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Friday, July 20th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls won their third-straight session on Thursday and made another run at upper resistance levels but ran out of gas midday way through the session. The surge during the first half of trading was enough to allow them to coast to victory as the bears never got it in second gear.
The Dow added 35 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 12,943. The blue-chips tested a high of 12,977 at lunchtime after dipping to a low of 12,889 shortly after the open. The bulls made a push at 13,000 and if cleared it could be smooth sailing up to 13,200. We mentioned yesterday if the bulls fail to clear this level by the weekend there could be a test back down to 12,600 over the near-term.
The S&P 500 popped 4 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 1,376. We said a close above 1,375 would get 1,400 into play and yesterday’s high was 1,380. The low was 1,371. The 52-week high is 1,422 which was hit on the first trading day of April.
The Nasdaq led the way higher after jumping 23 points, or 0.8%, to close at 2,965. Tech touched a top of 2,976 and is a little over 1% away from taking out the 3,000 level. Unlike the Dow and S&P, the Nasdaq held green all day and above 2,950 which was bullish.
The Russell 2000 fell 3 points to finish at 802. The small-caps traded to 808 and we said a close above 810 would be bullish but the negative close could be another clue the market is topping. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.45, down 0.71) fell another 4% and has reached our mid-teen target. There is still a chance the VIX could push the low teens and that would mean the S&P 500 is at 52-week highs.
After the close, Google (GOOG, $593.06, up $12.30) and Microsoft (MSFT, $30.67, up $0.22) came in with mixed results but shares of both companies got nice little pops in extended trading.
Google beat estimates and had a huge beat on revenue by $70 million. Microsoft posted its first ever quarterly loss after taking charges for its online division and an expensive, money losing acquisition. However, Mr. Softie posted strong sales as revenue rose 4% and topped $18 billion for the quarter. Google was trading above $600 when after-hours trading closed while Microsoft was above $31. Both levels are holding before the bell.
You would think futures would have gotten a nice pop but they were weak all night. Shortly after 1am (EST), Dow futures were down 33 while the Nasdaq futures were flat as a pancake. They have gotten worse this morning as we head towards the opening bell and look like this: Dow (-66), S&P 500 (-9), Nasdaq (-8).
We have an important chart to show you this morning on a stock we have traded options on 4 times over the past few months. All of the recommendations have been put options and have made our subscribers 172%, 144%, 29% and 6%. Shares are right near resistance again so let’s go see what the chart looks like inside the Members Area.
Tags: economic news, GOOG, option trading newsletter, YHOO
Posted in Google, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
Friday, January 20th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls rolled out the red carpet after the bell on Thursday as a number of companies were set to report earnings. Despite the high profile events, the market moved higher as Tech once again led the way.
The Dow gained 46 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 12,625. The blue-chips closed on their highs for the day which opens the door for a test up to 12,800 as the index ended above our near-term 12,600 target.
The S&P added a 6-pack, or 0.5%, to settle at 1,315. The index managed to stay in the green all day after testing the breakeven level shortly after the open. We said there could be fluff up to 1,325-1,350 on the close above 1,300 which would be nice for the bulls to hold going into the weekend.
The Nasdaq jumped 18 points, or 0.7%, and ended at 2,788. Tech made a run at our 2,800 target but fell short after kissing a high of 2,793.
Yesterday’s news is actually today’s headlines as we have a ton of stocks in play ahead of the open. Most noticeably, Google (GOOG, $639.57, up $6.66) shares are down a whopping 10% (like we predicted) after the company missed Wall Street’s estimates. It seems the gains on Thursday ($6.66) were a sign of bad things to come.
Google was down over $60 at one-point last night in extended trading and in pre-market action, shares are down $50 to $590.
Elsewhere in pre-market trading, Intel (INTC, $25.63, up $0.24) is up 2% after they beat estimates and offered in-line guidance for the current quarter. International Business Machines (IBM, $180.52, down $0.55) is trading higher to $185 despite missing analysts’ revenue targets but did up guidance going forward.
And finally, Microsoft (MSFT, $28.12, down $0.11) is pushing $29 after reporting a profit of $6.6 billion, or $0.78 a share, on revenue of $20.9 billion for the quarter. This was slightly below last year’s showing of $0.77 a share on sales of $19.95 billion for the quarter, but slightly ahead of the 76 cents the suit-and-ties had penciled in.
