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Posts Tagged ‘Casino stocks’

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) on Deck/ Profit Alert (ARUN)!!!

Tuesday, March 11th, 2014

1:15pm (EST)

With 4Q earnings season winding down, we mentioned the number of possible option trades would be dwindling as Wall Street prepares for a new season and 1Q earnings in April.

There were, however, a number of put and call option trades we have targeted but not all of them meet our criteria to make the risk worth the reward.

One trade we are eager to see play out is a possible long, short, or strangle option trade on Caesars Entertainment (CZR, $25.85, up $0.31).

The company will confess to their numbers after today’s close and we are expecting at least a 10% move, possibly 15%-20%.  This means there could be an option trade that benefits us no matter which way shares move.

The suit-and-ties are expecting a loss of $1.17-$1.73 a share.  This is a very wide range and will factor in the move as a number better than a loss of $1.17 might be bullish, providing revenues come in better-than-expected.

Analysts seem to agree the company will report revenues north of $2 billion so anything below this would be bearish.

Caesars’ has a great brand name but the knuckleheads running the company have been running in the red for the past 4 quarters with heavy losses.  They losses have been way GREATER than analysts expectations and is apparent of a company with a heavy debt load.

This could be the quarter the company throws in the kitchen sink and we are not sure how shares will react.  If Caesars’ starts to shed assets to pay down debt then maybe a turnaround is in play but this takes several quarters if not years to do and we doubt current management can get the job done.

The company become public just 2 years ago and traded in a range of $9 to nearly $18 on its first day of trading before closing at $15.  The IPO was overpriced then and we believe shares are over-priced now.

As a pure play on a test to $23-$22.50, we could use the March 22.50 puts (CZR140322P00022500, $0.30, down $0.05) to play a 10% pullback.  Of course, with the options expiring next week, we would consider it a lottery trade as shares would need to trade down to $22.20, technically, for us to break even.  With some premium built-in these options will double on a drop below $22.

The flip side of the trade, if we were bullish, would have us looking at the March 30 calls (CZR140322C00030000, $0.10, up $0.05) but shares would need to move 16% and kiss $30.10 for the trade to break even.

The aforementioned call and put options could also be used as a strangle option trade and the premiums together would be 40 cents, or $40 to buy both contracts.  Ten contracts of each would cost $400 and shares would need to trade under $22 or above $30.40 to start making profits.

We like the odds of a downside play more than the other two trades but we will likely sit on the sidelines either way.  The casino stocks have been hot this year so there is a chance for upside risk despite what kind of numbers or outlook Caesars Entertainment gives.

We have said we will be in perfect shape to play the market’s next major move or trend so we don’t have to trade just to trade.  We are having a tremendous first quarter with our option trading as we have been pinpoint accurate in calling the market’s run to new all-time highs.

There is still room for 1%-2% more fluff to the upside but our chart work showed all of the indexes at or near their upper price channels.  A possible breakout could occur and we have listed upside targets to watch to confirm the rally.  Until then, we have mentioned the action could get choppy and sloppy with risk to the downside so continue to be patient.

As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is down 49 points to 16,369 while the S&P 500 is declining a 6-pack to 1,871.  The Nasdaq is lower by 10 points to 4,324 and the Russell 2000 is slipping a 6-pack as well and was last seen at 1,194.  A close below 1,200 would suggest further weakness ahead.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current updates.

 

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Surges in IPO Debut

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

12:55pm (EST)

The bulls got off to a good start today for the first time this week following better-than-expected earnings for the most part from Walt Disney (DIS, $41.38, up $0.40) which we were a part of, and higher same-store sales at McDonald’s (MCD, $100.04, down $0.87) but the two blue-chips were unable to keep the Dow in positive territory.  Greece has a little to do with today’s pullback but we are not going to mention them today because we are tired of talking about it.

The Dow is down 20 points to 12,857 while the S&P 500 is lower by a point to 1,346.  The Nasdaq is flat at 2,903.      

One stock getting a lot of attention today is Caesars Entertainment (CZR, $16.58, up $7.58) which is up a whopping 85% following its initial public offering (IPO) of 1.8 million shares at $9 a share.  Due to the small float, and other concerns, the stock is gapping higher as theoretically, someone could go out and try to acquire all of the shares. 

The options will take a week or two to list on Caesars but we have already been playing some of the Casino stocks along with the options.  In fact, we closed out 2 triple digit winning trades in January for MGM Resorts (MGM, $14.12, up $0.16) of 131% and 114%, respectively, by playing call options.   

