Friday, May 17th, 2013
We hate to see this week come to a close because it has been our BEST week of a Goodyear (GT, $14.70, up $0.92) so far. Pun intended.
We have closed a number or triple-digit winners, including last week’s monster gains, and we said in late April the breakout (or breakdown) out of the 6-week trading range would yield huge profits. The 7-week range from the beginning of March through mid-April frustrated us because options are time sensitive so we need volatility or a clear trend to get the most bang for your buck. For those of you that have been patient and headed our catcalls for a breakout rally in May, you have been well rewarded.
Since late April we have recommended 19 option trades, all call options, or bullish bets May would be a special month for the bulls when nearly everyone we know was calling for a pullback. All of our near-term targets for the indexes have come into play and even our year-end targets are within reach.
Out of the 19 trades, we have only has 2 losers for a 90% win rate. We still have some open trades but we have locked-in quarter, third, and half profits on a few of these trades and we have stops in place to protect our profits.
Some of the gains include 140% on the SolarCity (SCTY, $42.34, up $6.65) May call options, 173% on Big Five Sporting Goods (BGFV, $21.75, up $0.35) May call options, 263% on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN, $265.42, up $0.76) May call options, 100% in Beam (BEAM, 68.74, up $0.09) June call options.
We also have open trades that are approaching gains of 200% and we are expecting further gains from them if the rally continues into next week. Other current open trades are showing high double-digit profits and could hit triple-digits over the next few weeks.
We are also excited about playing a continued rally or the mother of all pullbacks if and when the bears ever wake up. We spend all day on Sunday’s doing chart work for the indexes, current trades and possible trades on our Watch List and we can’t wait to check the charts this weekend.
We are neither bullish or bearish as we could care less which was the market goes because we can make just as much money in a bear market as we do in bull markets. If you are nervous about a pending pullback, don’t be. Check out our 2008 portfolio and the insane profits our subscribers made when the Dow was losing 200, 400, 500 and 777 points a day.
Of course, we are still in a bull market and we will continue riding the bulls back until we get the clues of a possible trend change coming. Our Daily portfolio for 2013 is showing incredible gains and we are now beating the market by 5 times over. Our Weekly Wrap has been no slouch either as we are 14-1 with another possible 1 or 2 trades closing today.
We can’t wait for next week and we are in a great position as we wind down May and start to look forward to June and the rest of the year. Folks, this could be one of the best times EVER to play the options market – to the upside- and downside, eventually.
We often mention the bulls like to take the steps when it comes to moving to higher ground but the bears? They like the elevator. For now, the bulls continue to stair step higher.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 62 points to 15,295 while the S&P 500 is higher by 8 points to 1,658. The Nasdaq is advancing 14 points to 3,479.
We have some last minute updates on our current trades before the weekend hits and we have another NEW TRADE we are getting into.
We will be back Sunday evening with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the latest and greatest. Until then, have a great weekend and treat yourself to dinner and some cold sodas following the incredibly profitable week we have put in!
Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013
The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Tuesday but the small-caps and Transports took another hit. There are some important economic reports due out this morning so let’s go over the numbers real quick.
The Dow gained 89 points, or 0.6%, to end at 14,662. The blue-chips reached an intraday all-time high of 14,684 and is less than a half-percent away from triggering our near-term target of 14,750.
The S&P 500 advanced 8 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 1,570. The index kissed 1,573.66 but had trouble clearing the intraday all-time high north of 1,575. The bulls will need to clear this level on the close if they have plans to reach 1,600.
The Nasdaq jumped 16 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 3,254. Tech traded up to 3,267 and we are looking for a close above 3,275 as confirmation a run to 3,300 is coming. The index held the 3,250 level but failed to make a higher high from last Thursday and Monday.
The Russell 2000, dipped 5 points, or 0.5%, to close at 934. We have talked about the break below 940 and how the small-caps could lead a market reversal so this situation needs to be watched. Meanwhile, the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 12.78, down 0.80) dropped 6% and closed below 13.50. This was mildly bullish.
