|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012
9:00pm (EST)
We have GREAT news to report!
Our Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $49.52, down $0.22) put option trade is setting up to be our biggest trade of the year after the company reported earnings after the close.
We have been telling our subscribers to hold on tight as we said Green Mountain could report a lousy quarter. That they did.
The company missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates as earnings came in at 64 cents a share on sales of $885 million. The suit-and-ties were expecting 64 cents on $972 million in revenue. To make matters worse, they also lowered guidance for the current quarter and cut full-year guidance from $2.55-$2.65 to $2.40-$2.50.
Shares got hammered in after-hours trading tonight as they are down $20 to $29.40, or 40%.
If shares open up under $30 tomorrow morning, the puts we recommended will zoom and could return us 600%! If so, it will be our biggest win of the year so far.
Of course, we still have to wait for the opening bell but Thursday is already looking like a sweet day for us.
Sleep tight and we will be back in the morning with our next update.
Tags: GMCR earnings, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters
Posted in Earnings, Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Friday, March 11th, 2011
1:50pm (EST)
The market is reacting to this morning’s massive 8.9 earthquake in Japan and tsunami warnings with choppy action as we head into the weekend. There are a lot of moving parts to the current market, more so than normal, which is why we said in our 9am update the next 30 days are going to explosive.
Futures were down 0.5% when we started our research this morning and the overseas markets opened lower. It was a dramatic scene as we watched the tsunami hit the shores of Japan and we hope people manage to escape harm’s way. Here at home, same deal as Hawaii and parts of the West Coast have been issued warnings.
Oil is lower by $2 to $100 and has helped stabilize the market which is in positive territory as we write this up. Economic news was mixed as Retail Sales for February rose 1% which matched expectations. The Consumer Sentiment Survey for March came in at 68.2 versus expectations for 76.5 while Business inventories for January increased 0.9% versus a forecast for 0.8%.
The Dow is back over 12,000 and is higher by 15 points to 12,001. The index fell about 60 points at the open and yesterday’s close below 12K was the first since the end of January. We are at the bottom of the trading range again but a close above 12,000 would be a positive for the bulls.
The S&P 500 traded down to 1,289 but is up 5 points to 1,300. The Nasdaq is up 4 points to 2,705 after trading to a low of 2,689.
We noted this morning how the bears cracked the 50-day moving averages (MA) for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq following Thursday’s sell-off and we have often said sometimes these MA’s can get stretched. All signs are pointing towards further downside but trading ranges are tricky and can fool a lot of people, even us.
We’ve gone on record since October and predicted a bull run until April and we don’t know of many newsletters who stuck their neck out that far. Since that time period, we have recommended 44-outta-51 winning trades, including 17-out-of-19 for 2011. Although some of current trades are down, we have played longer-term options because we have expected a down to flat market, before another uptrend.
If you would like to learn how to find trades and read charts then we really encourage you to pick up a copy of our trading manual, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks. Here is an email we got from one of our subscribers yesterday who did well on a Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $59.24, down $2.47) trade by using our research and reading the manual:
“I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options.
I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill at finding winning trades.
I have attached a copy of the trade from my brokerage screen. – Paul (END)”
Folks, we love these types of emails because it lets us know that our subscribers are learning options and spotting potential trades.
We have been running a deal where you get the options trading manual at no charge if you sign up for a 1-year membership to our Weekly Wrap or Daily publication. We think March and April are going to be loaded with opportunities to trade this market and we want you on board. We will be releasing new trades as early as next week and we have many more on our Watch List that should do well on a market breakout or breakdown. We don’t advertise this deal so take advantage of it before the price goes up and there are no more special offers. Shipping is also included.
We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap. Until then, have a great weekend.
Tags: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, momentum options trading, momentum stock, option trading course, option trading manual
Posted in Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Strategies | Comments Off
Wednesday, September 29th, 2010
9:05am (EST)
The gloves came off yesterday as the bulls and bears continued their battle at the top of the current trading range the market has been in for 4 months. The bulls resumed their impressive push towards a breakout but yesterday’s action also say the bears push the major indexes back below support before they rebounded.
The Dow closed with a gain of 46 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 10,858 after falling over 80 points on weak Consumer Confidence data. The Nasdaq advanced 10 points, or 0.4%, and closed at 2,379 and is now up nearly 13% in September.
The S&P 500 added 5 points, or 0.5%, and settled at 1,147. We spent a lot of time yesterday talking about the index because it means more than the Dow. The S&P 500 had trouble once again with the psychologically significant 1,150 level and bounced off a low of 1,132.
