|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
Monday, February 28th, 2011
1:00pm (EST)
The market continues its rebound from last week’s selloff. A lot of traders took out protection for the weekend and are covering today as oil has stabilized. Economic news has come in better-than-expected and the bulls have used these two catalysts to move the indexes higher.
Oil was down after reports surfaced that oil shipments in Libya have begun again but is off its lows and is slightly positive. News that a tanker bound for China was loading oil in the Libyan port of Tobruk was welcomed relief for the bulls. Additionally, the market learned Saudi Arabia was boosting exports and has reiterated their ability to meet any supply shortfall.
In economic news, Personal Income for January increased by 1%, which was much higher than the 0.3% pop that had been penciled in. Personal Spending during January was up 0.2% versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. Elsewhere, the Chicago PMI reading for February came in at 71.2, up from January’s print of 68.8, and higher than expectations of 67.5.
The Dow is up 80 points to 12,210 and has traded to a high of 12,233. We would love to see a close above 12,200 while support is strong at 12,000.
The S&P 500 is showing a 6 point gain and is 1,326. A close above 1,325 would be money; 1,330 even better.
The Nasdaq is lower by 2 points and is at 2,778. We are looking for a close above 2,800 and the index has traded as high as 2,798 today.
We like today’s action and we would like to see continued strength into the close but the fact that Tech has slipped has us cautious. We will be back in the morning with a full update.
Tags: best option trader, best trading signals, call options, chicken trade, Covered Calls, financial options advice, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option mentoring, option quotes, option signals, Option Trades, option trading, options broker, options newsletter, options prices, put options, stock broker, stock price, stock quotes, strangle option trade, winning option trades
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off
Tuesday, January 4th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
The market started off in positive territory but has given up most of its gains as we heads towards the second half of trading. There is a lot going on that is causing a little volatility but for the most part, the market is holding up well.
Oil is down $2 to under $90 a barrel but appears to be going to $100 which would be bad for consumers.
Gold is down nearly $40 to $1,383/ ounce, while Silver is off over $1 to just under $30/ ounce.
As a result, the Dow is lower by 3 points to 11,667 while the S&P 500 is down by 5 points to 1,266. The Nasdaq is down 18 points to 2,673.
We have a lot to talk about in our Members Area so we are short on time. We have 2 NEW TRADES opening and we are closing our first profitable trade for 2011. Subscribers, check for the important updates.
We will be back Wednesday morning with a full update.
Tags: Gold prices, momentum options, Momentum stocks, Oil prices
Posted in Gold, Oil | Comments Off
Sunday, July 11th, 2010
2Q Earnings Season Starts On Monday
4:30pm (EST)
The bulls had a stellar week after taking a beating from the bears that pushed them to the brink and had the major averages on the verge of a collapse. The market spent much of Friday near the breakeven line before a late day rally pushed the indexes firmly into positive territory. The rally was impressive and came during a holiday-shortened week and on lighter-than-normal volume. We also saw rallies into the close instead of sell-off’s but can the rally be trusted?
The Dow added 59 points on Friday, or 0.6%, to settle at 10,198. It was the index’s best week so far in 2010 as the Dow popped 511 points, or 5.3%. However, to put things in perspective, the index fell 457 points, or 4.5%, the week before. Here is what we said Friday morning:
“The recent trading range has been 9,800 through 10,600 with 10,200 providing a pivot point. The low was 9,600 set last week. The 500 point rally off the lows has been violent and unpredictable to say the least.”
Folks, when we said volatility would be picking up, we weren’t kidding. The Dow closed just 2 points away from our “pivot point”. The next level the bulls will be eyeing is 10,400 then 10,600 and support will come in at 10,000 and 9,800.
The S&P 500 ended the week with an 8 point gain, or 0.7%, to finish at 1,077. The index was able to tack on 55 points, or 5.4%, for the week after falling 54 points, or 5%, the prior week. We mentioned the 1,075 level would come into play on Friday and we were also 2 points off from nailing the close. Watch for a test of 1,100 to the upside and 1,050 again to the downside.
The Nasdaq had the best showing on Friday, adding 21 points, or 1%, to close at 2,196. Although the 2,200 level acted as slight resistance, we are watching the 2,240-2,250 area to change our bearish sentiment. For the week, the index added nearly 105 points, or 5%, after dropping 130 points, or 6%, the week before.
Turning to black and yellow gold, oil also surged higher throughout the week and ended at $76 per barrel while gold finished at $1,210 an ounce. The rally in oil marked an impressive 5.5% gain for the week - its best weekly finish in nearly six weeks. The gold bugs got excited when the commodity dipped below the $1,200 level which garnered some buying but added just 0.2% for the week, overall.