Futures were mixed for much of the night but have improved ahead of this morning’s ADP Employment report that is due out shortly. The consensus is for a gain of around 200,000 jobs but we are expecting numbers in the 160,000-180,000. While the headline would be disappointing to most, a lower number would actually be good for the market, as it would help keep quantitative easing at full speed.
As we head to press, here is how things are shacking up: Dow (+6); S&P 500 (+2); Nasdaq 100 (+3). There could be a major swing in the futures if the report is viewed as positive or negative so we have planned for a little volatility this morning.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the important updates.
Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
“We are halfway through 4Q numbers that continue to come in ahead of Wall Street’s estimates. Nearly 70% of the companies that have reported have beaten the suit-and-ties forecasts but let’s not forget the bar was lowered coming into the season. They have stayed on the sidelines in raising earnings and that could be good news for the bulls come 1Q earnings in April. If companies continue to come in with better-than-expected numbers, it would be helpful for a continued rallied but this is the last “big” week before the announcements start to slow.
Tech finally showed some strength as Apple (AAPL, $474.98, up $6.76) was up over $20 for the week and may have bottomed (at least temporarily) at $440. We mentioned a few weeks ago the company’s weight on the indexes and any rally in Apple will help the bulls push new highs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
We have a feeling Apple shares could push $500-$510 before eventually falling back below its 52-week low of $435, to maybe $410-$400. This would coincide with the pending 5%-10% pullback that will come at some point. If shares clear $510 then we would expect a rally up to $550 but Apple needs a wow product instead of refreshes or they need to get busy on the acquisition path to push growth again.
As far as a new product, we are hearing Apple is working on a watch-type device that could operate on the same platform as the iPhone. Then there is the TV which may or may not be in the works for 2013.
As far as marriages, we have mentioned time-and-time again Apple should buy TiVo (TIVO, $13.21, up $0.25) and the no-brainer would be Twitter but two more companies they should go after are American Tower (AMT, $77.06, $1.17) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM, $35.42, up $0.16).
American Tower would be the biggest merger as the company’s market cap is north of $30 billion but they operates as a REIT (real estate investment trust) and it would give Apple a powerful wireless and communication infrastructure or platform to build out it business. It might take care of the shareholder lawsuit that popped up as Apple could say it needs its $140 billion war chest to make these type of acquisitions.
Akamai just got a 15% haircut after disappointing the Street and missing estimates. Shares dropped from $41 to $35. Its market-cap is just over $6 billion and they provide content delivery.
Besides Apple, Merger and Acquisitions (M&A) could fuel a higher rally in 2013 as things pickup and we are starting to see early signs that it could be a great year for M&A deals. Historic Price-to-Earnings ratio on the S&P 500 have been much higher and companies have loads of cash on their balance sheets. Plus, money is cheap as dirt to borrow (if you can get a loan) and sooner or later the banks will let go of their purse strings.
The Dow Transportation Index ($TRAN) is approaching 6,000 following last week 54-point pop and is up over 11% for the year. We have also mentioned this index as a key indicator of bullishness or bearishness and the steps the bulls have been climbing are staggering. If the bears take the elevator down, it could be a quick trip to 5,400 on any market pullback or correction. A drop below 5,800 would be a good clue to load up on index put options so keep this in mind down the road.
We continue to see mixed to up Monday/ Friday closes and the last time the S&P finished lower on a M/F was mid-January and that was only by a fraction. We will have to watch this week’s action because February Friday option expiration has been bearish in recent years and will be here this Friday. This would mean the bulls need a good start to the week or the odds favor a negative M/F close for the first time in over a month. The market will be closed the following Monday and ahead of a 3-day weekend so there may be some profit taking.
The bulls are on a 6-week win streak and, although the Dow slipped a little last week, the index traded above its previous week’s high on Friday. We have given you a few simple clues to watch for to the upside on all of the indexes and we have called this market right for months despite everyone’s fear for a pullback. We don’t say this to toot our horn but to remind you that it is important to trade your plan no matter what the pros and talking heads are telling you.
We continue to say that calling a market top is never easy but we have been on point since early December as out 4% upper-end targets and fluff targets have triggered.
We could say we are surprised but all of the clues were laid out like bread crumbs and we have marked our trail if and when there is a retreat.
