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Sunday, November 18th, 2012
11:00pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. Rosetta Stone (RST) – A Key to Understanding
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section. We are sorry for tonight’s delay but we wanted to cover everything before we went to press.)
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are doing well for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and is 24-0. Together, we are 146-54 (73% win rate) for both newsletters and we doubt you will find a hotter options trading service.
Our list of winners for 2012 include+475% on AXP,+462% on ARNA,+292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is now 26-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet returns include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Trade Update, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off
Monday, November 12th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“There are plenty of signals to sift through on trying to figure out where the market could be headed over the short-term but the Presidential Election will be the heaviest weight that could sink or swim either side. Like the election, there will be a loser and the trend could affect how the market trades for the rest of the year.
Economic news, earnings, and European headlines will be a risk and the headlines would seem to favor the bears going forward but it has been hard to count the bulls out all year long. We are on the fence on which way the market is headed but we wouldn’t be surprised either way which direction the market takes from here. The beauty is we could care less because our Portfolios are light and we like to play BOTH sides of the market and that gives us an edge over most investors and mutual fund managers.
When the market is going up, we favor call option trades. When the market is going down, we use put options to play the downside. We have outlined clear levels of support and resistance so we can relax a little until after the dust settles. There will be plenty of time and plenty of trades to get into so let’s look at how this week could play out.
We have said there is a chance for a “Romney Rally” and we aren’t sure if we coined this term back in August but it is picking up steam. There are different perceptions on which President is “better” for the stock market but the majority of investors and Wall Street believe an Obama win would be bullish. We don’t.
To start, an Obama second-term could cause further division between the Republicans and Democrats and we doubt the Fiscal Cliff would get resolved by year-end, especially with the holidays coming up. Romney has said he will solve these issues like he did when he was governor but stock market pundits believe if he gets rid of Ben Bernanke, the market will tank in 2013 because the Fed won’t be providing liquidity.
Our argument would be 12 million jobs like he promised and growing the economy at a much faster rate is better than doubling the national debt again which is what happened during Obama’s 4 years in the White House. In case anyone has forgotten, the U.S. owes $16 trillion. This is 16 plus 12 zeros, or $16,000,000,000,000, or a million millions.
The deficit is the single-most factor in deciding America’s future and Obama could push it to $20 trillion at his current rate. Oh, and Obama wants to INCREASE capital gains tax. Romney wants to eliminate them. Right on.
We could go on and on about who could win, who should win, what could happen or what will happen but in our minds, we would rather have a President that has run businesses and balanced budgets instead of going down the current road towards socialism.
As far as the technical picture, the indexes have held their 200-day MA’s except for Tech and all of them are having trouble clearing their 50-day MA’s. It would be hard to imagine the Dow, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 not falling below their 200-day MA’s simply because Tech has. However, if this is the bottom, overall, it will be easy to say they held if there is a rally. But that would be hindsight and that is why we feel a test below the 200-day MA’s will come over the near-term for all of the major indexes.
If there isn’t, and the market rallies maybe we can thank Mitt because we do feel he will be better for the market, but more importantly, America. If there is somehow a “tie” and lawyers get involved because the race is so tight, the market will suffer.
There has been one indicator, believe it or not, that has been incredibly accurate in picking the next President and has a 95% win rate.
We will leave you with what we call the Redskins Rule. Since we live and work near the nation’s Capital, it is hard not to follow the NFL Washington Redskins (and politics) and the Redskins Rule is something we always watch every 4 years. We weren’t around when the “indicator” started in 1940 mind you but it has an incredible accurate history of picking the next President.
Over the past 18 Washington Redskin’s HOME games before the Presidential election, the incumbent party (or the party that last won the popular vote) has won 17 of the times if the Redskins won. If the Redskins lost their home game before the election, the challenging party has won (Romney).
The Redskins played on Sunday and were at home pagainst the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins lost 13-21. This will be a historic week to say the least as we could get a Redskin Ruling, a Romney Rally, or a Barrack Breakdown”. (from 11/4/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
“Hail to Obama, hail victory, Democrats on the war path, fight for all D.C. – Theme song at the White House following Tuesday’s Presidential race…
The Redskin Rule was a fumble, there was a Romney Rally, but the devil was in the details as the market got the Barrack Breakdown. The bears pushed support on Monday as the Dow held 13,000 and the S&P 500 1,400. The bulls were able to rebound to start the week with a slight win which carried over into Tuesday.
The major indexes posted strong gains and cleared near-term resistance ahead of the Presidential Election but Tech looked weak and the closes were right at resistance. We watched the race and the futures throughout the night and we warned of a major selloff on Sunday night. Despite us being unhappy with the Head Zombie that got elected to serve America, we were extremely pleased with how the futures market was unfolding.
Wednesday was a nasty day as the market fell 2.5%, on average, with the Dow closing below 13,000 and its 200-day Moving Average (MA) while the S&P finished below 1,400. The index was able to hold it 200-day MA at 1,380 but this level fell on Thursday as the Dow and S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq in accomplishing this mission.
