10:20pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. Is Research In Motion (RIMM) a Risk or Reward?
3. A Closer Look at Copper
4. Freeport McMoRan (FCX) Finds Range
5. Week Ahead
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1. Market Summary
The bears made it four in-a-row to close out an impressive week on Friday although the action was a little lackluster ahead of the weekend. There were a few notable earnings announcements and some mixed economic news but the headlines favored the bears.
One sector that continues to feel the pinch is Retail. There are a few standouts but many retailers are struggling and lowering their guidance going forward. The Commerce Department reported July retail sales were up 0.4% but only because consumers were pumping and paying higher gas prices. Yes, it was the first gain in three months but people are saving more and we doubt back-to-school sales are going to be as robust as some are hoping for.
J.C. Penny (JCP, $19.82, down $0.98) fell nearly 5% on Friday and set a new 52-week low after announcing earnings. Although the company turned a profit for the quarter, they offered cautious guidance going forward and shares got slammed. Nordstrom (JWN, $31.05, down $2.39) reported Thursday night after the close and pretty much said the same thing. Its shares were off 7%.
As far as the major indexes, they ended the week with losses of 3%-5%.
The Dow slipped 16 points to close at 10,303. For the week, the blue-chip index fell 350 points, or 3.3%, and had its 3-week winning streak snapped. The index will face resistance at 10,400-10,600 but will likely test 10,200 and maybe 10,000 this week.
The S&P 500 shed 4 points and closed at 1,079. The weekly loss was 42 points, or 3.8%, and the index will have trouble with the 1,100 level if there is a bounce this week. However, the S&P has broken down below its 50 and 200-day moving averages and support comes in at 1,070, but, 1,050 appears to be the next stop.
The Nasdaq matched the Dow’s decline point wise, down 16, but continues to get hit the hardest and settled at 2,173. The index dropped 115 points for the five sessions, or 5%, and is breaking down like a rented mule. There is support at 2,150 and then 2,050 with resistance at 2,200.
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2. Is Research In Motion a Risk or Reward?
Research In Motion (RIMM, $53.40, down $0.77) is the Canadian maker of the Blackberry smartphone and the encryption technology behind it. The company is projected to have revenues of nearly $19 billion for 2010, practically all of it related to the Blackberry, and is now playing catch-up in the sector.
The stock’s has a 52 week range of $47.42-$88.08 and its next quarterly update will come in mid-September. In June, RIMM reported a profit of $769 million, or $1.38 a share, versus $643 million, or $1.12, in the year earlier quarter. Wall Street had expected of $1.35 a share. Revenue came in a little light at $4.2 billion, versus estimates of $4.4 billion, but they added 4.9 million new subscribers in the quarter, a 60% year-over-year increase.
Still, Wall Street and investors didn’t care as the stock dropped $6.35 the next day, or 10%, from $58.58 to $52.23. If you take a look at a 2-year chart, you will shares have fallen from a high of $144 since June 2008. At current levels, shares are trading at less than 10x next year’s earnings so does that make them cheap?
Maybe, but the two words RIMM fears the most are Android and iPhone.
These two operating systems have been taking market share away from Blackberry in the high end of the market, relegating Blackberry to selling lower margin, low-end phones up until the recent release of its own Torch.
The Android Operating System is Google’s (GOOG, $486.35, down $5.66) and has became the number one OS for mobile phones in the second quarter, unseating the Blackberry OS after three years. Apple’s (AAPL, $249.10, down $2.69) smartphone OS is third, but first in the U.S. and Europe, the two biggest markets.
In the second quarter for 2010, the overall smartphone market grew 65%. Both Nokia and RIMM shipped only 40% more units while Apple shipped 60% more and the Android grew an astounding 900%. Worldwide overall market share breaks down currently with Nokia owning 38%, RIMM with 18%, Apple at 13%, and Android at about 17%, up from 2% a year ago. At one point, the Blackberry had a 65% overall worldwide market share in smartphones.
