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Wednesday, July 29th, 2009
1:00pm (EST)
The bulls seem to be on vacation this week and the ones left behind are trying to hold Dow 9,000. The market is holding up well despite the lack of momentum which is a good sign. There are still political and economic risks to this market and I mentioned this morning the bulls are searching for the next catalyst.
The Dow is currently down 40 points to 9,057 and has been in the red all day. We have seen some buying in the late afternoon and hopefully we get that going into the close. There are, however, some pockets of strength in the market and we happen to be enjoying those gains in some of the stocks that are trading higher.
Ford (F, $7.21, up $0.07), Bank of America (BAC, $13.69, up $0.35) and Microsoft (MSFT, $23.57, up $0.10) continue to roll…
The fireworks are coming after the bell as Cerner (CERN, $64.69, up $0.51), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $66.53, down $0.97) and Visa (V, $66.08, down $0.22) report earnings…
We were stopped out of the other half of the IBM (IBM, $116.37, down $0.91) August 115 calls (IBMHC, $3.00, down $0.70) and the August 105 calls (IBMHA, $11.69, down $1.17) are nearing the $11.00 stop. We were also stopped out of the DryShips (DRYS, $6.57, down $0.22) September 7.50 calls (OOCIU, $0.50, down $0.10) at 50 cents. The entry price was 35 cents which gave us about a 50% return.
That is all I have for now and I will be back tonight (by 11pm EST) to give the update.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: $64.69, Bank of America, Cerner (CERN, DryShips, Ford, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, IBM, Microsoft, up $0.51), Visa
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Option Trades | No Comments »
Wednesday, July 29th, 2009
9:00am (EST)
Futures are pointing towards a negative open after Durable Goods orders came in lower than expected. Dow futures are down 38, S&P 500 index futures were down 6, while Nasdaq futures were down 7.
I mentioned the bulls were trying to hold Dow 9,000 and with earnings season nearing a close the bulls are looking for the next catalyst.
Bank of America (BAC, $13.34, up $0.25)
November 15 calls (BYOKO, $1.00, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $1.50 (6/12/09)
Exit Price: $2.25
Return: -33%
Stop: If BAC falls below $11, close the position.
Action: This position has gained over 30% since Sunday night’s Weekly Wrap but is still down from an entry price of $1.50. Open Interest continues to build in the November options as the 15’s have an OI of over 100,000 contracts. That means there are a lot of bets being placed at the $15 strike and they are very liquid. This is great if you are trading 50 or 100 lot contracts. I still like current positions at these levels.
For our new subscribers, BofA was below $5 on March 11th when I recommended a couple of call options, May 6’s and July 10’s. They returned 400% and 500% as BofA stood at $10 a month later. If you do the math and the stock doubles from here it puts BofA at $26. These calls would be worth $11 and you would have a 1,000% return on you hands. Anything is possible, right? However, all we are looking for is a run past $15 so we can double or triple or money. (PS, if you haven’t gotten my track record for 2009 or 2008, email us by going to the website and sending us a request)
Cisco Systems (CSCO, $21.93, up $0.09)
October 20 calls (CYQJD, $2.50, up $0.05)
Entry Price: $1.50 (6/2/09)
Exit Price: $3.00
Return: 67%
Stop: $2.00
Action: Tech held up well on Tuesday and Cisco traded up to $21.99. The 52-week high is $25.25 which is my target for the stock. The options traded as low as $2.16 so we will keep the $2.00 stop in place.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $67.50, down $0.25)
August 80 calls (QGMHP, $1.50, down $0.10)
Entry Price: $1.40 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.10+
Return: 7%
Stop: $0.70
Action: The goal is to be out of this trade by the closing bell. We will be watching this one all day as the company reports earnings after the bell today. These options are inflated meaning the premiums are rich so be careful with this one. If you can escape with a gain, even if it’s 10%, it may be better than leaving this one open.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $39.32, up $2.21)
August 40 calls (BQUHH, $1.25, up $0.01)
Entry Price: $1.10 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $1.50 (7/28/09)
Return: 36%
Stop: CLOSED
Action: I told you the best time to sell is at the open and these calls traded as high as $1.60. The first 20 minutes are when the sharks are in the water and we all know sharks usually win these battles. I can’t stress this point enough to the beginners we have on board. If a stock is hot, the best time to sell is shortly after the bell because all of the rookie options traders were in there BUYING these call options on Buffalo reporting and beating Wall Street’s estimates. Each earnings trade is different as you will see and it’s best to have a plan going in and an exit on when to close the trade.
