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April Option Expiration Day Normally Bullish

Friday, April 20th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bears took another step closer to getting back to even for the week following Thursday’s big win.

We mentioned the sun was shining over the bulls at the crack of dawn but things quickly reversed course after worse-than-expected economic news hit the Street.  We know the talking heads get paid to pump up the market but they seemed stunned when they heard yesterday’s jobless claims numbers.  There were a number of colorful commentators saying the numbers “just aren’t strong enough”.  Duh.    

The Dow fell 68 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 12,964.  The blue-chips fell through the 13,000 level shortly after the open and were down 136 points at one point to 12,896.  The index rebounded into the close to avoid a triple-digit loss but will need to close above 13,000 to keep the momentum going into next week.   

The S&P dipped 8 points, or 0.6%, to end at 1,376.  The index traded up to 1,390 in the AM but dipped below 1,375 during our midday update.  The low came in at 1,370 and a close below the two aforementioned levels ahead of the weekend would be bearish.

The Nasdaq got punished for 24 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 3,007.  Tech traded to a high of 3,058 but gave way to the 3,000 level shortly after our briefing.  The next wave of support comes in at 2,975 but a break below this level gets 2,850 back in play.  Tech will continue to lead the market higher or lower but it doesn’t seem to have the strength to take us to new highs with Tech heavyweights coming in with mixed results. 

Over the past 15 years, the blue-chips have finished in positive territory 12 times on April Expiration Day.  This means there is an 80% chance of the market finishing higher today but it is only one piece of the puzzle.

The Dow could rebound following Microsoft’s (MSFT, $31.03, down $0.13) earnings which came in above estimates after the close last night.  The company reported a profit of 2 pennies ahead of estimates (60 cents a share versus expectations for 58 cents) and revenue also beat ($17.4 billion vs. $17.2 billion). 

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today and futures are showing a strong positive open as we head into the last trading day of the week.  Dow futures are up 69 points to 12,971 while the S&P futures are higher by 6 points to 1,378.  Nasdaq 100 futures are gaining 10 points to 2,363.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

Bulls Rebounding as Choppy Trading Continues

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

12:55pm (EST)

The bulls are working on recovering Wednesday’s losses and got off to a great start this morning.  Once again, better-than-expected economic news played a role in the pop at the open but a couple reports came in worse-than-anticipated which cut the gains in half. 

The good news is the jobs market continues to “improve” as Initial Claims fell to 351,000 versus expectations for 355,000.  Continuing Claims came in at 3.4 million which was just below a forecast for 3.41million.  Personal Income for January was up 0.3% versus expectations for an increase of 0.5%.  Personal Spending was up 0.2% which was slightly below the expected increase of 0.4%.

Elsewhere, Construction Spending fell 0.1% in January which was a surprise as the suit-and-ties were looking for an increase of 1.0%.  The one that hurt the bulls was the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in at 52.4, which was below Wall Street’s forecast for a print of 54.5.  Still, anything over 50 is a positive so things weren’t all that bad.

Bernanke is speaking today but he hasn’t spooked the market like he did yesterday. 

The push higher is a good sign and some of it can be attributed to fund managers putting money to work.  Yesterday’s pullback scared a lot of pros out of the market as many of them took their 15 minutes of fame and said the market pulls back. 

We have seen dozens and dozens of these knuckleheads come on the tube across the various business channels since January and all of them have been wrong.  Sure, at some point we will get a pullback but nobody can time it perfect.  We are on the other side of the fence and have our fingers crossed for one last blow-off the roof type rally as the market’s gains for the year have come slow-and-steady. 

One sweet 2% pop higher would be beautiful before St. Patty’s day but we are taking profits as they come as we position for the market’s next move.

We have more good news for another one of our current call option trades which is up over 90% in just 2 weeks.  We are going to take some profits in this trade as well today and we have a NEW TRADE we are releasing right now so let’s go see if we can get filled!  

