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Friday, February 5th, 2010
1:20pm (EST)
The market is trending lower once again despite the ”surprise” unemployment rate numbers from the Labor Department this morning. The Dow is well below the 10,000 level and appears headed for its fourth-straight weekly loss.
The bulls got excited when they heard the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January to 9.7% from 10%, as Wall Street had pegged a number of 10.1%. That was the good news. The bad news was employers cut 20,000 jobs, more than the 5,000 expected.
As a result, the Dow is down 74 points, or -0.7%, and is currently at 9,928. The S&P 500 is off by 8 to 1,055 while the Nasdaq is getting clipped for a 6 points and stands at 2,120.
Just when we said we needed to see more M&A activity…Air Products and Chemicals (APD, $68.14, down $5.55) has made a $5 billion bid for Airgas (ARG, $60.27, up $16.74) and is willing to go “hostile”, if need be. Shares of Airgas are up 38% but the February 50 calls (ARGBJ, $10.20, up $10.15) (ARG100220C00050000) are up 20,000%. Ah yeah…we wish we would have gotten you in that trade yesterday.
The stock is trading above the offered price of $60 a share which could signal that a higher bid may be needed to get the deal done. A merger would create one of the biggest industrial gas companies in the world and this is the third time Air Products has made an offer as the other two were shot down.
Air Products already knows it may have to dig deeper in its coffers.
If you will notice, we included two different option symbols to reflect the upcoming changes that are going to be taking place in the option pits. With 20+ inches of snow coming our way, we will have no excuse for not getting this information out to you this weekend.
We are old school and we hate to see the change but it should make option trading easier and you really don’t need to worry about all those confusing numbers. We are going to break it down for you on how they work but don’t sweat it.
As we look forward to earnings next week, Hasbro (HAS, $30.73, down $0.53) could be in-play before the market opens on Monday. Wall Street is looking for the company to report a profit of $0.82 cents a share on revenue of $1.3 billion. As far as the options, it looks like put volume is outpacing the call options but traders could be selling the puts as well.
Our checks indicate that the company had a great quarter and they could surprise Wall Street by a few cents. That might not mean anything given the current market environment as the stock could sell-off despite an earnings beat.
We have updated our current trades before we head out and make sure to look for a complete portfolio update over the weekend as well as the options symbol review in the Members Area. When we post them, we will be sure to send out an email.
Tags: APD, ARG, HAS, Hasbro, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Mergers and Acquisitions, Sectors, Trading Psychology | Comments Off
Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010
12:40pm (EST)
The bulls are treading water today as the Dow is currently down 46 points to 10,250. After consecutive days of triple-digit gains the market is pulling back slightly as both the bulls and bears look ahead to Friday’s unemployment report.
The S&P 500 is also trading lower and is at 1,095, down 7 points while the Nasdaq is off by 6 to 2,184.
Wall Street will be watching Cisco Systems (CSCO, $22.91, down $0.11) after the closing bell today as the company reports earnings. The pencil pushers are looking for a profit of 35 cents a share on revenue of $9.4 billion. The company is famous for beating earnings by a penny but we are looking for hints about what Cisco has to say for the rest of 2010.
First Solar (FSLR, $118.25, up $0.88) is looking like it could be ready to pop or drop. Shares trade to a low of $109.77 on 1/22 which may have been a bottom or the sign of a further drop. The sector has fallen out of favor recently but things could be picking up. We are hearing good things about the sector although the Street has pushed them aside for the time being.
Special Announcement: We have started a NEW section today in our Members Area as we work on the finishing touches of our trading manual. We talk about “Watch Lists” all the time and we thought it might be beneficial if we added possible trades that we are looking at. With options, timing is everything and we always have 5-10 active trades we follow that we are just waiting for the right entry point before we release them.
These trades will NOT be recommendations until certain events happen OR we list a limit price to buy a certain option. We have some room for some new trades and hopefully his will help you see how we find trades. Once the manual is complete you should be on your way to becoming your own option trader if you choose to do so. We have also included the NEW option symbols for each trade we are watching.
Many of you have asked for something like this and your comments and suggestions are always welcomed. Keep them coming…
Tags: option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Commentary, Sectors | Comments Off
Sunday, January 24th, 2010
10:00pm (EST)
The market continued its sell-off on Friday as the Dow dropped another 216 points to close at 10,172. The bears woke up on Wednesday from a long rest and have caused panic and fear for some investors. The Dow’s 550 point drop in 3 days marked its worst week since March 2008.
Perhaps the biggest bomb was dropped by the President who seems to have a personal vendetta against the financial companies. We kept quiet on the subject but we really think Washington is picking the wrong battles. Instead, they should concentrate on “shovel-ready” projects that will bring unemployment back below 10%.