The reason RIMM is losing this battle comes down to applications and design. The Blackberry has always been a very utilitarian product designed by engineers and meant to handle email and not much else. As smartphones have become more main stream, consumers have demanded better ergonomic design, greater flexibility, and more applications. Blackberry has missed out on all three, particularly applications, where they are way behind thanks to the closed nature of their OS.
The company is trying to revive their franchise with the new Blackberry 9800 Torch and a possible “BlackPad” device. The Torch is a touch screen Blackberry with a slide out keyboard and the new OS.6 Blackberry operating system. Sales just started last week so we should have some data fairly soon. Early indications are that while it is a great upgrade for those who have a Blackberry, it is still not very user friendly, it lacks the “cool” factor of an iPhone, and they still have the issue of very few applications or “apps”.
Their other rumored product is a tablet device, believed to be called the BlackPad since they recently registered the domain name, and it is scheduled for release in November. Tablets have been around for years, and many companies already have them out, but it is only the iPad that has really taken off. We seriously doubt the engineers at RIMM’s headquarters can produce a device that will compete with some of the other tablets already on the market, let alone the iPad.
The most recent issue with the stock has been the headlines of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India threatening to block sales unless RIMM lets them in on their encryption. This rock solid encryption has been a selling point in the past, but these governments don’t like the fact that they can’t read their citizens emails when they use a Blackberry. RIMM has a deadline until the end of August to satisfy India’s demands, which we believe they will almost assuredly do since locking themselves out of the second largest potential market in the world would not be a good thing.
Long term, it seems to only hasten the demise of the Blackberry as the one key selling point RIMM had over other systems was their security. Corporate executives that favored the Blackberry are now jumping ship, and their employees are clamoring for an Android or iPhone as well.
The bulls will argue the stock is cheap because the company is still growing revenues in a rapidly exploding smartphone market. With 4.6 billion phones worldwide versus about 1 billion computers, the growth potential is staggering since only about 100 million phones are smartphones now.
This means there is room for multiple players in the sector and the Blackberry will still be around. With a P/E of around 10x next year’s earnings, there is an argument that RIMM’s shares are inexpensive relative to the projected growth we have mentioned. However, we think the near-term direction of the stock is down and if its 52-week low is taken out, look for shares to test the lower $40’s.
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3. A Closer Look at Copper
Copper ($3.25/lb) is one of the most widely used metals on the planet. Virtually anything that uses electricity in some way, from TV’s to cell phones to cars to houses needs copper. If you could only use two indicators to judge the health of the world’s economy, the price of copper and the Baltic Dry Freight Index would be two good choices. Put very simply, the rising price of copper means growth in the global economy since it is used in so many things, and conversely a falling price can foreshadow a slowing global economy.
Unlike with gold, there is no ETF, yet, that tracks the price of copper (for gold it is the GLD). The two stocks most levered to the price of copper are Freeport McMoRan (FCX, $70.07, down $0.32) and Southern Copper (SCCO, $29.28, down $0.31) which we mentioned in our article below. These stocks can be used to play an option strategy revolving around the price of copper based on where you think the metal is headed.
The price of copper is denominated in dollars like most commodities so its price can be influenced by the rise and fall of the dollar relative to other currencies. A weakening dollar means all commodity prices, including copper, should rise, and vice versa for a strengthening dollar.
Copper has traded in a 52 week range of $2.68/lb-$3.60/lb. Over the last month it has moved from $2.93/lb to $3.25/lb with a high of $3.38/lb for that time period occurring in early August. You can see we are off of the recent lows, but also down from a recent high. A break in either direction from here is fairly significant since we are right at a key inflection point and is definitely worth watching.
A breakdown under $3.18/lb probably indicates waning demand and would bolster the case for a double dip recession in the near future. A move to the upside to test the recent $3.38 high would seem to indicate that global demand is picking up again.
World supply right now is pretty tight, with copper inventories having declined for 5 straight months, the most since 2007. This really adds fuel to any downside move being a harbinger of slower world growth since a declining price in the face of declining inventories means a drastically declining end demand. The next few weeks should be very pivotal in telling us where the price of copper is headed and also where global growth may be headed.