As we head to press, the Dow is up 49 points to 13,001 while the S&P 500 is advancing 9 points to 1,375.  The Nasdaq is higher by 24 points to 2,991.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.         

Bulls Await Next Catalyst

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bulls held court for much of Tuesday’s session but an early morning dip and late day pullback kept the advance in check as the bears try to hold down resistance.  After 4 years of waiting though, the party was subdued as investors seemed hesitant on just how good (or bad) the Greece bailout really is.

The Dow finally triggered 13,000 but it took nearly two hours into the session before the blue-chips finally hit our fluff target we said would happen once 12,800 was cleared back in January.  The index advanced 16 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 12,965 after kissing a high of 13,004.  It was the first time since May 2008 the Dow had traded 13K.  The low came in at 12,926.

The S&P 500 added a point to close at 1,362 after trading up to 1,368.  The index is still just inches away from our 1,375 fluff target which needs to be cleared for a continued rally into March.  The low for the day was 1,358 and the bulls will need to hold 1,350 on any bear attack this week.

The Nasdaq got off to a decent start and hit fresh 52-week highs by Wall Street’s lunch break but struggled into the close.  Tech peaked at 2,965 and is less than 1% away from hitting our 3,000 target we gave back in November but gave back 3 points to settle at 2,948.  The low was 2,934 as the bears are trying to get the action back below 2,900.

There has been a lot of talk of rising oil prices which also weighed on the market yesterday as the suit-and-ties have gone on record and predicted $5 a gallon gas this summer.  We will be shocked if this happens because it really would dampen any economic recovery but if it does we only have our government to blame. 

The media can spin higher oil prices any way it wants but it all comes down to dependence.  America has so many incredible ideas to switch to natural gas and there is enough supply to last us 100 years but for some reason these projects take years to get going thanks to the red tape.  We have covered some of these companies in our Weekly Wrap and we still love Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE, $17.23, up $0.18) which is at 52-week highs.

We recommended the stock at $11.23 back in November and suggested selling a January 14 call option for 45 cents which lowered our cost basis to $11.02.  Shares were at $14.03 on January 20, 2012 which means they were “called away’ at $14.  The traded netted our subscribers 27% but we were rooting for a close below $14 that day so that we could have held onto the stock.  At current prices we would have stretched that gain to over 50% by now.

We were hoping for a pullback to reestablish a position but shares have continued to move higher after touching a low of $13.77 that following Monday after we were called out at $14 on the previous Friday.  That is how close we where. 

Given the momentum, it is possible shares could reach $25 by summertime.  We cover more on the options for Clean Energy Fuels as we show you a way to make a 670% return if we are right.  That’s right, a nearly 700% return on a 40% move in a stock.  This is the power of options, folks.

As we head to press, futures are pointing towards a slightly lower open.  Dow futures are down 8 points to 12,937 while the S&P 500 futures are lower by 2 points to 1,359.  Nasdaq 100 futures are off 2 points to 2,588.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.    

 

Bulls Push Fluff Targets

Friday, February 17th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bears tested near-term support on Wednesday but the bulls came right back on Thursday to push near-term resistance and then some following a 1+% pop across the board for the major indexes.

We mentioned yesterday’s slew of good economic reports and Greece was an afterthought for a session.  Moody’s (MCO, $38.45, up $0.21) tried to ruin the bulls party before it even started after saying they might downgrade their ratings on the Big Banks by 2 or 3 notches, including JP Morgan Chase (JPM, $38.00, up $0.60), Morgan Stanley (MS, $19.19, up $0.23) and Bank of America (BAC, $8.09, up $0.31).  

Once again, Moody’s was right on cue, huh?

The Dow advanced 123 points, or 1%, to finish at 12,904.  The blue-chips fell just short of their 52-week high of 12,924 set last week after trading to 12,914 intraday.   The index is now less than triple-digits from our Dow 13,000 fluff target.  Double-top or breakout?

