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Posts Tagged ‘KB Home’

New U.S. Home Sales Rise

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

11:10am (EST)

We were betting on a good housing number this morning and we got it.

The Commerce Department reported sales rose 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 from an upwardly revised 405,000 in September.  Wall Street had expected a number of 410,000. 

The surge in sales was driven mostly by a 23% increase in the South.  Sales fell 5% in the West and Northeast, and a whopping 20% in the Midwest but overall, the report was well received.  We did our research last night and we were seeing some things that had us pretty bullish.

As a result, most of the homebuilding stocks we follow got a lift.  KB Home (KB, $13.87, up $0.13), Lennar (LEN, $13.18, up $0.14), Pulte Homes (PHM, $9.43, up $0.13) and Toll Brothers (TOL, $19.53, up $0.03) are all showing slight gains.

The Dow didn’t quite get the pop we were expecting this morning at the open but the index is still up 24 points to 10,458.  The S&P 500 is currently higher by 2 to 1,108 while the Nasdaq is showing a 7 point gain and is at 2,176.

We also note that gold is still hot…the yellow metal is up another $14 to $1,179/ ounce.

We wanted to get today’s update out a little early because we know many of you are headed out for the holidays.  We will be back Friday morning with our next update and we hope all of you have a Great Thanksgiving!  Stay long and strong…

Homebuilding Stocks Get A Pop

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

1:00pm (EST)

Toll Brothers (TOL, 21.13, up $2.74) is up 15% today after surprising Wall Street with some rather upbeat comments ahead of its earnings.  The company said its new contracts are up over 40%, and that it expects 4Q revenue will top the Street’s expectations.

Revenue for the company is expected to come in at $487 million, well ahead of the market estimate of $386 million.  Comments from the CEO:

“We have definitely progressed from one year ago.  The shock to the financial system in mid-September 2008 that shut down the capital markets appears to be mostly behind us.

We have been cautious on the sector because we didn’t want to go long or short because of the uncertainty but this is the second straight quarter that Toll Brothers has said something “hot”.  Something to keep an eye on…

Toll Brothers is expected to release earnings on November 23rd.

Other stocks in the sector also got a bump; KB Home (KBH, $15.49, up $0.81), Lennar (LEN, $15.09, up $0.79) and Pulte Homes (PHM, $9.95, up $0.49) are all up over 5%.

We also wanted to update our trades one last time before we go today.  We got some breaking news on our retail trade that we just sent out.  Also, our Priceline.com (PCLN, $197.10, down $7.12) was closed as the $7.50 stop was taken out.  The official results for our 2009 portfolio shows a gain of 468%!

Current subscribers, please check the Members Area for the updates.

Tuesday’s Tidbits

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

1:00pm (EST)

The market has hit 10-month highs as the Dow is currently up 80 points to 9,589.  The Nasdaq is showing a gain of 15 points and stands at 2,033 while the S&P 500 has jumped 8 and is 1,034.

I mentioned in the Weekly Wrap that economic news would take on more meaning this week as earnings wound down and today’s rally can be attributed to the consumer confidence data and the housing figures.  Home prices rose for the 2nd consecutive month and when you throw in the Bernanke bonus it’s easy to see why the bulls have taken this market higher.

Homebuilding stocks (add to you Watch List) are getting a pop as Pulte Homes (PHM, $13.12, up $0.51), Lennar (LEN, $15.27, up $0.70) and KB Home (KBH, $18.15, up $0.65) are up 4%-5%.  Lennar was a huge winner on the short side a few years ago.  Here were my thoughts two years ago:

Lennar on 07/10/07:

“With the housing market showing no signs of recovery any time soon it may be time to take a look at some of the stocks in the sector that could be headed lower. While we may have arrived to the party late, I certainly don’t think the party’s over as the whole group could see continued new lows. Although it’s hard to predict where the bottom is for some of these stocks, I believe they could still see another 15% to 20% drop. As such, if my forecast is right, Lennar ($34.86, down $1.45) could be headed below $30.”

A note on Watch Lists.  This is how you find trades and this is how you keep track of sectors.  We have had a lot of new subscribers this week and I often talk about keeping Watch Lists as a way to keep track of sectors and possible trades.  Look, when one sector gets hot, another gets cold.  Money moves in, money moves out.  It’s an endless game we play and we can go long or short.  That is the beauty of it all, folks.  It makes what we do the coolest job in the world.

Speaking of which, have you seen the action in Fannie Mae (FNM, $1.88, up $0.18) and Freddie Mac (FRE, $2.14, up $0.09)?  Up 20%-30% yesterday on huge volume.  These two stocks were also a favorite punching bag of mine on the way down.  In fact, if you research this blog from July 2007 you will see where I profiled trades that returned 140%, 150% and even 216%.

I wanted to point some of these things out because the trading manual I have been working on is nearly complete.  We are also entering a “trader’s market” and I am almost 100% certain the volatility is going to pick-up even more so.  You have seen us take quick gains and it is okay to take a 100% return on half your profits and close the rest when they hit their stops.

You have to remember…there is always a trade and we are all about making money.  However, a lot of beginning investors will lose their profits because they don’t have a feel for the market or they think a losing position will come back.  On the flip side of that, some investors get a 100% return only to have visions of making 200% or 500% in a week.  In the meantime, they start to lose that 100% profit and end up taking a loss on the trade.  I’ve seen it time and time again.  So watch your stops and take profits a little early if you see something you don’t like.

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
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    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

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    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
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    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

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