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Bulls Eye April Highs, Bears Banking on Greece

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

9:00am (EST)

Well, Europe didn’t flare up and 4Q earnings came in halfway decent for some, not so good for others.  These were the 2 catalysts that we said would move the market higher or lower last week and the results favored the bulls who were able to push another layer of resistance.

It was a shortened week for the market but the indexes moved higher on Tuesday following good news out of China but gave back half the gains after the Financial sector ended mixed.  Citigroup (C, $29.64, up $0.31) and Wells Fargo (WFC, $30.54, up $0.39) missed and beat Wall Street’s estimates after announcing earnings to start the week.

There was follow through on Wednesday as the major averages ended the session with 1% pops, on average.  eBay (EBAY, $31.93, up $0.42) posted better-than-expected results on the strength of their PayPal business which is going gang-busters globally.  

We were expecting a flat to down Thursday as we weren’t sure what kind of numbers the jobs market would post before the bell and a number of Tech’s heavy-hitters were reporting earnings after the close.  Thankfully, Initial Claims fell to their lowest level (351,000) in 4 years which put the bulls in a good mood and took some of the pressure off of Tech – which ended up leading the way higher.  Bank of America (BAC, $7.07, up $0.11) gave the Financial stocks a lift after beating expectations.   

Friday’s action was all about “old” Tech versus “new” Tech as Google (GOOG, $585.99, down $53.58), Intel (INTC, $26.38, up $0.75), International Business Machines (IBM, $188.52, up $0.08) and Microsoft (MSFT, $29.71, up $1.59) weighed-in with their numbers, which were good for the most part.  The ugly duckling was Google which dropped 8% after missing Wall Street’s estimates.  Intel, IBM and Microsoft accounted for 78 blue-chip points.  

As a result, the Dow gained 96 points, or 0.8%, to end at 12,720.  The blue-chips dipped to a low of 12,620 at the open but held new short-term support at 12,600 which was prior resistance.  We could not have called this much better as we said a break above 12,600 would lead to a test up to 12,750-12,800…(read more)

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S&P Trips 1,300

Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

12:50pm (EST)

The market continues its push higher as the major indexes are enjoying a 1% pop across the board.  “Good news” out of China has offset some of Europe’s drama which was hit with more downgrades this morning.  The Financial stocks are mixed after Citigroup (C, $28.72, down $2.02) and Wells Fargo (WFC, $30.17, up $0.56) missed and beat Wall Street’s estimates.

Elsewhere, Carnival Corp (CCL, $29.50, down $4.78) is down 14% after the weekend wreckage that left many people dead and missing.  The tragedy happened off the coast of Italy and there are reports the Captain veered off the ship’s navigation system and could face homicide charges.  This is not good news and it’s an unfortunate event that could impact a normally brisk season for the cruise ships.

This is a heavy week for 4Q earnings which kick into second gear.  We covered a list of stocks to watch this week in our video last night but we probably won’t be playing an earnings trade.  We did recommend a New Trade this morning but the company doesn’t announce results until March and we feel shares are at a tradable bottom.

Our portfolio is showing strong gains for 2012 in the first two weeks of January and we don’t see the need to take on the added risk.  We do, however, think earnings will move the market this week, especially on Thursday when a bevy of big-name companies will be stepping up to the podium.

We have 3 current trades that are up triple-digits and quite a few others that are up over 50% so let’s go see where we are at.

As we head to press, the Dow is up 103 points to 12,525 while the S&P is higher by 9 points to 1,298 after kissing 1,303.  The Nasdaq is showing a 26 point pop and is at 2,736.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.         

Citigroup (C) Reverses Course

Monday, May 9th, 2011

12:20pm (EST)

The market has gotten off to a slow start as both the bulls and bears feel each other out before mapping their next move.  Futures were pointing towards a higher open but were weakening as we headed towards the opening bell.  There is some rhetoric out of Europe concerning Greece as S&P downgraded their debt (again) amid concerns the country will need more bailout funds which has kept traders in check.

The Dow had traded in a tight range, hitting a high of 12,669 at the open while the low has been 12,620.  However, things are picking up as we head to press as the index is currently up 61 points to 12,700.  The S&P is up 7 points to 1,346.  The Nasdaq is showing a gain of 18 points to 2,845.

Citigroup (C, $44.02, down $1.18) completed it 1-for-10 reverse stock split this morning which is why you shares in the $40’s and not at $4+.  We aren’t big fans of reverse splits which are usually done by companies that are about to lose their listing on an exchange or to get investors’ confidence up.  When a company does a reverse stock split they are trying to maintain compliance but Citigroup is a little different because they really didn’t have to do the split.