Friday was up for grabs and we figured there would be a bounce, and there was until Obama spoke, but the market barely held onto its gains and the next levels of support.
**************************************
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Sunday, November 11th, 2012
11:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. LifeLock (LOCK) Announces Sweet Earnings
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section. We are sorry for tonight’s delay but we wanted to cover everything before we went to press.)
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are doing well for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and is 26-0. Together, we are 144-50 (75% win rate) for both newsletters and we doubt you will find a hotter options trading service.
Our list of winners for 2012 include+475% on AXP,+462% on ARNA,+292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is now 26-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet returns include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, LOCK, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, August 27th, 2012
12:25pm (EST)
To no surprise, the market has traded in a tight range with both the bulls and bears getting a little piece of the action.
Economic news has been light although there was a regional report worth mentioning. The Texas Manufacturing Survey came in at -1.6 for August which was a huge improvement from July’s reading of -13.2.
As far as story stocks, Tiffany & Company (TIF, $62.60, up $4.10) missed earnings by a penny and cut full-year guidance but shares are up. Tiffany reported a profit of $91.8 million, or $0.72 a share, versus $90 million, or $0.69 a share, in the year-earlier period. As far as its outlook, the company gave a 2012 profit range of $3.55-$3.70 a share versus prior estimates of $3.70-$3.80 a share. Despite the lowered guidance and slightly worse-than-expected results, the stock is up 7%.
Apple (AAPL, $677.17, up $13.95) is popping 2% higher and hit an all-time high of $682 share shortly after the open. We mentioned the news from Friday night the company won its patent litigation case against Samsung and it was a huge win along with the $1 billion in settlement charges. Google (GOOG, $668.88, down $9.75) shares are trading lower as worries arise on what impact this could have on its Android phones.
Google, along with others, may have to come up with a “work around” plan as it tweaks or deletes certain features in new devices that may threaten Apple’s existing patents.
Samsung, which trades in the Asian markets, lost $12 billion in market cap, as shares were punished overseas.
We’ve got a little action happening with our current trades which are showing some nice gains so we have to roll so we can update our subscribers.
As we head to press, the Dow is up a dozen points to 13,170 while the S&P 500 is higher by 4 points to 1,415. The Nasdaq is advancing 10 points to 3,079.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: AAPL, Apple all time highs, GOOG, Samsung/ Apple lawsuit
Posted in Apple, Google, Market Analysis, Option Trades | Comments Off
Thursday, July 26th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market ended slightly mixed on Wednesday as rumors of the Federal Reserve acting sooner, rather than later, continue to make the rounds. There was an article floating around late Tuesday that the Fed could take action as early as next week which helped provide some of the bounce before the close and the same story was providing some support yesterday.
The Dow advanced 59 points, or 0.5%, to close at 12,676. The blue-chips traded to a high of 12,732 and stayed green all day but finished below the 12,800 level which is what we were looking for. Wednesday’s high was just above Tuesday’s test to 12,730 so resistance is still moving lower.
The S&P 500 dipped a half-point, or 0.03%, to settle at 1,337.89. The index traded to a low of 1,331 shortly after the open but couldn’t crack Tuesday’s low of 1,329. The S&P rebounded off the bottom to test a high of 1,344 but the bears were able to hold 1,350 which is short-term resistance.
The Nasdaq gave back 9 points, or 0.3%, to end at 2,854. Tech traded to a low of 2,839 but never really challenged the 2,800 level as Apple (AAPL, $574.97, down $25.95) found some buyers at $570. The index actually made a few trips into positive territory and made it up to 2,870 before holding 2,850 into the close.
The Russell 2000 added nearly 2 points to finish at 769 while the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 19.34, down 1.13) fell 5% to close below 20 again.
The bulls are hoping for another round of quantitative easing but the Wall Street Journal report from Tuesday afternoon was mostly old news that is being rehashed. While there is a chance the Fed could act next Tuesday, which is when they meet, they will probably wait to see where the economy is at in September. Reacting next week would seem like a knee-jerk reaction by Ben Bernanke which is highly unlikely.
Ben Bernanke has been pretty vocal on the lack of effort shown by the zombies who make up our Congress and we have mentioned any bullets he has left will be bb’s. If he does have a bazooka, he isn’t going to use it until Europe does something or goes belly-up. His thinking is that Congress will get its act together before he has to do something but there is a growing feeling the U.S. fiscal cliff could be reached by September as we reach the top of the debt ceiling again.
As long as the rumors are around the Fed might do something, there could be some support which, unfortunately, could extend the trading range we have been in. However, economic news will be heating up over the next 2 days so let’s see where we are at by Friday’s close before we draw this conclusion. Also, if the Fed doesn’t act next week, the earliest they could act afterwards is September so the good news is we should see a break out of the current range by then, or sooner.
Earnings after the bell on Wednesday were mostly upbeat but Moody’s (MCO, $36.05, up $0.29) lowered its rating outlook on 17 German banks to negative following another review of the country’s sovereign debt. Germany is one of the stringer countries in the eurozone so this could be a big deal going forward.
