cents but are up over 3,500%.
We will be watching the close today for clues on where this market is headed but we are expecting support to hold with a slight bounce higher into the close.
Tags: MCO, Moody's, Naddaq: GMCR, SBUX, support levels
Posted in Hot Stocks, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, December 15th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
All eyes were on the Fed Tuesday afternoon as the bulls were trying to extend their rally while the bears were hoping for a miracle. Like a broken record, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) once again said it would maintain interest rates at their current record lows of 0%-0.25% after saying the “economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment.”
The market held its gains for a little while after the news but started to give them back in the final hour as the bulls and bears debated other meeting minutes. The central bankers have to be careful in their wording, obviously, because they know the world is watching QE2 closely.
The Dow added 48 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 11,476. The index managed to trade to a high of 11,514 and our near-term target is 11,600-11,700 by yearend. We believe a run to 12,000 is in the cards but it probably won’t happen until 2011. Support is at 11,200 and 11,000.
The S&P 500 traded to a peak of 1,246 but settled with a slim 1 point gain to 1,241. We are looking for a close above 1,250 which is current resistance before a run up to 1,275-1,300. Support remains 1,220 and 1,200.
The Nasdaq chipped in with a 2 point win and closed at 2,627 after touching 2,636. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell briefly into the red in the afternoon yesterday, before rebounding, and we are looking for a close above 2,660 for Tech. If the index can reach this level, then we have a shot at 3,000. Support is at 2,550-2,500.
Futures are pointing towards a lower open this morning and we knew last night when we saw the dollar rising and the euro tanking, the market would struggle at the open today. Moody’s (MCO, $27.33, up $0.08) decided to “warn” the market that it might lower Spain’s credit rating. Really? Long-time readers know how much we hate Moody’s because the rating agency is always late to the party and this is something the market already knew.
As we head to press, Dow futures are lower by 25 points to 11,396; S&P 500 futures are down 3 points to 1,233; the Nasdaq 100 futures are off by 6 points to 2,208. We closed two trades yesterday for gains of 140% and 170%, respectively, and we are looking for more. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest trade updates.
Tags: bear market, binary options, bull market, call option, how to trade options, MCO, Momentum stocks, Moody's, NYSE: MCO, option investments, option picks, option trading, options mentoring, options trading service, put option, stock market, stock market options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, May 31st, 2010
1:00pm (EST)
Sell in May and go away…
Those words were worth their weight in gold (pun intended) as the market ended the month of May with its worst performance in 70 years. After a yearlong rally, the bulls were finally challenged by the bears who may have been resting for bigger and worse things.
The euro has been the market’s darkest cloud for over a month now but there are other headwinds getting stronger that could help erase some or most of the hard work the bulls have put in since March 2009.
On Friday, Fitch Ratings was the latest jester to downgrade Spain’s debt after cutting the country’s default ratings to “AA+” from “AAA”. Many of you know how we feel about these “rating agencies” and all it did was help the bear’s case as the major indexes fell 1% on average after news.
Both Fitch and Moody’s (MCO, $20.50, down $0.38) seem lost and late to the party (as they have been for years) and the slash on Spain’s debt rating still doesn’t look “AA+” worthy. Seriously, with an unemployment rate among the highest in the world and a ton of debt, does Spain really look like an “AA+” place to be?
As a result, the Dow finished Friday with a loss of 122 points, or 1.2%, and settled at 10,136. For the week, the index lost 57 points, or 0.6%, and for the month it lost a whopping 872 points, or 7.9%. On Wednesday, the Dow closed below 10,000 for the first time since February and only the 2nd time this year.
The S&P 500 slipped 14 points, or 1.2%, to close at 1,089 after touching a low of 1,084 on Friday. The index actually gained nearly 2 points, or 0.2%, for the week, but managed to lose nearly 100 points, or 8.2%, in May and kissed 1,040 in the process.
The Nasdaq fell 21 points, or 0.9%, on the last trading day in May and closed at 2,257. The Tech-heavy index finished the week with a gain of 28 points, or 1.3%, but got crushed for a 204 point loss, or 8.3%, for the month.
Our instincts were right last week when we penciled in a move for the Dow to drop below 10,000. Although we didn’t close the week there, we still believe the index is headed for trouble. The Dow traded to a low of 9,756 and we said 9,800 would come into play if we fell below 10,000.
This is still the first wave of support but Dow 9,000 could be here by the end of June or July. To the upside, the Dow could test 10,400-10,500 on good euro news or other positive catalysts but we would use that strength to go short again.