This trading tip is invaluable.
Cerner (CERN, $64.18, down $0.81)
August 70 calls (CQNHN, $1.20, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $1.30 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.20
Return: -8%
Stop: $0.65
Action: Cerner got a 50 cent pop at the open and these call options trades as high as $1.50. The company reports after the bell on Wednesday.
Another point I want to make is how some option traders will only look for a 20 or 30 cent move in an option and then sell it. If you buy 20 contracts and an option goes up 30 cents in price you have made $600. Do it twice a week and you are making $50,000 a year. Hard but not impossible.
I’m throwing all of this information and tips at everybody this morning because I’m trying to teach you how to use options and the many different ways people trade them. What kind of profits you want to make is up to each trader. And each trader’s strategy is different. Some people like straddles and strangles, some investors write covered calls while others get naked. “Naked” option trading is not my game but all it means is that you are taking on a ton of risk.
Microsoft (MSFT, $23.47, up $0.36)
August 23 calls (MSQHQ, $0.98, up $0.23)
Entry Price: $0.78 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $1.60
Return: 26%
Stop: $0.30
Action: Well, well, well…Yesterday I said “these calls options are technically in-the-money and we only need the stock to recover by 5% to make a decent return off of the trade.” Microsoft was in the red all morning but made a comeback along with the Nasdaq. The stock only made a 1.5% gain but the options gained 30%. Again, it was a short-term trade and I wanted to be out Friday. Hopefully we can ride this one a little higher but 25% is 25%.
IBM (IBM, $117.28, down $0.35)
August 105 calls (IBMHA, $11.69, down $1.17)
Entry Price: $3.40 (7/14/09)
Exit Price: $12.00 (7/24/09 1/2 the trade was closed)
Return: 253%
Stop: $11.00
August 115 calls (IBMHC, $3.70, down $0.40)
Entry Price: $1.05 (7/16/09)
Exit Price: $2.00 (7/24/09 1/2 the trade was closed)
Return: 281%
Stop: $2.00-$2.25, raise to $3.25
Action: We closed half of each side of these call options to make it a risk free trade from here on out. Our stops are in place and you’ll notice I raised the stop on the August 115’s. IBM has made a nice run but $118 is the new hurdle. The stock was down 60 cents in after-hours so we may be close to getting stopped out on the other half of the trade.
Visa (V, $66.30, down $1.89)
August 70 calls (VEHHN, $1.30, down $0.50)
Entry Price: $1.60 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $3.20
Return: -19%
Stop: $0.80
Action: Visa will no doubt be the crown jewel of announcements on Wednesday. On Monday, the company said it would “continue to meet or exceed” Wall Street’s expectations. The numbers we want to watch for after the close is 64 (cents a share) and $1.63 billion on the revenue side. Warning: If Visa misses or doesn’t impress the Street then these options will drop like a rock if the stock heads south.
DryShips (DRYS, $6.79, down $0.29)
August 7 calls (OOCHJ, $0.50, down $0.15)
Entry Price: $0.25 (7/21/09)
Exit Price: $0.65 (7/27/09)
Return: 160%
Stop: CLOSED
September 7.50 calls (OOCIU, $0.60, down $0.13)
Entry Price: $0.35 (7/21/09)
Exit Price: $0.70
Return: 71%
Stop: $0.40, raise to 50 cents
Action: I don’t like giving gains back which is why we closed the August calls on Monday for a 160% return. The September call options had given us over a 100% gain and our stops were set just above our entry point to protect profits. I didn’t like the action in DryShips yesterday which is why I raised the stop. These calls hit a low of 45 cents on Tuesday so if DryShips doesn’t rebound we will let the market take us out with a small profit. This is exactly why we sold the August options. DryShips is a very liquid stock capable of making huge moves but let’s take what the market gives us.
