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Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
Yesterday’s market action reminded us of Saturday’s Preakness horse race as the bears “had another” to claim the photo-finish win. The bulls led the entire session as the Dow and S&P were looking to make it back-to-back wins for the first time since late April but the bears won the race as the closing bell sounded.
The Dow slipped 2 points, or 0.01%, to finish at 12,502. The blue-chips tested 12,600 like we said they would but had trouble clearing this level as they attempt to make a run at 12,800. Yesterday’s low was 12,447 but the close above 12,500 was positive.
The S&P was up less than a point and settled at 1,316 after reaching a peak of 1,328. The move above 1,325 could be a clue that 1,350 is still in play but we are waiting for 1,334 to print as confirmation.
The Nasdaq fell 8 points, or 0.3%, to close at 2,839. Tech kissed a high of 2,867 before fading down to 2,823. The close above 2,825 was encouraging but resistance at 2,850 needs to be cleared as confirmation for a possible run back to 2,900.
Side Chart Notes: The Russell 2000 fell 5 points to end at 759 while the S&P Volatility Index closed just under the 22.50 level at 22.48, up 0.47.
Facebook (FB, $31, down $3.03) continued its freefall while its CEO enjoys the honeymoon, literally. Word has it that Mark and his longtime gal tied the knot, which is cool, and well deserved, but the timing seemed a little weird to us.
Most CEO’s don’t plan on getting married the day after their company goes public but a $20 billion bankroll sure makes the places and things you can do seem unimaginable. Good for Mr. and Mrs. Zuck but shares are starting to suck and were down another 9% yesterday.
The only reason we brought you this story, because we are tired of typing the name, is because the options should be listing in a week or so for Facebook. The premiums on the call and put options will be expensive and we might have to get creative but we plan on dabbling in them once they list.
Futures are showing a nasty open this morning after being weak for much of the night. Dow futures are down 95 points to 12,381 while the S&P 500 futures are lower by 11 points to 1,303. The Nasdaq futures are declining 21 points to 2,514.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Futures, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Wednesday, May 16th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market struggled to hold its gains on Tuesday and finished the session lower as the final hour of trading favored the bears. The bulls made a run at resistance which was prior support but it wasn’t enough to stop the current downside momentum.
We often say history likes to repeat itself while the suit-and-ties prefer to say history “reminds” us of the past. We prefer our way of shop talk because the major averages were dancing right on their January/ February highs and lows which is giving us another clear warning signal.
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Our subscribers know we have been in an 8-month zone in calling the current market tops and bottoms as we have nailed 24-straight winning put option trades since late March. We have been right on over 80% of our trades since late 2011. From January 2012 until the end of March, we loaded up on call options. We have been waening of the trend change that was coming.
Since the end of March, we have been in put options except for one trade which is a call option and is currently up over 235%. Our current 2012 Track Record is showing gains of over 600% as we are 85-18 for the year with numerous triple-digit winners. Some of our trades have made upwards of 570%. Seriously. If you had started the year with a $10,000 trading account, it would be worth nearly $73,000 in just 5 months based on making 100 trades at $2,000 or less per position. Knock off some zeros and you could have started trading options with as little as $1,000 which would be worth $7,300 by now.
We also have auto-trading brokers that verify our results for those who cannot watch the market all day long. They do the trades for your account and execute the trade instructions as soon as we send out an NEW option trade or Trade Alert.
If you are not a current subscriber but would like to see our Closed 2012 Track Record, send us an email. If you would like to join us, click here, to get our latest option trade recommendations.
Tags: February market lows, momentum options, momentum stocks options trading
Posted in Market Commentary, Strategies, Trade Update, Trading Psychology | Comments Off
Thursday, May 3rd, 2012
1:20pm (EST)
The market has traded in a tight range all week but with today’s losses, the bears are now winning the week. Economic news has been mixed with jobless claims coming in better-than-expected.
Initial Claims fell 27,000 to 365,000 versus expectations for a print of 379,000. Continuing Claims fell 53,000 to 3.27 million compared to a forecast for 3.3 million claims. Non-farm Productivity decreased 0.5% in the first quarter which was better than calls for a 0.6% decline while Unit Labor Costs were up 2.0% versus expectations for an increase of 2.7%.
Futures got a pop on the news and were up before the open but started to slide as we headed to press this morning. After a flat open, the bears got some good news as the ISM Service Report came in at 53.5 which was below the suit-and-ties forecast for a reading of 55.3.
While we too are focused on Friday, we did take a victory lap around the office as we nailed our biggest trade of the year so far. Two weeks ago we recommended a put option trade on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $26.27, down $23.25) that we felt had a really good chance of doubling. That was an understatement.
We have been following the company for years and when we first profiled the trade, we talked about the last two times the company had reported earnings. Here is the chart work we showed our subscribers on why we felt this would be a homerun trade as we had a good feeling the company would miss expectations this time around.
The chart work from this morning showed a drop to $25 was possible and today’s low has been $24.40. We recommended the May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $8.25, up $7.85) at 85 cents on April 17th and they have traded to a high of $10.60 today.
Shares did trade above $30 for about a minute so we closed the trade as we stuck to our trading plan. Although we left a little on the table, our near-term target has been hit and the options expire in two weeks.
We were able to turn $850 into $5,750 for a 576% gain but some of our subscribers have gotten out at higher prices. Awesome!