Folks, this is the range we are watching for clues on which way this market is headed. Above 1,150 we could get a breakout and below 1,130 we could get the breakdown that both the bulls and bears are desperately seeking.
Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $37.01, down $0.54) set a new 52-week high yesterday of $37.97 but that is the good news. The bad news is the stock got whacked in after-hours trading last night, and was at $32, following the disclosure of a SEC investigation. The news was released after the bell and has something to do with “certain revenue recognition practices and the company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors,” according to the paperwork.
Shares are down 15% to $31.52 in pre-market action this morning.
We talk about the “situations’ in our trading manual How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks. Watch the GMCR October 30 puts (GMCR101016P00030000, $0.08, down $0.03) which will zoom at the open. They will probably open near $1 or higher and they could be good for a quick trade today even after the open. Analysts will come out of the woodwork to downgrade the stock this morning and it is a game-changing momentum play. We will take a closer look at Green Mountain in our Members Area but we wouldn’t be surprised to see a break below $30 today.
Our trading manual is set to launch this weekend and we are excited to bring you our “Playbook”.
As we head to press, Dow futures are down 22 points to 10,766 while the S&P 500 futures are off by 3 points to 1,139. The Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by a point to 2,008.
Tags: explain the concept of options, GMCR, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, momentum options trading, option picks, option trading blog, straddle option trades, strangle option trades, triple-digit options returns
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, October 9th, 2009
8:40am (EST)
We all know that stock-splits don’t mean much in monetary value when a company announces a 2-for-1 split. It means you own twice as many shares as before but at half the price. We haven’t seen too many of these events lately because of what the market has been through over the past several years but they do happen. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $72.60, up $0.72) is a recent example as they did a 3-for-2 split back in June. They also did a 3-for-1 split back in July 2007.
In the past, when stock-splits were more frequent, a company would always seem to split their stock when it got to a certain price. Then again, there are some companies like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, $100,401.50, up $1.50) and Google (GOOG, $514.18, down $3.36) who plan to never split the outstanding shares. Yes, that quote for the Class A shares for Mr. Buffet’s empire is correct. For 100g, you too, can own ONE share of Berkshire…
Anyway, with Apple (AAPL, $189.27, down $0.98) approaching $200, I did some research to see when they might announce a split. Apple has split its stock 3x since 1987 and each time it was a 2-for-1 deal when the stock was trading at $80-$100. Judging by history, Apple is overdue.
I cover stock-splits and how to play them in the Momentum Options Trading Manual (which is almost complete and will be available soon) but it remains to be seen what Apple does. Normally you see a run into the split and a little after, then a sell-off, then another rally.
Of course, old market principles have been thrown out the window but it will be interesting if Apple were to announce a split. And what better way when the company reports earnings on October 19th?
Apple continues to push 52-week highs and by splitting the stock, it makes it “cheaper” for the investment world to buy shares at $100 (2-for-1) or $65 (3-for-1) instead of $200. Apple is known for making a splash and what better way to do it when the company has center stage once again in two weeks?
It may not happen but don’t be surprised if it does…
Quick Note: We are pleased to announce that we are upgrading our servers this weekend to allow us to send UNLIMITED emails to our subscribers. Many of you wanted this service because you told us you could not check the website daily (or at work, sly grin) and it was a GREAT idea. Because of this, the website may work slow over the weekend or at times may be down but we will be back to normal by Monday.
We also have the CURRENT TRADES update for this morning so please check the MEMBERS AREA for the latest and greatest.
Tags: Apple, Berkshire Hathaway. Google, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Imax, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option blog, option track record, Option Trades
Posted in Apple, Company Commentary, Earnings, Google, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Option Trades, Strategies | Comments Off
Wednesday, July 29th, 2009
11:30pm (EST)
Don’t shoot the messenger…
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $67.50, down $0.25) reported earnings after the bell and said profits doubled but they missed Wall Street’s expectations on the revenue side. I kept mentioning to get out of this earnings trade before the closing bell and now you know why…in after-hours trading the stock was down $5.
We did keep a couple of trades open going into earnings and we got a mixed bag from as Cerner (CERN, $65.13, up $0.95) missed the Street’s forecast while Visa (V, $66.78, up $0.48) beat expectations. So here is what we are looking at…
Cerner was down $2.63 to $62.50 in extended trading and the August 70 calls (CQNHN, $1.35, up $0.15) will likely take a beating.
Visa was only off by a $1 after the close and almost held even at one point. However, the August 70 calls (VEHHN, $1.15, down $0.15) still lost a little shine.
