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Tuesday, November 17th, 2009
9:05am (EST)
The market got off to a great start on Monday after a better-than-expected rebound in retail sales helped push stocks to yearly highs. Retail sales rose 1.4% in October, nearly double the 0.8% increase forecast by Wall Street. It was a huge rebound from the 2.3% decline in September. Even Ben Bernanke couldn’t mess yesterday’s rally up.
The Dow jumped 136 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 10,406. The S&P closed above the 1,100 level for the first time in more than a year by adding 18 points to finish at 1,109. The Nasdaq finished just below 2,200 and tacked on a 30 point gain to settle at 2,198.
We hate to sound like a broken record but here is what we said Sunday night in the Weekly Wrap:
”Our near-term targets for the Dow remain 10,300-10,400 to the upside and 9,650 is short-term support.” Well, the Dow reached a high of 10,357 and hit a high of 10,332 on Friday. If the Dow can break 10,365 then we could looking at, get this…10,850. If that were to occur then 10,300 would become solid support. Lower support still remains at 9,650.
The S&P 500 gained 24 points, or 2.3%, for the week and closed at 1,093. We mentioned the index was having trouble with the 1,100 level but did break the magical number twice last week. It was a little concerning though that we could not CLOSE above 1,100 but we should this week if the bulls continue to push. That could pave the way for a run to 1,200. The bottom of the range is 1,000 and even down to 970.
The Nasdaq made the biggest gain as it surged double nickels (55 points, or 2.6%) to finish the week at 2,167. We are looking for a close above 2,175 which could take us to 2,275. Support is at 2,000-2,025.”
As you can see, we closed above all of these resistance levels on Monday and we talk a little more about what this means in the Members Area.
Although futures are pointing towards a lower open this morning, we think the bulls are ready to run this week. The close above 1,100 on the S&P was huge and it could lead to some continued short covering by the bears.
We are trying to take advantage of this morning’s weakness. We have profiled TWO trades this morning in the Members Area that should do well if the market continues its winning ways. Current subscribers, check for the updates…
Tags: momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading, trading options
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades, Trading Psychology, Trading Tips | Comments Off
Monday, November 16th, 2009
12:45pm (EST)
The bulls are pushing the market higher today although Bernanke just took the podium and said “significant economic challenges remain” but that the Fed’s policy will help ensure a stronger dollar.
The Dow is currently up 118 points, to 10,387, and we have broken through key resistance levels we mentioned in last night’s Weekly Wrap. The Dow is off its high of 10,413 but more importantly we have cracked 10,365…
The S&P 500 has added 15 points and currently stands at 1,108 while the Nasdaq is up 27 ticks to 2,195. We are cheering for the S&P 500 to hold 1,100 convincingly today.
We have updated all of our trades once again so we have to cut today’s market commentary a little short. Netflix (NFLX, $59.57, up $0.24) has broken $60 this morning and we were able to get in our Microsoft (MSFT, $29.73, up $0.10) trade at our limit price this morning. Current subscribers check the Members Area for the HOT updates…
Tags: momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading, trading options
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, November 16th, 2009
9:10am (EST)
Lots of breaking news this morning…
Retail sales grew 1.4% in October, after a 1.5% gain in September but came in short of the Street’s estimate. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.2% which was below the 0.4% gain from last month.
The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State manufacturing survey also came in lower than expected. After hitting a five year high in the previous month, manufacturing activity fell to 23.5 in November from 34.6 in October.
Lowe’s Companies (LOW, $21.85) reported earnings this morning and said profits for the quarter were $344 million, or $0.23 a share, down from $488 million, or $0.33 a share, in the same quarter last year.
Results included one-time costs and if you exclude those items, Lowe’s earned $0.24 a share, matching Wall Street’s expectations.
Revenue came in at $11.4 billion, down from $11.7 billion, but beat estimates of $11.3 billion. Lowe’s said it expects sales to increase 3%-4% a year on average over the next five years, and average earnings will increase 15% annually. This stock is slightly higher in pre-market trading.
Futures are pointing towards a strong open this morning and we are looking to take advantage of the next leg up. Current Members can check for a NEW TRADE this morning, one we are trying to get at the open, in the Members Area.
Tags: Lowe's, momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading, trading options
Posted in Earnings, Economic News | Comments Off
Sunday, November 15th, 2009
10:30pm (EST)
You could tell the bulls were in a buying mood last week after taking the major indexes over 2% higher. The bulk of the gains came at the beginning of the week after the G-20 meeting said it would keep financial aid flowing until the economic recovery was back on solid ground. The Dow was up 4-out-of-5 days and finished the week with a 247 point gain to settle at 10,270.