The VIX fell to 24.98, down 0.73, or 2.8%, and closed below 25 for the first time since June 21. The euro, which we are watching like a hawk, has seen a powerful rally over the past month and is at $1.264 versus the dollar. We have the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE, $126.00, down $0.50) on our Watch List and said $1.27 should act as resistance.
To make a long story short, the market was due for a bounce and we only mention these key levels to put things in perspective for you. It is important to try and keep track of where support and resistance is because it often gives you a clue of future direction. We not only do this with the major indexes but we do it with all of our trades.
As long as the picture or story hasn’t change, then it makes it easier to stick to your game plan. We warned last week that we could get a “dead-cat bounce” or a “relief rally” because the sentiment had become a little too negative although well deserved.
We still feel like any rallies should be sold and the upcoming earnings season will likely set the stage for the market’s next move. We are hoping to break out of this recent range and we could care less which way the market is headed but we are preparing for another leg lower.
Here is at look at some of the big names set to report second-quarter earnings this week:
Alcoa (AA, $10.94, up $0.22) after the close on Monday and Intel (INTC, $20.24, up $0.14) on Tuesday. Thursday we get a look at Google (GOOG, $467.49, up $10.93) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, $38.85, up $0.69) while Friday brings Bank of America (BAC, $15.11, up $0.25) and General Electric’s (GE, $14.95, up $0.12) numbers.
As far as pre-announcements, we thought we might see more as only 150 companies gave Wall Street a heads-up on the upcoming quarter. The S&P 500 had a little over a 100 of the names which means roughly 20% gave guidance updates. To put things in perspective, there were twice as many 10 years ago.
The underperformance in a few sectors have caused analysts to lower estimates going into the quarter and some companies will look golden when they report. The key will be what wording they use going forward.
We are looking for another volatile week and the bulls have a little momentum they are using to push the market higher. We think the bears will also show up as we don’t think things will be as one-sided as they have been over the past two weeks. Either way, the rest of the summer will be interesting and don’t forget the July options expire THIS Friday.
We are currently looking at new trades that span August, September and maybe even December call and put options. We are likely to pull the trigger on a few recommendations this week so stay locked and loaded as the wave of news begins to flood Wall Street.
Tags: call options, how to trade options, momentum options trading, Momentum stocks, option picks, option stock picks, options alerts, options newsletter, options track record, put options, stock options trading, volatile options
Posted in Company Commentary, Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil, VIX, Watch Lists | Comments Off
Friday, June 25th, 2010
1:10pm (EST)
We wanted to bring Apollo Group (APOL, $44.29, down $1.68) to your attention again today as shares have hit another 52-week low. We have been bearish on this stock for a couple years, and we had good success in the past playing options on it.
Apollo Group and other Educational stocks are taking a beating today after a “gainful employment probe” continues to hit the industry. The last time out, we took a small loss on an option trade because of the volatility, but it was a sign of things to come.
From May 27th:
“We took a 16% hit on Apollo after the parameters of the trade were broken, but we have been warning our subscribers to stay away from this dog for years. Justice might not have been served on our recommended option trade, but the 52-week low of $52.20 looks like it will fall today.
We didn’t like the volatility when shares shot up to $60 last Thursday on some bogus rumor so we got our subscribers out. However, we should have listened to our gut as the stock looks poised to fall below $50 today.” (END)
From January 8th:
“Apollo actually made a slight gain yesterday and reported their earnings after the bell last night. Although they painted a pretty picture for Wall Street, the stock was down $3.20, to $60.74, in after-hours trading last night.
The company reported earnings that beat estimates by a penny but once again, the way they run their accounting department has raised some concerns. We made 4 trade recommendations on Apollo last year, all put options, and the returns were 100%, -15%, 50%, and -17%.” (END)
The point we are trying to make is that when you follow a terrible company for years you can get a feel for how it trades and we plan on teaching you this. (Our Momentum Options Trading Manual is coming in July, we promise). The same is true for companies that have solid businesses. You buy call options on stocks that you feel are going to go up and put options on stocks that you think are going to sink. It’s that simple. The risks are greater playing options but the returns can be incredible.
We profiled Apollo Group again on our Watch List last week because we knew the fall was coming but sometimes our portfolio is full so we miss out on a few trades. We don’t like to carry over 10 open positions at once and sometimes WE will miss trades because we don’t like to break our own rules. However, our Watch List has been hot and a lot of traders are writing to thank us for adding it.
We wrote a really good story on Apollo Group when the stock was at $73 back in October 2009. We could have bought a LEAP put option but the premiums on going 9-12 months out can be pretty expensive. Here is that article and it provides a more detailed look at the company’s shady business practices (If you like playing poker, you will love our analogies):
http://momentumoptionstrading.com/2009/10/28/apollo-group-has-a-skeleton-or-two/
We have a lot to talk about in our MEMBERS AREA today, and for those of you who are thinking of joining us, you have picked a great time. Not only are we nearly set to launch our trading manual, we also have plans to offer AUTO-TRADING by mid-July!
