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Tuesday, September 4th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“The market has another week of August before September rolls around and it is usually the most bearish month of the year according to the history books. August also has some bearishness to it but so far the market is up for the month. Last week’s charts for the major indexes and the VIX showed an almost certain test to the 52-week highs and while the S&P 500 technically cleared this level, there was no “fluff” to new highs.
A pullback following a test of the 52-week high is a normal market or stock reaction. The current market is so technical and is falling right on the support and resistance lines we have outlined that we should get a really good read on a possible breakout or breakdown. We went on record last week and said the market could move 5% in September and 10% by year-end up or down depending on the headlines.
The targets we gave were Dow 14,000 or 12,600 in September followed by 14,500-14,600 or 12,000 by year-end. The S&P could be at 1,500 or 1,350 next month which would lead to 1,550 or 1,275 by Thanksgiving/ Christmas. The Nasdaq could push 3,225-3,250 or 2,925-2,900 in September and then 3,375-3,400 or 2,800-2,775 on continued strength or weakness.
There will be a ton of speculation on what Ben Bernanke might or might not do or say this Friday and over the weekend when the central bankers get together in Jackson Hole. The zombies still seem split on if another round of quantitative easing will really work and we have said how the Fed only has one bullet left.
People seem to forget that extending “Operation Twist” and the extended bond buying before that by the Fed was actually QE3 and QE4 so any new stimulus by our count would be QE5. Nothing is working and the comments from James Bullard last Thursday, a member of the FOMC, rehashed how little impact these programs have had. Yes, the first QE worked well most would agree but the real problem is the world governments want growth but growth is slowing and consumers are cutting back.
Perhaps a “saving of the euro” and another round of QE will take the market to new highs but there are so many storm clouds ahead that it is imperative we keep our eyes on the road and our hands upon the wheel. We will continue to roll with the bulls and have a real good time but be ready for a trend change if Big Ben lets the market down and Europe kicks the can off the road and into a ditch.” (from 8/26/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bears had the weekly edge heading into Friday’s “Black Hole” as the Dow was down 158 points; the S&P 500 a dirty dozen; and the Nasdaq was off by a hand of blackjack. The support targets we gave last week held like a rock and Friday’s rebound was a direct result of Ben Bernanke promising more quantitative easing. Although it wasn’t enough to win the week, the bulls won August and could have a September to remember if Europe delivers some good news this week. (continued…)
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter. Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we are 121-36 for 2012 which is a 77% win rate for all of our trade recommendations.
Our list of winners also include+576% on GMCR,+475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our average trade recommendation usually last 3 weeks or less and we have closed some trades in as little as 24 hours. We target triple-digit returns for all of our option picks for the Daily and double-digit returns for the Weekly Wrap. We are excited about the back half of the year and a possible break out of the recent trading range.
If you are not yet a subscriber, come see why jaws are dropping for those who follow Wall Street and options trading.
Tags: AFL, AXP, blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, fslr, GMCR options, momentum, momentum options, MSFT, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in European Union (EU), Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades | Comments Off
Wednesday, August 8th, 2012
12:20pm (EST)
Shares of First Solar (FSLR, $20.91, up $0.31) cleared $20 yesterday and have traded up to $21.69 today. The stock is off its highs but the strangle trade we profiled in our Weekly Wrap on Sunday and in the Daily Tuesday morning for First Solar hit our targets this morning. The trade was up over 130% shortly after the bell which is when you should have cashed out the call options so let’s go over how it went down.
Tuesday’s morning’s DAILY update:
Here were our thoughts in Sunday night’s Weekly Wrap (8/5/12) and the
option prices from Friday’s close (8/3/12):
“This looks like a good opportunity for a straddle or strangle option trade, if there is any follow through or a pullback. Keep an eye on the September 20 calls (FSLR120922C00020000, $0.65, down $0.35) for a quick trade if shares can regain their momentum following Friday’s 5% pullback. If not, watch the September 14 puts (FSLR120922P00014000, $0.70, up $0.15) for a drop back below $15. Together, the calls and puts would form a strangle option trade to whereas First Solar would need to be above $21 or below $13 by mid-September for the trade to have success.”
The September 20 calls (FSLR120922C00020000, $1.40, up $0.75) opened at 66 cents on Monday and zoomed nearly 120% for the day. The September 14 puts (FSLR120922P00014000, $0.40, down $0.30) opened at 59 cents. The total cost of the trade would have been $1.25, or $1,250 for 10 contracts each. The value of both the call and put options are currently at $1.80, or $1,800, which is already a 44% gain in 24 hours.