Futures are showing a strong open and look like this as we head to press: Dow (+146); S&P 500 (+17), Nasdaq 100 (+32
Tags: AAPL, Moody's Germany downgrade
Posted in Apple, Economic News, European Union (EU), Market Analysis | Comments Off
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Bulls Looking Weak as Bears Have Momentum
Monday, November 12th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“There are plenty of signals to sift through on trying to figure out where the market could be headed over the short-term but the Presidential Election will be the heaviest weight that could sink or swim either side. Like the election, there will be a loser and the trend could affect how the market trades for the rest of the year.
Economic news, earnings, and European headlines will be a risk and the headlines would seem to favor the bears going forward but it has been hard to count the bulls out all year long. We are on the fence on which way the market is headed but we wouldn’t be surprised either way which direction the market takes from here. The beauty is we could care less because our Portfolios are light and we like to play BOTH sides of the market and that gives us an edge over most investors and mutual fund managers.
When the market is going up, we favor call option trades. When the market is going down, we use put options to play the downside. We have outlined clear levels of support and resistance so we can relax a little until after the dust settles. There will be plenty of time and plenty of trades to get into so let’s look at how this week could play out.
We have said there is a chance for a “Romney Rally” and we aren’t sure if we coined this term back in August but it is picking up steam. There are different perceptions on which President is “better” for the stock market but the majority of investors and Wall Street believe an Obama win would be bullish. We don’t.
To start, an Obama second-term could cause further division between the Republicans and Democrats and we doubt the Fiscal Cliff would get resolved by year-end, especially with the holidays coming up. Romney has said he will solve these issues like he did when he was governor but stock market pundits believe if he gets rid of Ben Bernanke, the market will tank in 2013 because the Fed won’t be providing liquidity.
Our argument would be 12 million jobs like he promised and growing the economy at a much faster rate is better than doubling the national debt again which is what happened during Obama’s 4 years in the White House. In case anyone has forgotten, the U.S. owes $16 trillion. This is 16 plus 12 zeros, or $16,000,000,000,000, or a million millions.
The deficit is the single-most factor in deciding America’s future and Obama could push it to $20 trillion at his current rate. Oh, and Obama wants to INCREASE capital gains tax. Romney wants to eliminate them. Right on.
We could go on and on about who could win, who should win, what could happen or what will happen but in our minds, we would rather have a President that has run businesses and balanced budgets instead of going down the current road towards socialism.
As far as the technical picture, the indexes have held their 200-day MA’s except for Tech and all of them are having trouble clearing their 50-day MA’s. It would be hard to imagine the Dow, S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 not falling below their 200-day MA’s simply because Tech has. However, if this is the bottom, overall, it will be easy to say they held if there is a rally. But that would be hindsight and that is why we feel a test below the 200-day MA’s will come over the near-term for all of the major indexes.
If there isn’t, and the market rallies maybe we can thank Mitt because we do feel he will be better for the market, but more importantly, America. If there is somehow a “tie” and lawyers get involved because the race is so tight, the market will suffer.
There has been one indicator, believe it or not, that has been incredibly accurate in picking the next President and has a 95% win rate.
We will leave you with what we call the Redskins Rule. Since we live and work near the nation’s Capital, it is hard not to follow the NFL Washington Redskins (and politics) and the Redskins Rule is something we always watch every 4 years. We weren’t around when the “indicator” started in 1940 mind you but it has an incredible accurate history of picking the next President.
Over the past 18 Washington Redskin’s HOME games before the Presidential election, the incumbent party (or the party that last won the popular vote) has won 17 of the times if the Redskins won. If the Redskins lost their home game before the election, the challenging party has won (Romney).
The Redskins played on Sunday and were at home pagainst the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins lost 13-21. This will be a historic week to say the least as we could get a Redskin Ruling, a Romney Rally, or a Barrack Breakdown”. (from 11/4/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
“Hail to Obama, hail victory, Democrats on the war path, fight for all D.C. – Theme song at the White House following Tuesday’s Presidential race…
The Redskin Rule was a fumble, there was a Romney Rally, but the devil was in the details as the market got the Barrack Breakdown. The bears pushed support on Monday as the Dow held 13,000 and the S&P 500 1,400. The bulls were able to rebound to start the week with a slight win which carried over into Tuesday.
The major indexes posted strong gains and cleared near-term resistance ahead of the Presidential Election but Tech looked weak and the closes were right at resistance. We watched the race and the futures throughout the night and we warned of a major selloff on Sunday night. Despite us being unhappy with the Head Zombie that got elected to serve America, we were extremely pleased with how the futures market was unfolding.
Wednesday was a nasty day as the market fell 2.5%, on average, with the Dow closing below 13,000 and its 200-day Moving Average (MA) while the S&P finished below 1,400. The index was able to hold it 200-day MA at 1,380 but this level fell on Thursday as the Dow and S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq in accomplishing this mission.
Friday was up for grabs and we figured there would be a bounce, and there was until Obama spoke, but the market barely held onto its gains and the next levels of support.
**************************************
Tags: 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average, AAPL, call option activity, index options, option buy signals, put option activity, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off