We are still hammering out the details, but we think we have found a great firm to handle your trades. We know many of you are busy, and the requests for auto-trading have not gone unheard. Both will be available soon so stay tuned!
As we head to press, the Dow is down 31 points t 10,121 while the S&P 500 is down by 2 points and was last seen at 1,071. The Nasdaq is higher by 3 points to 2,220. We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap. Oh, by the way, BP (BP, $27.31, down $1.43) is at 14-year lows. Next week is setting up to be a doozy, folks…
Tags: APOL, Apollo Group, autotrade, autotrading, BP, momentum options trading, option picks, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Earnings, Oil, Trading Psychology | Comments Off
Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010
1:00pm (EST)
The market is mildly positive after spending much of the morning near the flat line. There have been spurts to the upside, but traders were cautious ahead the disappointing existing home sales report. Although selling pressure picked up after Wall Street got the numbers at 10am the market is still mixed.
We don’t need a drum roll for this one…Existing home sales for May decreased 2.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.7 million units, which was below the expected rate of 6.1 million units. We knew home-buying tax credits from the government would be fading, but many pencil pushers were expecting them to lift sales in May and June.
The deadline to get a mortgage loan and still qualify was April 30, and those buyers are expected to close by the end of this month. Some haven’t which is the reason for the disappointment, but there is talk of extending the deadline for closing a sale until the end of September.
It probably won’t matter either way because people need a job to buy a house. However, a lot of people’s credit scores are spotty and banks are still unwilling to make riskier loans. You also have the home sellers who still THINK their house is worth the price it was back at the real estate top and are having a hard time excepting the facts even though they are behind on their house payments.
In earnings news, Carnival (CCL, $33.91, down $0.83) reported profits of $252 million, or $0.32 a share, versus $264 million and $0.33 a share, in the year-earlier period. Wall Street was looking for $0.29 a share.
Revenue came in at $3.2 billion versus $2.9 billion a year ago, but increased fuel prices hurt earnings by 20 cents a share during the quarter. Wow.
Carnival trimmed the fat where it could to make up these costs, but somewhere down the road we expect the BP (BP, $29.63, down $0.70) news to come into play.
Speaking of which, BP has hit fresh lows as the world watches the most irresponsible and distasteful CEO’s ever. There is no need to go into the details because we aren’t the paparazzi, but we’re sure you have heard of his latest actions.
Oh, and this just in. The IRS is thinking about TAXING the victims who have and will receive checks from BP. This could and should change, and if it doesn’t, we will truly see how greedy politicians can be. Congress has the power to make them tax exempt. What is hard to believe is this is actually a story.
As we head to press, the Dow is up a point to 10,442 while the S&P is off a point to 1,111. The Nasdaq is higher by 10 points and is at 2,299 and is fighting the 2,300 level as we type. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: BP, Carnival, CCL, CCL earnings news, momentum options trading, option picks, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off
|
|
|  | | | |
Get RSS Feed
Market Higher as Bulls Bounce Back
Monday, February 28th, 2011
1:00pm (EST)
The market continues its rebound from last week’s selloff. A lot of traders took out protection for the weekend and are covering today as oil has stabilized. Economic news has come in better-than-expected and the bulls have used these two catalysts to move the indexes higher.
Oil was down after reports surfaced that oil shipments in Libya have begun again but is off its lows and is slightly positive. News that a tanker bound for China was loading oil in the Libyan port of Tobruk was welcomed relief for the bulls. Additionally, the market learned Saudi Arabia was boosting exports and has reiterated their ability to meet any supply shortfall.
In economic news, Personal Income for January increased by 1%, which was much higher than the 0.3% pop that had been penciled in. Personal Spending during January was up 0.2% versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. Elsewhere, the Chicago PMI reading for February came in at 71.2, up from January’s print of 68.8, and higher than expectations of 67.5.
The Dow is up 80 points to 12,210 and has traded to a high of 12,233. We would love to see a close above 12,200 while support is strong at 12,000.
The S&P 500 is showing a 6 point gain and is 1,326. A close above 1,325 would be money; 1,330 even better.
The Nasdaq is lower by 2 points and is at 2,778. We are looking for a close above 2,800 and the index has traded as high as 2,798 today.
We like today’s action and we would like to see continued strength into the close but the fact that Tech has slipped has us cautious. We will be back in the morning with a full update.
Tags: best option trader, best trading signals, call options, chicken trade, Covered Calls, financial options advice, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option mentoring, option quotes, option signals, Option Trades, option trading, options broker, options newsletter, options prices, put options, stock broker, stock price, stock quotes, strangle option trade, winning option trades
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil | Comments Off