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Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012
2:00pm (EST)
The market is mixed as we head into the final few hours of trading. The bears got a nice jump at the bell following worse-than-expected data from the ADP Employment Change report which showed only 119,000 private-sector jobs were added in April. Wall Street was looking for a print of at least 170,000 job additions.
Elsewhere, Factory Orders also were slightly ahead of expectations, coming in at 1.5% for March, versus expectations for a 1.6% drop.
Thursday is a heavy day for the market as the Challenger Jobs Cuts will set the tone and comes out at 7:30am (EST). Initial and Continuing Claims are due out an hour before the bell along with the latest Productivity and Unit Labor Costs numbers. At 10am, the ISM Services report is due out.
Earnings for Thursday include: Bebe Stores (BEBE, $8.46, up $0.52), First Solar (FSLR, $18.09, down $0.33), General Motors (GM, $22.93, down $0.38), Liquidity Services (LQDT, $55.49, up $2.52), MGM Resorts (MGM, $13.73, up $0.44), Public Storage (PSA, $145.27, up $0.23) and Trimble Navigation (TRMB, $54,15, up $0.20).
As we head to press, here is how we look.
The Dow is down 24 points to 13,255 while the S&P is lower by 5 points to 1,400. The Nasdaq is up 4 points to 3,054.
Some of our current trades are doing well today so let’s go check on them as well.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Challenger Jobs Cuts, MGM, MGM Resorts earnings, momentum options, Momentum stocks
Posted in Earnings, Economic News, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Tuesday, May 1st, 2012
12:50pm (EST)
The bulls continue to climb a wall of worry and have pushed the blue-chips to a 52-week high after better-than-expected manufacturing numbers. Most of the global markets are closed in celebration of May Day as it is one of the biggest bank holidays around the world. May Day is like our “Labor Day” holiday but we don’t recognize it here in the U.S.
Futures were pointing towards a flat open as Wall Street waited for the economic news that was scheduled for release shortly after the bell. Momentum picked up after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said manufacturing was up to 54.8, versus expectations for a reading of 53. Prices Paid came in at 61 which was also higher than forecasts for a print of 59.
Elsewhere, Construction Spending for March showed an increase of 0.1%, compared with a forecast for an increase of 0.5%. Auto Sales are due out at 2pm (EST).
A far as earnings, Shutterfly (SFLY, $30.58, down $0.58) has come down off its highs and is now trading lower after getting a 10% pop at the open despite reporting a quarterly loss. The company beat analysts’ expectations on revenue as sales came in at $91 million versus expectations for $84 million. The suit-and-ties had penciled in a loss of $0.32 a share but the losses were a tad smaller at $10 million, or $0.29 a share.
After the bell, Broadcom (BRCM, $36.65, up $0.05), Chesapeake Energy (CHK, $19.90, up $1.46) and OpenTable (OPEN, $45.22, up $0.50) will all unveil their quarterly results.
As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is up 114 points to 13,328 which is a new 52-week and 4-year high for the blue-chips while the S&P is advancing 16 points to 1,414. The Nasdaq is higher by 33 points and 3,079.
The talking heads are cheering the bulls on but they haven’t said a word about tomorrow’s ADP Employment Change report which is due out at 8:15am. If it is bad, today’s rally could fizzle in a hurry but if it’s better-than-expected, the S&P and Nasdaq could be joining the blue-chips in setting new highs for the year.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: ADP Employment Change report, Broadcom (BRCM earnings, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) earnings, OpenTable (OPEN)
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, April 30th, 2012
12:40pm (EST)
We stayed up late last night to watch the European open after finishing up our chart work. All of our homework suggests the market could make a big move this week, especially on Friday, but the direction is a little unclear. Despite the rally last week, the market is still in a tight 4-week trading range but now we are back at the top.
Futures were slightly higher at 2:30am (EST) when Bloomberg reported breaking news that S&P would downgrade 16 Spanish banks. Dow futures were up 31 points and fell 2 ticks on the news. At 3am, Spain’s GDP numbers came out and they were a train wreck.
The reaction was mild for the first hour of trading but before we hit the rack, Dow futures had been cut in half so we felt there was a chance the market could pullback to start the week.
Spain is now looking at a “bad bank” plan as a way to avoid a bailout. The country is holding talks to segregate troubled property loans into one or more asset management companies which would help struggling lenders. Sounds like another short-term fix to a longer-term problem that isn’t going away anytime soon. Spain is going to default but the market refuses to see it, right now.
Futures turned lower after economic news here at home came in worse-than-expected. Before the bell, Chicago ISM for April fell to 56.2 versus expectations for a reading of 60. Elsewhere, Personal Income rose 0.4% versus forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Personal Spending was up 0.3% which was slightly higher than the expected increase of 0.4%. This wasn’t really “good news” as consumers spent more on gas.
As far as the indexes, the bears are trying to get them below key levels as we head into the second half of trading.
The Dow is down 34 points to 13,194 and below 13,200 while the S&P is slipping 7 points to 1,396 and has given up the 1,400 level. The Nasdaq is off a double-deuce (22points) to 3,046 and is below the crucial 3,050 level.
We have a NEW TRADE we would like you to get into today and it is a CALL option on a stock we fell could explode in the coming months. We have gone out to July to take advantage of a possible 500% return.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and please use limit prices to get the best fills.
Tags: call option buying, Chicago ISM, Nasdaq 100 futures
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, April 30th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“This will be one of the biggest weeks as far as earnings and any negative surprises could have a ripple effect on the indexes as each one of these stocks is a key component with heavy weightings.
