|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Tuesday, March 6th, 2012
1:15pm (EST)
We said March Madness would come early and that volatility would pick up in the market. Today’s weakness is all about the Greek debt situation, which is back in the front burner. There is a Thursday night deadline for Greece and its bondholders to come to an agreement over the debt bond swap in which the creditors would lose nearly 75% of their value on the bonds. It’s been nice not having to write about this situation for a few weeks but Greece is the word today.
We have spent a lot of time talking about the 5-week trading range we have been in and that there was a good chance this week that the market would move out of this range. We cited Wednesday’s Apple announcement of the iPad3 and Friday’s jobs figures as the two key events that would make or break the bulls push higher.
Often times when resistance is being tested, the indexes tend to overshoot these levels which we have been calling our “fluff” targets”. We said the Dow would move 1,000 points back in late November when the index was at 11,800 and we said the blue-chips would run into resistance at 12,800. We hit this mark in January. We also said if the Dow closed above this level there would be a chance at 13,000. If this level was cleared we said to watch for 13,250. To the downside, we said short-term support was at 12,900 and then 12,800 which is exactly where the Dow has been hovering. The index is currently down 193 points to 12,770.
We also said to look for a close above 1,375 for the S&P 500, which we haven’t gotten, and that if there were further weakness the bulls would need to hold 1,350. The index is down 20 points to 1,344 after opening at 1,363.63 which now bring 1,325-1,300 into the picture.
The Nasdaq is lower by 40 points to 2,910. Tech opened at 2,917and we said a dip below 2,925 would bring 2,900-2,850 into play. Here we are. Apple (AAPL, $529.07, down $4.09) is also lower and another clue we said to watch for.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 21.55, up 1.98) is up 14% and above 20 for the first time since mid-February. This was another clue we said to watch for in Sunday’s Weekly Wrap.
We said there may be an opportunity to add a NEW TRADE or two today and that is what we are doing. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and be sure to use limit orders to get the best fill prices.
Tags: Apple, iPad3, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Friday, March 2nd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market traded in another tight range on Thursday following the haymakers that were thrown during Wednesday’s session. Despite the panic displayed by many of the talking heads and Wall Street pros this week who have called for a lower market, the bulls come into today’s session with a slight lead for the week. Although the blue-chips are flat, the Nasdaq and S&P are showing decent gains.
The Russell 2000, which we cover in our Weekly Wrap and on Monday mornings, is worrying us a little and is down for the week but we are keeping an eye on this as well. The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 17.26, down 1.17) dropped like a rock, falling 6%, which favors the bulls. Today’s action could determine the winner because it is still close so let’s go see where we are at and what the bears need to do.
The Dow gained 23 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 12,980. The blue-chips traded up to 13,032 in the AM but fell to a low of 12,943 in the final hour of trading before rebounding. The index is up 2 points for the week as the bulls and bears have each won 2 sessions apiece.
The S&P jumped 8 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 1,374. The index clipped 1,376 at the open and faded but held positive territory all day long. The bulls have won 3 sessions this week and we would love to see a close above 1,380 but will settle for 1,375. A close below 1,365 would give the bears the win for the week.
The Nasdaq popped double-deuces (22 points), or 0.7%, to end at 2,989. Tech continues to dance with our 3,000 fluff target and kissed a high of 2,996. Although the index didn’t crack 3K, it is still up 26 ticks for the week which is almost 1%.
The Russell 2000 added 4 points, or 0.5%, to close at 815. The index traded up to 824 but continues to struggle with the 830 level. The index needs to gain a dozen points to finish in positive territory for the week.
We’ve been able to close a few more call option trades this week for some decent gains so let’s go see where we’re at. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Nasdaq market summary, Russell 2000, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, VIX | Comments Off
Tuesday, February 28th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The market finished flat after a rocky start as the bears pushed the major indexes lower by 1% on Monday’s open. Like last week, the market rebounded once the European markets closed as we were near even when Wall Street took its lunch break. Following a slight push towards resistance, the bulls were unable to hold their advance but they did take manage to win 2-out-of-3 battles.
The Dow fell a little over a point to finish at 12,981 after testing a low of 12,882. We have been mentioning support is trying to move up to 12,900, from 12,800 and the blue-chips reached a high of 13,027 before fading.
The S&P gained 2 points to end at 1,367 after touching a bottom of 1,354. The bulls stepped in as 1,350 held and were able to make a charge up to 1,371.92 but fell just short of our 1,375-1,400 fluff targets. The S&P hasn’t fallen more than 1% in more than 39 days and it’s been an exciting streak to watch. Of course, we hope we didn’t just jinx things with those comments but it shows just how powerful support has been.
