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Friday, October 2nd, 2009
10:40am (EST)
Fire away, hey-hey…
The bulls invited the bears into the ring and immediately took the bears best shot. The unemployment report came in as expected, 9.8%, but the job loss of 263,000 was way more than the 180,000 Wall Street had expected.
I told you this morning I was hearing whispers for a loss of a 250,000 and we were expecting some downside. When the report was released at 8:30am (EST) the futures sank even further. Dow futures were down about 30 and zoomed to 100 once word hit the Street.
However, the bulls took the bears’ best left hooks on the chin and are still standing. The Dow opened with a 70 point loss but has nearly clawed (no pun intended) its way back to positive territory. The Dow is only down 2 points and is currently trading at 9,506. The Nasdaq has just turned positive as is up 5 points to 2,062. The S&P is flat at 1,029.
The action isn’t what we had planned this morning and part of that could because of a weaker dollar. If the dollar would have rallied then we were looking for the commodity stocks to take a hit. They did, but the weaker dollar kept the plunge to a minimum.
I had profiled a Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $64.98, down $0.42) trade this morning in the Members Area and the put options we were looking at opened higher than our limit price. We also didn’t get the sell-off we had planned for so we did not take the trade. The stock hit a low of $63 but it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one rebound along with the market.
I also talked about opening a Research In Motion (RIMM, $66.06, down $1.10) position if the market opened HIGHER but that was never in the cards once we got the Jobs Report. However, I did say the stock is right at support which is $66-$67 so those call options may get interesting next week. We don’t need to rush out and buy them today but we will keep them on the Watch List and may look at them again next week.
Other than that, our Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $31.21, down $0.49) trade continues to gain momentum and appears safe to hold over the weekend. At current levels, it has returned 30%.
We planned for either a continued sell-off or a huge rally today and it looks as though this battle is just getting started. The thing to watch for is how we go into the closing bell today. It’s hard to say where the market ends the session because the bulls could end up stealing today’s round.
If they do, it would be bullish heading into next week’s earnings.
I wanted to get this out before the 1pm update and this is the 1pm update. With so much going on this morning I wanted to make sure everybody was following the game plan. No need to open new positions heading into the weekend and we will sit on what we got.
I will be looking at possible trades for next week the rest of the day to see if there is something there and the last hour of trading will be interesting to watch.
I’ll be back Sunday night, more likely, Monday morning with the weekly update and the playbook as we head into earnings season. Alcoa (AA, $12.80, down $0.11) kicks things off on Wednesday.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: AA, Abercrombie & Fitch, Alcoa, anf, FCX, Freeport-McMoRan, options picks, Research in Motion, RIMM
Posted in Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Thursday, September 17th, 2009
12:50pm (EST)
The market is struggling today as it has darted in and out of positive territory. Jobless claims dipped to 545,000 last week from an upwardly revised 557,000 the previous week which helped stocks recover from the open but it appears the bears are selling the news and trying to push the market back into negative territory. Currently, the Dow is down 9 points to 9,782.
Despite the choppiness, we have quite a few trades that are doing really well today.
Dendreon (DNDN, $28.75, up $1.94) has broken out to 52-week highs and the Dendreon call options have now doubled. Subscribers who took the OPTION trade on August 31st are now up 140%! I don’t watch much TV because they can influence your habits but somebody emailed me this morning and said Cramer said “Don’t Buy” this stock.
The last time that dude said “Don’t Buy, Don’t Buy, Don’t Buy” Dendreon was back in April when the stock was under $5. We were in an option trade that went on to return our subscribers 2,500%. I doubt the current trade returns as much but it is one of the reasons I don’t follow the talking heads.
Cramer has no clue on this company and he has been wrong since $5.
Apple (AAPL, $185.42, up $3.55) continues to roll and has hit a high of $186.79. If you got into the call options that I recommended yesterday, sell half today.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $71.53, down $0.61) is backing off that $72-$73 resistance area I have been talking about. The stock traded to a high of $72.95 and you should have closed half of the position yesterday when the call options hit our exit target. I still think Freeport is going to report a blowout quarter.