The options for Caesars when they do list will likely be volatile and expensive so there may be a play down the road when they come out.  Meanwhile, we will continue trading the sector until their little cousin joins us.

We have more good news as we are closing our Walt Disney (DIS, $41.38, up $0.40) call option trade which has made our subscribers nearly 80% in 5 days.  Ka-ching!

We also have an earnings trade on deck and we are expecting a homerun when they report after the bell.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the AM with the latest and greatest. 

Bulls Need A Strong Finish

Friday, March 26th, 2010

12:50pm (EST)   

The market is back on track after European leaders agreed to a bailout program for Greece.   Help will come from a joint European Union and International Monetary Fund aid program that will help Greece and other European nations facing rising debt. 

We also got a decent consumer sentiment report after the open which showed consumers are still spending and growing more comfortable about the economy.  The March University of Michigan Confidence reading came in better-than-expected, at 73.6 versus estimates for a reading of 73.0. 

We said this morning we would like to see the bulls stay steady throughout the day and then see them buying into the close.  So far, so good.

As we write this, the Dow is up 48 points, or 0.4%, to 10,889 and has reached a high of 10,909.  We would love to see a close above 10,900 but we still think the Dow breaks 11,000 over the next few weeks, if not today.  If the bulls are buying in the final hour then we could have that blow-off the roof type rally…which we haven’t seen yet.

The S&P 500 is higher by 6 points, or 0.5%, and is at 1,171.  The index reached a high of 1,174 and we would like to see a close above this level.  Our target of 1,175 has been reached and hit several times which has cleared the way for a run to 1,200.

The Nasdaq is showing a gain of 8 points, or 0.3%, to 2,405 and has traded as high as 2,412.  Our next target is 2,500 for the index.

The Casino stocks have been on fire of late and are having another good day as the sector is up more than 4% for the session.  We have made some great calls on these stocks in the past and they are one of our favorite groups to trade.  We were looking at Las Vegas Sands ($LVS, $22.01, up $1.08) when it broke $20 last week as this was resistance back in January when we profiled a trade that nabbed our subscribers 30%.  It still looks interesting and maybe we will revist the story this weekend in our Weekly Wrap.

Other stocks in the sector are also getting a pop.  Boyd Gaming (BYD, $10.27, up $0.58) and MGM Mirage (MGM, $12.71, up $0.74) are up 6%; Wynn Resorts (WYNN, $77.58, up $3.17) is higher by 4%.

We will be back Sunday evening with the Weekly Wrap.

Good News Galore

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

1:10pm (EST)

Our trades are hotter than a James Bond Girl…

Folks, the market is slightly lower today but we have got our subscribers into some good trades.  The Dow is currently down 34 points to 10,549 as the bulls seem a little tired after yesterday’s huge rally.

The S&P 500 is up a half point and is trading at 1,133 while the Nasdaq is lower by 3 points to 2,305.  Although the market is lower we think the rally continues for at least another week.

Imax (IMAX, $14.02, up $0.72) has hit another 52-week high today and we have updated our current option position.  We also have another scorcher with our Las Vegas Sands (LVS, $17.99, up $1.37) trade which is up nearly 50% from this morning.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates…

More Bad News For Casino Stocks

Monday, November 10th, 2008

There seems to be no good news in site for the casino stocks. On October 23, I had mentioned that the sector has been battered and bruised and it’s unbelievable how low some of these stocks have gotten. We used the weakness to play a two-week rally and made some tremendous profits along the way.

Before the opening bell this past Monday, I had said to place stops on all of the casino plays as they had enjoyed a nice rally. Here is what I said before the opening bell: “If you are in any of these positions, scale back on the November calls by closing 50%-75% of your contracts and at least half of your January positions. The ride has been fun but you have to protect your profits and start preparing for the next trades.”

We used the current November call options and some January 2010 call options to play the rebound. The November calls are no good to us anymore because they expire in a couple of weeks.

The previous January 2010 call options I had mentioned are looking attractive again but we are going to have to be selective with a few of them.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS, $7.03, down $0.82) rallied from $8.57 on 10/23 to a high of $16.81 this past Monday. The November 10 calls (LJJKB, $1.00, down $0.40) went from 50 cents to $5 over the same time period and now look at them. The January 2010 10 calls (LNUAB, $3.50, down $0.50) were going for $2.20 and hit a high of $8.50 before falling back down with the stock. If you’ll notice, the 2010 calls are still higher than where they were originally profiled and that is due to the jacked-up volatility in the stock.

