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Friday, May 21st, 2010
11:30am (EST)
We thought we would give everyone a sneak peek into our exclusive Members Area as we close one of our trades today. We have been on a roll and we wanted to show you some of the profits our subscribers are making…in real time.

Our CLOSED track record is updated weekly and we will be adding some of our winners (and losers) for everyone to see. We also wanted to take this time to thank all of you who have written us with super comments.
MEMBERS AREA
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $35.98, up $0.48)
June 35 puts (ANF100619P00035000, $1.95, down $0.35)
Entry Price: $1.05 (5/17/10)
Exit Target: $2.00+ (closed half at $1.90 on 5/20/2010)
Return: 86%
Stop Target: $1.50, raise to $2.00 (HARD STOP)
Action: We have closed the other half of this trade as our hard stop has been hit. The average selling price was $1.95 as we closed half at $2.00 and half at $1.90. The puts traded as high as $2.70 but the market has bounced back and we want to lock in some profits before the weekend hits.
We will be back at 1pm with another update.
Tags: Abercrombie & Fitch, anf, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading Posted in Trade Update | Comments Off
Friday, November 13th, 2009
9:15am (EST)
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $36.76) is up 5% this morning in pre-market trading after beating Wall Street’s earnings expectations. The company said it earned $39 million, or $0.44 a share, versus $64 million, or $0.72 a share, in the year-ago period.
The 40% plunge in third-quarter earnings should have sent the shares plunging but we didn’t feel too comfortable shorting this one. We have been talking about how shares were right as resistance ($37-$38) but Wall Street has chosen to look forward to the company’s future prospects and is ignoring today’s lousy report. This is why trading earnings are so tricky…
Shares are up $2.39, to $39.15, and if the gains hold the stock will be at a new 52-week high…
We have a great story in the Members Area this morning on Netflix (NFLX, $58.19, down $1.25) and why you might want to take a look at the company.
Bottom Line: We think Netflix could be a $100 stock by next summer.
If so, find out how you can make 10x or more on your money on the RIGHT option trade. In other words, if we are right with our new option trade this morning, for every $150 you invest it could be worth $2,000. Or $1,500 into $20,000. We show you how this morning…
Futures are up as we head to press…Dow futures are up 17 to 10,206 meaning we are headed for a slightly higher open this morning.
Tags: Abercrombie & Fitch, momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Monday, November 9th, 2009
12:50pm (EST)
Finally, Barron’s has done us a favor…
Most of you know Barron’s and I don’t see eye-to-eye on a lot of things and every now and then it seems the magazine will run an article on a company that we have profiled as a trade. Call it déjà vu, luck of the draw, or how the cookie crumbles but the firm ran a negative piece in its Weekend Roundup on the for-profit colleges that talks about how the low graduation rates are and the high debt students are carrying despite not graduating.
Of course, we have been on this trade like grass on dirt and we recently rolled out of a profiled Apollo Group (APOL, $53.84, down $2.17) November put position into a December put option position. Current subscribers are up 30% on the new trade and we are looking for more downside if we can get some more negative SEC news about the company…
Well, well, well…look who got an upgrade this morning…Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $37.69, up $2.68) is flying higher after Goldman Sachs (GS, $175.36, up $3.58) upgraded the stock from “Neutral” to “Buy” and added it to their Conviction Buy List. Goldman also raised their 6-month price target from $36 to $45. FBR and Credit Suisse also came out with upgrades.
We have had some luck shorting Abercrombie & Fitch and the 7% surge today has put the stock right in our target zone. However, the storm is too strong for us to step in here and the company announces earnings on Friday. Some think the company will surprise but we don’t feel the urge to buy call options either. We just don’t trust the company…
RadioShack (RSH, $20.17, up $2.43) is up nearly 14% today after the company said they will sell Apple’s (AAPL, $199.73, up $5.39) iPhone at their stores. The company said the iPhone will be available in the Dallas-Fort Worth and New York City areas beginning later this month and in stores nationwide in 2010. We recently profiled a RadioShack trade that returned many of you over 150%, and as you can imagine, the analysts are tripping over each other to upgrade this one.
Credit Suisse also upgraded RadioShack from “Neutral” to “Outperform”, calling the news a “game-changer”. I like how powerful that made this sound because it will help the Shack’s earnings in the quarters to come. Credit Suisse echoes our sentiment and commented that the iPhone could add more than 25 cents to 2010 earnings. The price target was raised from $15 to $25.
FBR Capital got into the action by raising their 2010 estimate from $1.75 to $2.00 per share. The raised their rating on RadioShack to ”Outperform” and the price target from $23 to $26.
Another stock we have been watching closely is Research In Motion (RIMM, $60.78, up $2.06) which broke through $60 despite a downgrade from Susquehanna. There seems to be some takeover chatter hitting the water coolers this morning and most of it centers on Microsoft (MSFT, $28.68, up $0.16). Although it is nothing new, some traders think Microsoft could finally be interested in launching a bid for RIMM.
This rumor will likely get shot-down as the day drags on although the deal between the two companies makes a lot of sense…
And finally, Priceline.com (PCLN, $175.07, up $3.07) reports AFTER the bell. We were under the assumption the company would be reporting BEFORE the bell but obviously that is not the case. Our resource had said the firm would report before the bell and when we didn’t see anything by 9am this morning we should have double-checked. In any event, the trade we profiled from Friday is positive and we have updated the trade in the Members Area along with a few others…
The Dow has hit a new high for the year as it is up 155 points to 10,179.
Tags: Abercrombie & Fitch, Apollo Group, RadioShack Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Commentary, Option Trades | Comments Off
Monday, October 12th, 2009
12:40pm (EST)
The market is moving higher today as the Dow now stands 100 points away from 10,000. Currently, the index is up 37 to 9,901 and traded as high as 9,931 earlier this morning. Trading has been fairly light due to the Columbus Day holiday and the bond markets are closed. There are no major economic reports today so the bulls could make their run in the afternoon.
