The trading pattern has followed much of Wednesday’s action as the indexes have danced in a tight range ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, the blue-chips have traded to new all-times highs along with the S&P 500 before turning lower.
Analysts are expecting a gain of 205,000 jobs for March versus 175,000 in February. We mentioned there are whisper numbers as high as 300,000 but we said a not too hot and not too cold number of 225,000 would be perfect for the market.
We talked about yesterday’s ADP employment report this morning and how we felt it was bullish although there was a slight miss. In January, expectations were about the same as the suit-and-ties were looking for an increase of 200,000 jobs added. The ADP numbers came in much higher at 238,000 before much of the nasty winter weather hit.
March was pretty much a non-weather issue. If the market gets a number below 200,000 on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the bears could take advantage of a huge disappointment.
The news will also come on a Friday and ahead of the weekend. There should be plenty of clues going into the closing bell tomorrow to figure out how next week might go. We have already started our homework as we also prepare for the start of 1Q earnings season next week.
As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is down 20 points to 16,552 while the S&P 500 is lower by a point to 1,889. The Nasdaq is declining 14 points to 4,261 and the Russell 2000 is off 8 points to 1,884. The VIX is up 0.12 to 13.21.
We have a New Trade we are getting into this afternoon on a stock that is on the verge of a breakout. We also believe the company is a takeover target. These two combinations could lead to a powerful move that would easily make us a 100% return on the call options if shares surge past $13. They are currently at $12.65 and our near-term target has been calling for a run to $14-$15. If these targets are triggered, the options could return upwards of 200%-300%!
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the New Trade and current updates. We also have a Profit Alert and we could have additional Trade Alerts ahead of the close so stay locked-and-loaded.