The object of strangle option trades is to make over 100% or more on one side of the position to cover the cost. Once the call or put gives you a triple-digit gain, you close that side of the trade to lock-in profits.
You would then have a free call or put to play a reverse.
In this case, if you sell the First Solar calls into strength now or on a pop over $20, the puts become house money and have over a month before they expire. If shares move lower and fall below $14 the September 14 puts would then be “in-the-money” which would allow you to profit from both sides of the trade. (END)
Update!
Tuesday’s close: The September 20 calls FSLR120922C00020000, $2.45, up $0.20) closed at $2.25 yesterday. The September 14 puts closed at 25 cents. The total value of the options is $2.50. The entry price on Monday morning at the open was $1.25. The return was at a 100% at yesterday’s close and shares are up today.
The calls traded to a high of $2.88 this morning after opening at 2.67. Let’s say you were able to close them at the open for $2.70. The 10 contracts you sold would have netted you $2,700. The original cost for both the calls and puts was $1,250. This would get the return up to 136% and the September 14 puts (FSLR120922P00014000, $0.25, down $0.15) are still open.
You could also close the put options now to lock-in the return but they are at 20 cents and they are free puts to play any downside until mid-September. It is only $200 and if the put options expire worthless because shares remain above $14, the trade would still return 116%. If shares trade to $13, the puts would then be worth $1 or an extra $1,000 (10 contracts) which would get the return to 196%.
We may use these types of option trades in our next batch of recommendations as we try to offset some of the volatility. We are sorry we didn’t make this an “official” recommendation but we wanted to get everyone comfortable with strangle option trades in case we need to use this strategy going forward.
For those of you who DID take the trade, this will be our last update on the options as we have fielded numerous emails on what to do today.
As far as the market, we are still in a wait-and-see-mood. The indexes traded lower at the open but have rebounded and are pushing greener pastures.
The Dow is up 16 points to 13,184 while the S&P 500 is higher by a a point to 1,402. The Nasdaq is down a half-point to 3,016. The indexes did slip below support which was prior resistance and the close will be interesting today.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: chicken option trade, First Solar option trade, fslr, strangle option trades
Posted in Hot Stocks, strangle option trades, Strategies | Comments Off
Wednesday, June 6th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls put in another good day’s work on Tuesday and were able to sustain current support levels despite another bear rush at the open. Yesterday’s action was still choppy but Wall Street managed to turn higher once the suit-and-ties got back from lunch.
The Dow gained 26 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 12,127. The low for the day was 12,072 but the blue-chips managed a high of 12,147 and are still gunning for a close above 12,200. Tuesday’s low was higher than Monday’s test down to 12,035 but the bears haven’t given up on cracking the 12,000 level.
The S&P 500 added 7 points, or 0.6%, to close at 1,285.50. The index dipped just below the 1,275 level to 1,274.16 but was able to bounce off the lows to reach a high of 1,287.62. The 200-day MA (moving average) is at 1285.68 which shows just how close the index is to breaking out to 1,300+, or breaking down to 1,250 or worse. (Read more…)
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a unprecedented start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we are 97-20 and we doubt you will find a hotter newsletter.
Our list of winners also include +576% on GMCR, +475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few. In other words, these solid gains could have turned your $10,000 trading account into nearly $82,000 for a 720% return using our recommendations. Wow! Our auto-trading partners verify our results so if you are a busy professional and work during market hours, they can do the trading for your account!
Tags: AFL, binary options, call options, COF, fslr, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, MSFT, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, SGMS, stock market options, STX, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off
Monday, May 21st, 2012
9:00am (EST)
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area this morning. Also, for subscribers who upgraded to a 1-year membership over the weekend, please make sure you watch the video we sent this morning for our option course which covers a few more charts we draw out for you on the fly and how we come up with new trades.)
“The major indexes ended mixed on Monday with the S&P and Nasdaq showing the slightest of gains while the Dow fell 30 points. Friday was pretty much the same with the S&P switching sides. We have been talking about negative Friday and Monday closes which are bearish and although there wasn’t a crystal clear picture on this indicator, we would have to say the action favored the bears.
We are unsure on how shares will open and trade when FaceBook becomes public but it should be interesting.
If the offering is well-received by Wall Street, the market could get a bounce, if support isn’t broken by then. If the demand isn’t overwhelming, and shares struggle, look for the bears to step on the gas.”