Shares of Microsoft are at $28.77, up $0.65, ahead of the bell. We currently have open trades on this name so look for possible Profit Alerts if we take action. We have a $35 price target on Microsoft by summertime but we want to take advantage of today’s possible pop to lock in profits on our February call options.
Futures are pointing towards a mixed open and look like this: Dow (-16), S&P (-3), Nasdaq (flat).
We also have some other current open trades that we may take action on this morning and we have raised the HARD STOPS for a few of them in case there is a pullback. With the weekend here, we may lock-in some triple-digit profits! Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay locked-and-loaded.
Tags: GOOG, IBM, INTC earnings, momentum options, MSFT
Posted in Earnings, Google, Market Commentary, Trade Update, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
Monday, November 28th, 2011
9:00 (EST)
The market continued its recent slide as the bears had their best bull feast in nearly 80 years as Wall Street fell 5% last week. The recent selling pressure became much more serious as all of the indexes fell below their 50-day moving averages (MA) with the bears stretching their winning streak to seven-straight sessions.
The headline news read like a Vegas betting parlor as a number of European countries face further risks of defaulting. Germany was the latest country which showed a chink in the armor after trying to raise $6 billion euro but was only able to raise a little over half of it. Spain also went to the well and was successful in its bond auction but the yields came at a hefty price. Italy faces a huge crisis in 2012 if they can’t raise more dough, and they are trying, but it’s costing them an arm-and-leg.
The news here at home continues to come in better-than-expected and this week will be big with a number of month-end reports due out. As far as the charts, they have been stretched which often happens when headline news trumps the technical picture. The bears have clearly had the advantage and at some point there will be a rebound but until Europe can figure out its mess, the market will be held hostage.
The Dow slipped 26 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 11,232 on Friday’s shortened session. We went into the week looking for 11,600 to hold but that level was taken out on Monday. Our next downside targets were 11,400 and then 11,200, which held, but there is risk down to 10,800 this week if current levels don’t hold. If the bulls can get past 11,400 (black line, purple circles) then they could make a run back towards 11,600 and then 12,000 but the news has got to be awfully good. For the week, the Dow dropped 564 points, or 4.8%, and is now down 346 points, or 3% YTD…
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Futures are pointing towards a strong start for today’s session and look like this: Dow (+255), S&P 500 (+34), Nasdaq 100 (+53). We recommended 4 new trades on Friday and after two weeks of being patient and building new positions, hopefully we get the surge we have been expecting. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Momentum stocks, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Apple, BioTech, China, Commodities, Company Commentary, Covered Calls, Earnings, Economic News, Entertainment Stocks, European Union (EU), Financial Stocks, Futures, Gold, Google, Hot Stocks, IPOs, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Mergers and Acquisitions, Money Management, Oil, Option Trades, Rick's Account, Sectors, Stock Earnings, strangle option trades, Trade Update, Trading Psychology, Trading Tips, Uncategorized, VIX, Watch Lists, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
Friday, October 21st, 2011
9:00am (EST)
The market ended mixed on Thursday despite a day of good economic news and better-than expected earnings. We mentioned in our Weekly Wrap on Sunday that we would be entering the heart of 3Q earnings season this week and so far nearly 75% of the companies reporting have matched or beat expectations. Although the results haven’t provided the bulls with the momentum they were hoping for, there is some strength in the numbers which have helped the bulls hold support.
The major averages are showing a slight loss for the week as the bears try to snap the current 2-week winning streak the bulls’ are working on. Today is expiration day for the October options and it is usually a down session for the bulls. However, we continue to believe there will be a break higher out of the current trading range if Wall Street could just stop worrying about Europe. Then again, this is the 6th time since August the market has tried to break on through to the other side. (Yes, we wanted to remind you of a Doors song today – which is currently playing on the office jukebox as we type. How ironic, huh?).
The Dow added 37 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 11,541. The index traded to a low of 11,391 while the high was 11,581. Short-term support is at 11,350 while resistance remains 11,600.
The S&P gained 6 points, or 0.5%, and closed at 1,215. The index slipped below the 1,200 level after kissing a low of 1,197 but easily held the second wave of support which comes in at 1,175. We would like to see a close above 1,225 today – but as long as 1,200 sticks like glue, we will be happy going into the weekend.
The Nasdaq gave back 5 points, or 0.2%, to settle at 2,598. Tech touched a low of 2,557 which was just above the second wave of support at 2,550 and finished just below the 2,600 level. We aren’t too worried because it appears to us the Nasdaq is on the verge of testing 2,700 if it can clear resistance at 2,650.