For the S&P 500, we said to watch the 1,075 level as the first breaking point and then a possible test to the 1,000 level. We saw the index close right below 1,075, Monday through Wednesday, and on Thursday’s breakout we said to watch for a close of 1,100. The index closed at 1,103 that day and there is a chance for a rally up to 1,150 but we don’t see it. We said if 1,050 is broken, look out below.
The Nasdaq stayed right at that 2,200 level we were targeting until Thursday’s big pop up to 2,278 but 2,000 or below is on the radar. A rally to 2,300-2,400 would depend on the bulls but Tech will correct the hardest of the major indexes. The Nasdaq traded to a low of 2,140 last week.
Gold gained nearly 3%, or $32 an ounce, this month and closed at $1,212 on Friday. The yellow-metal is near all-time highs and is a good safety net for those that are nervous right now but sooner or later we think gold stalls. It’s hard to ignore gold’s historical rise over the decades but demand is actually down because of the high prices. Production levels of gold are pretty much the same and the trade appears to be getting crowded.
There are a number of events that will move the market this week with Tuesday’s April construction spending kicking things off. On Wednesday, the Auto companies will report May sales figures and on Thursday the Retailers will fill us in on same-store sales numbers.
The biggest of the bunch comes Friday when Wall Street gets another look at the unemployment numbers. The figure everyone wants to see is 9.8% which is a teardrop lower than the 9.9% print in April.
The water cooler talk is the economy added nearly 500,000 jobs for the month and the number of unemployed filing new claims benefits did fell last week. However, seeing is believing and a print of 10% would be devastating for the bulls.
We would like to see the market open with a little pop on Tuesday so that we can get into some put option trades that we have on our Watch List. There is a chance we can get you into 3 new trades on Tuesday and Wednesday as the bulls attempt to grab momentum. However, after one last rally cry, we see the market going south again.
We will be back in the morning with a fresh outlook and a list of the companies reporting earnings over the next few days but before we go, remember what we said last week after we closed 13 out of 15 winning trades since mid-April…
Buy when you are scared to death; sell when you are tickled to death…
This is what it feels like to buy put options when the market having a good day and a reminder for those of you who just joined us. We will see you in the morning and get ready to do some trading this week!
Tags: economic weekly news, Fitch, Gold, Moody's, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off
Thursday, May 27th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
The bulls put on a good show for much of yesterday’s session, but the lack of follow-through has been apparent for a few weeks now. Despite some robust economic news, the bears were able to erase all of the gains their counterparts had made and scored a huge win after the euro fell in late trading.
We mentioned yesterday in our 1pm update we didn’t think the rally would hold, and when word spread that China was reviewing its holdings of European bonds, well, things turned south. Folks, if China starts losing faith in the euro and starts selling some of its Euro bond holdings then we could see new lows for the currency which is already at a 4-year bottom.
As a result, the Dow gave back a triple-digit gain of 135 points to finish Wednesday at 9,974, a loss of 69 points, or 0.7%. The index had only closed below 10,000 once this year which was back on February 8th when it closed at 9,908. Since then, it has traded below that psychological level a number of times but has managed to close above it. Not yesterday.
The S&P 500 fell a half-dozen points, or 0.6%, to settle at 1,067 while the Nasdaq gave back 15 points, or 0.7%, to finish at 2,195. It was also the first time since mid-February that Tech has closed beneath the 2,200 level. This is the exact target we told you to watch for and yesterday’s close confirmed our beliefs that the Nasdaq will take out the 2,000 level.
On a positive note, we thought we would roll out the red carpet for Apple (AAPL, $244.11, down $1.11) this morning after the company passed Microsoft (MSFT, $25.01, down $1.06) as the #1 “Tech” company as far as market cap.
This is a rather important event, but even more glaring is the hidden message Microsoft’s stock price is telling us. Shares have folded like a cheap lawn chair since last week after basing in the $28-$31 area since mid-February. The next level of support for the stock is at $23 and if that is broken then Microsoft could be headed to $20.
Apollo Group (APOL, $53.40, down $1.66) and Moody’s (MCO, $20.88, down $0.36) are on the move this morning and were two recent trades that we recommended.
We took a 16% hit on Apollo after the parameters of the trade were broken but we have been warning our subscribers to stay away from this dog for years. Justice might not have been served on our recommended option trade, but the 52-week low of $52.20 looks like it will fall today.
We didn’t like the volatility when shares shot up to $60 last Thursday on some bogus rumor so we got our subscribers out. However, we should have listened to our gut as the stock looks poised to fall below $50 today.
Moody’s is another joke of a company that we have been all over like grass on dirt. Our subscribers took advantage of the commentary inside the Members Area and were able to turn a put option trade into an 80% winner. We were telling readers to take “half’ position profits in this choppy market, and we ran out of halves as we closed this trade last Tuesday. Shares are poised to sink below $20 this morning and we have said this stock was headed to the teens.
