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Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
1:30pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so we have to keep today’s afternoon commentary short.
Futures were pointing towards a nice pop at the open which was enough to push the major indexes right up to our near-term targets. We are still waiting for confirmation of a “breakout” to our upper-end targets but today’s move has generated some nice profits for us either way.
The Dow is up 65 points to 12,457 while the S&P is higher by 10 points to 1,291. The Nasdaq is advancing 23 points and is at 2,699. Tech has kissed 2,700 after trading to a high of 2,712 so let’s see if it holds as we enter the second half of trading.
We have been super busy this morning after releasing a New Trade and closing half of another to take profits of 90%. Some of our other positions are showing strong 30%, 40% and 50% gains so we are also getting close to locking in profits for those trades as well. As we head into the back half of the week, these trades could approach triple-digit returns if the bulls can keep the rally going.
Although our foot is on the gas pedal, we still want to close a few positions into strength in case there is a curveball or pullback after the run up to resistance.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay locked-and-loaded. We may have some action to take later this afternoon.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, option tips
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
Now we know why we learned World History in high school.
After a decent start, the market is pulling back on fears of a possible US conflict with Iran. Tensions have been rising for a few weeks over Iran’s threat to shut down the Strait of Hormuz which happens to run 15 million barrels a day of oil through its waters, or one-fifth of the global production.
The country has been moved to the top of the global sanctions list due to its thirst for nuclear weapons and said shutting down the Strait would be easier than drinking a glass of H20. The US fired back (possible future pun intended) by saying no way Jose and will take action if Iran attempts to block the 4-mile width passage.
The US has been trying to, ah what’s a good word, “conform” Iran for decades and this threat of war shouldn’t be taken lightly. We aren’t worried about the outcome of who would “win” a war because it is never a good thing but the fight would be swift and Iran would suffer terribly. We are more worried about Iran’s hunger to build a nuclear weapon and the fact that oil could double to $200 if shots are fired.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to battle and cooler heads prevail but this could get ugly.
As far as the impact on the market, the bears are pushing support after the bulls ran the indexes higher at the open. However, once the US/ Iran news started making the rounds on the business channels, stocks pulled back. War doesn’t necessarily mean the market will automatically go lower and there our other countries who share our same interest in keeping the Strait open.
As we head to press, the market is near its lows. The Dow is down 133 points to 12,157 while the S&P 500 is off by 14 points to 1,250. Both indexes have slipped below their 200-day moving averages. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points to 2,595.
We have some more profits to take in case the pullback gets worse but we are looking for support to hold. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, stock market war worries, US+Iran conflict
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off
Thursday, December 8th, 2011
9:00am (EST)
The market appeared as though it would end flat for the second straight session, but a late afternoon charge by the bulls reversed most losses and left the bears with an empty feeling. We said in yesterday’s afternoon update that the futures market had penetrated resistance in overnight trading but those gains had faded by the time the opening bell sounded. Little did we know resistance would come into play before the closing bell as the final hour of trading got crazy.
A late day rumor of a possible $600 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending program created a buying frenzy, but those rumors were dispelled after an IMF official said no such action was being considered. This caught the bears off guard and although they recovered as well, with both sides positioning themselves ahead of today’s European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy statement.
The Dow added 46 points, or 1.4%, to finish at 12,196. The blue-chips tested a low of 12,060 in the morning but easily busted through our-near-term target of 12,200 late in the day before finishing just below this level. This was the third time this week the 12,000 level has held which has been solid support and we mentioned a close above 12,200 could get the Dow to 12,350-12,400 next. Same deal for today.
The S&P 500 gained nearly 3 points, or 0.2%, and closed at 1,261. The index traded down to 1,244 and below near-term support at 1,250 but was never really in danger of kissing 1,225 which is the next wave of support. We are still looking for a pop to 1,275 with a shot a 1,300-1,325 by yearend.
The Nasdaq fell for the second straight day by the slimmest of margins, down one-third of a point, or 0.01%, to end at 2,649. Tech dropped to a low of 2,612 about an hour into the session but the bulls held 2,600 while pushing a high of 2,660 into the close. We are looking for a pop past 2,675 with a run past 2,700 on good Europe news.
The real story behind yesterday’s rally though, may have been the Financial stocks which were down about 1% on the open but managed to worked their way into positive territory for a 1.2% gain by the time the bell sounded.
The next 2 days are going to be fun and this morning, futures are slightly lower as we head to press and look like this: Dow (-46); S&P 500 (-7); Nasdaq (-9).