The Nasdaq advanced nearly 3 points to settle at 2,966 after kissing another 52-week high of 2,976. Tech traded down to 2,933 to start Monday’s session but stayed above 2,900 as the bulls continue their attack on Nasdaq 3,000.
The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 18.18, up 0.75) jumped 5% and traded up to 19.25 but stayed below 20. Oil fell $2.04 to close at $107.73 a barrel while Gold slipped $8.70 and went out at $1,767.70 an ounce.
As far as stocks on the move today, look for some action in these names as all of them will be reporting earnings. Some are doing so as we type, other after the close: Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO, $27.62, down $0.15), Dreamworks Animation (DWA, $19.25, down $0.20), Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP, $24.98, down $0.15), Rosetta Resources (ROSE, $52.38, down $0.40), Scientific Games (SGMS, $12.07, down $0.02), ViroPharma (VPHM, $31.70, down $0.04), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI, $44.71, down $1.56)
We do have story for you today on Priceline.com (PCLN, $591.54, up $1.13) which was up big-time in after-hours last night. The stock is well above 6 bills ($600) and has come a long way since its 1-for-6 reverse stock-split 10 years ago. Can anybody guess what shares were going for on June 13, 2003? Check back at 1pm.
We have a lot to cover inside our Members Area so we will leave it on that note. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: CRZO, DWA, PCLN, SGMS
Posted in Earnings, VIX | Comments Off
Tuesday, February 14th, 2012
1:20pm (EST)
It’s been amazing to see the numbers of bears switching sides and Barron’s call for Dow 15,000 wasn’t too surprising, maybe somebody over there is doing some real homework for once.
Although we don’t do CNBC interviews, we’re sure they would have loved to have spoken to us back in December when we said the Dow would move 1,000 points and hit 12,800 in January.
We keep notes up at the office so that we can try to stay ahead of the market and that we have a clear plan in front of us for months and not just days or weeks. This helps keep our emotions in check and here have been our thoughts over the past 2 months:
From December 14, 2011 with the Dow at 11,823:
“We have been building our Watch List with both calls and puts and we are looking at January, February, April and June options. There is still a massive move coming and we will see the Dow at 11,000 or 13,000 come the end of January. We are still favoring calls because we are still bullish and the put options have gotten EXPENSIVE which is another reason we have sat on the sidelines.
We said in early November when the market reached resistance we could have a pullback and since then we have been in a 4-week trading range. This is exactly how the market acted in July and August before the huge rally back to the top.” (END)
From December 19, 2011 with the Dow at 11,766:
“There are 5 trading sessions left before Christmas is here and the market is closed next Monday. This means there are only 9 days left before the end of 2011. For you historian buffs, the market hasn’t had a losing pre-election year since 1939 so the bulls will be motivated to keep this streak alive. The other indexes have a little work to do but we saw some encouraging signs last week that still have us “bullish”. (END)
From our 12/26/2011 Weekly Wrap with the Dow at 12,294:
“We wanted to show the longer-term WEEKLY chart of the S&P Volatility Index (^VIX, 20.73, down 0.43) after we called the drop to 22.5 back in October. We said a couple of weeks ago the VIX appeared to be “decoupling” from Europe’s mess and the talking heads echoed the same thing last week which was old news. We also mentioned the VIX could fall into the teens with a rally thru January and we talked about how February is normally a bearish month. The bulls are safe for now but a decline in the market and a rising VIX above 25 would be early clues a pullback is coming.” (END)
We could include January but you get the picture. February always makes us nervous but our notes from December have been golden. We said to stay long thru January and last week was the first full week of February and we got the pullback.
We said yesterday the market could go “either way” this week and it will depend on what the European Union does with Greece. By no means is this a slam dunk for the country to get a second bailout and we don’t have to push things because our current trades are doing well, we have locked in half positions, and we have used longer-dated options to allow for some February “choppiness”.
We recently updated our longer-term targets for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq which we said won’t be achieved until our current upper-end targets are reached. After a couple weeks of testing, the indexes are right there and this could be the week we break through. However, if the bulls continue to struggle with resistance, expect a pullback before a strong rally resumes.
As we head to press, the Dow is down double-nickels, or 55 points, to 12,819 while the S&P is lower by 7 points to 1,344. The Nasdaq is off by 17 points to 2,913.
We have a lot to talk about inside our Members Area, including some thoughts on Zynga (ZNGA, $14.19, up $0.77), which announces earnings after the close. Our current trade is up 183% and we have already locked-in half profits so let’s go see how we play the other half. Subscribers, check for the updates and make sure you use limit orders for our NEW TRADE.
Tags: VIX, ZNGA, Zynga earnings
Posted in Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Friday, February 10th, 2012
12:30pm (EST)
The market hasn’t had a 1% pullback since December but that could all change by the closing bell.
Futures were weak throughout the night and were showing a 0.5% loss to start today’s session but they got progressively worse as we headed towards the open.
