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Thursday, May 2nd, 2013
9:00am (EST)
The bears erased the bulls’ gains for the week following Wednesday’s 1% drop across the board. The major indexes held near-term support after disappointing economic news and wishy-washy statements from the Fed.
The Dow dropped 139 points, or 0.9%, to close at 14,700. The blue-chips traded to a low of 14,687 and finished below the 14,800 level. This gets 14,600 back in play on further weakness and a close below this level would be bearish for a test down to 14,400. A close back above 14,800 keeps the current trend intact.
The S&P 500 slipped 15 points, or 0.9%, to settle at 1,582. The index held 1,575 after trading down to 1,581 but a break below this level would be troublesome. A rebound today above 1,590 will get the momentum back on the bulls’ side.
The Nasdaq gave back nearly 30 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 3,299. Tech traded down to 3,296 but was unable to hold the 3,300 level into the close. There is further risk down to 3,275-3,250 again if the bulls can’t clear 3,300 and push 3,325 today.
The Russell 2000 got punished for 23 points, or 2.5%, to end at 924. The small-caps went out at their lows for the session after falling below 940 and then 930. Not good. A dip below 920 could get nasty as there is risk down to 900 on a continued pullback.
Meanwhile, the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 14.49, up 0.97) jumped 7% and traded up 14.67. The VIX held 15 but we have warned about a close back above this level and anything above 17.50 could spark some panic selling.
Futures are favoring the bulls this morning and a higher open as we go to press: Dow (+90), S&P 500 (+10); Nasdaq (+22).
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Posted in Market Analysis, VIX | Comments Off
Wednesday, April 24th, 2013
9:00am (EST)
The Dow stretched its Tuesday winning streak to 15 as the bulls won their third-straight session while pushing resistance and the top of the current trading range. The gains on Tuesday’s have accounted for 70% of the blue-chips advance this year but yesterday’s pop was nearly wiped out in less than 2 minutes after an erroneous headline claimed there had been an attack on the White House.
The volatility came 30 minutes later following our midday update after a hacker gained access to the AP’s (Associated Press) Twitter account. The report said a bomb or explosion had occurred at headquarters and that the President was injured. We were watching the tape and started to scramble to find out why the market was plunging but the indexes had recovered by the time we figured out why. It was only a hiccup as the market quickly resumed its uptrend into the close.
The Dow gained 152 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 14,719. The blue-chips kissed a high of 14,721 but fell short of clearing the 14,800 mark that is current resistance. The dip to 14,554 after lunch knocked the index back 150 points for a loss of 13 but was quickly recovered on the false tweet.
The S&P 500 added 16 points, or 1%, to finish at 1,578. We mentioned a close above 1,575 would be bullish for another possible push to 1,600 and the high checked in at 1,579.58. The index held green all session long despite the afternoon dip back down to 1,566.
The Nasdaq jumped 36 points, or 1.1%, to end at 3,269. Tech made a run past 3,275 after reaching a peak 3,275.89 but was unable to hold this level into the close. We said there was a good chance 3,300 and new highs are tested on a close above this level but the 3,250 level still needs to be watched on any pullback. Yesterday’s drop from 3,270 to 3,247 on the false Twitter posting shows how touchy the market is to headline risk.
The Russell 2000 was up 14 points to 929 and easily cleared 920 in the process while the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 13.48, down 0.91) dropped 6%. We said yesterday morning a close below 13.50 on the VIX and over 920 on the small-caps would be golden for the bulls ahead of Apple’s (AAPL, $406.13, up $7.46) numbers which we will cover today in our midday update.
Shares reached an after-hours high of $425 but fell $3 on the unofficial close. As we head to press shares are at $392, down $17.
Futures are showing a mixed open and look like this: Dow (+11); S&P 500 (-1); Nasdaq 100 (-2). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Posted in Market Analysis, Strategies, VIX | Comments Off
Wednesday, March 13th, 2013
9:00am (EST)
The bulls fought hard to keep a few winning streaks going on Tuesday and were able to keep one but lost another. The Dow ended in positive territory before the close to extend its March winning streak to 8-straight sessions while the S&P 500 saw its streak of wins snapped at 7. The gains and losses were all minor as Wall Street searches for clues on the market’s next direction. Yesterday’s action may have been dull but fresh highs were still made and the action still favors the bulls as near-term support held.