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4. Freeport McMoRan Finds Range
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX, $70.07, down $.32) is a global miner with proven reserves of 104 billion pounds of copper, 37 million ounces of gold, 2.5 billion pounds of molybdenum, 270 million ounces of silver and nearly one billion pounds of cobalt. The company recently reported earnings of $1.49 a share on $3.9 billion in revenues, easily blowing away analyst estimates of $1.34 a share and $3.7 billion in revenue. The company is projected to do $17 billion dollars in revenue for 2010, and it is trading at 9.4x this year’s earnings.
Freeport is interesting company on several levels. The price and direction of copper as the metal make up 75% of its revenue. Copper is usually a leading indicator of increased economic activity, so for those who believe copper can go higher, this is one of the best ways to play the price of copper. Another is Southern Copper (SCCO, $29.28, down $.31).
Gold is another aspect of Freeport that is intriguing. We did a big write-up a few weeks ago here in the Weekly Wrap and the yellow metal is historically strong in October. Rising gold prices can lift the stock for this company at times, although we highlight several more pure gold plays in our Watch List from time to time.
M&A’s (mergers and acquisitions) are big in this sector and many believe Freeport could be in the mix in acquiring some of their smaller competitors. Kinross Gold (KGC, $15.16, down $0.29) recent purchase of Red Back Mining for $7 billion was a 20% premium over the share price and that took the value of gold deals to $32 billion this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than twice last year’s total for the industry.
The bull case for this stock is real compelling. With copper up 10% off its low for the year, and gold possibly going higher as the Fed monetizes the debt, this company is in the sweet spot. If you believe that gold can go a to $1,300/ounce and copper can go to $3.50/lb (currently at $1,214/ ounce and $3.25/ pound, respectively) then this stock could easily move back to the $80-$90 range.
The bear case rests on a double dip recession and the price of copper and gold going down.
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5. Week Ahead
Here is a look at the companies reporting earnings this week:
MONDAY – Agilent Technologies (A, $27.35, down $0.18), InterOil Corporation (IOC, $64.82, down $0.55), eLong (LONG, $13.39, down $0.08), Lowe’s Companies (LOW, $19.59, down $0.15), Perfect World (PWRD, $24.86, up $0.05) and Urban Outfitters (URBN, $30.90, down $0.71).
TUESDAY – Analog Devices (ADI, $28.07, down $0.16), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $37.66, up $0.01), CACI International (CACI, $41.45, down $1.09), Elbit Systems (ESLT, $52.1, up $0.11), G&K Services (GKSR, $21.60, down $0.44), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY, $24.18, down $0.05), TJX Companies (TJX, $40.90, down $0.84), VanceInfo Technologies Inc. (VIT, $26.40, up $0.23) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, $50.40, down $0.03).
WEDNESDAY – Applied Materials (AMAT, $11.17, up $0.01), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ, $42.90, down $0.33), Citi Trends (CTRN, $27.64, down $0.72), Deere (DE, $64.85, down $0.68), Duoyuan Global Water (DGW, $21.83, up $0.93), Eaton Vance (EV, $28.92, down $0.05), Flexsteel Industries (FLXS, $11.65, down $0.08), Gymboree (GYMB, $40.56, down $1.04), Limited Brands (LTD, $24.89, down $0.40), NetApp (NTAP, $38.14, up $0.56), Netease.com (NTES, $37.26, up $0.08), Open Text (OTEX, $38, up $0.07), PetSmart (PETM, $29.61, down $0.11), Synopsys (SNPS, $21.63, up $0.03) and Target (TGT, $50.81, down $1.00).
