|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Monday, February 6th, 2012
12:40pm (EST)
The market is trading slightly lower to start the week after another failed weekend of talks between Greece and the European Union. The head officials want Greece to sign-off on new austerity measures and several of the politicians are against the new rules as you can imagine. They still want to kick the can down the road for another couple of years but they can’t bite the hand that feeds them.
Greece has been a drag on the indexes for months but the market continues to move higher which shows that it may not be a big deal if they do default. Sure, there will be a knee-jerk reaction if there is, and Greece is suppose to submit its final proposal today or tomorrow with a EU vote on Thursday. Stay tuned.
In merger Monday news, O’Charley’s (CHUX, $9.80, up $2.88) is up over 40% despite reporting quarterly earnings well below Wall Street estimates. The company posted a loss of 38 cents a share on revenue of $182 million. The suit-and-ties had expected a loss of 22 cents a share on sales of $181 million. The good news for shareholders is that O’Charley’s also said it would be acquired by Fidelity National Financial (FNF, $18.23, down $0.20) which has a history of doing small deals like this.
We mentioned last night in our Weekly Wrap that economic news would be light for today and tomorrow so earnings and Greece will be the catalysts that move us higher or lower.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 43 points to 12,819 while the S&P is off by 4 points to 1,341. The Nasdaq is lower by 9 points to 2,896. The market may be lower but it feels as though it wants to go higher today.
We do have some good news with our current trades as most of them are in the green and are extending last week’s powerful gains. Yes, it is a stock picker’s market which we have proven for the last few months but the talking heads are now just realizing it.
We have locked-in profits on a few current winners and our Dendreon (DNDN, $16.18, up $2.01) call option trade is surging today as the stock is up 14% on no news.
We also have a NEW TRADE and profits to take on 2 other call positions as one of them is up nearly 60% since Friday while the other is up over 50% in just one week!
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with the latest & greatest.
Tags: call options, CHUX, dndn
Posted in Earnings, Hot Stocks, Mergers and Acquisitions, Trade Update | Comments Off
Friday, February 3rd, 2012
11:25am (EST)
We have more profits to take and this time it’s on a 200% winner! Our Scientific Games (SGMS, $12.78, up $0.48) February call options from just 2 weeks ago continue to perform well but let’s lock in HALF profits to protect our massive gains.
We will leave the other half of the trade open to play further upside potential and we also have the July calls that are still open. Shares are in blue-sky territory and we have been telling you the Casino stocks have been hot!
We also have a NEW TRADE we are releasing right now so let’s get on it. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates!
Tags: call options, SGMS
Posted in Option Trades, Trade Update | Comments Off
Friday, February 3rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market finished flat on Thursday ahead of this morning’s unemployment numbers with Tech showing strength while the blue-chips slipped.
The Dow fell 11 points to 12,705 while the S&P added a point to end at 1,325. The Nasdaq added 11 points to finish at 2,859 after kissing a high of 2,868.
Before we get into this morning’s action, we wanted to give you an update on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $40.40, down $6.43) which dropped 14% yesterday. We have been watching this stock for over a decade so we know how it trades and we could fell this big breakdown coming which may not be done. This is one of the beauties of trading options because sometimes you can just feel a trade is going to be good and we have targeted a drop below $40 for 2 weeks.
Shares were downgraded on Monday but shares drifted higher throughout the week and we knew we were getting the perfect setup. In fact, as we have been closing trades this week, we had Abercrombie put options at the TOP of our Watch List. The company was expected to announce earnings next week and we have been telling our subscribers that they could report a terrible quarter.
It wasn’t too hard to figure out when some of our research revealed the company has been slashing prices for months and has been losing market share. Plus, with the warm weather, this pick was a no brainer.
Here were our thoughts with stock and option quotes from the Wednesday’s close:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $46.83, up $0.89)
February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $0.65, down $0.25)
May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $1.10, down $0.30)
Thoughts: We could be getting close for a nice entry point. The company will announce earnings on February 13 and we think it will be a terrible quarter. In fact, they could pre-warn Wall Street and we may open a position by Friday on ANF with one of these options.