Ford (F, $7.14, down $0.13)
December 6 calls (FLI, $1.63, down $0.07)
Entry Price: $1.25 (5/18/09)
Exit Price: $2.50
Return: 30%
Stop: $1.00, raise to $1.45
December 7 calls (FLJ, $1.06, down $0.01)
Entry Price: $1.00 (5/18/09)
Exit Price: $1.50-$2.00
Return: 6%
Stop: 50 cents, raise to 75 cents
Action: It is looking as though Ford is trying to build a solid base at the $7 level which would be perfect for this longer-term play. If we can build a base at $7 then move towards $8-9 then were are golden.
Check back after lunch for an update on today’s action.
Rick Rouse
Tags: Bank of America, Buffalo Wild Wings, Cerner, Cisco Systems, DryShips, Ford, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, IBM, Microsoft, Visa
Posted in Earnings, Option Trades, Stock Earnings, Strategies, Trading Tips, Yahoo / Microsoft | No Comments »
Monday, July 27th, 2009
10:45pm (EST)
What a busy day it was for option traders. I threw a ton of trades at you this morning plus the ones we have going on. It was good to see the bulls show up as all three indexes managed to end the session in the green after a lackluster day of trading.
The Dow closed higher by 15 points and settled at 9,108. The Nasdaq chipped in with a 2 point gain and closed at 1,967 while the S&P 500 added 3 to finish at 982.
As far as the trades here is the list of the ones we added today:
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $67.75, down $0.89)
August 80 calls (QGMHP, $1.60, down $0.20)
Entry Price: $1.40 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.10+
Return: 14%
Stop: $0.70
Action: Shares of Green Mountain touched $70 then fell. It appears this will be the next level of resistance and time will tell if it is short or long-term resistance. The company reports earnings on Wednesday AFTER the bell so we have two full days to really see how this one plays out. If we get a run back to $70 the calls should hit $2.00-$2.10 which would be a great exit before earnings come out.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $37.11, down $0.54)
August 40 calls (BQUHH, $1.25, down $0.25)
Entry Price: $1.10 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.20
Return: 14%
Stop: $0.55
Action: As you can tell, I was “on the fence” with this one all day but pulled the trigger at $1.10. Buffalo rebounded a bit and beat Wall Street’s expectations after the bell. In after-hours the stock traded above $39, or nearly $2 higher, and finished at $38.20, up $1.09 by 7:59pm (EST). We will have to see if this holds up going into Tuesday’s open and if it does remember it is cool to SELL at the open. We are hoping traders jump in right off the bat so we can sell these calls at a high premium. There is serious resistance at $40 so watch this area. If the stock can get above $40 and hold then it could be setting up to make a run at it’s 52-week high of $45. If shares are rejected at $40 it’s telling us to take profits.
Cerner (CERN, $64.99, down $0.90)
August 70 calls (CQNHN, $1.35, down $0.25)
Entry Price: $1.30 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $2.20
Return: 4%
Stop: $0.65
Action: Cerner has been getting an upgrade here and there over the past few weeks and had been setting new highs before today’s pullback. The White House has said it will promote greater use of electronic medical records and that market is estimated to be worth $8 billion. Cerner hopes to get the biggest piece of the pie as we make better use of the technology. This company also reports after the bell on Wednesday.
Microsoft (MSFT, $23.11, down $0.34)
August 23 calls (MSQHQ, $0.75, down $0.17)
Entry Price: $0.78 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $1.60
Return: -4%
Stop: $0.30
Action: A rebound trade although it didn’t look like it today. Hopefully, we aren’t catching a falling knife which would be the case of Microsoft is headed back to $20. These calls options are technically “in-the-money” and we only need the stock to recover by 5% to make a decent return off of the trade. Remember, it is only a short-term trade and one I’d like to close by Friday.