Last Sunday night in the Weekly Wrap, we said had this to say about the Dow…”Our near-term targets for the Dow remain 10,300-10,400 to the upside and 9,650 is short-term support.” Well, the Dow reached a high of 10,357 and hit a high of 10,332 on Friday. If the Dow can break 10,365 then we could looking at, get this…10,850. If that were to occur then 10,300 would become solid support. Lower support still remains at 9,650.
The S&P 500 gained 24 points, or 2.3%, for the week and closed at 1,093. We mentioned the index was having trouble with the 1,100 level but did break the magical number twice last week. It was a little concerning though that we could not CLOSE above 1,100 but we should this week if the bulls continue to push. That could pave the way for a run to 1,200. The bottom of the range is 1,000 and even down to 970.
The Nasdaq made the biggest gain as it surged double nickels (55 points, or 2.6%) to finish the week at 2,167. We are looking for a close above 2,175 which could take us to 2,275. Support is at 2,000-2,025.
As you can see we are right at the top of these resistance levels so we either break higher or we drift back down in our trading range. As we head to press tonight, Dow futures are up 54 points which mean we are headed for a nice open on Monday if the overseas markets can hold their gains.
The US Dollar made a fresh 52-week low last week and kissed 74.77, its lowest level since August 2008. This has kept gold in high demand as the yellow metal made a fresh 52-week high of $1,123.40. We caught some of the gold rush as we went long Barrick Gold (ABX, $42.89, up $1.02) and netted our subscribers 38% in 2 days. We aren’t sure how long gold stays hot but we wouldn’t be surprised to see $1,200/ ounce…
We have a busy Monday as far as economic news. At 8:30am, we get the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Retail sales numbers. At 10am, Business Inventories are released.
Earnings:
MONDAY: American Diary (ADY, $32.43, down $2.42), Assured Guaranty (AGO, $21.66, up $3.56), Cellcom Israel (CEL, $30.76, up $0.10), Lowe’s Companies (LOW, $21.85, up $0.38), Perfect World (PWRD, $46.35, down $0.62), Sina (SINA, $42.42, up $0.27) and Zoom Technologies (ZOOM, $7.60, up $1.50).
We have a feeling Lowe’s might beat estimates and will report earnings before the bell. The last time they reported the stock got hammered and we stayed on the sidelines. There was heavy buying in the November call options. Check this out. These are NOT trades but we wish they would have been.
The November 22 calls (LOWKK, $0.65, up $0.26) jumped 67% on Friday while the stock gained just 2%. Over 15,000 contracts traded. The November 23 calls (LOWKL, $0.40, up $0.25) gained a whopping 166% and opened at 15 cents on Friday…volume was over 20,000 contracts. Wow.
Before we go, we wanted to share some research with you on our trade results since we started the blog over 18 months ago. Eric has been doing some number crunching on our 2008 and 2009 portfolios and even we started to blush…
Total Trades: 346
Winning Trades: 283
Losing Trades: 63
% Winners: 82%
% Losers: 18%
Win/Lose Ratio: 4.49
Average Winning %: 148.77%
Average Losing % Loss: -46.74%
% Profit / % Loss Ratio: 3.18
***What is this means as that Rick’s gains on winning trades is a little over 3 times bigger than his losses on losing trades. In a nutshell, you could lose 3 times and win once, and you’d still be at a break even (excluding commissions of course.) Most industry “gurus” are happy with 2-to-1…
If you are still waffling on a subscription we hope these results will ease your fears of option trading. We have a number of new trades on our Watch Lists for this week and if we can get a push higher we think these plays have triple-digit potential as well.
We will be back in the morning with the 9am update…
Tags: momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading, trading options
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Friday, November 13th, 2009
12:15pm (EST)
Looks like we missed the Walt Disney (DIS, $30.38, up $1.33) trade…
One of the best things about trading options on stocks you follow is that once you get a “feel” for the way shares trade, it gets easier in trying to find successful option trades. And it means both call and put options. Hey, stocks are like one-night stands. Sometimes you love ‘em, sometimes you hate ‘em…
Well, we had loved some Disney when we recommended going long on a call option trade that netted some of you 70% if you had taken our trade recommendation. Back in September we liked Disney as a seasonal play and here were our thoughts at the time:
“For the past 4 out of 5 years, Disney has traded higher from September thru October and I was looking at the October 26 calls (DISJZ, $1.60, up $0.35) on Tuesday morning when they were at 90 cents. That trade has done well in two days.