(from 5/13/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
As you can see from last week’s chart, the market played out like a fiddle as the bears controlled the action all week despite the FaceBook (FB, $38.23, up $0.23) frenzy on Friday. We rode the bears back to one of our most successful weeks of the year as we were able to lock-in profits on 7 more triple-digit winning put option trades.
There was no bounce on Friday as FaceBook got baked into the cake as you can see from our comments in the aforementioned chart’s red box. The bulls are looking for a rebound but the bears did some serious technical damage last week. The charts and other warnings signals we have been giving you have been spot on all year long and so far we have had a HUGE May.
This week’s charts are showing a possible bounce but the overall trend is still lower. (continued…)
*********************************
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a unprecedented start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we are 87-20 and we doubt you will find a hotter newsletter.
Our list of winners also include +576% on GMCR, +475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few. In other words, these solid gains could have turned your $10,000 trading account into over $80,000 for a 710% return using our recommendations. Wow! Our auto-trading partners verify our results so if you are a busy professional and work during market hours, they can do the trading for your account!
Tags: COF, fslr, GMCR, Nasdaq
Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off
Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
10:30am (EST)
We have profits to take on our First Solar (FSLR, $18.94, up $0.54) put option trade as our Hard Stop on the other half of our May 18 puts (FSLR120519P00018000, $1.25, down $0.30) has been triggered. The trade returned 51% in just under 3 weeks and it was our 14th straight winning recommendation. This brings our 2012 Track Record to 76-18 for the year.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: First Solar, First Solar Earnings, fslr
Posted in Trade Update | Comments Off
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All Eyes on Europe
Tuesday, September 4th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“The market has another week of August before September rolls around and it is usually the most bearish month of the year according to the history books. August also has some bearishness to it but so far the market is up for the month. Last week’s charts for the major indexes and the VIX showed an almost certain test to the 52-week highs and while the S&P 500 technically cleared this level, there was no “fluff” to new highs.
A pullback following a test of the 52-week high is a normal market or stock reaction. The current market is so technical and is falling right on the support and resistance lines we have outlined that we should get a really good read on a possible breakout or breakdown. We went on record last week and said the market could move 5% in September and 10% by year-end up or down depending on the headlines.
The targets we gave were Dow 14,000 or 12,600 in September followed by 14,500-14,600 or 12,000 by year-end. The S&P could be at 1,500 or 1,350 next month which would lead to 1,550 or 1,275 by Thanksgiving/ Christmas. The Nasdaq could push 3,225-3,250 or 2,925-2,900 in September and then 3,375-3,400 or 2,800-2,775 on continued strength or weakness.
There will be a ton of speculation on what Ben Bernanke might or might not do or say this Friday and over the weekend when the central bankers get together in Jackson Hole. The zombies still seem split on if another round of quantitative easing will really work and we have said how the Fed only has one bullet left.
People seem to forget that extending “Operation Twist” and the extended bond buying before that by the Fed was actually QE3 and QE4 so any new stimulus by our count would be QE5. Nothing is working and the comments from James Bullard last Thursday, a member of the FOMC, rehashed how little impact these programs have had. Yes, the first QE worked well most would agree but the real problem is the world governments want growth but growth is slowing and consumers are cutting back.
Perhaps a “saving of the euro” and another round of QE will take the market to new highs but there are so many storm clouds ahead that it is imperative we keep our eyes on the road and our hands upon the wheel. We will continue to roll with the bulls and have a real good time but be ready for a trend change if Big Ben lets the market down and Europe kicks the can off the road and into a ditch.” (from 8/26/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bears had the weekly edge heading into Friday’s “Black Hole” as the Dow was down 158 points; the S&P 500 a dirty dozen; and the Nasdaq was off by a hand of blackjack. The support targets we gave last week held like a rock and Friday’s rebound was a direct result of Ben Bernanke promising more quantitative easing. Although it wasn’t enough to win the week, the bulls won August and could have a September to remember if Europe delivers some good news this week. (continued…)
********************************
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter. Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we are 121-36 for 2012 which is a 77% win rate for all of our trade recommendations.
Our list of winners also include+576% on GMCR,+475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our average trade recommendation usually last 3 weeks or less and we have closed some trades in as little as 24 hours. We target triple-digit returns for all of our option picks for the Daily and double-digit returns for the Weekly Wrap. We are excited about the back half of the year and a possible break out of the recent trading range.
If you are not yet a subscriber, come see why jaws are dropping for those who follow Wall Street and options trading.
Tags: AFL, AXP, blue-chip stocks, chicken option trade, chicken trade, fslr, GMCR options, momentum, momentum options, MSFT, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in European Union (EU), Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades | Comments Off