Ben Bernanke has a good poker face and he will need to be strong and sturdy in his words, no matter what he says about the economy. If he cracks and fails to mention the Fed’s “backup” plan then the market could suffer as the bulls see no QE3 relief.
The charts look bearish, and following a 3-week trading range, this could be the week that we break out of it. To us, the upside appears more limited than the downside but the old market saying of “don’t fight the Fed” may come into play if Bernanke pulls a rabbit out of his hat. We could see one last retest of the year highs but resistance is going to be hard to overcome and the companies reporting earnings are going to have to come in with some superb numbers.” (4/22/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook 4/23/2012)…
The bears came charging out of the gate to start the week after a downgrade on Spanish debt but better-than-expected earnings trumped disappointing economic news the remainder of the week as the bulls pushed the market to a 3-week high.
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a powerful start for 2012. We offer 2-3 call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and MONTHLY double-digit gains for our Weekly Wrap. Our 2012 Track Record is now an incredible 74-18 (an 80% win rate!) following the 3 winning trades we closed last week.
Our list of winners include +475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Tags: stock options trading advisors
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Option Trades | Comments Off
Friday, April 27th, 2012
1:15pm (EST)
Spain got downgraded 2 notches last night which weighed on futures but they were up before the open this morning as the bulls are stretching resistance.
The Dow came into the week at 13,029; the S&P 500 1,378; the Nasdaq 3,000. If resistance holds, it appears the market could be in an extended 4-week trading range as the bulls and bears continue to battle to establish the next TREND.
Despite the bullish week, we were able to close put options on LinkedIn (LNKD, $106.22, up $0.98) for a gain of nearly 70% and 33% on a bearish S&P Spiders (SPY, $140.34, up $0.18) option trade. Today, we closed a huge winner as our Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $51.90, down $17.56) May 50 puts (DECK120519P00050000, $1.50, up $1.30) returned our subscribers 180%! We were out at $1.40 after getting in at 50 cents and the puts have traded to a high of $1.80 today.
The beauty of options is that this trade was down 60% as we headed into earnings last night but we did our research and knew the company would disappoint Wall Street with their quarterly numbers. Although we may have hit the register a little early, it’s hard to feel bad with a return of 180%. Plus, some of the current trades are showing strong gains so we expect to be busy next week.
This brings our Track Record for 2012 to 75-18 which is an 80% win rate.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 35 points to 13,150 while the S&P 500 is higher by 2 points to 1,401. The Nasdaq is advancing 10 points to 3,060.
We would love to see a close below Dow 13,200; S&P 1,400; and Nasdaq 3,050, obviously, which we said should hold as resistance.
As we do our chart work over the weekend, we will try to find the clues that will give us the next possible trend direction and there is one more trading day for April. May is normally a bearish month and the problems from overseas still loom. We have called for this back test to the top but we are still positioned for a downside move.
We will look at some call options over the weekend in case there is a breakout but our last 13 CLOSED trade recommendations have been put options. We made a side note in early April for our 2012 portfolio and marked it “Trend Change?” as we noticed we were starting to recommend put options after going heavy on call options all year long.
So far, the break below the uptrend line has been rewarding as our subscribers have closed 2 triple-digit winners, another 3 trades that have returned 70% and another trade for a 50% return. The rest of the trades range in profit from 12% to 33% so the register has been ringing all month long despite a 4-week trading range.
We have started establishing our next “batch” of trades and if we are right about the market’s next move, we could have many more triple-digit winners.
If you are not in the game, we continue to tell investors this is one of the BEST environments we have seen in a couple of years to trade options. For those of you who haven’t signed up with us, hop on the bus, Gus!
We have action to take on 2 more trades before we roll so let’s go check the Members Area.
We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap so until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Tags: DECK put options, LNKD put o[tions, market trend change, Momentum stocks
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Trade Update, Trading Tips | Comments Off
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Bear Struggling to Hold Losses
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012
2:00pm (EST)
The market is mixed as we head into the final few hours of trading. The bears got a nice jump at the bell following worse-than-expected data from the ADP Employment Change report which showed only 119,000 private-sector jobs were added in April. Wall Street was looking for a print of at least 170,000 job additions.
Elsewhere, Factory Orders also were slightly ahead of expectations, coming in at 1.5% for March, versus expectations for a 1.6% drop.
Thursday is a heavy day for the market as the Challenger Jobs Cuts will set the tone and comes out at 7:30am (EST). Initial and Continuing Claims are due out an hour before the bell along with the latest Productivity and Unit Labor Costs numbers. At 10am, the ISM Services report is due out.
Earnings for Thursday include: Bebe Stores (BEBE, $8.46, up $0.52), First Solar (FSLR, $18.09, down $0.33), General Motors (GM, $22.93, down $0.38), Liquidity Services (LQDT, $55.49, up $2.52), MGM Resorts (MGM, $13.73, up $0.44), Public Storage (PSA, $145.27, up $0.23) and Trimble Navigation (TRMB, $54,15, up $0.20).
As we head to press, here is how we look.
The Dow is down 24 points to 13,255 while the S&P is lower by 5 points to 1,400. The Nasdaq is up 4 points to 3,054.
Some of our current trades are doing well today so let’s go check on them as well.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Challenger Jobs Cuts, MGM, MGM Resorts earnings, momentum options, Momentum stocks
Posted in Earnings, Economic News, Market Commentary | Comments Off