The market’s decline has been broad-based and Friday’s drop can be attributed to Ben Bernanke not possibly getting a second term as Fed chairman. His gig expires at the end of the month and now there is serious doubt he gets the 60 votes he needs.
The S&P 500 fell 25 points and closed at 1,091 while the Nasdaq tanked 60 points, or 2.7%, to finish at 2,205.
A week ago right here in this space we said there was chance we get a 5%-10% and we got the 5%. We still think there is some weakness in the market but we are expecting one last rally by the bulls.
As we head to press the futures have turned around as the overseas markets get ready to trade in a few hours. Dow futures are up 42 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are up 6. The heart of earnings season will hit this week and if you look at the list below there will be some action (quotes are from Friday’s close):
Monday: (Before the bell) AK Steel Holding (AKS, $20.19, down $1.03), Eaton (ETN, $65.88, down $0.86), Halliburton (HAL, $31.15, down $1.38)
(After the bell) Amgen (AMGN, $56.60, down $0.03), Apple (AAPL, $197.75, down $10.32), Jacobs Engineering (JEC, $39.66, down $0.24), VMware (VMW, $41.58, down $2.36)
Tuesday: (Before the bell) Baker Hughes (BHI, $44.27, down $2.36), Corning (GLW, $18.56, down $1.05), DuPont (DD, $32.50, down $0.65), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, $63.20, down $0.77), Peabody Energy (BTU, $45.10, down $0.60), Sherwin-Williams (SHW, $58.00, down $0.61), Travelers Companies (TRV, $48.31, down $0.64), Wynn Resorts (WYNN, $63.95, down $1.42)
(After the bell) Callaway Golf (ELY, $8.25, down $0.10), DeVry (DV, $56.88, up $0.42), Gilead Sciences (GILD, $46.08, up $0.30), QLogic (QLGC, $19.19, down $0.50), Yahoo (YHOO, $15.88, down $0.32)
Wednesday: (Before the bell) Abbott Laboratories (ABT, $54.51, down $1.05), BlackRock (BLK, $225.00, down $5.24), ConocoPhillips (COP, $50.60, down $1.64), Piper Jaffray (PJC, $46.20, down $1.80), Valero Energy (VLO, $18.18, down $0.72)
(After the bell) Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $81.16, up $1.24), Harris (HRS, $45.78, down $1.46), Qualcomm (QCOM, $46.78, down $1.31), WellPoint (WLP, $65.10, down $0.40)
Thursday: (Before the bell) 3M Company (MMM, $81.48, down $1.22), Altria Group (MO, $19.71, down $0.18), AT&T (T, $25.39, down $0.28), Colgate-Palmolive (CL, $80.71, up $1.64), Eli Lilly (LLY, $35.52, down $0.59), Ford Motor (F, $10.52, down $0.66), Lockheed Martin (LMT, $75.58, down $1.40), Nokia (NOK, $12.72, down $0.18), Potash (POT, $109.05, down $3.59), Time Warner Cable (TWC, $43.84, down $1.04), Under Armour (UA, $26.63, down $0.71)
(After the bell) Amazon.com (AMZN, $121.43, down $5.19), Genworth Financial (GNW, $12.41, down $0.49), Juniper Networks (JNPR, $24.95, down $1.17), Microsoft (MSFT, $28.96, down $1.05), Rambus (RMBS, $24.74, up $0.72), SanDisk (SNDK, $28.39, down $0.97), Stanley (SXE, $27.74, up $0.14)
Friday: (Before the bell) Arch Coal (ACI, $24.80, down $0.51), Honeywell (HON, $39.88, down $0.85), Mattel (MAT, $19.95, down $0.63)
(After the bell) Horizon Lines (HRZ, $6.17, down $0.03)
This will be an important week for the bulls and we don’t expect them to go away quietly. We said back in December there could be an “epic battle” between the two sides and so far we have been dead-on with our market analysis. We have used caution to establish some long-termer term option plays and we have some insurance in our portfolio for protection.
If the market does continue lower there will be some incredible opportunities to buy put options on stocks that are overbought. Some of the high-flying stocks have already been clipped and there is plenty of downside to go if they are going to correct.
We will be back in the AM with the trade updates and the morning outlook.
Tags: option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Earnings, Sectors, Stock Earnings, Strategies, Trading Psychology, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off
Saturday, January 23rd, 2010
5:00pm (EST)
Quick note for our current subscribers…
We have updated our 2010 portfolio in the Members Area today.
We have received lots of emails over the last few days as many of you are nervous of a pending market correction. The Dow lost another 216 points on Friday to finish at 10,172 as the selling pressure continued into the closing bell.
The Dow reached a high 10,763 on Tuesday and the 600 point drop from the high has meant a 5% correction. Are we nervous? Not at all.