The market is following the same pattern as last year where a lot of the pros were not in the game coming into the New Year. They were out and called for a pullback through March as money-managers fell behind the curve and played catch up all year. We always remind our subscribers the pros like to pack it in sometimes a little early to take long vacations and when there was little action before Christmas, most were flat. Most were worried about the Fiscal Cliff. And most of them have missed this year’s surge. There is still a lot of head scratching on Wall Street as to why the market continues higher and there are a lot of money managers and investment newsletters still calling for a correction. Last year’s market pullback didn’t come until April and while there are some serious headwinds facing us over the near-term, keep this in mind as well.
There has been some bipartisanship between the zombies lately and if they can avoid the March sequester, or looming budget cuts, and come to some type of an agreement, the bulls will have more reasons to push new highs. The head zombie will be speaking Tuesday in his State of the Union address and although his talk has been brash of late, we are hoping he tones it down a little and talks more about a compromise than kicking the can down the road.
The targets we need to watch for on a possible downside correction are as follows: (subscribers only)
Otherwise, we mentioned the bulls haven’t come this far not to ring the bell on new 52-week peaks for ALL of the indexes and all that remain are the blue-chips and Tech. If the indexes get there, great, and we will continue to stay long. If not, wait for the downside targets to trigger before going short.” (from 2/10/2013 Weekly Wrap Update)…
The indexes stayed in a tight range all week as the bulls and bears each won some key battles. The market felt like it ended lower but a deeper look at the numbers reveal the bulls actually won the week. February has historically been a bearish month for the market with losses of 1% or more, on average, but the mixed week didn’t slow the bulls down as some of the indexes hit fresh 52-week peaks again.
There are warning signs the market could be topping and both the bulls and bears are making good arguments as to why this could be the top, or, if the market will get one last surge higher. With earnings winding down, the focus will turn towards the zombies and economic news here at home and abroad will start to become more important as GDP numbers around the world continue to fall.
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we had an incredible 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis. Together, we were 159-70 (70% win rate) for both newsletters in 2012 awith over 30-triple-digit winners. Our 5-year track record from 2008-2012 is now a staggering 621-273 that is also a 70% win rate. We doubt you will find a better options trading service.
Our average trade recommendation usually last 3 weeks or less and we have closed some trades in as little as 24 hours. We target triple-digit returns for all of our option picks for the Daily and double-digit returns for the Weekly Wrap.
Thursday, January 31st, 2013
The bears are feeling giddy as they seem to be gathering momentum ahead of Friday’s unemployment report. The losses have been somewhat contained but the bulls have given up some nice round numbers that is making Wall Street nervous.
There are some interesting headline stories today including the Department of Justice’s move to block Anheuser-Busch Inbev’s (BUD, $87.15, down $6.99) $20 billion deal to buy Mexican brew-daddy Grupo Modelo and owns the brand Corona. The zombies believe the marriage would lead to higher brew prices and diminish the competition in the U.S. beer market. They contend BUD would control nearly 50% of the beer sales and the company has said it will go to court.
In 2008, we predicted a takeover of Budweiser and we made our subscribers a nice chunk of change playing call options. There were several triple-digit winners we recommended and the highest return was 588%. That year was also one of our best years ever to trade options as the volatility was insane. There were triple-digit moves on the Dow nearly every day it seemed like and we are hoping 2013 becomes just as volatile.
Research in Motion (RIMM, $12.83, down $0.95) is down another 7% and we mentioned this morning shares could test $12, possibly $10, over the near-term. The company dropped the ball by not making the phone available in the U.S. until March despite the boatload of cash they spent to do a SuperBowl commercial. The hype is nice but consumers will likely forget about the phone in a month.
The real proof on how well RIMM does or doesn’t do will depend on how many of their 70 million users upgrade to the $199 phones. It is still cheaper than Apple’s (AAPL, $455.19, down $1.64) iPhone but there are still holes in RIMM’s execution plan.