I had mentioned the huge short position in the stock and although there was a “short-squeeze” it looks as though the bears are targeting the stock once again. On Friday, the company said is seeking funding to help with some of its loans and that it has “substantial doubt” about its ability to survive. That smells like bankruptcy but doesn’t necessarily mean bankruptcy although those words in quotations would scare even the bravest souls.

Las Vegas Sands has some sweet properties (The Venetian, The Palazzo, The Sands Macao and The Venetian Macao in China) and it’s possible that their lenders will work with them. However, the near-term outlook is bleak for the company. The stock had been rebounding lately on hopes that a recovery was in the works, especially after the company’s CEO invested nearly $500 million of his own money.

Because of the near-term outlook, we may have to wait on the sidelines to see how this one plays out. However, one little nugget that I found that was interesting was the fact that the company still plans to move forward with the Singapore Marina Bay project. That statement leads me to believe that the company has an Ace up its sleeve.

If Las Vegas Sands can make it through this quarter, then we will see. I have a good feeling that someway, somehow LVS will come up with the cash it needs to continue its operations. The stock had a 52-week high of $123 and was above $150 before that and a low of $4.32. These are the risks and there was heavy buying in the near-term put options for Las Vegas Sands. The November 5 puts (LJJWA, $1.15, up $0.25) traded over 8,000 contracts on Friday. There may be an opportunity to make some money on the downside with LVS, but again, let’s see how this one shakes out. I’d rather go long when things improve instead of getting hit by a short-squeeze in case the company comes out an announces a new financing package. Keep the January 2010 calls on your Watch List.

As you can imagine, other casino stocks fell in sympathy with LVS. MGM Mirage (MGM, $12.32, down $0.99) hit a high of $17.28 on November 3 and held above $15 before tumbling by the end of the week. However, MGM has gone “all-in” as it has agreed to provide up to $1.5 billion to complete its joint venture CityCenter project if outside financing cannot be secured. The company priced $750 million of senior secured notes, which will help reduce liquidity worries but they are taking a huge gamble. I like them more than LVS. The November 10 calls (MGMKB, $2.75, down $1.05) went from $2 to nearly $7 and now they are back at $2. Forget about them now. The January 2010 10 calls (YDMAX, $5.75, down $2.25) soared from $4 to $10 and are back under $6. Let’s see if this one can come back to us and we will set “alerts” at $4.50. If the calls can get back down to this level we can keep lowering our entry price in hopes of finding a bottom.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN, $46.04, up $0.34) may be the “best-of-breed” out of all of the casino stocks and perhaps the most volatile. The stock went from $28 on October 28 and hit a high of $63 three days later. The November 40 calls (UWYKH, $7.30, down $0.60) were trading for $2.35 and hit a high of $19! The January 2010 40 calls (YPWAH, $15.70, down $0.10) could have been purchased for $10.20 and hit $23. Let’s target $10 again as an attractive entry point or we may go further out.

The rest of the group are also in survival mode but they don’t look as enticing as MGM and Wynn. Boyd Gaming (BYD, $5.21, down $0.15), Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK, $6.25, up $0.47) and Trump Entertainment (TRMP, $0.58, down $0.05) may have some value in them if they can survive and out of this group, I like Pinnancle the best. The company owns the high-end Lumiere in downtown St. Louis, Mizzo which should see a pick-up in traffic after voters repealed a loss limit law that prevented gamblers from losing no more than $500 in two hours.

We banked tremendous gains on some of these stocks and now that they are falling out-of-flavor with Wall Street again there is a chance they might test their 52-week lows. More bad news could be on the way Monday as well. October’s casino revenue numbers for Atlantic City come out and they are expected to be pretty nasty. September revenues were down 15%, the greatest monthly decline in the 30-year history of legalized gambling. A smoking ban hasn’t helped matters either but that could expire in a week or so.

As you can see, there are some land-mines planted in our field of dreams but the sector won’t stay down forever. Gambling is not going to go away and the stronger casinos will survive and thrive if they manage the current slump correctly. Keep an eye on the aforementioned January 2010 calls I have listed and the new target prices.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

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    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

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    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

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    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

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    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
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    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

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    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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