We have been talking about the “faded rallies,” and as we head to press this morning futures are showing a huge open. It’s a busy Thursday, but the Dow futures are up a whopping 154 points to 10,075 this morning which means we are going to have a HUGE open. The Dow futures were up over 200 points but gave a little back after jobless claims came in higher than expected.
We have loaded up our Watch List to take advantage of another faded rally this morning.
Tags: AAPL, APOL, Apollo Group, Apple, MCO, Microsoft, Moody's, MSFT, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, May 11th, 2010
1:00pm (EST)
All pun is intended from today’s title to Moody’s (MCO, $22.20, up $0.43) since the company received a “Wells Notice” from the SEC on Monday. Shares fell 7% yesterday but have bounced back a little today as the SEC plans an administrative review of Moody’s ratings procedures.
Finally! Somebody in the SEC is getting it. Here were our thoughts on March 15, just under two months ago (quotes from that day):
“Moody’s (MCO, $28.22, down $0.04) said the risks are growing for some of the world’s largest triple-A-rated countries: Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S.
And…?
Moody’s has gotten everything wrong, and we honestly don’t know why anyone would care what the firm has to say. They missed so many calls during the subprime and financial crisis that it’s hard to believe the company is still in business. Even harder to believe is the fact shares are trading near $30…” (END)
Moody’s played a major role in the housing bubble and was a walking zombie when it came to reviewing mortgages adequately. SEC investigators are calling some of the company’s procedures on its debt ratings “false and misleading”…two words you don’t want on your right and left shoulder.
We mention these things not to toot our horn but to show you possible trade setups for the future. We took our eye off the stock for a moment and it cost us a sweet put option trade.
It has been hard to short Moody’s because it is a government sponsored entity and seems to have staying power in the $20’s. However, these latest developments are serious and we wouldn’t be surprised to see shares trade into the teens over the next month or two. We have listed a trade on our Watch List in the Members Area that we have ready to deploy should shares bounce back up to $23-$24.
As we head to press, the market has rebounded off this morning’s lows and is in positive territory. The Dow is up 48 points to 10,833 while the S&P 500 is higher by 6 points to 1,166. The Nasdaq is showing a 21 point pop and stands at 2,395.
BTW, Gold is at a new high and is trading at $1,220/ ounce, up $20. Also, shares of Walt Disney (DIS, $35.82, up $0.53) are trading higher ahead of the company’s second quarter earnings release, expected after the market closes today.
We will be back in the morning with another full update.
Tags: MCO, Moody's, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading, Walt Disney earnings report, Wells Notice
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Dollar Strengthens, Futures Lower
Wednesday, December 15th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
All eyes were on the Fed Tuesday afternoon as the bulls were trying to extend their rally while the bears were hoping for a miracle. Like a broken record, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) once again said it would maintain interest rates at their current record lows of 0%-0.25% after saying the “economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment.”
The market held its gains for a little while after the news but started to give them back in the final hour as the bulls and bears debated other meeting minutes. The central bankers have to be careful in their wording, obviously, because they know the world is watching QE2 closely.
The Dow added 48 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 11,476. The index managed to trade to a high of 11,514 and our near-term target is 11,600-11,700 by yearend. We believe a run to 12,000 is in the cards but it probably won’t happen until 2011. Support is at 11,200 and 11,000.
The S&P 500 traded to a peak of 1,246 but settled with a slim 1 point gain to 1,241. We are looking for a close above 1,250 which is current resistance before a run up to 1,275-1,300. Support remains 1,220 and 1,200.
The Nasdaq chipped in with a 2 point win and closed at 2,627 after touching 2,636. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell briefly into the red in the afternoon yesterday, before rebounding, and we are looking for a close above 2,660 for Tech. If the index can reach this level, then we have a shot at 3,000. Support is at 2,550-2,500.
Futures are pointing towards a lower open this morning and we knew last night when we saw the dollar rising and the euro tanking, the market would struggle at the open today. Moody’s (MCO, $27.33, up $0.08) decided to “warn” the market that it might lower Spain’s credit rating. Really? Long-time readers know how much we hate Moody’s because the rating agency is always late to the party and this is something the market already knew.
As we head to press, Dow futures are lower by 25 points to 11,396; S&P 500 futures are down 3 points to 1,233; the Nasdaq 100 futures are off by 6 points to 2,208. We closed two trades yesterday for gains of 140% and 170%, respectively, and we are looking for more. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest trade updates.
Tags: bear market, binary options, bull market, call option, how to trade options, MCO, Momentum stocks, Moody's, NYSE: MCO, option investments, option picks, option trading, options mentoring, options trading service, put option, stock market, stock market options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off