The market action will likely remain in a tight range with risk to the downside and the final hour of trading will be crucial to see how the bulls respond. There is still a chance tomorrow’s numbers throw everyone for a loop and there is a massive short covering, blow-off the roof type rally. We have said we are expecting an explanation point at the end of this rally like the spike we saw at the beginning of the year. However, there is a chance the numbers do come in lousy and the profit taking begins.
As we head to press, the Dow is down 30 points to 13,880 while the S&P is lower by 3 points to 1,498 and is below the 1,500 level. The Nasdaq is declining a point to 3,141 while the Russell 2000 is up 3 points to 900. The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 14.36, up $0.04) has traded in a tight range and is only slightly up.
We have a lot more to cover inside our Members Area, including action to take on a current trade as we continue to wind down the portfolio to get ready for the next batch. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.
Friday, December 7th, 2012
We love Christmas time as it is our favorite holiday of the year. It is nice to receive cards, letters, and gifts but it is more about caring. Our subscribers mean a lot to us and every year we offer a huge discount on yearly memberships because we want you to learn how the market works and we want you to find your own trades. More importantly, we want you to make money. There is no bigger thrill once you learn to trade options and find your own trade that returns you 500% in a matter of days or hours.
We are a high risk/ high reward option investment Daily newsletter and we also offer “safer” option and stock trades through our Weekly Wrap newsletter. The Daily newsletter targets triple-digit returns for every trade and offers 2-3 trades a week, depending on market conditions. We have nearly 200 trades on the books this year and our Track Record is 122-54 for nearly a 70% win rate. We have recommended over 30 triple-digit winners with gains up to 400%-500% and most trade recommendations range from 50%-80% returns.
For our Weekly Wrap, we are 26-0 on trade recommendations. We were 16-0 in 2011 and we are 42-0 since inception. Overall for 2012, our Track Record is 147-54 which is a 73% success rate. This is by far, one of the best, if not the best, option trading services out there. We have not had a losing year since we started the newsletter in 2008.
The cost for a 1-year membership is $924 for the Daily. This is $77/ month and much less than the $97 or $129 monthly memberships. The Weekly Wrap is also $924 for a 1-year deal.
We will be offering them BOTH for $924. This is a 50% savings.
We also offer an option trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, that is valued at $895. The course comes with bi-monthly videos and currently has dozens of videos on trade setups, how to find trades, and how to read charts. The course is also shipped to you at no charge and you can read more here.
We are also doing two more special incentives. One is we are offering an extra 20% discount through this weekend only that will lower the price to $740/ or around $60 a month for both publications.
We do this because we will be printing the new, updated option trading manual with more charts and tips, and we need to know how many we need to print and to keep our costs (and yours) as low as possible. After this weekend, there will not be a 20% discount but you can still get both the Daily and Weekly Wrap for $924.
The iPad offer is this. If you signup this weekend for the 1-year deal, you will be eligible to enter an educated guess on where the Dow will be on the last trading day of the year at the close on December 31, 2012.
We will take all entries by Sunday night by midnight (EST) and we will confirm them with each subscriber. The one who comes the closest on the Dow, over or under, will win a brand new iPad.
Your prediction must list the Dow’s closing price with two decimal points. In other words, if you believe the Dow will end at 13,600 – you will need to use 13,600.00.
The coupon code for the 20% discount and the special deal will end Sunday night. You will need to click on the 1-year Daily subscription link and enter the code to get the discount. You will need to email our support team no later than 11:59pm (EST), Sunday, December 9, 2012. We will list the high and low predictions on Tuesday morning.
You can also call us if you have questions.
The special offer will run through December but in order to get the EXTRA 20% discount and the chance to win a beautiful, brand spanking new iPad, you must signup this weekend!
We cannot break these rules so please do not write and ask us on Monday if it is too late to get in. It would not be fair to other subscribers.
The next video for our option course will be out soon and we will be covering a host of topics so make sure you get on board. This is by far, the best deal we offer and it only comes along once a year.
Here is the coupon and please be sure to click the 1-year Daily membership.
Click here to go to our subscription page.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 31 points to 13,105 while the S&P 500 is lower by 2 points to 1,412. The Nasdaq is off 17 points to 2,972.
Have a GREAT weekend everyone and we will be beack Monday Morning!
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