|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Wednesday, September 12th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls evened the score on Tuesday as they were able to hold on for the win following a strong start. The indexes came off their highs as nervousness set in ahead of this morning’s key vote in Germany and the impending Fed news on QE3 but hit key milestones in the process.
The Dow jumped 69 points, or 0.5%, to end at 13,323. The blue-chips finally made a fresh 52-week and nearly 5-year high after kissing 13,354, up 100 points. The Dow cleared our 13,350 target once in the morning and again in the afternoon which opened the door for a pop to 13,500-13,600. Support is at 13,200 and then 13,000.
The S&P 500 gained 4 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 1,433. The index kissed 1,437.76 intraday but fell short of Monday’s 52-week peak of 1,438.74 despite pushing green all day. We have called for a run to 1,450 with the possibility of hitting 1,500 this month but a close below 1,400 would be bearish.
The Nasdaq edged high by a half-point, or 0.02%, to close at 3,104. Tech was in danger of ending in the red and below 3,100 but turned positive again late in the day to finish above support. The low for the day was 3,099 which occurred about 30 minutes before the closing bell. We still believe the bulls can trip 3,250 but a close below 3,100 and then 3,050 would signal the end of the recent uptrend.
The Russell 2000 added nearly 3 points to finish at 841.91 and is a six-pack away from a new 52-week party. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 16.41, up 0.13) traded down to 15.46 before ending slightly higher.
Futures are showing a strong open after Germany’s Constitutional Court approved the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) which was a big relief for the bulls: Dow (+46); S&P 500 (+5); Nasdaq (+15).
Tags: Dow Futures, ESM, European Stability Mechanism
Posted in European Union (EU), Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Monday, July 16th, 2012
12:50pm (EST)
The market has traded in negative territory for much of today’s session although the bulls are trying to extend Friday’s gains. The S&P and Nasdaq have sniffed positive territory but the blue-chips are still having trouble with the 12,800 level.
Economic news before the bell was mixed as Retail Sales dropped 0.5% compared to estimates for an increase of 0.2%. Backing out auto sales and gas, retail sales slipped 0.2% versus a forecast for an increase of 0.2%. The Empire Manufacturing report came in at 7 and change which was higher than the suit-and-ties predication of 4. This was still not an impressive number and futures hardly budged.
The bulls did get some good rumor news flowing as they try to pump up a possible QE3 announcement by saying the Fed will do or say something positive tomorrow. We have mentioned the lack of options Ben Bernanke has but water-cooler talk is that the Fed may do something with MBA’s (mortgage-backed securities). The latest June FOMC minutes hinted that the zombies were looking for more ways to stimulate the economy but these attempts are looking more and more like Europe’s failed efforts.
The fight to kick two cans down the road by Europe and the U.S. will eventually catch-up with the market but the bulls continue to cling and climb a wall of worry. We mentioned this week’s big events and we aren’t expecting much to change in the second half of trading as Wall Street gets ready for a flood of high profile earnings starting on Tuesday.
We were up late last night doing a video for our trading course members so for those of you who upgraded to 1-year memberships over the weekend, you should have received it early this morning. So far, everything we talked about, including the trading range, is playing out.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 60 points to 12,717 while the S&P 500 is off by 5 points to 1,351. The Nasdaq is lower by 14 points to 2,894. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay on the alert in case we close or open any new trades.
Tags: Beb Bernanke, Dow Futures, Empire Manufacturing report, FOMC Minutes
Posted in Earnings, Economic News | Comments Off
Friday, July 13th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market followed a similar pattern that has played out all week as the major indexes tested news lows before a late afternoon bounce made the losses more respectful.
The bears continued with their recent win streak as the Dow and S&P fell for a sixth straight day. The Nasdaq has fallen five-straight sessions.
Thursday’s pullback was fast and furious at the open despite some good jobless claims numbers but the bulls were able to close the gap by the time the final bell sounded.