THURSDAY – Aeropostale (ARO, $23.11, down $0.66), Cato (CATO, $22.27, down $0.70), Salesforce.com (CRM, $97.24, up $0.29), Dell (DELL, $12.01, up $0.02), Delta Apparel (DLA, $13.06, down $0.25), Dollar Tree (DLTR, $42.32, down $0.20), Foot Locker (FL, $12.51, down $0.01), Flowers Foods (FLO, $24, up $0.12), GameStop (GME, $19.57, down $0.14), Gap (GPS, $17.67, down $0.28), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, $40.45, up $0.31), Lancaster Colony (LANC, $48.79, down $0.22), Marvell Technology Group (MRVL, $14.51, down $0.15), Nordson (NDSN, $63.91, down $0.26), Ross Stores (ROST, $49.03, down $0.59), School Specialty (SCHS, $17.1, down $0.38), ScanSource (SCSC, $25.03, down $0.40), Staples (SPLS, $19.11, down $0.21), Stage Stores (SSI, $10.11, down $0.49), Standex International (SXI, $25.32, down $1.10), Tech Data (TECD, $36.75, down $0.79), Toro (TTC, $49.08, down $0.49) and Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE, $10.57, down $0.12).
FRIDAY – AnnTaylor Stores (ANN, $15.20, down $0.66), Hibbett Sports (HIBB, $26.18, down $0.04), Hormel Foods (HRL, $42.90, up $0.21), J.M. Smucker Company (SJM, $58.15, up $0.22) and Kirkland’s (KIRK, $16.80, down $0.31).
We will be back Monday morning at 9am with a fresh update on the market and all of our current trades.
Market Slightly Higher At Halftime
Tuesday, August 31st, 2010
1:05pm (EST)
There has been a flurry of economic news this morning that has moved the market and the bears were able to push the major indexes lower at the open. However, the bulls got some “better-than-expected” news and have fought back to take a slight edge heading into second half of action.
Here were the numbers:
The Consumer Confidence index for August came in at 53.5 versus estimates for 50.5, Chicago PMI for August was 56.7 compared to expectations for 56.0 and S&P Case-Shiller for June was up 1%, month over month.
The other big event to watch for today will be the release of the FOMC minutes at 2pm (EST).
And now for the good stuff…
This morning we profiled a strangle option trade and little did we know we would be doing an update 4 hours later. We mentioned shares of Freeport-McMoRan (FCX, $72.54, up $2.18) are capable of big moves and we targeted a quick trade to show you how you can use them in volatile markets. The stock opened at $69.87 this morning and this is what the options have done:
The September 65 puts (FCX100918P00065000, $0.50, down $0.31) opened at 87 cents while the September 75 calls (FCX100918C00075000, $1.51, up $0.56) opened at 80 cents. Your total cost of the trade was $1.67 or $1,670 for 10 call options and 10 put options.
Shares of Freeport are only up 3% but as you can see, the call options are up 60% and have traded as high as $1.72. In other words, they more than doubled.
This was the PERFECT scenario as you could have quickly sold the calls at $1.60+ by setting a limit order to close the calls when they hit this price in your brokerage account or by our Trade Alerts if this had been an official trade. This would have put $1,600 back into your trading account in less than 4 hours.
Now, here is the beauty of this trade folks. You would still own the September 65 puts which are at 50 cents so you could close them right now and put another $500 into your account. This would give you a net of $2,100, or a 26% return…in 4 hours.
You could also roll the dice and play the puts for the rest of the week. You could also close half of the puts and let a little ride. They would do well if shares stalled and retreated back below $70 but we would pull a Steve Miller by taking the money and running.
We are going to start covering more of these trades in our Members Area but we aren’t going to go overboard. We may, from time-to-time, do a strangle option trade or straddle option trade because it is our job to make you money but a lot of investors have trouble understanding these trades or putting them on.
As we head to press, the Dow up 26 points to 10,035 while the S&P is up a couple of points to 1,050. The Nasdaq is down 3 points to 2,144.
There is a lot to cover in our Members Area today so let’s get on it. We will be back in the morning with another full update.
Tags: chicken trades, FCX, option picks, stock options trading, strangle option trades
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, strangle option trades | Comments Off