Exxon Mobil (XOM, $70.25, up $0.98) has busted through $70 and I had mentioned that we missed a trade when the stock traded to a low of $66 last Monday. I listed the November 70 calls (XOMKN, $1.85, up $0.35) outside of the Members Area because they were up 40% that day and I didn’t like the entry price of $1.50.
Since it was sort of a “Free Trade”, I thought I would expand my thoughts on the subject. There is resistance at $71-$72 for the stock and if you got in at $1.50, set stops there. If Exxon can muster up some momentum then shares have a shot at $73-$74 where further resistance comes into play. If the stock is at $73 by November 20th, the November 70′s are worth at least $3; at $74 they are worth $4…
One of our favorite Biotech’s is getting a pop today. It looks like Dendreon (DNDN, $29.38, up $1.90) could be on the move again. On the last day of August, we profiled a Dendreon trade that returned subscribers 100% in a little over two weeks. In March, Dendreon made the move from $5 to $25 and some subscribers made 10x that.
Dendreon will submit its application for Provenge to the FDA in November but today’s jump comes on news that the company added two new directors to its board.
One of them is chief executive of Roche’s Genentech unit and the other is a former Eli Lilly (LLY, $33.88, up $0.10) manufacturing executive. I don’t think we get in today but I’m looking at the option chain to see which ones could benefit the most if a buyout offer is coming…
Speaking of noise, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $35.97, up $1.15) has continued its rebound and is setting up nice for us.
I will be back in the morning with the trade updates and possibly some new gems. Let’s hope the bulls continue to push.
Tags: Abercrombie & Fitch, Dendreon, Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobil, momentum trading, options blog, options mentoring, options track record, Roche Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Mergers and Acquisitions, Oil, Option Trades, Sectors, Strategies | Comments Off
Thursday, October 8th, 2009
1:00pm (EST)
The bulls are resuming their climb towards Dow 10,000 after getting positive earnings from Alcoa (AA, $14.54, up $0.34) and a couple of better-than-expected economic reports. The Dow added nearly 250 points on Monday and Tuesday and took a breather yesterday as it lost 6 points. Currently, the Dow is up 93 to 9,818 while the S&P 500 is up 12 points to 1,070. The Nasdaq is chipping in with a 27 point rally and is at 2,139.
The Labor Department reported that new claims for jobless benefits fell to 521,000 last week, down from 554,000 the previous week and better than Wall Street had expected. The bulls found added momentum in this report because it was the lowest level since early January.
Retail stocks are rolling as retailers saw their first sales gains in more than a year last month. The sector showed an increase of 0.1% for September, compared with a 1% drop a year ago. I don’t see what the big deal is but a number of stocks are benefitting as a result.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $35.14, up $2.48) is up nearly 8% and we just closed a short-side trade that netted us nearly 30%. The stock is now at the “top” of its recent trading range so it remains to been seen if it breaks resistance here and heads up to $40 or falls back to $30. We may have to look at this one again next week…
I also wanted to talk about using cheap out-of-the-money options and earnings. Most of our trades aren’t based around earnings but they come up every three months so you have to work around them. Most options “experts” will tell you to leave these types of plays alone but if you have a solid trading plan, one that consistently produces profits, then it is cool to throw a little loose change on some speculative trades.
I had mentioned a couple of Alcoa options yesterday that weren’t in the Members Area because I didn’t know which way Alcoa would be reporting. The Street was expecting a loss but I had pointed out that there was 3x more call buying than put buying heading into Alcoa’s earnings report.
The October 14 calls (AAJN, $0.84, up $0.08) were at 63 cents yesterday in the 1pm update and hit a high of $1.20 this morning…almost a free double that market was giving us…
Anyway, those are the types of returns these types of option trades can provide but you have to be in-and-out. I thought Alcoa would miss earnings (like Wall Street was predicting) but the momentum in this stock was apparent all week.
We have one of these types of trades going with Intel (INTC, $19.92, up $0.17) right now. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the 1pm update on this trade and the Pepsico (PEP, $60.13, down $1.04) trade.
Tags: Abercrombie & Fitch, Alcoa, Intel, momentum plays, Momentum stocks, option picks, options track record Posted in Earnings, Financial Stocks, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off
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Abercrombie & Fitch Beats Estimates
Friday, November 13th, 2009
9:15am (EST)
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $36.76) is up 5% this morning in pre-market trading after beating Wall Street’s earnings expectations. The company said it earned $39 million, or $0.44 a share, versus $64 million, or $0.72 a share, in the year-ago period.
The 40% plunge in third-quarter earnings should have sent the shares plunging but we didn’t feel too comfortable shorting this one. We have been talking about how shares were right as resistance ($37-$38) but Wall Street has chosen to look forward to the company’s future prospects and is ignoring today’s lousy report. This is why trading earnings are so tricky…
Shares are up $2.39, to $39.15, and if the gains hold the stock will be at a new 52-week high…
We have a great story in the Members Area this morning on Netflix (NFLX, $58.19, down $1.25) and why you might want to take a look at the company.
Bottom Line: We think Netflix could be a $100 stock by next summer.
If so, find out how you can make 10x or more on your money on the RIGHT option trade. In other words, if we are right with our new option trade this morning, for every $150 you invest it could be worth $2,000. Or $1,500 into $20,000. We show you how this morning…
Futures are up as we head to press…Dow futures are up 17 to 10,206 meaning we are headed for a slightly higher open this morning.
Tags: Abercrombie & Fitch, momentum options, MomentumOptionsTrading.com, option trading picks, options help, options mentoring, options track record, options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off