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Financial Stocks, S&P
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, December 5th, 2011
1:00pm (EST)
Futures were pointing towards a strong open this morning on hopes France and Germany could come together and agree on a new fiscal pact that would helpstem Europe’s debt crisis. We mentioned last night that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel would be meeting today and they seem to have outlined the basic principles of another “plan” to increase budget discipline.
The proposal will be presented in detail on Friday when the European leaders meet and will involve amending or rewriting the treaties that govern the European Union. This should go smoothly, right?
There was also some “good” news out of Italy as they unveiled new spending cuts to help lower the country’s budget deficit. The austerity measures are equivalent to roughly 2% of Italy’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and will be voted on later today.
Here at home, economic news was less than stellar as U.S. non-manufacturing activity fell to 52 in November from 52.9 in October. The print above 50 was still bullish though. The other bit of news we got was also slightly negative as U.S Factory Goods declined 0.4%.
As far as the market, the good has outweighed the bad with the bulls pushing our first set of resistance levels for the week
The Dow is up 154 points to 12,173 while the S&P is higher by 22 points to 1,266. The Nasdaq is showing a 47 point pop and is at 2,674.
We’ve had some nice pin action on our current trades today so we are going to lock-in half profits on some of them. We still think the market is headed higher but just like we bought call options on weakness, we now have to sell a few of them into strength to lock-in profits. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with our next report.
Tags: Dow
Posted in Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, November 28th, 2011
9:00 (EST)
The market continued its recent slide as the bears had their best bull feast in nearly 80 years as Wall Street fell 5% last week. The recent selling pressure became much more serious as all of the indexes fell below their 50-day moving averages (MA) with the bears stretching their winning streak to seven-straight sessions.
The headline news read like a Vegas betting parlor as a number of European countries face further risks of defaulting. Germany was the latest country which showed a chink in the armor after trying to raise $6 billion euro but was only able to raise a little over half of it. Spain also went to the well and was successful in its bond auction but the yields came at a hefty price. Italy faces a huge crisis in 2012 if they can’t raise more dough, and they are trying, but it’s costing them an arm-and-leg.
The news here at home continues to come in better-than-expected and this week will be big with a number of month-end reports due out. As far as the charts, they have been stretched which often happens when headline news trumps the technical picture. The bears have clearly had the advantage and at some point there will be a rebound but until Europe can figure out its mess, the market will be held hostage.
The Dow slipped 26 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 11,232 on Friday’s shortened session. We went into the week looking for 11,600 to hold but that level was taken out on Monday. Our next downside targets were 11,400 and then 11,200, which held, but there is risk down to 10,800 this week if current levels don’t hold. If the bulls can get past 11,400 (black line, purple circles) then they could make a run back towards 11,600 and then 12,000 but the news has got to be awfully good. For the week, the Dow dropped 564 points, or 4.8%, and is now down 346 points, or 3% YTD…
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Futures are pointing towards a strong start for today’s session and look like this: Dow (+255), S&P 500 (+34), Nasdaq 100 (+53). We recommended 4 new trades on Friday and after two weeks of being patient and building new positions, hopefully we get the surge we have been expecting. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Momentum stocks, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Apple, BioTech, China, Commodities, Company Commentary, Covered Calls, Earnings, Economic News, Entertainment Stocks, European Union (EU), Financial Stocks, Futures, Gold, Google, Hot Stocks, IPOs, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Mergers and Acquisitions, Money Management, Oil, Option Trades, Rick's Account, Sectors, Stock Earnings, strangle option trades, Trade Update, Trading Psychology, Trading Tips, Uncategorized, VIX, Watch Lists, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
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Bulls Pushing July 2011 Highs
Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
1:30pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so we have to keep today’s afternoon commentary short.
Futures were pointing towards a nice pop at the open which was enough to push the major indexes right up to our near-term targets. We are still waiting for confirmation of a “breakout” to our upper-end targets but today’s move has generated some nice profits for us either way.
The Dow is up 65 points to 12,457 while the S&P is higher by 10 points to 1,291. The Nasdaq is advancing 23 points and is at 2,699. Tech has kissed 2,700 after trading to a high of 2,712 so let’s see if it holds as we enter the second half of trading.
We have been super busy this morning after releasing a New Trade and closing half of another to take profits of 90%. Some of our other positions are showing strong 30%, 40% and 50% gains so we are also getting close to locking in profits for those trades as well. As we head into the back half of the week, these trades could approach triple-digit returns if the bulls can keep the rally going.
Although our foot is on the gas pedal, we still want to close a few positions into strength in case there is a curveball or pullback after the run up to resistance.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay locked-and-loaded. We may have some action to take later this afternoon.
Tags: Dow, Nasdaq, option tips
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off