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Thursday, April 19th, 2012
2:00pm (EST)
Futures can cause some sleepless nights which is one reason we don’t trade them because we would never get any sleep. When you are long call options and futures are showing a higher market before you hit the rack then you can sleep tight. However, when futures are soaring and you are short the market, or own put options, you might find yourself grabbing a midnight snack while checking on your computer.
We also like to say after-hours trading and futures don’t really count until the market opens. What really matters is the homework you do and keeping your emotions in check.
We had a feeling economic news would disappoint today and we also felt Spain’s bond auction wouldn’t be as smooth as Wall Street was predicting. And, after a slightly positive start, all three major indexes are firmly in the red as we head into the second half of trading.
Initial Claims came in at 386,000 versus expectations for a print of 370,000. Continuing Claims were 3.29 million versus expectations for 3.3 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing number disappointed at 8.5 which was well below the suit-and-ties guesstimates for a reading of 12. And finally, Existing Home Sales were also a drag as March sales came in at 4.48 million versus calls for 4.62 million units.
Earnings came in better-than-expected across the board this morning as a number of companies beat expectations but many are still missing on revenue numbers. The talking heads and Wall Street pros are saying companies are “beating” estimates but to us when you miss on 1 out of 2 estimates, you “missed” estimates. It’s kind of like the half empty/ half full argument.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 65 points to 12,966 while the S&P 500 is off by 7 points t o 1,378. The Nasdaq is lower by 15 points to 3,016.
We may have action to take on a few trades later this afternoon. The 4 trades we released on Tuesday are all doing well and they were meant to be “quick” hits, meaning we plan on being in and out as we wait for confirmation of a continued breakdown. Until it happens, it’s best to take profits while you can to continue building up your trading account.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest updates!
Tags: bear market, continuing claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed numbers Posted in Earnings, Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011
8:45am (EST)
Europe’s head honcho’s are falling faster than dominoes as Greece’s Prime Minster dropped first followed by Italy’s – once their austerity budgets pass. Unfortunately, the US will have to wait until 2012 to get some new knuckleheads in office but hopefully they are business people who can create jobs. In any event, we mentioned yesterday in our midday update the action has been hot in the afternoon and the bulls plowed ahead right on cue.
The Dow rolled higher by 102 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 12,170. The index reached a peak of 12,187 and we said to watch for a run to 12,200 first, followed by 12,350.
The S&P jumped 15 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 1,275-and change. The high was 1,277 and we penciled-in 1,300 Sunday night/ Monday morning in our Weekly Wrap.
The Nasdaq popped 32 points, or 1.2%, to settle at 2,727. We said a run to 2,750 was possible this week and we are halfway there – with the bears living on a prayer.
The push to the next layer of resistance was nice but futures are pointing towards a nasty open this morning which means we will test support again. We had 2 new trades we were looking to get into this morning but let’s see how the action plays out.
Also, be on the lookout for possible Trade Alerts if we close any current recommendations or need to make any adjustments. For those of you who are trading course members, we did a video late last night that is 25 minutes long so we wanted to send today’s morning issue out a little early so you have plenty of time to prepare for today’s action.
As we head to press, here’s the deal: Dow futures (-223); S&P 500 futures (-30); Nasdaq 100 futures (-45).
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, VIX Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, November 8th, 2011
2:10pm (EST)
The action today has been mixed as the bulls took the early lead to push the market higher while the bears are playing catch-up. Wall Street seemed a little uneasy this morning as traders waited on a key vote in Italy’s parliament which ousted its Prime Minister. Silvio Berlusconi, who has a history of shady doings and dealings and he isn’t seen in the brightest light, failed to win an absolute majority which was really no big surprise – although he did win ratification of the budget.
The big concern for Italy will be who replaces him. It is just the latest chapter in the eurozone debt crisis which we said could dominate the headlines for the remainder of 2011.
The indexes have stayed in a tight trading range today as a result which could last into the close unless there is a final hour rally by bulls which we think is likely.
The Dow is up 11 points to 12,079 while the S&P 500 is higher by 3 points to 1,264. The Nasdaq is showing a 10 point pop and is at 2,705 which is bullish.
We are close to adding a few more new trades but we want to close some current ones out, first. We are on the verge of taking profits on a couple more names so we don’t need to push the action. For those of you who have our trading course, we will be doing a video tonight on a few trades that could make our Watch List in the next day or two.
Remember, upgrade to a 1-year membership, save money (you save 25% over the monthly rate), and get our trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, at no charge, along with our ongoing videos. Shipping is also on the house.