After the close last night, Microsoft (MSFT, $27.04, down $0.09) matched earnings and beat sales expectations while SanDisk (SNDK, $45.50, up $0.32) absolutely smashed estimates.
Microsoft reported a profit of $5.74 billion, or $0.68 a share, versus $5.74 billion, or $0.62 a share, from the year earlier period. Revenue checked-in at $17.4 billion versus $17.2 billion a year ago while Wall Street had $0.68 as share on sales of $17.2 billion penciled-in. We knew Mister Softee would report a good quarter and we went long some call options that booked our subscribers 56% earlier this month. We have thought of making the stock a member of our Covered Call portfolio but we may be getting another great entry point to play this name again.
Elsewhere, SanDisk announced earnings of $1.20 a share versus a forecast of $1.06, on average, by most analysts. We said inside our Members Area yesterday that the company could surprise the Street and report a number north of $1.15. Shares are at $48 in pre-market action, up $2+.
Today is light as far as economic news and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a “flat” trading day as neither the bulls, or bears, will want to bet the ranch ahead of this weekend’s events concerning Europe. We were looking for another positive week but the bulls have some work to do. The Dow needs a triple-digit pop just to break even for the week so a 1% move is a must.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and the Watch List for some new ideas. There is one trade we like today but we are undecided on if we will get in this morning or wait until next week. If we do, look for a Trade Alert by 11am (sharp).
As we head towards the opening bell, futures look like this: Dow +110; S&P 500 +13; Nasdaq 100 futures are up 22 points.
Tags: Dow Futures, Microsoft (MSFT), S&P futures, Sandisk, SNDK earnings report
Posted in Covered Calls, Earnings, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
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Google (GOOG) Beats Estimates, Shares Crack $600
Friday, July 20th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls won their third-straight session on Thursday and made another run at upper resistance levels but ran out of gas midday way through the session. The surge during the first half of trading was enough to allow them to coast to victory as the bears never got it in second gear.
The Dow added 35 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 12,943. The blue-chips tested a high of 12,977 at lunchtime after dipping to a low of 12,889 shortly after the open. The bulls made a push at 13,000 and if cleared it could be smooth sailing up to 13,200. We mentioned yesterday if the bulls fail to clear this level by the weekend there could be a test back down to 12,600 over the near-term.
The S&P 500 popped 4 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 1,376. We said a close above 1,375 would get 1,400 into play and yesterday’s high was 1,380. The low was 1,371. The 52-week high is 1,422 which was hit on the first trading day of April.
The Nasdaq led the way higher after jumping 23 points, or 0.8%, to close at 2,965. Tech touched a top of 2,976 and is a little over 1% away from taking out the 3,000 level. Unlike the Dow and S&P, the Nasdaq held green all day and above 2,950 which was bullish.
The Russell 2000 fell 3 points to finish at 802. The small-caps traded to 808 and we said a close above 810 would be bullish but the negative close could be another clue the market is topping. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.45, down 0.71) fell another 4% and has reached our mid-teen target. There is still a chance the VIX could push the low teens and that would mean the S&P 500 is at 52-week highs.
After the close, Google (GOOG, $593.06, up $12.30) and Microsoft (MSFT, $30.67, up $0.22) came in with mixed results but shares of both companies got nice little pops in extended trading.
Google beat estimates and had a huge beat on revenue by $70 million. Microsoft posted its first ever quarterly loss after taking charges for its online division and an expensive, money losing acquisition. However, Mr. Softie posted strong sales as revenue rose 4% and topped $18 billion for the quarter. Google was trading above $600 when after-hours trading closed while Microsoft was above $31. Both levels are holding before the bell.
You would think futures would have gotten a nice pop but they were weak all night. Shortly after 1am (EST), Dow futures were down 33 while the Nasdaq futures were flat as a pancake. They have gotten worse this morning as we head towards the opening bell and look like this: Dow (-66), S&P 500 (-9), Nasdaq (-8).
We have an important chart to show you this morning on a stock we have traded options on 4 times over the past few months. All of the recommendations have been put options and have made our subscribers 172%, 144%, 29% and 6%. Shares are right near resistance again so let’s go see what the chart looks like inside the Members Area.
Tags: economic news, GOOG, option trading newsletter, YHOO
Posted in Google, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off