The Dow gained 3 points, or 0.2%, to close at 14,450. The blue-chips traded up to 14,478 and another all-time high before slipping to 14,412 and rebounding. The index is just 50 points away from clearing our 14,500 target with short-term support coming in at 14,350.
The S&P fell nearly 4 points, or 0.2%, to settle at 1,552. The index made a fresh 5-year high of 1,556.77 but slipped to 1,548 late in the day before recovering a little to hold 1,550 by the close. There next 25 points represent support and resistance with the bears trying to get near 1,525 and the bulls trying to push all-time highs (1,576).
The Nasdaq dropped over 10 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 3,242. Tech was weak all day and tested 3,229 before bouncing off its lows. There wasn’t a lot of room to work with in holding 3,250 but the losses were somewhat contained and 3,225 held for the second-straight session.
The Russell 2000 declined 2 points, or 0.2%, to end at 940 while the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 12.27, up 0.71) advanced 6% to finish back above 12.
We wanted to highlight the major earnings announcements for the rest of the week:
Wednesday
Express (EXPR, $18.85, down $0.05), Guess’ (GES, $27.39, down $1.19), Hot Topic (HOTT, $13.84, flat), Men’s Wearhouse (MW, $29.17, down $0.27), TravelCenters of America (TA, $7.15, up $0.02), Tree.Com (TREE, $16.24, down $0.51), Vera Bradley (VRA, $24.67, up $0.28)
Thursday
Carmike Cinemas (CKEC, $15.39, down $0.11), Dynegy (DYN, $20.10, up $0.40), Ebix (EBIX, $15.59, up $0.10), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD, $14.63, down $0.10), Lifetime Brands (LCUT, $10.89, up $0.09), Buckle (BKE, $46.16, down $0.69), Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA, $87.19, down $2.63), Zumiez (ZUMZ, $22.54, down $0.42)
Friday
Brown Shoe (BWS, $17.66, up $0.09), Hibbett Sports (HIBB, $51.36, down $0.02)
While we probably won’t take a flyer on any of these names, we do believe ULTA could make a 5% move one way or the other, as well as MW. (all quotes are from Tuesday’s close)
With 4Q/2012 earnings winding down, the end of March is usually reserved for warnings or upping guidance. We know it’s early, but go ahead and circle April 8th on the calendar for the official 1Q kickoff for 2013 earnings.
Futures are improving after a better-than-expected Retail Sales as they came in at 1.1% versus expectations for a gain of 0.5%: Dow (+3); S&P 500 (+2); Nasdaq 100 (+2). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Posted in Earnings, VIX | Comments Off
Friday, March 1st, 2013
12:15pm (EST)
You don’t really need to find out what’s going on
You don’t really want to know just how far it’s gone
Just leave well enough alone
Eat your dirty laundry
Kick’em when they’re up
Kick’em when they’re down
Kick’em when they’re stiff
Kick’em all around
Some of the zombies are gathering today to try and avoid the sequester cuts that are set to take place once the head zombie signs off on the cutbacks but with most of the House taking off yesterday, we doubt any last minute deal gets passed when they are having their first meeting on the deadline. It is amazing how little gets done in DC and how little these knuckleheads really work considering they were off all last week. We know they typically take off every Friday and the zombies that are at the White House today are just there for picture taking and posturing.
We mentioned yesterday the odds favored the bears today and with yesterday’s last minute selloff at the close, it was almost a given today’s open would be lower. Of course, we still have the second half to go and there has been a rebound as the talking heads keep cheerleading for new highs but it appears as though the bears could bookend the week with losses if selling pressure reappears this afternoon.
The levels to watch for are Dow 14,000; S&P (500) 1,515; Nasdaq 3,161; Russell (2000) 916. If the markets closed at its current levels, the bulls would win the week but the bears are right there as today’s action has been choppy.