Let’s get ready for a push higher, subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, November 7th, 2011
1:05pm (EST)
We have our fingers in a lot of pies so our commentary will be short today as we have an open trade with headline news due out after the bell. Not only has today been busy, we expect a super busy week so stay on your toes.
The bulls have been a little lazy today after jumping out to an early lead. Perhaps they sent some of the herd out to test the waters but the bears appear ready to fight.
The Dow has trade above 12,000 but is down 78 points to 11,904 while the S&P is off by 9 points to 1,244. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 30 points and is at 2,656.
The Financial sector is weighing on the market as Greece seems to be on the back burner while Italy has moved to the front on Europe’s hot stove. We used the weakness to sell our only open put option recommendation for a 33% gain but they continue to move higher as shares move lower.
We will be back in the morning with a full update but the action is inside. We are taking HALF profits on another trade that is up 80% so pay attention to our comments. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX Posted in Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off
Monday, October 31st, 2011
1:30pm (EST)
Futures were weak Sunday night and got progressively worse as we headed into this morning’s opening bell so we were prepared for a lower open. There are a few headwinds in play for the bulls this morning, mainly, the MF Global (MF, $1.20) debacle which is the latest firm to go belly-up.
The brokerage firm filed for bankruptcy protection after getting a letter that it had been suspended from conducting new business with the New York Federal Reserve. MF Global had a “meeting of the minds” over the weekend to see if its top brass could save the company but they decided against selling the company or they were asking too much for a company that made a big bet on European sovereign debt.
MF listed debt at $40 billion versus assets of $41 billion in its Chapter 11 papers this morning.
As far as economic news, the Chicago PMI for October was a disappointment and has added a little pressure to the downside. The index came in at 58.4, down from 60.4 in September, and missed expectations for a print of 58.9. We said in our Weekly Wrap a number north of 60 might provide some juice for the bulls but the miss wasn’t all that bad.
Despite today’s pullback, the market is on pace to finish October with historic gains.
The Dow is down 168 points to 12,062 but has held the 12,000 level while the S&P is off 19 points to 1,266. The Nasdaq is lower by 32 points to 2,705.
Third-quarter earnings are still in the mix and tomorrow’s big names include: American Capital (ACAS, $7.97, down $0.06), Baker Hughes (BHI, $57.83, down $3.06), CF Industries (CF, $165.10, down $5.04), Dunkin Brands Group (DNKN, $28.92, up $1.03), Peets Coffee & Tea (PEET, $63.76, up $0.30) and Pfizer (PFE, $19.55, down $0.27).
We have a lot to cover in our Members Area, including an update for our latest recommendation so we have to cut it a little short today. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: bear market, bears, blue-chip stocks, bulls, chicken option trade, chicken trade, Dow, Dow quotes, gold quotes, Google call options, Google+earnings, momentum, momentum options, Nasdaq, option mentoring, option trading course, S&P 500, straddle option trade, VIX Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Bears Taking Control
Thursday, April 19th, 2012
2:00pm (EST)
Futures can cause some sleepless nights which is one reason we don’t trade them because we would never get any sleep. When you are long call options and futures are showing a higher market before you hit the rack then you can sleep tight. However, when futures are soaring and you are short the market, or own put options, you might find yourself grabbing a midnight snack while checking on your computer.
We also like to say after-hours trading and futures don’t really count until the market opens. What really matters is the homework you do and keeping your emotions in check.
We had a feeling economic news would disappoint today and we also felt Spain’s bond auction wouldn’t be as smooth as Wall Street was predicting. And, after a slightly positive start, all three major indexes are firmly in the red as we head into the second half of trading.
Initial Claims came in at 386,000 versus expectations for a print of 370,000. Continuing Claims were 3.29 million versus expectations for 3.3 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing number disappointed at 8.5 which was well below the suit-and-ties guesstimates for a reading of 12. And finally, Existing Home Sales were also a drag as March sales came in at 4.48 million versus calls for 4.62 million units.
Earnings came in better-than-expected across the board this morning as a number of companies beat expectations but many are still missing on revenue numbers. The talking heads and Wall Street pros are saying companies are “beating” estimates but to us when you miss on 1 out of 2 estimates, you “missed” estimates. It’s kind of like the half empty/ half full argument.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 65 points to 12,966 while the S&P 500 is off by 7 points t o 1,378. The Nasdaq is lower by 15 points to 3,016.
We may have action to take on a few trades later this afternoon. The 4 trades we released on Tuesday are all doing well and they were meant to be “quick” hits, meaning we plan on being in and out as we wait for confirmation of a continued breakdown. Until it happens, it’s best to take profits while you can to continue building up your trading account.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest updates!
Tags: bear market, continuing claims, Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed numbers
Posted in Earnings, Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off