The Dow declined 31 points, or 0.25%, to finish at 12,573. The blue-chips traded to a low of 12,492 before rebounding to close just under 12,600 which was all we really wanted to see. The index did make a late afternoon charge into positive territory and reached a high of 12,630 before closing below support.
The S&P 500 gave back 7 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 1,334.76. We wanted to see a close below 1,335 after the index reached a low of 1,325 and we got it. The next level of support is at 1,300 once 1,325 is taken out on the close while resistance remains 1,350.
The Nasdaq fell 22 points, or 0.75%, to end at 2,866. Tech traded down to 2,837 and we would have liked to have seen a finish below 2,850. Once we close below this level the selling pressure will pick up and any bounce should be contained up to 2,900.
Futures are showing a slightly higher open and its Friday the 13th so anything can happen: Dow (+37); S&P 500 (+3); Nasdaq 100 (+8).
Tags: Dow Futures, option trading newsletter, S&P futures
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, April 9th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The other curve ball will be Friday. The Unemployment Rate is due out and an uptick could cause panic as investors feel the recovery could be stalling. If the number is flat or moves lower, it will help the bulls case for higher prices. The problem is the market will be closed on Friday so we will have to wait until the following Monday to see how Wall Street reacts. Followed by the start of earnings on Tuesday.
We are expecting a continued rally this week with Thursday being the wildcard. (4/1/12 Weekly Wrap, Monday Morning Outlook)…
The bulls got off to a solid start on Monday as they made another run towards our near-term fluff targets for the market (Dow 13,500; S&P 1,425-1,450; and Nasdaq 3,250). Much of the momentum came from the prior week’s strong finish as the Dow traded up to 13,300 and closed at 13,264. The S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh 52-week highs of 1,422 and 3,123, respectively.
There was a little follow through by Tech on Tuesday morning as the Nasdaq reached 3,128 but the other indexes were lagging heading into the FOMC meeting minutes. Wall Street seemed a little hesitant to buy stocks ahead of the news despite Ben Bernanke’s comments on the possibility of further stimulus help during the prior week which sparked a rally to new highs. Needless to say, the bulls were shocked when the minutes came out later in the day after hearing the Fed say it was “less inclined” to do another round of quantitative easing (QE). This caused a pullback as all of the major indexes finished the session lower but still holding support.
Overseas markets took their cue from the U.S. and finished sharply lower on Wednesday which can be blamed for some of the continued weakness here at home. This and the fact that Spain is now back in the picture after an uneventful bond auction earlier that morning. Spain is a lot bigger than Greece so their debt crisis does matter and it showed. The market fell 1% for the day with the Nasdaq falling 1.5%.
Futures were pointing towards a weak open on Thursday following the release of the Jobless Claims numbers which were better than the prior week but only because of revisions. Initial claims came in at 357,000, which was down 6,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 363,000 claims. The 4-week average fell over 4,000 to just below 362,000 but analysts were expecting a print of 355,000. The figures are still at 4-year lows but Wall Street took it as a sign that initial claims could be on the up from February’s lows. This made traders a little nervous ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate numbers which lead to a mixed session.
Although the market was closed for Good Friday, we still went to the office and we still went through our usual pre-market morning rituals as we eagerly awaited the numbers. Futures were slightly up heading into the reports but turned on a dime once they came out. Make no mistake about it, they were absolutely atrocious.
Nonfarm payrolls for March dropped to 120,000 versus expectations for 205,000. It was the lowest jobs showing since October’s reading of 112,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.2%, down from 8.3%, but only because another 165,000 people threw in the towel on finding a job.
The news sent futures spiraling which were open until 9:15am (EST). The Dow futures were down nearly 150 points to 12,830 while the S&P 500 futures fell 20 points to 1370. The Nasdaq 100 got crushed for 30 points and stood at 2,720 going into the weekend.
We did some chart work Thursday night that we will get to in a moment which clearly shows the break in the uptrend lines for the major indexes even before Friday’s headlines.