International Business Machines (IBM, $121.87, up $0.05) opened lower and we got some great entry prices for the option trade I profiled this morning. In fact, we couldn’t have played it any better. The call options traded as low as 55 cents shortly after the opening bell and are currently at 75 cents.
Palm (PALM, $14.25, down $0.41) reports after the bell. This is not a trade but I want to show you how people are speculating on the earnings report. The September options expire on Friday and here is the battle taking place.
The Palm September 14 puts (UPYUN, $0.78, up $0.23) have traded 16,000 contracts while the September 15 calls (UPYIC, $0.50, down $0.10) have also traded 16,000 contracts. This could be a good trade if Palm moves 15%-20% on Friday because one side would offset the other. However, I am staying away from this one, and besides, we are already in Apple and have made some great returns. Apple should continue to prosper either way…
I’ll be back in the morning with the trade updates.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Apple, Dendreon, Freeport-McMoRan, IBM, option picks, options trading strategies, Palm
Posted in Apple, Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Option Trades | Comments Off
Wednesday, September 16th, 2009
12:30pm (EST)
General Electric (GE, $16.68, up $0.68) is rolling this week. The stock opened Mondayat $14.55 and closed yesterday at $16. Today’s 4% pop is shows the stock’s momentum after passing hitting the $16 level and shares look poised to run to $17 where there is resistance. Volume is thru the roof as 113 million shares have traded thus far.
Lottery players are all over the GE September 16 calls (GEWIQ, $0.75, up $0.49) as they are up nearly 200% for the day. They opened at 40 cents. We went to Apple’s (AAPL, $182.26, up $7.10) October party instead and the option trade I profiled at 11am is up 50% folks! If you got in at 85 cents, lock down some profits as the call options are now at $1.50!
Yes,
Baidu.com (BIDU, $402.80, up $5.27) continues to set new 52-week highs. The stock has made an $80 move since the beginning of the month. Goldman Sachs (GS, $178.33, up $1.67) is the latest cheerleader after making some chippy comments on the company this week and setting a price target of $455. Baidu’s CEO has been quoted as saying he sees users leaving Yahoo Japan to come to Baidu over the next few years.
That’s it for now…Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $72.77, up $1.43) and Imax (IMAX, $10.10, up $0.28) are also putting in good days for us. I may try and do an 11pm update tonight but I’ve got a ton of research I’m doing. If not, I’ll see everyone in the morning by 9am (EST).
Tags: AAPL, Apple, Baidu.com, BIDU, FCX, Freeport-McMoRan, GE, General Electric, GS, Imax, options picks, options trading strategies
Posted in Apple, Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Option Trades | Comments Off
Tuesday, September 15th, 2009
9:00am (EST)
Futures were slightly higher before the Retail and PPI numbers came out at 8:30am. Before the reports the Dow futures had been up 4 while the S&P 500 futures were higher by 1 but jumped after the reports were released. August Retail Sales were up 2.7% compared to expectations for an increase of 1.9%. August PPI was 1.7% compared to a forecast of 0.8%.
Best Buy (BBY, $40.10, down $0.31) is trading lower after missing its quarterly number. The company reported earnings of $0.37 a share which was $0.05 lower than what Wall Street was predicting. However, the company did beat its revenue number which came in at $11 billion versus expectations of $10.79 billion.
From the Are You Serious department…Yesterday I mentioned Zoom Technologies (ZOOM, $13.20, up $0.51) at lunchtime when the stock was at $7.44, up 84% for the day. The stock closed at $12.69 and is up another 4% in pre-market trading.
Other stocks we are watching this morning: Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $71.01, up $0.39) is up while Dendreon (DNDN, $26.55, down $0.55) has actually slipped. Dendreon had been positive for much of the early trading after tacking on another 50 cents in last night’s after-hours. We still haven’t “officially” opened but subscribers should check the Members Area for the latest updates on both of these trades.