The situation with Greece continues to come down to the wire and it’s hard to imagine to us non-politicians why this has dragged on for so many months. The fact that Greece hasn’t paid back the FIRST bailout should be a clue that the country can’t pay back a second bailout.
All signs have been pointing towards Greece getting another lifeline but Germany and some of the few remaining triple-A countries are raising the red flags and want more guarantees and action.
The major indexes are off their lows but we would imagine they could be tested into the close as not too many investors will want to stay long over the weekend.
The Dow is down 109 points to 12,780 while the S&P is lower by 10 to 1,342. The Nasdaq is showing a decline of 19 points to 2,908.
The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 20.44, up 1.81) is up nearly 10% today and 20% for the week (see Weekly Wrap notes from Sunday) while Gold is down $20 to $1,721 an ounce.
We have put in another great week as we were able to close 5 more winning trades for gains of 83%, 200%, 50%, 4% and 79%. We did have one trade take a licking but they are March options and we are hoping they come back. This brings our closed winning closed trades to 23-1 for the year. Also, we took “half” profits in all but 5 of these trades and still counted them as ONE winner.
Our option trading competitors don’t like to trade their own accounts and they record “half or third profits” on winning trades 2 or 3 times. If we did that we could say our track record is 46-1 but we like posting real results and keeping our subscribers.
Even at 23-1, we seriously doubt other option newsletters have gotten off to the start we have. Our Weekly Wrap closed 7 winners in January and February could bring 5 more double-digit gains. This would get us to 35-1 for 2012 but we can’t count chickens before they hatch.
Do yourself a favor this weekend and compare our track record and results to anyone you like. You will see why we have become one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet. We also have auto-trading partners that verify our results and will do the trading for you, at no charge.
Unless the bulls make a comeback, the bears will win the week and our predication we made in early January for a pullback in the first full week of February could be right on point. We made our subscribers a bunch of cash by telling them to stay long until the end of January and the pullback, if it lasts, will give us another opportunity to let prices come back down so that we can play the next bullish run.
We said there might be an opportunity to buy some put options to play a temporary downside move but we don’t plan to load up on bearish positions because the longer-term trend is still bullish. We do, however, have one put option trade we have been watching for a couple of weeks that we would like to get into today. The stock has been moving like a puppet and we think we are getting a great opportunity to play a short-term trade to the downside.
We will be back Sunday night with our Weekly Wrap but let’s get to the Members Area for the NEW TRADE!
Our next Daily update will be out Monday morning so until then, have a great weekend, everyone. And make sure you request our updated track records or check the Members Area when you sign up.
Tags: Dow, Greece bailout, Greece budget, S&P 500, stock options trading advisors, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Bears Growl as S&P Falls Below 1,350
Tuesday, March 6th, 2012
1:15pm (EST)
We said March Madness would come early and that volatility would pick up in the market. Today’s weakness is all about the Greek debt situation, which is back in the front burner. There is a Thursday night deadline for Greece and its bondholders to come to an agreement over the debt bond swap in which the creditors would lose nearly 75% of their value on the bonds. It’s been nice not having to write about this situation for a few weeks but Greece is the word today.
We have spent a lot of time talking about the 5-week trading range we have been in and that there was a good chance this week that the market would move out of this range. We cited Wednesday’s Apple announcement of the iPad3 and Friday’s jobs figures as the two key events that would make or break the bulls push higher.
Often times when resistance is being tested, the indexes tend to overshoot these levels which we have been calling our “fluff” targets”. We said the Dow would move 1,000 points back in late November when the index was at 11,800 and we said the blue-chips would run into resistance at 12,800. We hit this mark in January. We also said if the Dow closed above this level there would be a chance at 13,000. If this level was cleared we said to watch for 13,250. To the downside, we said short-term support was at 12,900 and then 12,800 which is exactly where the Dow has been hovering. The index is currently down 193 points to 12,770.
We also said to look for a close above 1,375 for the S&P 500, which we haven’t gotten, and that if there were further weakness the bulls would need to hold 1,350. The index is down 20 points to 1,344 after opening at 1,363.63 which now bring 1,325-1,300 into the picture.
The Nasdaq is lower by 40 points to 2,910. Tech opened at 2,917and we said a dip below 2,925 would bring 2,900-2,850 into play. Here we are. Apple (AAPL, $529.07, down $4.09) is also lower and another clue we said to watch for.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 21.55, up 1.98) is up 14% and above 20 for the first time since mid-February. This was another clue we said to watch for in Sunday’s Weekly Wrap.
We said there may be an opportunity to add a NEW TRADE or two today and that is what we are doing. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and be sure to use limit orders to get the best fill prices.
Tags: Apple, iPad3, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, VIX
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off