We had a good feeling the market was going to be disappointed and we took the rest of the day off on Friday to celebrate because we have been preparing for a pullback. We have been opening quite a few put option trades over the last week or two to take advantage of a possible pullback, including one on Thursday, and if things hold up, our subscribers will be loving the open today despite a possible 1%+ decline.
*******************************
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a great start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit and double-digit returns for our newsletters which are 60-13 (82%) over the first 3 months of 2012.
Our list of winners include 475% on AXP, 292% on a COF call option, 131% and 114% on 2 MGM trades, 200% on SGMS, 107% on AFL, 100% on STX, 82% on TSM and 125% on MSFT just to name a few. In other words, these solid gains could have turned a $10,000 trading account into $32,000 for a 220% return using our recommendations.
Tags: Dow Futures, Nasdaq futures, nonfarm payrolls., S&P futures, stock market commentary, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, March 9th, 2012
8:45am (EST)
The bulls reclaimed support on Thursday after the bears took out key levels on Tuesday as the major averages finished right on our targets we were looking for. Yesterday’s 1% pop still wasn’t enough to get back to even for the week but it was enough to bring the bulls within striking distance.
The Dow added 71 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 12,908. The blue-chips hit a high of 12,937 just before the final hour of trading but gave back some of the possible triple-digit gain into the close. We called for a close above 12,900 and if the bulls can just hold this level today then it will be a huge victory that won’t go in the win column.
The S&P jumped 13 points, or 1%, to end at 1,365.91 (exact). We said a close above 1,365 would be bullish and a trip above 1,375 would be beautiful going into next week. The bulls will need to maintain current levels and at least get a close above 1,350 if there is a pullback.
The Nasdaq surged 35 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,970. Tech made a strong close above 2,950 and we got a bonus package when the index tagged an intraday high of 2,976. This opened the door for another run at 3,000.
The Russell 2000 scored a 10-point win and finished above the 800 level, at 806, or 1.3% higher.
Futures were slightly higher heading into the jobs numbers and improved once the good news hit. Dow futures are up 20 points to 12,864 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 3 points to 1,363. Nasdaq 100 futures are showing a 4 point pop and are at 2,636. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow Futures, S&P futures
Posted in Economic News, Market Commentary | Comments Off
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Germany Approves ESM
Wednesday, September 12th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls evened the score on Tuesday as they were able to hold on for the win following a strong start. The indexes came off their highs as nervousness set in ahead of this morning’s key vote in Germany and the impending Fed news on QE3 but hit key milestones in the process.
The Dow jumped 69 points, or 0.5%, to end at 13,323. The blue-chips finally made a fresh 52-week and nearly 5-year high after kissing 13,354, up 100 points. The Dow cleared our 13,350 target once in the morning and again in the afternoon which opened the door for a pop to 13,500-13,600. Support is at 13,200 and then 13,000.
The S&P 500 gained 4 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 1,433. The index kissed 1,437.76 intraday but fell short of Monday’s 52-week peak of 1,438.74 despite pushing green all day. We have called for a run to 1,450 with the possibility of hitting 1,500 this month but a close below 1,400 would be bearish.
The Nasdaq edged high by a half-point, or 0.02%, to close at 3,104. Tech was in danger of ending in the red and below 3,100 but turned positive again late in the day to finish above support. The low for the day was 3,099 which occurred about 30 minutes before the closing bell. We still believe the bulls can trip 3,250 but a close below 3,100 and then 3,050 would signal the end of the recent uptrend.
The Russell 2000 added nearly 3 points to finish at 841.91 and is a six-pack away from a new 52-week party. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 16.41, up 0.13) traded down to 15.46 before ending slightly higher.
Futures are showing a strong open after Germany’s Constitutional Court approved the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) which was a big relief for the bulls: Dow (+46); S&P 500 (+5); Nasdaq (+15).
Tags: Dow Futures, ESM, European Stability Mechanism
Posted in European Union (EU), Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off