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Bulls Get Healthier

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

12:45pm (EST)

The bulls continue their March towards new highs (no pun intended) as the President signs our nation’s new health bill today. The passage of the landmark legislation is now official and many of the changes will take place this year.

Obama said it gets the wheels rolling on ”desperately needed reforms” sought by generations of Americans. He also said America can afford this bill so we shall see.

In economic news, existing home sales fell less than expected as the National Association of Realtors reported sales of previously occupied homes fell 0.6% last month to an annual rate of 5.02 million units. Wall Street had expected sales would fall to 5 million.

Despite some turbulence, the Dow is flying higher and is up 44 points to 10,830. The S&P 500 is up 3 points to 1,168 while the Nasdaq is enjoying a 6 point pop and is at 2,402.

Folks, if we can hold these levels, we could be setting our sights and our next set of targets for the indexes we have been mentioning all week. We would list them but you already know the deal if you have been following us.

Turning to earnings, Walgreen’s (WAG, $35.74, up $0.31) is getting a slight nudge higher despite reporting numbers that failed to match expectations. The company reported a profit of $669 million, or $0.68 a share, versus $640 million, or $0.65 a share, in the year earlier period.

WAG032310

Sales rose 3% to $17 billion but Wall Street was looking for Walgreen to earn $0.71 a share on $17.2 billion in revenue. Although they missed, Walgreen’s earnings matched depressed expectations and gross margins came in better-than-expected which is why shares are seeing a little bump.

We have a lot to discuss in our Members Area and a few of our trades are making explosive moves today to the good. We also have a NEW trade that we will be going after so let’s get to it!

Tags: option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading, WAG, Walgreen's earnings
Posted in Earnings, Market Commentary, Stock Earnings | Comments Off

Garmin Tanks On Lower Margins

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

12:35pm (EST)

The market is trying to rebound from a two-day slide and has held up well after hearing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tell Congress that low interest rates are still needed to support the economy. He also added that interest rates will probably remain low for an extended period to allow more time for an economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said sales of new homes fell to a record low in January as Wall Street had been expecting an increase. New home sales fell a whopping 11.2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 309,000 units versus a forecast of 360,000. This was the lowest level on a record in nearly 50 years.

The Department of Energy released its inventory report which showed a larger than expected build up of crude oil, but a larger than expected draw down of gasoline.

As a result, the Dow is currently up 85 points to 10,367. The Nasdaq is higher by 22 points and is at 2,236 while the S&P is up 9 points to 1,103..

In earnings news, Garmin (GRMN, $31.99, down $2.46) is getting a haircut despite beating Wall Street’s estimates.

GRMN - 60 Minute Chart

The company earned $278 million, or $1.38 a share versus $158 million, or $0.78 a share, during the year ago period. More importantly, Garmin also said it sees its NuviFone operating margins to be slightly negative in 2010.

We have mentioned Garmin often in this space over the last few months and yesterday we profiled an earnings trade to take advantage on a possible move lower. We knew the company would beat estimates but like we told our readers yesterday, Garmin is the next Blockbuster (BBI/B, $0.26, down $0.03).

Garmin has made a niche for itself in the navigation field but there is just too much better and cheaper competition that continues to eat away at the company’s margins. Here is what we said yesterday in our Members Area:

“Garmin reports earnings on Wednesday and we have talked about Garmin in the past. A recent stroll in our neighborhood showed the latest Garmin devices selling at 50% discounted prices and there were a TON of them. It looked liked the same display that has been up at Christmas…

The company is in a dying business as simple, easier ways of navigation are now available. Google and Nokia said they will offer free turn-by-turn navigation on mobile phones and we are sure other applications will continue to be far cheaper than Garmin’s products.”

Current subscribers who acted on those comments are up 75%-100% today on a put option trade. Yes, earnings trades are risky but if you can read the hidden message before a company reports then you have a chance at a pretty good payday.

We have updated all of our trades, including Garmin, so please check the Members Area NOW…

Tags: option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Option Trades, Stock Earnings, Trading Psychology | Comments Off

MomentumOptionsTrading.com Weekly Wrap for 2/21/10

Sunday, February 21st, 2010

Bulls Make Another Run

8:00pm(EST)

The futures were pointing towards a nasty opening for the market early Friday morning but things got better as the bulls starting rising with the sun.

Thursday’s surprise discount rate hike by the Fed after the market closed scared the be-Jesus out of everyone as the Asian markets tanked and the Dow futures were down 90 shortly after midnight. However, the Fed may have done the bulls a big favor as they were able to take the market higher for the fifth day in a row.

We rarely talk about the specific indexes of the foreign markets but we often watch the action as they can and do have an effect on our markets. Hong Kong’s stock market is known as the Hang Seng and it tanked 2.6% on our Fed news and closed at 19,894, down 528 points, on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.1%, or 212 points, and closed at 10,123.

A 2% drop in the Dow would have crushed the current rally but the Fed news was softened by the fact that the market had all night and some of the morning to figure out this really wasn’t a big deal. A better-than-expected consumer prices report also gave the bulls a lift.