From our November 13th, 2011 Weekly Wrap:

“The blue-chips traded to a high of 12,179 before reclaiming the 12,000 level and its 200-day moving average.  We mentioned all week the 11,800 (blue line, black circles) level would be crucial in holding with 11,600 providing backup.  After testing and holding this area on Wednesday, we told you to stay long and strong.  We didn’t think the Dow would clear 12,200 (orange line, green circles) on Friday given the resistance but if it is taken out on the close this week, look for a test up to 12,600-12,800 (black line, purple circles) over the next month or so.” (END) 

The S&P added 15 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 1,358.  We have been talking about the importance of a close above 1,350 which has been our near-term target since November and said 1,375 would come into play if the index could close above this level for a few days.  We got that on Friday and Monday and convincingly yesterday.

From our November 13th, 2011 Weekly Wrap:

“We said coming into the week there could be a test down to 1,225 and on Wednesday the low was 1,226.  The trend would change on a break below the 1,200 (green line, black circles) level but we expect a run past 1,275 (blue line, orange circles) and a hold of the 200-day MA this week.  If cleared and the bulls can hold, then the momentum could carry the S&P up to 1,300-1,350 (purple line, black circles).” (END) 

The Nasdaq soared 44 points, or 1.5%, to end at 2,959.  Tech traded up to 2,961 and is a little over 1% from reaching our fluff target of 3,000.  The bulls have done a tremendous job over the last 3 weeks holding 2,800-2,850 once we cleared this level and the 15-year chart we showed you back in January has been money.

From our November 13th, 2011 Weekly Wrap:

“Tech traded down to 2,601 on Thursday but was able to hold the 2,600 level (green line, orange circles).  There is further risk down to 2,550 if this level is back tested but the bulls will try to push 2,700-2,750 (purple line, black circles) again this week.  The one stock that needs to participate in the Nasdaq’s rally to 2,900 (blue line, brown circle) will be Apple (AAPL, $384.62, down $0.60) but that’s another story.” (END) 

We gave our fluff targets in December which we covered the other day and our longer-term view of the market for 2012 a couple of weeks ago.  And yes, Apple was at $385 before Thanksgiving.   

We keep reminders of what we say all the time on our office whiteboard which is filled with trading notes and cool colors to remind ourselves of our trading plan.  Sometimes we can be wrong but we told you in September if the market could break out of its 2-month trading range, the run to the top could be jaw-dropping.   

The bulls have the lead for the week as the Dow is up 103 points while the S&P 500 is showing a gain of 15 points.  The Nasdaq is higher by 56 points.  

Futures are up as we head to press.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the hot updates.

Economic News Lifts Market Higher

Thursday, February 16th, 2012

12:30pm (EST)

The bulls are back on track following yesterday’s pullback on better-than-expected economic news which has pushed the major indexes back towards near-term resistance.  Jobless claims continue to tick lower as Initial Claims came in at 348,000 versus expectations for a print of 365,000.  Continuing Claims were 3.42 million versus estimates for 3.49 million.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for January didn’t live up to the hype after posting a 0.1% pop versus forecasts for an increase of 0.4%.  However, the core PPI reading, which backs out food and energy, was up 0.4% versus calls for an increase of 0.2%.

Housing numbers were also impressive as Housing Starts were well above forecasts for 675,000 as they came in at 699,000.  Building Permits were below par and came in at 676,000 versus expectations for an increase to 680,000.  And finally, the Philly Fed index rose to 10.5 from 7.3 in January.

As a result the bulls have held their opening gains as they look to extend the rally in the second half of trading and into the close.

The Dow is currently higher by 107 points to 12,888 while the S&P is up 11 points to 1,354.  The Nasdaq is showing a 26 point pop and is at 2,941.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

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2012 Closed Trades:
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Results are NOT compounded.

Request our detailed Track Records which are updated in our Members Area. As soon as you sign-up for a subsciption, you will have access to all open and closed trades for 2011 and past years.

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
    of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

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