Visa (V, $68.19, up $0.90)
August 70 calls (VEHHN, $1.80, up $0.45)
Entry Price: $1.60 (7/27/09)
Exit Price: $3.20
Return: 13%
Stop: $0.80
Action: We added this trade to the portfolio at 1:30pm (EST) after I sat around and watched the action for half of the day. Something about Visa had me wanting to recommend this trade and my hands finally spit it out when the call options were at $1.60. They opened at $1.35 so we missed a little bit if Visa is ready to lift-off. The company announces earnings on Wednesday as well.
The goal is to close some of the these trades in short order while closing out others. I normally don’t follow this many trades but this has been a great time to make take some action and added risk because of the bull run we have been on. Speaking of which, I also want to go over some of the current trades that we have already established positions in. Drumroll please…
DryShips (DRYS, $7.08, up $0.85)
August 7 calls (OOCHJ, $0.65, up $0.35)
Entry Price: $0.25 (7/21/09)
Exit Price: $0.65
Return: 160%
Stop: CLOSED
September 7.50 calls (OOCIU, $0.73, up $0.33)
Entry Price: $0.35 (7/21/09)
Exit Price: $0.70
Return: 110%
Stop: $0.40
Action: DryShips had a monster day, rising nearly 14%, after reports came out saying that the bulk shippers’ earnings should fall “in-line” with Wall Street’s expectations. Our goal was to be out before earnings and it was tough closing the August calls with such big gains. If you only closed half I would understand but this is why I “layered” the trade so that we can make it a “risk-free” trade going into earnings. So many times have I seen new option traders leave these gains on the table only to see them wiped out. Yes, sometimes, the type of trades go on to be grand-slams but you have to remember the price moves options can make. If DryShips continues higher we will still enjoy gains with the September calls.
Ford (F, $7.27, up $0.49)
December 6 calls (FLI, $1.70, up $0.27)
Entry Price: $1.25 (5/18/09)
Exit Price: $2.50
Return: 36%
Stop: $1.00
December 7 calls (FLJ, $1.07, up $0.19)
Entry Price: $1.00 (5/18/09)
Exit Price: $1.50-$2.00
Return: 7%
Stop: 50 cents
Action: These positions heated back today and I told you Sunday night they were solid. The December 6′s added nearly 20% and we are going to raise the stop from $1.00 to $1.25-$1.30. Ford got some juice as the “Cash for Clunkers” program had a positive effect on the stock today. I won’t go into the details but Ford went out on its high which is always a good sign.
As far as our other open positions, Bank of America (BAC, $13.09, up $0.58) added 5% while Cisco Systems (CSCO, $21.84, down $0.04) and IBM (IBM, $117.63, down $0.01) held their own.
I’ll be back in the morning before the bell with an outlook for Tuesday’s trading.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Buffalo Wild Wings, Cerner, DryShips, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, IBM, Microsoft, Visa
Posted in Earnings, Option Trades | No Comments »
Monday, July 27th, 2009
11:15am (EST)
DryShips (DRYS, $6.74, up $0.51) is having a huge day, rallying 7%, ahead of Friday’s earnings announcement. Here are the trades I profiled from last Tuesday:
August 7 calls (OOCHJ, $0.50, up $0.20)
Entry Price: $0.25 (7/21/09)
Exit Price: $0.50
Return: 100%
Stop: None
September 7.50 calls (OOCIU, $0.56, up $0.17)
Entry Price: $0.35 (7/21/09)
Exit Price: $0.70
Return: 50+%
Stop: $0.20
Action: The August call options have hit our target and have returned 100% from our entry price. It would be wise to close out the August call options now to lock in those gains. You should raise stops to 40 cents on the September calls to protect a small profit in case the stock retreats.
This will allow you to enjoy further gains if DryShips continues to run and the best part is you have already banked a double. I know it’s tough to close out a position that has returned 100% and looks ready to run further but that is why we “layered” the trade. Continue to watch both options but do not give back those profits by being greedy.
