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Archive for the ‘Trading Psychology’ Category

Wall Street Braces for Fed Minutes/ Profit Alert (APOL)!!!

Wednesday, April 9th, 2014

11:10am (EST)

Although 1Q earnings season is underway, today’s focus will be on the Fed with the latest FOMC minutes being released at 2pm (EST).  After the close, there will be additional zombie talk from both the dovish and hawkish side with Wall Street looking for additional insight into the Fed’s outlook.

There were a couple of earnings trades we have targeted for the week but the list of candidates wasn’t too impressive.  Finding an option trade around earnings is always a fun and rewarding challenge but there are numerous factors in deciding if you should buy call or put options to play an up or down move in a stock.

Past earnings action, chart work, fundamentals, sentiment, liquidity, and option pricing all play a role in deciding which candidates make our Watch List.  These option trades can easily make 100% or more if a stock moves up or down 5%-10% but the pricing has to be right.  High-beta stocks usually carry expensive premiums with wide bid/ask prices so it’s best not to overpay and to realize the profit potential before entering a trade.

The earnings playbook for next week is absolutely loaded with juicy candidates as we have already started the research.  There are a number of possible call and put option trades we are looking at and we plan to be very active as our portfolio is light.

Even better, the recent trades we have opened continue to show strong gains, including one from Monday that has just tripped a 122% return – in 2 days!

We want to lock-in profits on a quarter of a position so we are going to press a little early today.  We could also be adding New Trades or have additional Profit Alerts so monitor your email inboxes throughout the day or follow us on Twitter to know the moment we take action.

As far as the indexes, the Dow is up 34 points to 16,290 while the S&P 500 is gaining 2 points to 1,854.  The Nasdaq is advancing 15 points to 4,128 and the Russell 2000 is higher by 3 points to 1,147.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates and stay locked-and-loaded into the close!

Never Short a Dull Market/ Profit Alert (WWE)/ New Trade!!!

Wednesday, March 12th, 2014

1:40pm (EST)

Although we penciled-in some downside action this week, it remains to be seen if the bears’ latest fight turns into a brawl or another whimper.  We have talked about some of the bearish signs that have appeared this week but also said the damage has been minimal as the bulls continue to hold support (and the VIX).

As much as the talking heads and slick talking pros have said the market needs a 5%-10% pullback, we have mentioned we still see another 1%-2% upside potential and that a mini-trading range could develop until the next leg higher (or lower).

These types of environments can be frustrating and another reason why it’s not wise to short a dull market.  If and when the 10% slide comes, we will be ready for it, but in the meantime it remains “a stock picker’s market”.

We have done well avoiding the pitfalls of overtrading and being impatient as we said February is always a tricky month to trade and that March could be volatile.

We have been mostly long call options since the beginning of last year and while we did nibble on a few put options at the beginning of February, we are 27-8 for all of our closed trades.  Our Daily Portfolio is showing a gain of 154% and our Weekly Wrap is pushing profits of nearly 30%.

We have used “cheap” options for much of the year and by that we mean most of the premiums we have paid to place a trade have been under $1.  When there is a clear trend, we will pay up to $2 for nearer-term options.

We do this to reduce our risk.  Options that are priced higher than $2 can have big drawdowns if you losses are capped at 50% and there is major volatility.  Under the same assumptions, this is also 3 or 4 “cheaper” option trades if you are buying 50-75 cent options.  By doing chart work and homework, we usually don’t carry 50% stops on options under $1 because you can get “stopped out” of a lot of good trades by falling into this type of portfolio management.

We have mentioned our new subscribers keep tabs on other major options newsletters because they tell us how frustrated they were before they found us.  Most option newsletters don’t have Track Records and most of them don’t take their own trades.

We don’t roll that way and why we keep our people as we continue to grow.  We work hard to get our results and we care more about making you money than providing useless trades with no accountability.  This is what a lot of the bigger boys do and why they care more about their numbers than yours.

We do have another New Trade today on a stock that is a current recommendation for our Weekly Wrap as well.  Shares are pushing 52-week highs again and are the verge of a blue-sky breakout.

Shares are just south of $6 and could be headed to $8 by late April.  If so, the call options we are targeting could return upwards of 350%.  The current price on the option is 55 cents and they could be worth $2.50 if our Price Target of $8 triggers.  There is heavy action in the trade so it is very liquid and the bid/ask is just a penny spread.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 36 points to 16,314 while the S&P 500 is off 4 points to 1,863.  The Nasdaq is higher by 3 points to 4,310 and the Russell 2000 is up a point to 1,188.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the New Trade and current updates!

Breaking News!!!  Our World Wrestling Federation (WWE, $29.76, down $0.04) call option trade has officially been closed for a 203% return as we were stopped out of the remaining quarter of the March 30 calls (WWE140322C00030000, $1.40, down $0.30).

Groupon (GRPN) Beats but Lowers Guidance/ Profit Alert (HRB)!!!

Friday, February 21st, 2014

1:30pm (EST)

Shares of Groupon (GRPN, $8.23, down $2.05) are down 20% today following the company’s earnings announcement after Thursday’s close.  Groupon reported 4Q earnings of $0.04 a share on revenue of $768 million.  The suit-and-ties were looking for 2 pennies a share on sales of $718 million.

We had the stock on our Watch List from last week into yesterday and said $11 or $9 would come into play on the announcement.  We had call options listed but we didn’t like how shares were trading going into the news although we knew there would be a good chance for a beat.