In fact a week ago we had this to say:
“We have mentioned our targets for the indexes and from our camp it looks like the market is nearing a top which makes it harder to trade. It’s possible we rally for a few more weeks but once we get to February we think there’s a chance of a 5%-10% pullback.” (END)
Well, we got the 5% decline and next week we may get the other 5% decline.
As we enjoy the weekend, Dow futures are down 187; S&P 500 futures are lower by 20 while the Nasdaq futures are off by 43. Folks, if these figures hold up then we could have a major sell-off on Monday.
We have protected our portfolio by going way out in our call options and we have a current put option open that could do very well if the market does continue lower.
A lot of investors get nervous when the markets tanks or starts to correct but we love it. We’re like a chameleon, we change colors. Folks, if the market is in correction mode then you can make just as much money on the downside as you can on the way up. We still expect some kind of bounce but that may not come until the bears are done pushing.
For instance, we talked about the weakness in Goldman Sachs (GS, $154.12, down $6.75) on Thursday and Friday it dropped another $3 from our 1pm update. Some options traders did well buying Goldman put options. The February 150 puts (GPYNJ, $4.59, up $2.44) jumped over 110% on Friday.
We show you this stuff because you can make just as much with put options as you can call options. So, if the market is going to tank, don’t be nervous. The opportunity the volatility is providing right now is incredible.
There will be a ton of action next week and we will be back Sunday night with a full review of what to expect in the Weekly Wrap. Also, don’t forget to check out our money management video if you haven’t seen it yet.
If you want to see some of the returns you can make in a down market, check out our 2008 portfolio which can be downloaded as a PDF file. For those of you who don’t follow the market, we had a major correction from the summer of 2008 through March 2009. The bull market has been intact since then but the bears are waking up…
Tags: option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Money Management, Sectors | Comments Off
Thursday, January 7th, 2010
9:00am (EST)
It is amazing the price swings stocks and options can go through. The best part about being an option trader is that there is always a trade out there. With so many sectors and ways to use options, the possibilities are endless as sectors get hold or cold and investors rotate money around. That is all there is to it, folks.
The key of course is figuring out where the money is going before the rest of the crowd…
We knew the start of 2010 would be a make or break month for the market and after a big pop on Monday, we have been flat for two days. The Dow finished Wednesday with a 2 point gain and closed at 10,573 while the S&P 500 added 1 point to settle at 1,137. The Nasdaq finished with a 7 point decline and went to bed at 2,301.
Despite the “lack of action” in the overall market there are several stocks making new highs and interesting stories developing in others. We keep a lot of notes and sometimes we find trades that look good on paper but don’t start off quite the way we would like.
For instance, we profiled a U.S Steel (X, $60.40, up $2.47) option trade back on September 28, 2009 when the stock was at $46 and when of our first sentences were “There are conflicting reports on just how strong demand is for steel but August showed steel output actually increased.”
We were trying to get a jump on an option trade because we felt U.S. Steel would set new highs by January 2010. However, we knew the road would be rocky.
The trade was slightly profitable but we shut it down because of Goldman Sachs came out and downgraded the sector the very next day. U.S. Steel was pushing $47. Here is what we told our subscribers in our Members Area:
“Folks, we got bit by the Goldman Sachs whammy as they downgraded the steel sector on Monday. I did not see the news until late in the afternoon. It was just a few weeks ago Goldman loved U.S. Steel and had a price target of $50 for the stock which was hit last week several times. It seems although production was up like I had mentioned, prices are falling.
I am normally not this quick to pull the trigger on a trade but Goldman’s words carry weight and that could send the stock back under $45. As such, raise the stop and lower the exit target. We may not reach $3 and if you can get out with a small gain or break even, CLOSE the trade. If the call options get cheaper, we may revisit the story.” (END)
A week later the stock was at $40 so we made the right call by getting out of the trade. It got even worse for U.S. Steel as the stock dropped to a low of $33 by the first week of November.
At the time, we profiled the January 55 calls (XAK, $5.85, up $2.30) which were at $2.55 but soared a whopping 70% yesterday as the stock set a new 52-week high. The options were probably under 50 cents and left for dead back in November but as you can see, options can and do go on wild price swings over the life of their expiration.
Steel got hot, then cold, and now it’s white hot again. Wall Street will take us out of some great trades from time to time but if you know how the system works then you can use it to you advantage. By that we mean sectors are always falling in and out of favor with the Street and the analyst’s upgrades and downgrades do move them. Sometimes these ratings help your trades and sometimes they don’t. We may have missed a double on our option trade but it just proves our “thesis” was right on.
Another stock waking up from the dead is JDS Uniphase (JDSU, $8.92, up $0.43) which also set a 52-week high yesterday. The company makes communications equipment and testing instruments, as well as optical components for machines such as photocopiers and scanners.