The Dow traded in a narrow range for most of the day and ended at 10,402, up 9 points. The S&P and Nasdaq hit a “double-deuce” as each index gained 2 points and closed at 1,109 and 2,243, respectively.

It was a great week for the bulls as the Dow added 303 points, or 3%, and closed above 10-4 for the first time in over a month. It was also the Dow’s biggest weekly point and percentage gain since the start of November.

The S&P 500 was up 34 points last week, or 3.1%, and closed above the all important 1,100 level.

Finally, the Nasdaq jumped 60 points for the week, or 2.8%, and settled above 2,200 for the first time in a month.

We are back in that “upper” trading range we have been talking about for weeks and months which for the Dow are between 9,700 and 10,700. Once again, the targets we set back in August will now come into play again and they are at 1,175 for the S&P 500 and for the Nasdaq our target is 2,275. For the Dow, we have a target of 10,800.

The S&P traded 1,150; the Dow hit a high of 10,767; and the Nasdaq reached 2,326…all by mid-January which brings us to our next point.

The market was an easy read in 2008 as the Dow collapsed from 13,338 to a low of 7,392 by November. The Nasdaq fell from a high of 2,661 to a low of 1,295 by October of that year. Folks, that is a 50% haircut.

In 2009, the Dow rebounded off a low of 7,856 to a high of 10,605 while the Nasdaq soared from 1,476 to a high of 2,295. As you can see, this basically amounts to 50% gains which shows us two things.

In 2008, it was easier to trade put options and make money on the way down. Our track record shows this. In 2009, we mainly recommended call options. As we release our results for 2010 for all of our closed trades you will see our track record is around 60% for our trades.

It’s possible to make a good living if you hit 60% of your trades but we are more accustomed to hitting over 70% of our trades. The good news is that we aren’t ashamed of hitting 60% of our trades but we wanted to show you the “transition” the market is currently going through.

We saw this in mid-January when the market was approaching our targets and we knew we would either “breakout” or “retreat” from current levels. We still trade, regardless of market conditions, but we protected ourselves by going out to May, June and September with some of our call options trades. We have also used put options this year because when the market is this choppy and with this volatile, you need protection.

Even better news, is that there will be a pure play on the trend over the next few months as we think the volatility continues. We still think there is a chance the bulls push through our targets but we wouldn’t be surprised at all if we touch those targets and fade. If the market fades again, then the bears will take center stage.

As far as our portfolio, we are trying to preach these market conditions but IT IS a tougher market to trade and we do not send out trades just to grow our subscriber base. In fact, many of you know we will be limiting our membership to 1,000 subscribers because we don’t want to be like other option newsletters. One of our recent subscribers said that he was with another service which sent out 14 straight losing trades from mid-January up until now. The problem was his service dropped coverage of the trades and never responded to his emails about the current trades. Folks, we don’t roll that way.

We thought we would take some time to talk about the current market conditions and the trading atmosphere we are in to give you a better perspective on things. That said, we remain extremely excited because the current volatility will continue to offer us some fat trading opportunities but there will be risks.

Looking ahead to this week, we have a number of events that will be headwinds for the market.

Toyota’s (TM, $73.35, down $0.09) President changed his mind and will testify at a congressional hearing on Wednesday about the company’s recent recalls. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee is investigating Toyota’s recall of more than 8.5 million vehicles for gas-pedal and sudden-acceleration problems.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be in front of Congress again on Wednesday and Thursday to give his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

There will be some economic news the market will have to digest as well. The government will release new homes sales data for the month of January on Wednesday, while the National Association of Realtors will report its data for existing home sales on Friday.

We will be back in the morning with a fresh outlook and a complete update for all of the current trades. We are also looking at a number of stocks that we will be adding to our Watch List.

As we head to press, Dow futures are up 26 points…

Tags: option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock market summary, stock options trading, Toyota Motors
Posted in Company Commentary, Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades, Stock Earnings, Strategies, Trading Psychology, Trading Tips, Watch Lists, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off

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No fancy spreads. No iron condors. No need to watch the markets all day long.

REGINA L.
I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

STEVE T.
Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

SCOTT H.
Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

PETER G.
Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

LAWRENCE O.
Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

C.J.
Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

SHAUN
Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

MICHAEL K.
I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

PARAG P.
Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

JAY P.
Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

MIKE
Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

TRISH D.
Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

MIN L.
Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

JOE G.
Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

GREG F.
Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

NOEL
I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

TODD F.
Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

PAUL H.
What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

NOEL
“Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

CHRISTIAN
“Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

JOHN
“I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

CHARLES M.
“I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

BRYAN C.
“I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

JOHN H.
“I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

JEFFREY
“Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

ED
“I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

GREG
“Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

KEN
“Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

GARETT
“Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

TERENCE
“Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

Archive for the ‘Stock Earnings’ Category

Bulls Get Healthier

Garmin Tanks On Lower Margins

MomentumOptionsTrading.com Weekly Wrap for 2/21/10