There is a chance for a pop to $50 but a move below $42.50 will be our trigger point. However, we may enter early on a drop below $45. (END)
Needless to say, the put options had a monster day. The February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $2.25, up $1.60) were up a whopping 240% and the May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $2.30, up $1.20) easily gained over 100%.
Abercrombie pre-announced results Thursday and said profits were up 16% for the quarter but U.S. sales were up just 4% due to heavy markdowns. Looking ahead, the retailer said it expects profits of $1.10-$1.15 a share for the current 3 months versus the suit-and-ties expectations for $1.54.
Although we missed another golden opportunity yesterday from a trade on our Watch List, Abercrombie could be headed below $30 so we may get another opportunity to short this name. We will be doing some more chart work over the weekend and we will let you know on Monday how things are looking.
The good news is we do have 2 current 100% winners on the books with half-profits already taken in one of them.
As far as this morning’s action, it looks like a green open and our headline says it all.
Dow futures are up 101 points to 12,767 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 12 points to 1,334. The Nasdaq futures are showing a 24 point pop and are at 2,515.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and once again, stay on the lookout for Trade Alerts this morning.
Tags: anf, ANF earnings miss, call options, unemployment rate
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, February 1st, 2012
12:30pm (EST)
It is always nice to make 100% on an option trade, especially in 2 weeks, but sometimes the market moves just enough to knock you out of a position that you really feel good about. It is also possible to play a continued run on a stock so it is important to keep it on your Watch List in case shares break to new highs.
We recently did some research work for our Weekly Wrap on Seagate Technology (STX, $25.53, up $4.39) which is soaring today after beating Wall Street’s expectations. The homework led us to a great opportunity as we saw shares were on a roll and the momentum was building. On January 6, 2012 we recommended the February 19 calls (STX120218C00019000, $6.50, up $4.20) at 70 cents and we were out at $1.20 and $1.60 a few weeks later which gave us an average selling price of $1.40, or a double from our entry price.
Here is the chart work we did for the stock:
We took our eye off the prize because our portfolio is pretty full and we missed today’s move although some of our subscribers who use our Watch List are happy campers. Shares had stalled at $20 but here are the trades we have kept on our Watch List since last week and our thoughts this morning (quotes are from yesterday’s close):
Seagate Technology (STX, $21.14, up $0.25)
February 21 calls (STX120218C00021000, $1.05. up $0.05)
March 21 calls (STX120317C00021000, $1.35, up $0.05)
Thoughts: For those of you in this trade, you are going to get paid today after the company came in with above the bar numbers.
We said a pop to $22 would come if $20 is cleared but shares could reach $25 on a blue-sky breakout. (END)
Well, the (STX120218C00021000, $4.50. up $3.45) are up over 300% today and the March 21 calls (STX120317C00021000, $4.65, up $3.30) are up nearly 250%. Obviously, if you are in these trades, lock up profits.
Of course, we can’t take credit for the trades because we didn’t officially release them again but we can take credit for the 100% return in January for the one we did. However, we do feel bad for not following through on our research but we are doing cartwheels for the subscribers who do use the Watch List.
We did close five 100+% winners in January and we are close to bagging a big one. Trust us.
You never know, some of our current trades could take the same path as Seagate Technology.
The bulls are pushing resistance after good news out of China. We are also hearing rumors that Greece is “hours” away from cutting a deal with its private bond holders. We have heard this “wolf” cry before but hopefully the European leaders can get a deal done here soon which will bullish for the market.
Currently, the Dow is up 137 points to 12,770 while the S&P 500 is higher by 15 points to 1,327. The Nasdaq is showing a pop of 33 points to 2,847.
We have some nice pin action on a few trades so let’s go check the tape. Subscribers, hit the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: call options, Seagate technologies, STX, STX earnings
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, January 31st, 2012
12:45pm (EST)
The bulls were making a push towards resistance on renewed optimism that a deal with Greek bondholders and euro zone officials could be reached but got stymied by worse-than-expected economic news. The headlines were “negative” due to the misses but the numbers were still pretty good for the most part despite what the talking heads are saying.
The Case/Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 3.7% in November while the Chicago Purchasing Managers report showed a reading of 60.2 versus expectations for a reading of 63. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence came in at 61.1 versus a forecast for print of 68. These are solid numbers but the market isn’t seeing that way, yet.