Ten years ago this stock would hit hit triple-digits and split like clockwork. Well, we don’t think it will hit triple-digits anytime soon but we do see double-digits. We are looking at a possible option trade for JDSU this morning but we want to do some more research before jumping in.
We already have quite a few open trades in our 2010 portfolio that are doing well but we don’t want to lose sight of a possible good trade…
A couple of drug stock making some noise this morning…Vivus (VVUS, $9.23, down $0.09) is up nearly 7% in pre-market trading to $9.90 and Dendreon (DNDN, $29.41, up $1.27) is over $30 again.
Dendreon’s 52-week high is $30.42 which has been hit twice meaning the “double-top” that has formed over the past six-months could be broken. The stock has traded between $25-$30 since April, after exploding from $4, and is due another breakout.
We have been mentioning the drug candidates for Vivus and we said this stock could hit double-digits quickly based on its strong pipeline. That could happen today.
Retailers will also be on the move as retail sales came in better-than-expected.
As we head to press, Dow futures are lower by 22 points to 10,494. Current subscribers, check the Members Area for today’s important trade updates.
Tags: alternative investments, asset management, blog Wall Street, buying call options, buying put options, call option trading, chicken option trades, Covered Calls, Dendreon, financial, financial investment, funds, future option trading, futures trading, gold investing, guide to investment, guide to options, guide to options trading, hedge fund, hedge funds, how to invest, income, index funds, index options, invest, invest money, investing for dummies, investing market, investment, investment advisor, investment management, investment services, investment strategy, investments, JDS Uniphase, journal Wall Street, momentum stock option trading, mutual investing, new Wall Street, on Wall Street, online option trading, online trading system, option call, option exchange, option investment, option price, option selling, option trade, option trade picks, option trading online, options, options blog, options expiration, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, options trade, options trading, options trading strategies, private equity, put option trading, Rick Rouse, software options, stock, stock exchange, stock investment, stock market, stock market options, stock option trade pick service, stock option trading, stock price, stock quotes, stock share, stock trading, straddle option trades, strangle option trades, strategies options, support and resistance levels, the Wall Street, trading, trading option, trading options, triple-digit option trades, U.S. Steel, Vivus, wall st, Wall Street, Wall Street article, Wall Street blog, Wall Street history, Wall Street online, wealth management
Posted in Company Commentary, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil, Option Trades, Sectors, Trading Tips | Comments Off
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Dow Slips Below 10,000
Friday, February 5th, 2010
1:20pm (EST)
The market is trending lower once again despite the ”surprise” unemployment rate numbers from the Labor Department this morning. The Dow is well below the 10,000 level and appears headed for its fourth-straight weekly loss.
The bulls got excited when they heard the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January to 9.7% from 10%, as Wall Street had pegged a number of 10.1%. That was the good news. The bad news was employers cut 20,000 jobs, more than the 5,000 expected.
As a result, the Dow is down 74 points, or -0.7%, and is currently at 9,928. The S&P 500 is off by 8 to 1,055 while the Nasdaq is getting clipped for a 6 points and stands at 2,120.
Just when we said we needed to see more M&A activity…Air Products and Chemicals (APD, $68.14, down $5.55) has made a $5 billion bid for Airgas (ARG, $60.27, up $16.74) and is willing to go “hostile”, if need be. Shares of Airgas are up 38% but the February 50 calls (ARGBJ, $10.20, up $10.15) (ARG100220C00050000) are up 20,000%. Ah yeah…we wish we would have gotten you in that trade yesterday.
The stock is trading above the offered price of $60 a share which could signal that a higher bid may be needed to get the deal done. A merger would create one of the biggest industrial gas companies in the world and this is the third time Air Products has made an offer as the other two were shot down.
Air Products already knows it may have to dig deeper in its coffers.
If you will notice, we included two different option symbols to reflect the upcoming changes that are going to be taking place in the option pits. With 20+ inches of snow coming our way, we will have no excuse for not getting this information out to you this weekend.
We are old school and we hate to see the change but it should make option trading easier and you really don’t need to worry about all those confusing numbers. We are going to break it down for you on how they work but don’t sweat it.
As we look forward to earnings next week, Hasbro (HAS, $30.73, down $0.53) could be in-play before the market opens on Monday. Wall Street is looking for the company to report a profit of $0.82 cents a share on revenue of $1.3 billion. As far as the options, it looks like put volume is outpacing the call options but traders could be selling the puts as well.
Our checks indicate that the company had a great quarter and they could surprise Wall Street by a few cents. That might not mean anything given the current market environment as the stock could sell-off despite an earnings beat.
We have updated our current trades before we head out and make sure to look for a complete portfolio update over the weekend as well as the options symbol review in the Members Area. When we post them, we will be sure to send out an email.
Tags: APD, ARG, HAS, Hasbro, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Company Commentary, Market Analysis, Mergers and Acquisitions, Sectors, Trading Psychology | Comments Off