Now, this is important. There were stops listed for these two positions and they weren’t hit today but the Cerner’s call options will probably fall below the 65 cents stop. In other words, these call options still have three weeks before they expire so you can cut your losses or hope for a rebound. Go for the rebound.
With Visa, I don’t think the 80 cent stop will be hit but it could.
This is a tough call, no doubt. The thing to remember is that most of my trades DO NOT evolve around earnings announcements but every now and then I shoot the ball. It’s hard to tell people how much risk they should take on or how much money should go into a trade but if you look at the spreadsheet for all of my trades they are usually 10 or 20 lot contracts. In other words, I risk anywhere between $1,000 and $2,000 a trade. If an option is under 50 cents, I might buy 50 contracts. Or, if it is a risky trade I might only do 10 contracts which is $500.
So it depends on what level you want to take your trading to.
Trading around an earnings announcement is always tricky.
Now that I got that off my chest… Ford (F, $7.12, down $0.02) and Microsoft (MSFT, $23.80, up $0.33) have given us some nice returns while Bank of America (BAC, $13.52, up $0.18) wants to keep going higher. And let’s not forget what good fortunes IBM (IBM, $117.02) and Cisco (CSCO, $21.72, down $0.21) have brought to our pockets.
One last thought…Most of you know my “dislike” for Barron’s magazine. We had a few sweet Imax (IMAX, $8.78, down $0.22) trades that were making us some great returns before Barron’s ruined the momentum in the stock.
On June 25th, we went long the July 7.50 calls (IMQGU) at 35 cents and we played the trade like a fiddle. We had set an exit to be out by the July 4th weekend and we were for a profit of 143%. We were out at 85 cents.
Then came the Barron’s weekend article as Imax was setting 52-week highs and the height of the summer movie releases were about to hit.
The September 7.50 calls (IMQIU, $1.55, down $0.20) were at 85 cents in June and were stopped out at $1.00 on July 6th that Monday. As you can see, they have doubled. The December 7.50 calls (IMQLU, $1.90, down $0.05) were at $1.25.
Imax lost more than 10% after that Barron’s article but has since rebounded. I haven’t lost site of Imax and some of you may have kept the December calls open. Congrats.
Keep these on your Watch List but I wouldn’t pull the trigger again right now. Let’s see where they are next week.
Rick Rouse
Tags: Cerner, Cisco, Ford, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, IBM, Microsoft
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis, Option Trades, Strategies, Trading Tips | No Comments »
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Green Mountain (GMCR) Turns Red
Wednesday, September 29th, 2010
9:05am (EST)
The gloves came off yesterday as the bulls and bears continued their battle at the top of the current trading range the market has been in for 4 months. The bulls resumed their impressive push towards a breakout but yesterday’s action also say the bears push the major indexes back below support before they rebounded.
The Dow closed with a gain of 46 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 10,858 after falling over 80 points on weak Consumer Confidence data. The Nasdaq advanced 10 points, or 0.4%, and closed at 2,379 and is now up nearly 13% in September.
The S&P 500 added 5 points, or 0.5%, and settled at 1,147. We spent a lot of time yesterday talking about the index because it means more than the Dow. The S&P 500 had trouble once again with the psychologically significant 1,150 level and bounced off a low of 1,132.
Folks, this is the range we are watching for clues on which way this market is headed. Above 1,150 we could get a breakout and below 1,130 we could get the breakdown that both the bulls and bears are desperately seeking.
Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $37.01, down $0.54) set a new 52-week high yesterday of $37.97 but that is the good news. The bad news is the stock got whacked in after-hours trading last night, and was at $32, following the disclosure of a SEC investigation. The news was released after the bell and has something to do with “certain revenue recognition practices and the company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors,” according to the paperwork.
Shares are down 15% to $31.52 in pre-market action this morning.
We talk about the “situations’ in our trading manual How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks. Watch the GMCR October 30 puts (GMCR101016P00030000, $0.08, down $0.03) which will zoom at the open. They will probably open near $1 or higher and they could be good for a quick trade today even after the open. Analysts will come out of the woodwork to downgrade the stock this morning and it is a game-changing momentum play. We will take a closer look at Green Mountain in our Members Area but we wouldn’t be surprised to see a break below $30 today.
Our trading manual is set to launch this weekend and we are excited to bring you our “Playbook”.
As we head to press, Dow futures are down 22 points to 10,766 while the S&P 500 futures are off by 3 points to 1,139. The Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by a point to 2,008.
Tags: explain the concept of options, GMCR, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, momentum options trading, option picks, option trading blog, straddle option trades, strangle option trades, triple-digit options returns
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Commentary | Comments Off