As a result, the bears saw a little daylight to push support one last time. While there remains a ton of headline risk this week, we still need to be cautious of a pullback although we are hoping the bulls make one last push towards the 52-week highs.
We can afford to be a little aggressive due to our incredible month but we are taking smaller positions in case the bears crack a couple layers of support.
The Financial stocks have turned positive which is a good sign as the Financial Select Spiders (XLF, $14.15, up $0.05) are trying to hold support and make another push at resistance which is up ahead at $14.50.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 56 points to 12,597 while the S&P is off by 3 points to 1,309. The Nasdaq is lower by 7 points to 2,805.
We are adding 1 more NEW TRADE today so we have to roll.
Subscribers, please check the Members Area for the updates. Also, today is the last day to take advantage of our special offer to get the Daily and Weekly publications for one low price. We are also including our options trading manual, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, at no charge. This package comes with bi-monthly videos that show you how to read charts and find trades.
We have set up a special tab on our subscription page where you will see both the Daily and the Weekly in a package deal that reads Annual Subscription to Daily and Weekly Wrap. You will not need a coupon for this deal and the savings are over 65%. The tab will be removed on Wednesday.
https://secure.momentumoptionstrading.com/amember/signup.php
Do the paperwork and we will send out our option trading course to you as soon as we get your order and provide you access to our videos right away.
We will be back in the morning with our next update.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Economic News, Financial Stocks, Market Analysis | Comments Off
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.3%
Friday, February 3rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market finished flat on Thursday ahead of this morning’s unemployment numbers with Tech showing strength while the blue-chips slipped.
The Dow fell 11 points to 12,705 while the S&P added a point to end at 1,325. The Nasdaq added 11 points to finish at 2,859 after kissing a high of 2,868.
Before we get into this morning’s action, we wanted to give you an update on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $40.40, down $6.43) which dropped 14% yesterday. We have been watching this stock for over a decade so we know how it trades and we could fell this big breakdown coming which may not be done. This is one of the beauties of trading options because sometimes you can just feel a trade is going to be good and we have targeted a drop below $40 for 2 weeks.
Shares were downgraded on Monday but shares drifted higher throughout the week and we knew we were getting the perfect setup. In fact, as we have been closing trades this week, we had Abercrombie put options at the TOP of our Watch List. The company was expected to announce earnings next week and we have been telling our subscribers that they could report a terrible quarter.
It wasn’t too hard to figure out when some of our research revealed the company has been slashing prices for months and has been losing market share. Plus, with the warm weather, this pick was a no brainer.
Here were our thoughts with stock and option quotes from the Wednesday’s close:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $46.83, up $0.89)
February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $0.65, down $0.25)
May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $1.10, down $0.30)
Thoughts: We could be getting close for a nice entry point. The company will announce earnings on February 13 and we think it will be a terrible quarter. In fact, they could pre-warn Wall Street and we may open a position by Friday on ANF with one of these options.
There is a chance for a pop to $50 but a move below $42.50 will be our trigger point. However, we may enter early on a drop below $45. (END)
Needless to say, the put options had a monster day. The February 42 puts (ANF120218P00042000, $2.25, up $1.60) were up a whopping 240% and the May 37 puts (ANF120519P00037000, $2.30, up $1.20) easily gained over 100%.
Abercrombie pre-announced results Thursday and said profits were up 16% for the quarter but U.S. sales were up just 4% due to heavy markdowns. Looking ahead, the retailer said it expects profits of $1.10-$1.15 a share for the current 3 months versus the suit-and-ties expectations for $1.54.
Although we missed another golden opportunity yesterday from a trade on our Watch List, Abercrombie could be headed below $30 so we may get another opportunity to short this name. We will be doing some more chart work over the weekend and we will let you know on Monday how things are looking.
The good news is we do have 2 current 100% winners on the books with half-profits already taken in one of them.
As far as this morning’s action, it looks like a green open and our headline says it all.
Dow futures are up 101 points to 12,767 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 12 points to 1,334. The Nasdaq futures are showing a 24 point pop and are at 2,515.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and once again, stay on the lookout for Trade Alerts this morning.
Tags: anf, ANF earnings miss, call options, unemployment rate
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off