The stock was down 11% to $9-and change in after-hours and the losses have stuck like Chuck with shares now in the $8′s.  We probably should have listed some put options as this would have been a GREAT strangle option trade but we stayed on the sidelines so no damage was done.

The February 9 puts (GRPN140222P00009000, $0.75, up $0.57) are up 316% and the March 9 puts (GRPN140322P00009000, $1.05, up $0.59) are up 128%.

The reason shares are down despite a sweet quarter is due to the company’s warning of “one-time costs” related to the integration of their recent takeovers.  The biggest and best of the batch was its acquisition of Ticket Monster.

We have talked about turnaround plays on a few companies in recent weeks and while it is important to report back-to-back solid quarters, it is equally important to guide in-line or higher.  The break below the 200-day MA (moving average) was bearish and there is further risk to $8.  A break below this level could get nasty but if support holds there could be a rebound as the company is growing revenues.

The bulls are on track for their second-straight week of gains providing the market holds its current gains into the close.  The Dow is up 24 points to 16,157 while the S&P 500 is gaining 4 points to 1,843.  The Nasdaq is higher by 10 points to 4,278 and has cleared 4,275.  The Russell 2000 is advancing 5 points to 1,167.

We have been busy today with our current plays as we locked-in profits on 2 more Weekly Wrap trades.  We also have the opportunity to ring the register on a profitable trade for our Daily ahead of the weekend that is up 42%.  Going into next week, we have room to add up to 3-5 New Trades for our Daily and 2-3 for our Weekly Wrap.  However, we also have the luxury to wait for the next trend to develop as our Portfolios are light and we don’t need to rush the action.  We talked about the possibility of a trading range developing as well.

While other Wall Street pro and money managers are struggling to show a return for the year, we have gotten off to a phenomenal start.  Our Daily Portfolio is up 138% while our Weekly Wrap Portfolio is showing a a profit of 37% for all closed trades.  If you are NOT a subscriber you can email our support team to get both Track Records for 2014 (and past years).  Current subscribers get our updated portfolios through email.

We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and more possible earnings trades for next week along with the Daily on Monday morning.  Until then have a great weekend everyone!

Bulls Stall at Resistance

Tuesday, February 11th, 2014

9:00am (EST)

We mentioned Monday could be flat as Wall Street waffled on what Fed Chair Janet Yellen might say today.  To no surprise, the indexes finished right at the resistance targets we outlined and bets will be made today on where the market heads from here. (continued…)


Our 5 biggest winning recommendations in 2013:

+364% JC Penney (JCP) put options
+300% Solazyme (SZYM) call options
+263% Regeneron (REGN) call options
+201% Salesforce (CRM) call option
+206% Goodyear Tire call options

We had 27 triple-digit winners and 23 (50%+) on 217 trades.

Our 5 biggest winning recommendations in 2012:

+575% Green Mountain puts
+500% Taser call options
+475% American Express call options
+464% Arena call options
+292% Capital One calls
We had 31 triple-digit winners and 17 (70%+) on 199 trades

Our 5 biggest winning recommendations in 2011:
+1,167% Rambus option trade
+357% RIMM option play
+296% Freeport option trade
+19% O’Reilly
+184% Goldman Sachs
We had 21 triple-digit winners and 12 (70%+) on 154 trades

Our 5 biggest winning recommendations in 2010:
+525% Adobe call options
+297% Akamai Tech
+190% Nike call play
+177% Best Buy option trade
+150% Green Mountain
We had 19 triple-digit winners and 6 (70%+) on 115 trades

Our 5 biggest winning recommendations in 2009:
+1150% RIMM option play
+552% Google call options
+556% RIMM option trade
+567% Bank of America
+335% IBM call options
We had 79 triple-digit winners and 19 (70%+) on 238 trades

Our 5 biggest winning recommendations in 2008:
+1,057% Google call options
+867% AIG put options
+588% Budweiser takeover play
+400% Chipotle Mexican Grill
+347 Merck option play
We had 65 triple-digit winners and 13 (70%+) on 142 trades

We are off to a great start for 2014 (15-1) and we believe this year could be one of the most lucrative years ever to trade options as volatility will only increase.  The recent downtrend has investors worried but playing a market correction is the same as trading the market when it is rallying.

Our top winning recommendations in 2014 so far have been short of jaw-dropping to say the least:

+817% Galen Biopharma (GALE) call options
+183% Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) calls
+103% Aruba Networks call options is 15-1 for all of our stock option recommendations for 2014.  Enter your can email address to get a copy of our Track Records.

Watch These Numbers

Wednesday, January 8th, 2014

9:00am (EST)

The bulls rebounded on Tuesday to nearly get back to even for the first five days of trading in January and today’s action will be decide who the winner is between the bulls and bears.  The Dow needs to clear 16,576; the S&P 500 needs to get past 1,848; the Nasdaq needs to finish above 4,176; and the Russell 2000 needs to be above 1,163 for the bulls to pull off the update.  With today’s Fed minutes due out there is a good chance for a 1% move so lets go see where the indexes finished at as we head towards the opening bell this morning. (continued…)

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    The portfolios can be found in the Members Area as well as past portfolios from 2008-2011. Overall, we are 621-273 on nearly 900 real-time recommendations that equals a success rate of 70%. This means, on average, 7-out-of-10 of our option trade recommendations make you money and we hope to have an even better success rate for 2013.

    If you are missing these juicy profits, come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2012 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box below.

Trader Comments:
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel


    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony


    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob

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