This was our second big earnings trade in less than a week that has made us some monster profits. Last week, we closed a Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $54.08, down $0.93) put option trade for a 180% win!
The good news is we could have two more trades that could be just as powerful. One more this week, one next week.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 40 points to 13,228 while the S&P is off 7 points to 1,395. The Nasdaq is lower by 26 points to 3,033.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and get ready for Friday!
Tags: DECK, Deckers Outdoor, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), momentum options, Momentum stocks
Posted in Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012
2:00pm (EST)
The market is mixed as we head into the final few hours of trading. The bears got a nice jump at the bell following worse-than-expected data from the ADP Employment Change report which showed only 119,000 private-sector jobs were added in April. Wall Street was looking for a print of at least 170,000 job additions.
Elsewhere, Factory Orders also were slightly ahead of expectations, coming in at 1.5% for March, versus expectations for a 1.6% drop.
Thursday is a heavy day for the market as the Challenger Jobs Cuts will set the tone and comes out at 7:30am (EST). Initial and Continuing Claims are due out an hour before the bell along with the latest Productivity and Unit Labor Costs numbers. At 10am, the ISM Services report is due out.
Earnings for Thursday include: Bebe Stores (BEBE, $8.46, up $0.52), First Solar (FSLR, $18.09, down $0.33), General Motors (GM, $22.93, down $0.38), Liquidity Services (LQDT, $55.49, up $2.52), MGM Resorts (MGM, $13.73, up $0.44), Public Storage (PSA, $145.27, up $0.23) and Trimble Navigation (TRMB, $54,15, up $0.20).
As we head to press, here is how we look.
The Dow is down 24 points to 13,255 while the S&P is lower by 5 points to 1,400. The Nasdaq is up 4 points to 3,054.
Some of our current trades are doing well today so let’s go check on them as well.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Challenger Jobs Cuts, MGM, MGM Resorts earnings, momentum options, Momentum stocks
Posted in Earnings, Economic News, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, April 27th, 2012
9:00am
The talking heads were in a good mood on Thursday as they cheered the bulls and talked about new highs for the market. With their third-straight win, it’s easy to see why they have become excited again and the close right at resistance is encouraging.
It is pretty amazing that we were almost able to call an exact close yesterday but here were our thoughts Wednesday morning (at 9am, before the market opened) as we have been expecting this rally back to resistance:
“Special Notice: Today’s bullish action is actually good if the bears hold resistance which will be Dow 13,200; S&P 1,400; and Nasdaq 3,050.
We have talked about the market doing a “back test” to previous levels and we showed you the downward trend developing in this week’s chart work. Since we have already taken half profits in quite a few trades, we should be okay on today’s pop but remember we still have over 3 weeks before they expire.”
The Dow surged 114 points, or 0.9%, to close at 13,204. The blue-chips stretched resistance up to a high of 13,227 before settling just above our target.
The S&P added 9 points, or 0.7%, and closed at 1,399.98. The index was thisclose to finishing above our 1,400 target and reached a high of 1,402.
The Nasdaq jumped 21 points, or 0.7%, and close right on 3,050. Tech kissed a high of 3,056 and the 52-week high is 3,134.
Folks, you can’t call it much better than that and futures are showing a lower start to today’s session.
What does it all mean? Let’s go talk about it inside the Members Area.
Tags: momentum options, momentum options trading
Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off
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Bears Have Another, Facebook (FB) Getting Zuckerberged
Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
Yesterday’s market action reminded us of Saturday’s Preakness horse race as the bears “had another” to claim the photo-finish win. The bulls led the entire session as the Dow and S&P were looking to make it back-to-back wins for the first time since late April but the bears won the race as the closing bell sounded.
The Dow slipped 2 points, or 0.01%, to finish at 12,502. The blue-chips tested 12,600 like we said they would but had trouble clearing this level as they attempt to make a run at 12,800. Yesterday’s low was 12,447 but the close above 12,500 was positive.
The S&P was up less than a point and settled at 1,316 after reaching a peak of 1,328. The move above 1,325 could be a clue that 1,350 is still in play but we are waiting for 1,334 to print as confirmation.
The Nasdaq fell 8 points, or 0.3%, to close at 2,839. Tech kissed a high of 2,867 before fading down to 2,823. The close above 2,825 was encouraging but resistance at 2,850 needs to be cleared as confirmation for a possible run back to 2,900.
Side Chart Notes: The Russell 2000 fell 5 points to end at 759 while the S&P Volatility Index closed just under the 22.50 level at 22.48, up 0.47.
Facebook (FB, $31, down $3.03) continued its freefall while its CEO enjoys the honeymoon, literally. Word has it that Mark and his longtime gal tied the knot, which is cool, and well deserved, but the timing seemed a little weird to us.
Most CEO’s don’t plan on getting married the day after their company goes public but a $20 billion bankroll sure makes the places and things you can do seem unimaginable. Good for Mr. and Mrs. Zuck but shares are starting to suck and were down another 9% yesterday.
The only reason we brought you this story, because we are tired of typing the name, is because the options should be listing in a week or so for Facebook. The premiums on the call and put options will be expensive and we might have to get creative but we plan on dabbling in them once they list.
Futures are showing a nasty open this morning after being weak for much of the night. Dow futures are down 95 points to 12,381 while the S&P 500 futures are lower by 11 points to 1,303. The Nasdaq futures are declining 21 points to 2,514.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Futures, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off