I also listed some trades from the Monday Morning Playbook and most of them have hit the limit prices.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $67.53, down $0.11) started off on a good note but has slipped. This is why I tell you to wait 20 minutes after the open. The August 80 calls (QGMHP, $1.40, down $0.40) had a limit price of $1.60 and you could have lowered this as Green Mountain came off its highs. If you like the trade this looks like a good entry point.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD, $37.05, down $0.60) has also slipped after a positive open. I was really hesitant on making this an official recommendation because of Friday’s huge run but I have mentioned it so I will include it in the track record. The August 40 calls (BQUHH, $1.10, up $0.40) are an all-or-nothing trade from here on out as the company reports earnings after the bell.
Cerner (CERN, $64.87, down $1.02) is taking a break from the assault on its 52-week high and the August 70 calls (CQNHN, $1.30, down $0.30) have come down a little from Friday’s closing price.
Microsoft (MSFT, $23.13, down $0.32) got some “short-term” buys from Wall Street analysts and the August 23 calls (MSQHQ, $0.78, down $0.14) look ripe for picking.
I’ll will try and give an afternnon update but I did this one early because I have a busy afternnon. If I don’t post by 1pm, I’ll be back tonight with a full update.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Buffalo Wild Wings, Cerner, DryShips, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Microsoft
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Hot Stocks, Option Trades | No Comments »
Thursday, July 2nd, 2009
8:00am (EST)
Sorry for the delay on this one. Lost my Internet connection for awhile last night due to a nasty storm…
The market continued its yo-yo ways as the Dow added 57 points to finish above 8,500 on Wednesday. We were much higher in the morning as the Dow traded above 8,600 but after a couple of hours we spent much of the day drifting lower.
The lack of volume was apparent again and this is one thing I talked about earlier in the week. I told you we could have a bullish week leading into 2Q earnings but I’m keeping a close eye on the volume to see if this picks up. If we can get some good earnings numbers, backed by strong volume, we could see the Dow over 9,000 in the coming weeks.
Then again, there is the chance we go lower or still stay in a sideways range. The first clue we will get as far as direction goes will come next Wednesday. Write this down on a post-it note and put it on your computer…Alcoa (AA, $10.35, up $0.02) will officially kick off 2Q earnings season as the stock always does each quarter.
Some interesting things from Wednesday:
American International Group (AIG, $18.08, up $16.92) soared nearly 1,500%…that looks shocking, huh? Well, that’s how some financial sites are showing the quote. My brokerage account shows a quote of $18.08, down $5.12. Either way, it looks like the “old” options were wiped out after the 1-for-20 reverse stock split took place. The only options I could find were on the CBOE but they were single digit calls and puts.
When a company does a reverse split, they normally don’t turn out to well, meaning, the fundamentals haven’t changed. If the fundamentals or outlook hasn’t changed, what makes the stock attractive?
AIG was one of the biggest trades I profiled last year and here were my thoughts. (Quotes are from September 15th, 2008):
“It was a bad day on Wall Street with the Dow dropping 504 points but it was even worse for American International Group (AIG, $4.76, down $7.38). The company said it would need $40 billion or more to fix its balance sheet and New York regulators gave AIG special access to $20 billion of cash held by its subsidiaries. On August 26, I mentioned we could see AIG’s stock fall and that the September 18 puts (AIGUS, $13.05, up $6.35) looked good at around $1.30. That was an understatement as the put options have now returned 885%.
Although AIG’s shares have fallen with the rest of the financial stocks, AIG has a significant amount of quality assets it can sell. The stock fell 45% last week and today’s 60% drop is being viewed by Wall Street as an “overreaction.” Call it what you want but when a stock falls from $70 to under $5 it’s hard to rally behind it.
What was really funny is the analyst who downgraded the stock to “Hold” from “Buy,” and lowered its price target on AIG to $14 from $25.50. While there’s a good chance AIG will survive I wouldn’t recommend getting into the stock at any level. The financial stocks have all taken a beating and it has a lot of individual investors worried to the point where they are selling everything. That’s sad because even though the Dow fell 500 points we have been making a mint by buying puts.” (END)
Whoever that analyst was, I wonder if they still have a job? I could smell the smoke before the fire which is why we did so well with this trade. If you want to read the other blogs on AIG, just type it in the “search” box up on the left. I’m not sure if we get a repeat performance if and when they do list options on the stock again but there may be an opportunity down the road to make something on a stock worth much of nothing.