Citigroup’s new share price will make it easier to short and for mutual fund managers to buy.  Most funds restrict managers from buying stocks under $5 so this won’t be a problem at today’s prices.  Speaking of reverse stock splits…

American International Group (AIG, $29.57, down $1.13) is at new 52-week lows today.  Imagine that.  We covered the company’s reverse stock split a few years ago which helped them keep their listing on the NYSE.  AIG’s shareholders approved a one-for-20 reverse stock split in 2009 and we did well shorting this name all the way down to $1 before the split.  In fact, some of our BEST option trades have been shorting AIG if you look at our Track Record over the years.

We have a lot to cover inside our Members Area including a trade adjustment.  On two of the three trades we able to get filled at our recommended prices but we are going to have to raise our entry price for our other recommendation.  Subscribers, check for the updates.

Market Flat heading Into Close

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

3:45pm (EST)

The market has traded in a tight range today with neither the bulls nor bears making any major moves.  Volume is light and there hasn’t been any major headline news.  Financial stocks have held steady but have traded on the south side for much of the day.  

On that note, it was interesting to see Citigroup (C, $4.42, down $0.01) doing a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.  The company also plans to reinstate a quarterly dividend of a whopping penny on its common shares in the second quarter one the split is complete.

When a company does a reverse split, they normally don’t turn out to well, meaning, the fundamentals haven’t changed. If the fundamentals or outlook hasn’t changed, then what makes the stock attractive?

Citigroup’s case is a little different than most companies that do reverses.  Usually companies face “delisting” from an exchange if their stock falls below $1 (see AIG which did a 1-for-20 a few years ago) and their last course of action is usually a reverse.  Citigroup is now profitable again and most companies facing delisting aren’t.

The reverse stock split will be effective after the close of trading on Friday, May 6, and will trade on a split adjusted basis on Monday, May 9.  Shares have been in a range of $3.50-$5 for over a year so we like the move by Citigroup. 

One stock we are watching after the bell is Adobe Systems (ADBE, $33.00, up $0.66) which could be ready to break out of a range.  The company reports after the bell and there is a chance they could miss estimates although most analysts are counting on Adobe to at least meet or beat estimates.





We will be back in the morning with the Adobe earnings story.

Bulls Break Resistance, Citigroup (C) Pops

Tuesday, December 7th, 2010

12:45pm (EST)

The bulls are beating up the bears today but there is love in D.C. as Democrats and Republicans have extended the Bush-era tax cuts which have helped lift the market to new annual highs.  The Bush tax cuts have been extended to everyone for two years, payroll taxes have been cut for one year from 6.4% to 4.2%, AND unemployment benefits have been extended for 13 months.  The news still has to be signed off on but will cost us $900 billion.  Imagine that.

The news has been a relief and we said in our Weekly Wrap it would be the next catalyst that the bulls would be banking on to push the market through resistance.  Bingo.

The Dow has broken above our first target of 11,400 and is currently up 45 points to 10,408.  There is slight resistance in the 11,450 area but we are expecting a run up to 11,600-11,700. 

The S&P was trapped in our 1,220-1,225 range for a few days and is showing an advance of 7 points to 1,230.  This was the number we outlined this morning and we would like to see a close above it for confirmation of a run to 1,250.

The Nasdaq is higher by 16 points to 2,611.  The index traded to a high of 2,623 and we are watching for a run to 2,661.  If cleared, we will easily see 2,700 with a shot at 3,000 down the road for Tech.

As far as stocks, it’s official.

The U.S. Treasury has sold its remaining stake in Citigroup (C, $4.58, up $0.13) which gets the bank one step closer to freedom.  The sale netted $10.5 billion for taxpayers as shares were sold at $4.35.  The Boys on the Hill still own $800 million of preferred shares and warrants but this is a nice overhead cloud that is clearing for Citigroup.

Elsewhere, 3M Company (MMM, $84.47, down $2.41) is down 3% after updating Wall Street on its forecast for 2011.  The company said it expects to earn $5.90-$6.10 a share in 2011, while analysts were looking for a profit of $6.24 a share.  3M also reiterated its 2010 outlook for earnings of $5.59- $5.63 a share and said it will continue look for acquisitions to grow the businesses.

As we head into the close, we would like to see Dow 11,400 hold, while a close above 1,230 would be nice for the S&P 500. We would like to see the Nasdaq close above 2,600, naturally, but we are hoping for 2,625.

That’s all we have for the outside today.  Inside our Members Area is where all the action is.  Subscribers, check for the updates!

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
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    SCOTT H.
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    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

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    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

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    NOEL
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    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
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    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

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