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Market Volatility Continues

Friday, February 12th, 2010

1:05pm (EST)

The market is taking one on the chin today as most of the major indexes are experiencing losses but have come of the lows.  The bulls have traded blows, literally, every day this week and after the win yesterday, it’s the bears turn. 

There are a lot of elements causing today’s sell-off but more news that China said it would require banks to increase reserve levels is the biggie.  It was the second time in a month that this sentiment was echoed which would limit the amount their banks can lend.

Currently, the Dow is down 47 points to 10,097 while the S&P 500 is off by 4 points to 1,074.  Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is higher by a point to 2,178 and now seems to be the “strongest” of the big three. 

Trading continues to be choppy but our feeling is that individual investors do not want to commit new money to the market and traders are squaring up positions before the long holiday weekend.  The market will be closed on Monday for President’s Day.

Next week is options expiration week as the February chains expire NEXT Friday.

Folks, there could be an explosive move in store with a possible Greece resolution, options expiration week, and more pending news out of Washington expected.  China will be closed next week.

We should also get a clear signal on which way the market is headed.  A lot of money is being bet on the short-side but we aren’t taking sides just yet.  There are some interesting gyrations developing and there is a chance the market bounces off these current lows to much higher levels.  

Remember, when the herd thinks alike, the herd is likely to be wrong.  Right now, the sentiment on Wall Street is calling for a market correction, a pullback, or we are headed below previous lows, meaning Dow 7,500.  We don’t see that in the cards but we always look at both sides of the ball and try to play the trend.

We mentioned this morning that our trading manual is ready and folks, we are really super excited to bring you this product.  Our hope is to show you how to set-up a plan to follow the market, learn how it works and to find your own option trades.

You will be able to look at a stock and its chart and figure out EXACTLY what the stock needs to do for the trade to be profitable.  You will learn to figure out the best entry and exit prices and what your risks and rewards are.

Plus, with our expanded Watch Lists that includes up to date charts and detailed descriptions of what each company does, you will able to follow hundreds of stocks.  However, we teach you how to focus on where the money is flowing and what sectors are hot and which ones are turning cold.

We wanted to roll this out to start the New Year but we wanted to wait because of the current changes taking place in the options market right now.

We have been using new options quotes as many of you have seen in our Members Area and last weekend we did a special write-up on how to decipher the new symbols.  If you haven’t read it, click here.  It is a great read and it actually makes it easier to remember option symbols.

We are planning for hard copies to be available in March and there will be a special rate for the first month.  We are making this an incredible deal and it is our way of thanking all of you who have followed us for the last 2 years.  One bonus is that anyone who purchases our course will get an extra one-year membership added to their current subscription or if you are a new subscriber it will be included.

We are excited about the opportunity to teach you some of the neat features that will show you option trades that could provide you returns of up to 100%, 200%, 800% and even 2,500%.  Our track records from 2008 and 2009 are littered with these types of returns and you can view them at anytime.

Our 2010 track record will be available in a few weeks as we still have open trades for February so look out for it as well.  Of course, if you are already a subscriber then you have access to it daily.  There you will find all of our CURRENT trades AND all of the closed ones for the year.  If you have any questions on the manual, please email us over the weekend and we will get them answered. 

We will be back MONDAY night with the Weekly Wrap so everybody have a safe and happy 3-day weekend.   

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Greece Getting A Gift

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

1:10pm (EST)

Forget the bulls and bears it’s all about the PIGS today.

The market got a huge lift this morning after Wall Street became hopeful that Robin Hood would be helping the Greek debt situation.  There is a report that the “euro zone” countries have decided in principle to help debt-stricken Greece and there is news that Portugal hired Barclays and Goldman Sachs (GS, $152.85, up $1.76) to help it sell bonds.

Greece’s finance minister said he cannot call for outside aid, as doing so would send a negative signal to bond buyers, and this will not be a bailout.  Still, this has been a dark cloud over the market and it may have been the bulls wild card.