We said that the Dow has been a “defensive haven” over the past few weeks as it makes new highs while the other indexes have lagged. Not the perfect recipe for a bull market. We can’t wait to do the chart work this weekend as we are looking for them to provide us more clues on which way the market is headed over the near-term.
We will talk about the history of March and the market in the Weekly Wrap and it can be a volatile month. With the S&P Volatility 500 Index ($VIX, 15.94, up 0.43) popping above 15, this has been confirmed.
The market took a decent dip at the open but has since rebounded as we head into the second half of trading. We will be watching the action and there could be some late day Profit Alerts if we ring the register before the weekend so stay close to your email inbox.
The Dow is up 21 points to 14,075 to 14,041 while the S&P is higher by 2 points to 1,516. The Nasdaq is advancing 3 points to 3,163 while the Russell 200 is declining 3 points to 907 and could be a tell.
We have some last minute updates for our current trades, including some takeover chatter for one of our biotech plays, before we roll so let’s get to it. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the Daily. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
Thursday, February 28th, 2013
9:00am (EST)
The bulls added another notch to their “new high” belt as they were able to push the Dow to a fresh 5-year peak on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is the last of the major indexes that hasn’t hit multi-year highs. Positive economic news and more Fed speak helped fuel the rally that has now recovered Monday’s steep losses.
The Dow zoomed 175 points, or 1.3%, to settle at 14,075. The blue-chips traded to a high of 14,104 and are just over a 100 points away from all-time highs. We have been saying the Dow could trade to 14,200 and a close above this level would be good for a push to 14,500. The bears will try to reclaim the 14,000 level in today’s session and will need a 0.5% effort to stop the bleeding. (continued…)
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Posted in Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off
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More Dirty Laundry
Friday, March 1st, 2013
12:15pm (EST)
You don’t really need to find out what’s going on
You don’t really want to know just how far it’s gone
Just leave well enough alone
Eat your dirty laundry
Kick’em when they’re up
Kick’em when they’re down
Kick’em when they’re stiff
Kick’em all around
Some of the zombies are gathering today to try and avoid the sequester cuts that are set to take place once the head zombie signs off on the cutbacks but with most of the House taking off yesterday, we doubt any last minute deal gets passed when they are having their first meeting on the deadline. It is amazing how little gets done in DC and how little these knuckleheads really work considering they were off all last week. We know they typically take off every Friday and the zombies that are at the White House today are just there for picture taking and posturing.
We mentioned yesterday the odds favored the bears today and with yesterday’s last minute selloff at the close, it was almost a given today’s open would be lower. Of course, we still have the second half to go and there has been a rebound as the talking heads keep cheerleading for new highs but it appears as though the bears could bookend the week with losses if selling pressure reappears this afternoon.
The levels to watch for are Dow 14,000; S&P (500) 1,515; Nasdaq 3,161; Russell (2000) 916. If the markets closed at its current levels, the bulls would win the week but the bears are right there as today’s action has been choppy.
We said that the Dow has been a “defensive haven” over the past few weeks as it makes new highs while the other indexes have lagged. Not the perfect recipe for a bull market. We can’t wait to do the chart work this weekend as we are looking for them to provide us more clues on which way the market is headed over the near-term.
We will talk about the history of March and the market in the Weekly Wrap and it can be a volatile month. With the S&P Volatility 500 Index ($VIX, 15.94, up 0.43) popping above 15, this has been confirmed.
The market took a decent dip at the open but has since rebounded as we head into the second half of trading. We will be watching the action and there could be some late day Profit Alerts if we ring the register before the weekend so stay close to your email inbox.
The Dow is up 21 points to 14,075 to 14,041 while the S&P is higher by 2 points to 1,516. The Nasdaq is advancing 3 points to 3,163 while the Russell 200 is declining 3 points to 907 and could be a tell.
We have some last minute updates for our current trades, including some takeover chatter for one of our biotech plays, before we roll so let’s get to it. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the Daily. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, VIX | Comments Off