The October 27.50 calls (DISJY, $0.75, up $0.15) traded at 50 cents on Wednesday and will do well if Disney is headed to $30.”
Well, to make a long story short, we profiled the trade, hit our targets and then suggested closing the trade for a 70% profit. By now you should know that the company also acquired Marvel Entertainment (MVL, $52.22, up $1.10) so we thought this would put a lid on Disney’s stock until the deal officially closed. Today’s breakout has us jealous…
We said the Dow could be stuck in a trading range and in the Sunday night Weekly Wrap we listed a top of 10,300-10,400. For the S&P 500 we said 1,100 could be the proverbial “brick wall”. We would normally step in and maybe buy some put options here, but it is Friday, we are at the top of both those ranges, we had a GREAT week so we don’t want to push it. Right?
Wrong. Current subscribers, check the Members Area for the Netflix (NFLX, $58.47, up $0.28) trade updates.
Before we go…a quick update on the Momentum Options Trading Manual. We are shooting for a December 15th have-ready date and we are taking advanced inquiries on whoever is interested. Our special introductory rate will be $2,495 but include a FREE one-year membership to our website and the Members Area. This is a $924 value.
The reason we are doing this is simple. Our promise to you was to limit our subscription base to a 1,000 people and we will. We have to do this so our trades don’t get “crowded” and so that we can teach you how option trading really works.
This is a special introductory rate so once our subscription base is full you will only be able to buy the manual(s). The price will be $2,495 without a one-year membership. We wanted to offer the one-year FREE membership so that you can go through an entire year of following the market.
We have been in a bull market since March and who know how long the rally continues? Our point is that we want you to witness both bull and bear markets so that in the future you will be able to find your own trades. Of course, some of you may not want that and would just rather prefer our option trade picks which is fine too. But, once you learn how to trade, you will find that it is one of the funniest things in the world to do.
We will be back Sunday night/ Monday morning with next week’s market news so until then…have a GREAT weekend!
Tags: momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading, trading options
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
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Futures Pointing Towards Slightly Lower Open
Tuesday, November 17th, 2009
9:05am (EST)
The market got off to a great start on Monday after a better-than-expected rebound in retail sales helped push stocks to yearly highs. Retail sales rose 1.4% in October, nearly double the 0.8% increase forecast by Wall Street. It was a huge rebound from the 2.3% decline in September. Even Ben Bernanke couldn’t mess yesterday’s rally up.
The Dow jumped 136 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 10,406. The S&P closed above the 1,100 level for the first time in more than a year by adding 18 points to finish at 1,109. The Nasdaq finished just below 2,200 and tacked on a 30 point gain to settle at 2,198.
We hate to sound like a broken record but here is what we said Sunday night in the Weekly Wrap:
”Our near-term targets for the Dow remain 10,300-10,400 to the upside and 9,650 is short-term support.” Well, the Dow reached a high of 10,357 and hit a high of 10,332 on Friday. If the Dow can break 10,365 then we could looking at, get this…10,850. If that were to occur then 10,300 would become solid support. Lower support still remains at 9,650.
The S&P 500 gained 24 points, or 2.3%, for the week and closed at 1,093. We mentioned the index was having trouble with the 1,100 level but did break the magical number twice last week. It was a little concerning though that we could not CLOSE above 1,100 but we should this week if the bulls continue to push. That could pave the way for a run to 1,200. The bottom of the range is 1,000 and even down to 970.
The Nasdaq made the biggest gain as it surged double nickels (55 points, or 2.6%) to finish the week at 2,167. We are looking for a close above 2,175 which could take us to 2,275. Support is at 2,000-2,025.”
As you can see, we closed above all of these resistance levels on Monday and we talk a little more about what this means in the Members Area.
Although futures are pointing towards a lower open this morning, we think the bulls are ready to run this week. The close above 1,100 on the S&P was huge and it could lead to some continued short covering by the bears.
We are trying to take advantage of this morning’s weakness. We have profiled TWO trades this morning in the Members Area that should do well if the market continues its winning ways. Current subscribers, check for the updates…
Tags: momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading, trading options
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades, Trading Psychology, Trading Tips | Comments Off