Shares of National Bank of Greece (NBG, $4.10, up $0.68) have rallied 20% on the news but it would be a hard stock to trust.

At a result, the Dow is up 211 points, or 2.2%, to 10,120 while the S&P 500 is higher by 21, or 2.0%, and is at 1,077.  The Nasdaq is lagging but is still enjoying a 37 point pop and stands at 2,162. 

In economic news, the Commerce Department reported that wholesale inventories were lower by 0.8% in December compared to an expectation that inventories would rise by 0.5% during the month.

Caterpillar (CAT, $53.93, up $3.15) is one of the Dow components that is fueling this huge rally.  The stock is up over 6% after an analyst upgrade.  Coca-Cola (KO, $54.86, up $2.21) was up 4% after reporting better than expected earnings as revenues benefited from emerging market growth.    

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Options Market Gets Facelift

Saturday, February 6th, 2010

11:00pm (EST) Special Update

We have been talking about the new option symbol changes that will take place starting next Friday, February 12th, and we wanted to get everyone prepared for the transition.  As you know, current option symbols range from 3-to-5 characters but all options will become 8 to 21 symbols long once the conversion takes place. 

The goal is to make options easier to decipher but all you really need to know to place a trade is the underlying stock, the expiration month you want, the strike price and whether it’s a call or a put.  They will look more complex but most brokerage accounts have already upgraded their trading platforms so that you really don’t even need to remember the option symbols anyway.

We have already started incorporating the new style of options symbols for our latest trades and ideas and we will continue displaying the old or current symbols up until the change.  Some financial sites have already made the switch but even if you see different symbols you can still place a trade as long as you know the option you want. 

The one problem with current option quotes is that some stocks use their stock symbols as the first part of the option while others don’t.  For instance, the option quotes for International Business Machines (IBM, $123.52, up $0.52) start with “IBM” while the options for Microsoft (MSFT, $28.02, up $0.18) start with “MSQ”.

We will look at these two stocks and their current options and show you the new change.

The IBM February 125 Calls (IBMBE, $1.16, up $0.04) currently look like this.  The new option symbol becomes (IBM100220C00125000).  NOTE:  The “option root symbol” can be up to 6 characters long. 

The Microsoft February 27 Puts (MSQNB, $0.24, down $0.10) will become (MSQ100220P00027000).  NOTE: Until February 12th the option root will be the same as the previous.  After the 12th, they should read (MSFT100220P00027000). 

The stock’s underlying ticker symbol will always be used in the new symbol.  MSQ will soon become MSFT.  The days of “decoding” option root symbols are coming to a close.  This wasn’t a big deal anyway but it does make things easier.

The second element, the expiration date, is always six numbers.  In this case, “100220″ for both IBM and Microsoft represents February 20, 2010, the expiration date for February 2010 options.  The first two numbers, “10″, represents 2010; the “02” for February; and “20” for the day.  A 2011 option reads “11”, a December option would be “12”

The expiration date is always on the Saturday that follows the third Friday of the month, unless that Friday is a market holiday, in which case the expiration is on the Friday. This is a little confusing though as the last day to trade options for February is Friday, the 19th.

The third part is if the option is a call or put which is represented with a ”C” or “P”.

The last set of numbers represents the strike price, which consists of eight numbers. The first 5 denote the strike dollar price, and the remaining 3 represent the decimal (if any).

Thus, “00027000″ represents the Microsoft February 27 put strike.  If it were a 27.50 strike, it would read “00027500.”

The new terminology will take some getting used to but again, as long as you know the stock, the month you are playing, the strike price and if it’s a call or put option you will be fine.  If you have any questions, email us.

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Dow Slips Below 10,000

Friday, February 5th, 2010

1:20pm (EST)

The market is trending lower once again despite the ”surprise” unemployment rate numbers from the Labor Department this morning.  The Dow is well below the 10,000 level and appears headed for its fourth-straight weekly loss. 

