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Posts Tagged ‘FOMC meeting’

Market Up Ahead of Fed Speak

Monday, December 9th, 2013

1:00pm (EST)

The bulls are making a slight push to higher ground following Friday’s monster gains as we head into the second half of trading but volatility could return based on what the Fed Heads say.

There are four speeches scheduled for today by the Fed Heads with one of them speaking twice for 30 minutes of fame instead of 15.  The talking heads will try to determine if the statements are dovish or hawkish and say the market is reacting accordingly.

The technical picture is telling us we could have another flat week with some major volatility and Friday’s budget deadline could produce a surprise as there is talk a bipartisan deal could be reached before the zombies head home for vacation.

At a Thanksgiving gathering, we heard chatter there would not be a government shutdown in January and our thoughts were that a budget deal would be reached after we asked why.  The simple answer is that the government’s contracts are too important to ignore this time around.

Any compromise or budget deal would be good news for the market.  We keep hoping for corporate tax reform but we will save that topic for another day.

The Dow is currently up 20 points to 16,040 while the S&P 500 is advancing 4 points to 1,809.  Remember, a close above 1,810 on the S&P would be bullish.  The Nasdaq is higher by a 6-pack to 4,069 while the Russell 2000 is DOWN 3 points to 1,128.  The VIX is at 14.03, up 0.24.

There are a few earnings trades we like for this week and we could have New Trades as early as this afternoon so stay locked-and-loaded.  We have some updates on our current trades that are showing some strength as well.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

Flat Action Ahead of the Fed

Tuesday, March 13th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The market finished mixed on Monday with the bulls and bears each splitting the indexes if we include the small-caps.  Yesterday’s action was timid to say the least as the major indexes traded in a tight range ahead of today’s FOMC Rate decision. 

Although volatility has picked up in recent weeks, we mentioned in our Weekly Wrap that the Monday’s before triple-witching in March are typically bullish with the Blue-Chips posting gains nearly 70% of the time over the past 25 years. 

True to form, the Dow added 38 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 12,959.  The blue-chips traded within a 76-point range with the high coming in at 12,976.  

The S&P added less than a point (0.22), or 0.02%, to end at 1,371.  The index traded in the red for much of the morning following an initial pop at the open but recovered in the afternoon and traded to a high of 1,373.  The low checked-in at 1,366.69.

The Nasdaq dropped 5 points, or 0.2%, to settle at 2,983.  Tech peaked at 2,994 shortly after the open but spent the rest of the day below the breakeven line.  The index kissed a low of 2,973 but stayed above 2,950 which had been prior resistance.  We would still like to see a close above 3,000 this week. 

The Russell 2000 slipped 3 points, or 0.3%, to close 814.  The index pretty much traded in-step with the Nasdaq, seeing early gains up to 819, before fading 30 minutes after the open.  The small-caps reached a low of 811 but easily held the 800 level.

Speaking of volatility, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 15.64, down 1.47) dropped nearly 9% to the mid-teens despite the flat action yesterday.  For those of you that have been with us since November, you know we have been calling for the VIX to reach these levels when the index was above 30.  At the time, the S&P 500 was testing the 1,150 area and we said the index would push 1,250-1,300 by the end of January and that the VIX would be cut in half.  Roll out the red carpet.

We have used the VIX, along with many other technical (and emotional) indicators, as a guide to when a pullback could begin.  We often hear the Wall Street pros say the VIX is an unreliable tool but it has worked magic for us.  We have covered the March blueprints and what to look for over the few weeks, starting with the Fed’s decision on rates today. 

We have outlined clear support and resistance levels so make sure you look at yesterday’s charts which are crystal clear.  Once our clues fall into place, we will either get a continued rally or one whale of a pullback and we plan to be positioned perfectly as our portfolio will be light and tight going into next week.  If the circumstances are right, we could have room for up to 10 NEW trades over the next few weeks.  Of course, we also don’t want to push the action so we will need to be patient if there aren’t any good setups.

We said we might get lucky and time a possible market pullback just right so let’s see how the rest of the week plays out along with our current trades. 

Futures are showing a strong open.  Dow futures are up 56 points 12,953.  S&P futures are higher 7 points to by 1,374 while Nasdaq futures are up a dozen points to 2,659.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.    


Bulls Betting on Bernanke

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

1:50pm (EST)

Futures were indicating a flat open this morning as the market awaits the decision of the Fed’s FOMC meeting.  The news will be out shortly after 2pm and we have some last minute updates for our current trades we need to cover before the announcement.  

Ben Bernanke is in a pinch and needs to make a policy statement that is going to please Wall Street.  Many pros are saying the Fed has run out of bullets which is why they are calling “Operation Twist” a joke.  Our view is that the real problem is overseas but there is risk of a “sell the news event”  if Big Ben drops the ball. 

