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Bears Taking Control

Thursday, April 19th, 2012

2:00pm (EST)

Futures can cause some sleepless nights which is one reason we don’t trade them because we would never get any sleep.  When you are long call options and futures are showing a higher market before you hit the rack then you can sleep tight.  However, when futures are soaring and you are short the market, or own put options, you might find yourself grabbing a midnight snack while checking on your computer.

We also like to say after-hours trading and futures don’t really count until the market opens.  What really matters is the homework you do and keeping your emotions in check.

We had a feeling economic news would disappoint today and we also felt Spain’s bond auction wouldn’t be as smooth as Wall Street was predicting.  And, after a slightly positive start, all three major indexes are firmly in the red as we head into the second half of trading. 

Initial Claims came in at 386,000 versus expectations for a print of 370,000.  Continuing Claims were 3.29 million versus expectations for 3.3 million.  The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing number disappointed at 8.5 which was well below the suit-and-ties guesstimates for a reading of 12.  And finally, Existing Home Sales were also a drag as March sales came in at 4.48 million versus calls for 4.62 million units.

Earnings came in better-than-expected across the board this morning as a number of companies beat expectations but many are still missing on revenue numbers.  The talking heads and Wall Street pros are saying companies are “beating” estimates but to us when you miss on 1 out of 2 estimates, you “missed” estimates.  It’s kind of like the half empty/ half full argument.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 65 points to 12,966 while the S&P 500 is off by 7 points t o 1,378.  The Nasdaq is lower by 15 points to 3,016.

We may have action to take on a few trades later this afternoon.  The 4 trades we released on Tuesday are all doing well and they were meant to be “quick” hits, meaning we plan on being in and out as we wait for confirmation of a continued breakdown.  Until it happens, it’s best to take profits while you can to continue building up your trading account.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest updates!

Late Day Rally Pushes October Resistance

Wednesday, November 9th, 2011

8:45am (EST)

Europe’s head honcho’s are falling faster than dominoes as Greece’s Prime Minster dropped first followed by Italy’s – once their austerity budgets pass.  Unfortunately, the US will have to wait until 2012 to get some new knuckleheads in office but hopefully they are business people who can create jobs.  In any event, we mentioned yesterday in our midday update the action has been hot in the afternoon and the bulls plowed ahead right on cue.

The Dow rolled higher by 102 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 12,170.  The index reached a peak of 12,187 and we said to watch for a run to 12,200 first, followed by 12,350.

The S&P jumped 15 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 1,275-and change.  The high was 1,277 and we penciled-in 1,300 Sunday night/ Monday morning in our Weekly Wrap.

The Nasdaq popped 32 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,727.  We said a run to 2,750 was possible this week and we are halfway there – with the bears living on a prayer.

The push to the next layer of resistance was nice but futures are pointing towards a nasty open this morning which means we will test support again.  We had 2 new trades we were looking to get into this morning but let’s see how the action plays out. 

Also, be on the lookout for possible Trade Alerts if we close any current recommendations or need to make any adjustments.  For those of you who are trading course members, we did a video late last night that is 25 minutes long so we wanted to send today’s morning issue out a little early so you have plenty of time to prepare for today’s action.

As we head to press, here’s the deal:  Dow futures (-223); S&P 500 futures (-30); Nasdaq 100 futures (-45).   

Market Slightly Up as Bulls Take Breather

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

2:10pm (EST)

The action today has been mixed as the bulls took the early lead to push the market higher while the bears are playing catch-up.  Wall Street seemed a little uneasy this morning as traders waited on a key vote in Italy’s parliament which ousted its Prime Minister.  Silvio Berlusconi, who has a history of shady doings and dealings and he isn’t seen in the brightest light, failed to win an absolute majority which was really no big surprise – although he did win ratification of the budget.

The big concern for Italy will be who replaces him.  It is just the latest chapter in the eurozone debt crisis which we said could dominate the headlines for the remainder of 2011.

The indexes have stayed in a tight trading range today as a result which could last into the close unless there is a final hour rally by bulls which we think is likely.

The Dow is up 11 points to 12,079 while the S&P 500 is higher by 3 points to 1,264.  The Nasdaq is showing a 10 point pop and is at 2,705 which is bullish.

We are close to adding a few more new trades but we want to close some current ones out, first.  We are on the verge of taking profits on a couple more names so we don’t need to push the action.  For those of you who have our trading course, we will be doing a video tonight on a few trades that could make our Watch List in the next day or two.

Remember, upgrade to a 1-year membership, save money (you save 25% over the monthly rate), and get our trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, at no charge, along with our ongoing videos.  Shipping is also on the house.

Let’s get ready for a push higher, subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

Bulls Fade but Could Bounce Back

Monday, November 7th, 2011

1:05pm (EST)

We have our fingers in a lot of pies so our commentary will be short today as we have an open trade with headline news due out after the bell.  Not only has today been busy, we expect a super busy week so stay on your toes.

The bulls have been a little lazy today after jumping out to an early lead.  Perhaps they sent some of the herd out to test the waters but the bears appear ready to fight.

The Dow has trade above 12,000 but is down 78 points to 11,904 while the S&P is off by 9 points to 1,244.  The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points and is at 2,656.

The Financial sector is weighing on the market as Greece seems to be on the back burner while Italy has moved to the front on Europe’s hot stove.  We used the weakness to sell our only open put option recommendation for a 33% gain but they continue to move higher as shares move lower.

We will be back in the morning with a full update but the action is inside.  We are taking HALF profits on another trade that is up 80% so pay attention to our comments.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.     

Another One Bites the Dust

Monday, October 31st, 2011

1:30pm (EST)

Futures were weak Sunday night and got progressively worse as we headed into this morning’s opening bell so we were prepared for a lower open.  There are a few headwinds in play for the bulls this morning, mainly, the MF Global (MF, $1.20) debacle which is the latest firm to go belly-up.

The brokerage firm filed for bankruptcy protection after getting a letter that it had been suspended from conducting new business with the New York Federal Reserve.  MF Global had a “meeting of the minds” over the weekend to see if its top brass could save the company but they decided against selling the company or they were asking too much for a company that made a big bet on European sovereign debt. 

MF listed debt at $40 billion versus assets of $41 billion in its Chapter 11 papers this morning.

As far as economic news, the Chicago PMI for October was a disappointment and has added a little pressure to the downside.  The index came in at 58.4, down from 60.4 in September, and missed expectations for a print of 58.9.  We said in our Weekly Wrap a number north of 60 might provide some juice for the bulls but the miss wasn’t all that bad.

Despite today’s pullback, the market is on pace to finish October with historic gains.

The Dow is down 168 points to 12,062 but has held the 12,000 level while the S&P is off 19 points to 1,266.  The Nasdaq is lower by 32 points to 2,705.

Third-quarter earnings are still in the mix and tomorrow’s big names include:  American Capital (ACAS, $7.97, down $0.06), Baker Hughes (BHI, $57.83, down $3.06),   CF Industries (CF, $165.10, down $5.04), Dunkin Brands Group (DNKN, $28.92, up $1.03), Peets Coffee & Tea (PEET, $63.76, up $0.30) and Pfizer (PFE, $19.55, down $0.27).

We have a lot to cover in our Members Area, including an update for our latest recommendation so we have to cut it a little short today.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

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Trader Comments:
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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