The bulls got excited when they heard the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January to 9.7% from 10%, as Wall Street had pegged a number of 10.1%.  That was the good news.  The bad news was employers cut 20,000 jobs, more than the 5,000 expected.

As a result, the Dow is down 74 points, or -0.7%, and is currently at 9,928.  The S&P 500 is off by 8 to 1,055 while the Nasdaq is getting clipped for a 6 points and stands at 2,120.

Just when we said we needed to see more M&A activity…Air Products and Chemicals (APD, $68.14, down $5.55) has made a $5 billion bid for Airgas (ARG, $60.27, up $16.74) and is willing to go “hostile”, if need be.  Shares of Airgas are up 38% but the February 50 calls (ARGBJ, $10.20, up $10.15) (ARG100220C00050000) are up 20,000%.  Ah yeah…we wish we would have gotten you in that trade yesterday.

The stock is trading above the offered price of $60 a share which could signal that a higher bid may be needed to get the deal done.  A merger would create one of the biggest industrial gas companies in the world and this is the third time Air Products has made an offer as the other two were shot down.

Air Products already knows it may have to dig deeper in its coffers. 

If you will notice, we included two different option symbols to reflect the upcoming changes that are going to be taking place in the option pits.  With 20+ inches of snow coming our way, we will have no excuse for not getting this information out to you this weekend. 

We are old school and we hate to see the change but it should make option trading easier and you really don’t need to worry about all those confusing numbers.  We are going to break it down for you on how they work but don’t sweat it.      

As we look forward to earnings next week, Hasbro (HAS, $30.73, down $0.53) could be in-play before the market opens on Monday.  Wall Street is looking for the company to report a profit of $0.82 cents a share on revenue of $1.3 billion.  As far as the options, it looks like put volume is outpacing the call options but traders could be selling the puts as well. 

Our checks indicate that the company had a great quarter and they could surprise Wall Street by a few cents.  That might not mean anything given the current market environment as the stock could sell-off despite an earnings beat.

We have updated our current trades before we head out and make sure to look for a complete portfolio update over the weekend as well as the options symbol review in the Members Area.  When we post them, we will be sure to send out an email. 

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Cisco Systems On The Clock

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010

12:40pm (EST)

The bulls are treading water today as the Dow is currently down 46 points to 10,250.  After consecutive days of triple-digit gains the market is pulling back slightly as both the bulls and bears look ahead to Friday’s unemployment report. 

The S&P 500 is also trading lower and is at 1,095, down 7 points while the Nasdaq is off by 6 to 2,184.

Wall Street will be watching Cisco Systems (CSCO, $22.91, down $0.11) after the closing bell today as the company reports earnings.  The pencil pushers are looking for a profit of 35 cents a share on revenue of $9.4 billion.  The company is famous for beating earnings by a penny but we are looking for hints about what Cisco has to say for the rest of 2010.

First Solar (FSLR, $118.25, up $0.88) is looking like it could be ready to pop or drop.  Shares trade to a low of $109.77 on 1/22 which may have been a bottom or the sign of a further drop.  The sector has fallen out of favor recently but things could be picking up.  We are hearing good things about the sector although the Street has pushed them aside for the time being.     

Special Announcement:  We have started a NEW section today in our Members Area as we work on the finishing touches of our trading manual.  We talk about “Watch Lists” all the time and we thought it might be beneficial if we added possible trades that we are looking at.  With options, timing is everything and we always have 5-10 active trades we follow that we are just waiting for the right entry point before we release them.

These trades will NOT be recommendations until certain events happen OR we list a limit price to buy a certain option.  We have some room for some new trades and hopefully his will help you see how we find trades.  Once the manual is complete you should be on your way to becoming your own option trader if you choose to do so.  We have also included the NEW option symbols for each trade we are watching.

Many of you have asked for something like this and your comments and suggestions are always welcomed.  Keep them coming… 

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« Older Entries
Try our directional option picks.
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Year Profits
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Results are NOT compounded.

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2010 Option
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Trader Comments:

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
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    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”