In other news, Existing home for the month of August showed an increase of 7% to 5 million units versus expectations for 4.75 million units.  The real problem with housing is that credit no longer seems to be a problem it’s the availability of credit worthy borrowers that is the challenge.  Without jobs, people can’t afford the houses anyway no matter how low rates are. 

As we head to press, the Dow is down 25 points to 11,383 while the S&P is off 6 points to 1,196.  The Nasdaq is showing some strength and is trading higher by 11 points to 2,601.

Subscribers, please check the Members Area for the important updates and make sure you have HARD STOPS in place to protect our profits.

Bears Taking Back Momentum

Tuesday, September 6th, 2011

9:00am (EST)

The bulls started last week strong as they pushed the market higher by 2%, on average, after riding the Ben Bernanke train for another day following his speech from Jackson Hole.  His comments sparked renewed enthusiasm on a possible QE3 (quantitative easing) package which has fueled the recent rally.  The major indexes managed to penetrate their 10-day and 20-day Moving Averages (MA’s) on Monday but Wall Street was still nervous given the important data that would come.

Tuesday, the bulls got a bonus package when the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting confirmed the group was exploring a variety of potential QE tools.  The indexes were able to push our next set of resistance targets but finished the day only slightly higher as Wall Street was a little cautious on the beginning of the jobs reports due out over the next 3 days.

Wednesday appeared to be a breakout day after the bulls got some good numbers from the ADP Employment Change numbers which showed private payrolls increased by 91,000 during August.  This was slightly less than the 100,000 figure Wall Street had penciled-in but it wasn’t too big of a miss.  However, the market struggled once news broke that AT&T’s (T, $28.48, down $1.14) planned merger with T-Mobile USA got axed by the government.  The Dow and S&P still managed a 0.5% pop but Tech finished flat.

On Thursday, the market opened lower after hearing Initial Claims were above 400,000, again, rising 12,000 to 409,000.  The 4-week moving average rose by 1,750 to 410,250.  Continuing Claims came in at 3.735 million versus 3.753 million the week before.  The indexes responded with another quick test to prior resistance but turned on a dime after the ISM Manufacturing Index for August came in at 50.6.  Although this was down from the 50.9 that was posted for July, it was way better than the 48.5 that had been expected.  In the end though, the market fell ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report.

The bulls went into Friday still holding a gain for the week and by midday they were right at the breakeven point.  However, the selling pressure continued throughout the day after Nonfarm Payrolls came in flat while the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 9.1%.  As a result, the market ended mixed for the week. 

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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more and check our chart work for the Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq please click here.  We also have a NEW TRADE that we are trying to get into this morning so please pay close attention to our instructions.  We are expecting a busy and volatile week so look for other Trade Alerts throughout the day as we have 7 possible candidates on our Watch List.  Sign-up now and receive access instantly!

As we head to press, Dow futures are down 255 points to 10,953 while the S&P futures are lower by 31 points to 1,139.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are off by 44 points to 2,121.

PowerShares QQQ Trade Update

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

I put out a trade yesterday morning that is off to a good start. The Dow is enjoying a triple-digit gain on the heels of a historic FOMC meeting. More importantly, the Nasdaq is outperforming the Dow as it is up over 2%, or 35 points, to 1,543. The PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ, $29.85, up $0.69) look poised to break $30 if we can continue the rally and get an even stronger close.

We took a look at some December options that I said could easily experience 20%-25% swings during the trading day this week and here we are. I wanted to provide some insight to the trade and why I decided to go long. The December 29 calls (QAVLC, $1.15, up $0.22) were going for 80 cents and I was pretty bullish on the market’s direction this week. I had did my homework over the weekend and looked at the past trading patterns of “triple witching” week. I had also factored in the barrage of news that would be hitting the market and how sentiment could be turning. I normally play options on stocks but I figured there was a chance to make a quick return by playing the market straight-up.

Things got even better when as we got a break when the market opened lower on Monday morning and we were able to get into this position at 80-85 cents. My initial target was $1.20 as an exit. Well, we’re right there heading into the Fed meeting. If you close the trade right now you walk away with a 50% return in less than 24 hours. If you hold out and the market takes a dive on the Fed news, you will quickly see a loss. However, if the market continues its rally, you could make even bigger gains. You could also close half out and let the rest ride.

Welcome to the life of an option trader…

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

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    The portfolios can be found in the Members Area as well as past portfolios from 2008-2011. Overall, we are 621-273 on nearly 900 real-time recommendations that equals a success rate of 70%. This means, on average, 7-out-of-10 of our option trade recommendations make you money and we hope to have an even better success rate for 2013.

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Trader Comments:
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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