Speaking of road, did you see the action in Ford (F, $5.91, down $0.16) yesterday? Man, talk about selling the news. The stock traded as high as $6.25 in the morning but sold off after Ford announced sales were down 14%. However, Wall Street was expecting sales to be down 17% so the company beat on those numbers. Investors just took profits after three days of strong gains.
The bigger story is that Ford is gaining market share and has done a great job of reducing its inventory. And all signs are pointing to a super back-half of the year. The December 6 calls (FLI, $1.10, down $0.08) traded to a high of $1.25 while the December 7 calls (FLJ, $0.74, down $0.01) made it to 81 cents. I still like them both.
Bank of America (BAC, $13.05, down $0.15) had the same thing happen to it after racing to $13.45 after the opening bell and actually finished lower. We are in the November 15 calls (BYOKO, $1.20, down $0.08) which traded to a high of $1.35 but the action was in the July call options.
I said there would be an opportunity to “day trade” options this week because of the expected bullishness but we haven’t gone “long” on any trades that weren’t already opened. The BofA July 13 calls (BYOGM, $0.72, down $0.02) opened at 77 cents and traded as high as 92 cents. The thing to remember is that you are only trying to hit “singles” this week, not homeruns.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $60.06, up $0.94) managed to hold $60 after busting through this level right out of the gate. The July 60 calls (QGMGL, $2.65, up $0.35) were profiled on Tuesday at $2.00 at 11am (EST) and I know I said not to leave anything open but these babies OPENED at $3.40 on Wednesday. Folks, that is a 70% pop in less than 24 hours.
The August 65 calls (QGMHM, $3.55, up $0.15) were trading for $2.90 and they hit a high of $4.00 yesterday. If you do 10-lot trades then you did well with these plays. If you are still in them, CLOSE them out TODAY. We have three-day weekend coming up.
The big thing we are looking for today is the jobs number once again. Wall Street is bracing for double-digit unemployment and the news will certainly shape today’s landscape. We are off on Friday so I will only be doing one more blog today before getting ready for the holiday weekend…probably around lunchtime, look for an update.
Rick Rouse
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Alcoa, Bank of America, Ford, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades, Sectors, Strategies | No Comments »
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Fireworks After The Bell
Wednesday, July 29th, 2009
1:00pm (EST)
The bulls seem to be on vacation this week and the ones left behind are trying to hold Dow 9,000. The market is holding up well despite the lack of momentum which is a good sign. There are still political and economic risks to this market and I mentioned this morning the bulls are searching for the next catalyst.
The Dow is currently down 40 points to 9,057 and has been in the red all day. We have seen some buying in the late afternoon and hopefully we get that going into the close. There are, however, some pockets of strength in the market and we happen to be enjoying those gains in some of the stocks that are trading higher.
Ford (F, $7.21, up $0.07), Bank of America (BAC, $13.69, up $0.35) and Microsoft (MSFT, $23.57, up $0.10) continue to roll…
The fireworks are coming after the bell as Cerner (CERN, $64.69, up $0.51), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $66.53, down $0.97) and Visa (V, $66.08, down $0.22) report earnings…
We were stopped out of the other half of the IBM (IBM, $116.37, down $0.91) August 115 calls (IBMHC, $3.00, down $0.70) and the August 105 calls (IBMHA, $11.69, down $1.17) are nearing the $11.00 stop. We were also stopped out of the DryShips (DRYS, $6.57, down $0.22) September 7.50 calls (OOCIU, $0.50, down $0.10) at 50 cents. The entry price was 35 cents which gave us about a 50% return.
That is all I have for now and I will be back tonight (by 11pm EST) to give the update.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: $64.69, Bank of America, Cerner (CERN, DryShips, Ford, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, IBM, Microsoft, up $0.51), Visa
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Option Trades | No Comments »