Looks like we are headed higher at the open. As a reminder, I have been fielding a lot of emails asking where the market is headed. Well, to be honest, no one really knows but here were my thoughts on August 23rd, which, after three weeks has been spot on:
“The market has had an incredible run and the key levels we are watching are as follows.
For the Dow (currently 9,505), watch for 9,625 which was the November high. A run above this level clears the way for…dare I say it….Dow 10,000. There is support at 9,000 but a break below 8,900 would send up a warning signal.
As for the Nasdaq (2020), it looks like 2,100 is smooth sailing as long as the bulls continue to run this week. Above that, we get choppy but we could get a run to 2,275. Support is at 1,930 and further down at 1,800 or so. A break below that could lead to 1,600.
The S&P 500 (1,026) could easily make a stab at 1,100 now that it has surged past 1,000 but 979 will be key support near-term. There is really nothing stopping the index from hitting 1,150-1,175 which is where headwinds will pick up.” (END)
The Dow is at 9,626, the Nasdaq at 2,091 while the S&P starts the day at 1,049. That was the road map we drew up in August. Let’s see if it holds up…
Subscribers, don’t forget to check the Membes Area.
Tags: Citigroup, Dendreon, Freeport-McMoRan, Imax, Zoom Technologies
Posted in Earnings, Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Mergers and Acquisitions, Option Trades | Comments Off
Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009
I’ve got a lot to cover about our new service but I wanted to go over the trades that I have been covering in the blog first.
Ford Motor (F, $6.41, up $0.28) had a stellar day as it added 5%. I profiled the December 6 calls (FLI, $1.64, up $0.14) and the December 7 calls (FLJ, $1.21, up $0.12) in the May 17th Weekly Wrap and again for the new trading service. This was a “free” pick and I wanted to update the position before we start the new trading service. Once we start the service you will only be able to get updates through a subscription.
The December 6 calls were profiled at $1.25 and the December 7 calls were profiled at 93 cents. At current levels that represents a gain of 30% for both positions.
These call options were trading for $1.52 and $1.10 when I updated the position Monday morning. The bigger picture is that they don’t expire for another 6 months and I think Ford has a good shot at $7-$8 over the short term.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX, $56.88, down $1.24) made another run at $60 but faded by the end of the day. I said to watch your stops today when the stock was only down 23 cents.
The June 55 calls (FCXFK, $4.05, down $0.95) traded to a high of $5.60 and they were profiled at $2.10 on May 20th. That represents a 167% return. Stops should have been set at $4.20 which was a 100% return which is why I told you to watch them.
The June 60 calls (FCXFL, $1.73, down $0.65) were profiled at 80 cents and traded to a high of $2.74. Folks, that is nearly a 250% gain! A $1.60 stop is still a 100% return but the position should have been sold once you saw these monster profits.
Freeport was looking weak and the June options are running out of time. These trades would have been closed this week regardless because the options expire in two weeks. Some people like to keep trades like these open because they are hoping to make even more money. When you get a 250% gain in 10 days, don’t push your luck. We didn’t.
These were the last of the “free” trades and you will have to follow the Ford trade in the new service. The “Monthly Passive Income Trade Picks” subscription service will launch in the next 24-48 hours. The service will include access to the exclusive “Members Only” area where I will be posting trades. This is where I will post updates on the trades or any new ones that are coming out. I will do an update as needed and the posts will be done before the market opens.
You will also have the chance to join a live training session twice a week as long as you are a subscriber.
The service will offer both non-directional picks and directional trades. Ryan will be doing the non-directional trades which are safe and aim to generate 4%-6% per month. That may not sound like much but that equates to 50+% on an annual basis.
The trades I offer will take on much more risk as you know. They are aimed for SPECULATIVE traders who can handle losses. We decided to combine both services to offer you the best of both worlds.
The rates are this.
1 month – $97
3 month – $261 or $87 per month (10% off)
6 month – $462 or $77 per month (20% off)
1 year – $804 or $67 per month (30% off)
The best part of the subscription service is this. Any money you pay can be applied to our lifetime mentoring program. This means if you ever decide to join our program, you will have lifetime access to our trade picks. For people that are currently lifetime students, you will be getting my trades for FREE.
I told you I would give you readers the best deal ever to join our mentoring service and here it is. So, if you sign up for 6 months, you will get $462 off the purchase price of the course. Once you are a lifetime student, you too, will get all of the trades we provide for FREE.
The information you will learn will be priceless. I say that because we will literally speed up your learning curve and we will do it at a fraction of the cost most other options services charge.
Another important fact. All of the trade picks from the blog have been documented and will be available for you to see. You will be able to look at the date and read about the trades in the blog. Ryan will also have his track record available. Folks, I don’t know of any other options service that makes their current and past picks available.
Here is how we will take orders initially. If you are seriously interested in the service, please send me an email with “1 month”, “3 month”, “6 month” or “1 year” in the subject line. I will then send you the subscription link. We already have a couple of trades going and most of you should have gotten an email from me with the new trade.
If you have any further questions, include them with your email.
Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com
Tags: Ford, Freeport-McMoRan
Posted in Option Trades | No Comments »
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All Eyes on Palm
Thursday, September 17th, 2009
12:50pm (EST)
The market is struggling today as it has darted in and out of positive territory. Jobless claims dipped to 545,000 last week from an upwardly revised 557,000 the previous week which helped stocks recover from the open but it appears the bears are selling the news and trying to push the market back into negative territory. Currently, the Dow is down 9 points to 9,782.
Despite the choppiness, we have quite a few trades that are doing really well today.
Dendreon (DNDN, $28.75, up $1.94) has broken out to 52-week highs and the Dendreon call options have now doubled. Subscribers who took the OPTION trade on August 31st are now up 140%! I don’t watch much TV because they can influence your habits but somebody emailed me this morning and said Cramer said “Don’t Buy” this stock.
The last time that dude said “Don’t Buy, Don’t Buy, Don’t Buy” Dendreon was back in April when the stock was under $5. We were in an option trade that went on to return our subscribers 2,500%. I doubt the current trade returns as much but it is one of the reasons I don’t follow the talking heads.
Cramer has no clue on this company and he has been wrong since $5.
Apple (AAPL, $185.42, up $3.55) continues to roll and has hit a high of $186.79. If you got into the call options that I recommended yesterday, sell half today.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $71.53, down $0.61) is backing off that $72-$73 resistance area I have been talking about. The stock traded to a high of $72.95 and you should have closed half of the position yesterday when the call options hit our exit target. I still think Freeport is going to report a blowout quarter.
International Business Machines (IBM, $121.87, up $0.05) opened lower and we got some great entry prices for the option trade I profiled this morning. In fact, we couldn’t have played it any better. The call options traded as low as 55 cents shortly after the opening bell and are currently at 75 cents.
Palm (PALM, $14.25, down $0.41) reports after the bell. This is not a trade but I want to show you how people are speculating on the earnings report. The September options expire on Friday and here is the battle taking place.
The Palm September 14 puts (UPYUN, $0.78, up $0.23) have traded 16,000 contracts while the September 15 calls (UPYIC, $0.50, down $0.10) have also traded 16,000 contracts. This could be a good trade if Palm moves 15%-20% on Friday because one side would offset the other. However, I am staying away from this one, and besides, we are already in Apple and have made some great returns. Apple should continue to prosper either way…
I’ll be back in the morning with the trade updates.
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com
Tags: Apple, Dendreon, Freeport-McMoRan, IBM, option picks, options trading strategies, Palm
Posted in Apple, Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Option Trades | Comments Off